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Jesse Damiani

@jessedamiani.bsky.social
5.2K followers 40 following 254 posts

Foresight x Forecasting for Polycrisis. I write realitystudies.co & host the Urgent Futures Podcast @urgentfutures.bsky.social. Comms @metaculus.com. Adjunct Prof, NYU. Bylines: Flash Art, Forbes, NBC News, The Verge, WIRED

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Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they) @doctorvive.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
The Prime Minister of Spain: “This climate emergency is exceeding every threshold and scale that scientists have long warned all of Spain and Europe about.” This is the realistic climate discourse the world needs. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/w...
"These are difficult hours," Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said
Monday afternoon during a news conference in Castellón, on Spain's eastern coast, where a new fire raged and forced thousands of new evacuations.
In the face of what his government has called the largest fires in the country's history, and after a summer of record-breaking heat waves, he called for a national pact with all Spain's political parties to work together to prevent blazes that he attributed to climate change.
"This climate emergency is exceeding every threshold and scale that scientists have long warned all of Spain and Europe about," he said.
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Such a widespread and extreme heatwave has no previously recorded analogs at all in the USA during March. Almost 1/3 of US weather stations set new monthly records. In no previous March did more than 10% of stations simultaneously set a record. 11/
Same as the previous image, but only showing record fractions for March.
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Evan Berry @ecothought.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
It’s a wonky term, but “polycrisis” helps us remember that climate change, economic injustice, and far right reactionary politics are not separate, nor are they really analogies or metaphors for one another.
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Janel Comeau 🍁 @verybadllama.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
every mushroom foraging guidebook: This is Woodland Pot Roast, a tasty little mushroom that adds a delightful flavour to soups and stews. Note that it is often mistaken for Satan’s Fistula, a mushroom that erases the last 9 generations of your family from God’s ledgers.
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Jason Dove Mark @jasondovemark.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Powerful words: "Spring is billions of birds quieter than a century ago, and there’s no sign that these losses will slow. When a bird goes extinct, a language goes with it; bells fall silent without their ringers. It’s not enough to love the song but forget the singers." thewalrus.ca/billions-of-...
thewalrus.ca
Billions of Birds Have Vanished in a Generation | The Walrus
To save them, we need to look and listen
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Jesse Damiani @jessedamiani.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
This story isn’t as flashy as war, but it’s (arguably) more consequential. The collapse of the AMOC would radically transform Earth—and not to our benefit.
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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 17/04/2026
"SpaceX bought 1,279 Cybertrucks in Q4 2025, representing over 18% of Tesla’s total US sales during the quarter. That’s not fleet expansion—that’s a bailout wearing corporate camouflage" www.gadgetreview.com/spacex-bough...
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Lum @brokentoys.social · 13/04/2026
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Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
“Acts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population are prohibited.” Geneva Convention Additional Protocol I and Department of Defense Law of War Manual, § 5.2.2
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Kashana @kashana.blacksky.app · 07/04/2026
Armageddon is terrible, but our only other option was diversity trainings at work.
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
‘Research… finds that if fertiliser prices rise from roughly $300–$350 a tonne to around $900–$1,000 and remain elevated, global food prices could increase by 60 to 100 per cent, pushing up to 100mn additional people into undernourishment’ ☹️ www.ft.com/content/27e0...
ft.com
The global food crisis unleashed by the war
From Minnesota to Punjab, fertiliser costs are up and harvests are set to be hit
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
1/ Why is atmospheric CO₂ accelerating faster than fossil fuel emissions are growing? The answer is buried in the data, and it's more worrying than most people realise. A thread. 🧵👇
Line chart showing atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory from 1958 to 2024. A light blue sawtooth line shows raw monthly values, reflecting the seasonal cycle of plant growth. A dark blue smooth line shows the seasonally adjusted record, rising from 315 ppm in 1958 to over 426 ppm in 2024. 

A dashed red curve shows the super-exponential fit, with the instantaneous growth rate rising from 0.27%/yr in 1960 to 0.64%/yr in 2024, more than doubling over the period of the record.
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
may this be the beginning of something
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John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
This is my favorite climate change chart. Japanese monks, aristocrats, and emperors kept meticulous records of cherry blossom festivals for 1,200 years and accidentally built the world's longest climate dataset.
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Goldstein (still not a pseudonym) @goldstein.latinsky.app · 26/03/2026
Woman in Cambridge, MD hired some contractors and then called ICE on them just before they finished so she wouldn't have to pay them the $10k she owes them. She even provides ICE a ladder to help them get the contractors.
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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 25/03/2026
Just an extremely important piece from @emorwee.bsky.social in the Heated newsletter here. Oil prices have *ALWAYS* been fantastical and absurd, because it never factors in the shocking costs of what happens when you use it heated.world/p/the-true-p...
The war in Iran has everyone talking about the price of oil. But that number only reflects a small fraction of what oil actually costs.

While talking heads focus on oil's market price—shaped by supply disruptions, geopolitical risk, and expectations about future availability—millions are bearing the rest of the bill in ways that never show up at the pump: in the smoke and terror of war, in the heat and floods of a destabilized climate, and in the explosions and toxic fallout that come with living near oil infrastructure.

Support indy climate journalism

The flooding in Hawaii this weekend offers one of the clearest examples. Back-to-back Kona storms unleashed what Governor Josh Green called “the largest flood that we’ve had in Hawaii in 20 years,” submerging roads, destroying homes, and forcing hundreds of rescues across the islands. On the ground, officials described scenes of near-total devastation—families returning to find their homes flooded out, entire communities cut off, and more than 200 people pulled from rising water.Scientists have been warning for years that excessive fossil fuel burning will cause more catastrophic floods like this. That’s because fossil fuels release greenhouse gases, which warm the atmosphere, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. That makes extreme rainfall more intense.

But these impacts never factor into the price of a barrel of oil. They’re pushed onto everyone else—through disaster cleanup, insurance losses, and taxpayer-funded relief. In Hawaii, the damage is already estimated to exceed $1 billion, with state officials asking the federal government to cover up to 90 percent of the recovery costs. Whether that aid comes through or not, the bill is being paid by the public, not the industry whose emissions made disasters like this more likely.
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Perry Grossman @realperrygrossman.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
"“This is not a war for security. It’s a war for the political economy of fossil fuels – and the people paying the price are Iranian civilians and working‑class communities around the world.”
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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 20/03/2026
Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)
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Jason Hickel @jasonhickel.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
I'm excited to announce this new paper we have in Nature Climate Change, establishing the core principles of a post-growth climate mitigation scenario that can achieve rapid decarbonization and high well-being. nature.com/articles/s41...
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Jesse Damiani @jessedamiani.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
You really need to read this. via The Honest Sorcerer on Substack: open.substack.com/pub/thehones...
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Jesse Damiani @jessedamiani.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Garbage move.
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G. Willow Wilson @gwillow.me · 14/03/2026
I realize that to people outside the PNW this is just an interesting news item, but if you're in the PNW, where tracking orca pods is a local religion, this is basically like being visited by alien gods
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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
On today’s episode of Cartoonishly Overt Sign We’re the Baddies: they’re taking the olive branch off the dime because it presents peace
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Jesse Damiani @jessedamiani.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
We are the mightiest military in the WOORRRLLLD *fails to plan for most obvious tactic possible*
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Assigned Media @assignedmedia.org · 12/03/2026
@rikiwilchins.bsky.social 2026 Mar 11 Advocate While complaining about the costs associated with trans servicemembers transitioning, study shows Pentagon under free-spending SecDef Hegseth spends more on lobster in 1 month than it does on trans servicemembers in 1 year.
advocate.com
Pentagon spent more on lobster in one month than it did on trans health care all year
Under Pete Hegseth's leadership, the Defense Department spent more than $90 billion in September alone.
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Te Pūnaha Matatini @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
"We have to learn to operate under extreme levels of uncertainty." Te Pūnaha Matatini Principal Investigator @jdtonkin.bsky.social joined @jessedamiani.bsky.social on @urgentfutures.bsky.social to discuss his pivot toward solutions for biodiversity loss 🧪 www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTv7...
youtube.com
Biodiversity on the Brink: Ecological Rhythms & Human Urgency - Jonathan Tonkin | RR #20
YouTube video by Jesse Damiani
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Dane Owens @owendanes.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Pretty crazy how important the blockade of a trade route is right now
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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 08/03/2026
Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...
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News Eye @newseye.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
NEW: Watch this report just in from CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen. It is raining oil in Tehran this morning. A city of 10 million is being actively poisoned. (🎥 CNN)
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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Hitting desalination plants is so bad. Not just evil but strategically incomprehensible. Without desalination 75% of the entire population of the Middle East will be refugees. Israel and Kuwait depend on desalination for 90% of their water and other Middle East states aren’t far behind.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Had to doublecheck the date on this
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Katelyn Burns @katelynburns.com · 07/03/2026
Imagine all the cool, fast trains we could have with the billions we spend on bombs.
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Prof Bill McGuire @profbillmcguire.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
These warnings about food security are happening almost weekly now But does anyone think the government is taking a blind bit of notice The UKs 3 worst harvests have been in the last 5 years By 2050, the number of calories per head globally could be halved www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
UK must stockpile food in readiness for climate shocks or war, expert warns
Prof Tim Lang says country produces far less food than it needs to feed population and is particularly vulnerable
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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Quite an opening paragraph.
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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 06/03/2026
Polymarket pulled nuclear detonation markets after public backlash. There's a right way to forecast existential risks and a wrong way. The right way: aggregate judgment for reliable foresight. The wrong way: let anonymous wallets profit from mass death--or worse, corrupt the decisions themselves.
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 04/03/2026
Today on Volts: for the next few decades, we'll be in the "mid-transition," with clean energy systems growing as FF systems decline. Those FF systems will not decline smoothly -- there will be thresholds, "cliffs," where they suddenly crumble -- so maybe we should, I dunno, plan for it?
volts.wtf
The fate of fossil fuel systems in the "mid-transition"
I talk with Emily Grubert about the hidden dangers of letting the free market manage the decline of our legacy energy infrastructure.
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Ryan Teague Beckwith @ryanbeckwith.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Congratulations to 2028 Democratic National Convention keynote speaker Ben Affleck www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/04/n...
bostonglobe.com
RFK Jr. wants Dunkin’ to prove drinking its iced coffee is safe - The Boston Globe
The warning comes as Kennedy is leaning heavily into his agenda to improve American diets.
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Metaculus @metaculus.com · 02/03/2026
Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.
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Claire Willett @clairewillett.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
holy fuck holy fuck holy FUCK
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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
STUDY: Despite conventional wisdom that increases in vehicle fuel efficiency results in decreased gasoline consumption, Jevons’ Paradox holds. For every 1 mile per gallon of increased fuel efficiency there’s an associated 1.2 mile increase in vehicle miles travelled. Better cars = higher emissions.
sciencedirect.com
Vehicle fuel economy and vehicle miles traveled: An empirical investigation of Jevon’s Paradox
There has been, in recent decades, a concerted effort to promote energy efficiency as a means to reduce energy consumption. The general thesis is that…
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John Dickerson @jdickerson.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
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Virginia Gewin @virginiagewin.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
“I might have written 18 books over the past four decades, but it’s really all just one book on fairness, justice and equity,” @drrobertbullard.bsky.social, the father of environmental justice. His nature.com interview ends the Changemakers Q&A series, started by @kendallsciwrite.bsky.social.
nature.com
I will continue the fight for environmental justice in Black communities
Nicknamed the father of environmental justice, Robert Bullard argues that researchers in the field have more reason than ever to back up their work with action.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Cover of The Lancet: @thelancet.com www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I first thought "there aren't words" when I first saw this story. but there are
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Jesse Damiani @jessedamiani.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Quite a flex to host Brendan “We Can Do This the Easy Way or the Hard Way” Carr as the headline speaker for your ‘Restoring Trust in Media’ conference…
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