Forecasters expect the money to reach charities much slower than the headlines suggest. Here's the map behind the number, and how you can build your own on Radiant, Metaculus’ visual mapping tool.

Crystal balls give way to LLMs

Main Takeaways

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

Forecasting the future of the US workforce as AI advances

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

The Labor Automation Tournament has a Comment Prize pool of $5,000, distributed among the best 8 comments on its forecasting questions. The deadline is September 1.

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

Real-time forecasts from our global forecasting community on the future of the US workforce as AI advances.

The Animal Futures Tournament is on Metaculus. Forecast decision-relevant questions on farmed animal welfare, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, AI, and animal futures.

Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community on the 2026 US midterm elections.

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

Prediction markets and AI forecasting collide as platforms like Metaculus and ForeNex challenge gambling-driven models with data, transparency and human-machine intelligence.

Bettors are using death threats to try to get The Times of Israel's military correspondent to change his report on a missile impact in central Israel. This is his alarming account

Metaculus FutureEval measures AI's ability to predict future outcomes. Compare AI models against human pro forecasters on real-world forecasting questions.

Political scientists warn that US democracy is under threat. Do forecasters expect US democracy to erode?

An AI model just cracked the top 10 in a global prediction contest, signaling how machines are reshaping the future of forecasting.