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Jonathan Tonkin

@jdtonkin.bsky.social
5.4K followers 1.8K following 993 posts

Professor of ecology at UCNZ | Using science to anticipate where our living world is headed | Writing Predirections newsletter on biodiversity, climate & water → predirections.substack.com | tonkinlab.org

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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 7h
The future doesn’t give the present back What if the things we're trying to create for the future are also things we can choose to value and experience now? We spend so much time waiting for the next version of our lives that we forget we're already living the part we'll one day miss. New post 👇
predirections.substack.com
The future doesn’t give the present back
What if the things we're trying to create for the future are also things we can choose to value and experience now?
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
GOOD NEWS: Jeff Bezos is committing 1/20th of the price of his superyacht to protect the Pacific Ocean. 🤦‍♂️
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
A well-written paper should let you skim just the first sentence of every paragraph and reconstruct most of its argument. Here's what that looks like in practice: Full post on how a 5-pass framework for reading scientific papers: predirections.substack.com/p/how-i-read...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Most scientists don't read papers front to back. After twenty years and thousands of papers, here's the system I use to get the gist of any paper in 20 minutes or less.
predirections.substack.com
How I read a scientific paper in 20 minutes
A five-pass system for deciding what deserves deeper attention
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Most scientists don't read papers front to back. After twenty years and thousands of papers, here's the system I use to get the gist of any paper in 20 minutes or less.
predirections.substack.com
How I read a scientific paper in 20 minutes
A five-pass system for deciding what deserves deeper attention
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Resilience doesn't come from optimising everything for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can't predict.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I can’t predict the environment my kids will inherit. None of us can. But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I can’t predict the environment my kids will inherit. None of us can. But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
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Garry Peterson @resiliencesci.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New website for IPBES Nature Futures Framework www.naturefuturesframework.org "A flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth"
naturefuturesframework.org
Nature Futures Framework - Stockholm Resilience Centre
Advances the understanding of complex social-ecological systems with new insights into ecosystem management practices and long-term sustainability
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Clear-cut forestry is just not a good strategy. It’s another example of taking gains now and overlooking the costs for the future. Recovery is slow. And we just don’t have the time for slow recovery right now. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed. If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning. Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's. New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
predirections.substack.com
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
If you were also uneasy about the news of a swarm of agents solving the Navier-Stokes problem, it’s worth giving this piece a read.
mathandai.org
Declaration — Math and AI
Read the declaration and add your name.
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Joachim Mergeay @jmergeay.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Extinction debt makes policy action even slower to respond to biodiversity threats. The silver lining is that tools exist to detect it at various levels (genetic debt within populations, species richness debt) meaning we can reverse trends before costs to act are huge.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed. If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning. Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's. New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
predirections.substack.com
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Reservoirs on the Colorado River have dropped to their lowest levels since they were built. Let that sink in for a second before you scroll past it.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises. But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways. They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms. What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
predirections.substack.com
Rivers run on insurance. This summer tested it.
The current heatwave and drought are doing more than drying up the Rhine and Danube. They may also be undermining their resilience to future events. The good news is that insurance can be rebuilt.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises. But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways. They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms. What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
predirections.substack.com
Rivers run on insurance. This summer tested it.
The current heatwave and drought are doing more than drying up the Rhine and Danube. They may also be undermining their resilience to future events. The good news is that insurance can be rebuilt.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I recall talking with my uni friends about the ecosystems we wanted to visit before it was too late—our bucket list of endangered ecosystems. Top of my list was the Great Barrier Reef. predirections.substack.com/p/the-great-...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this. For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late. In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
predirections.substack.com
The Great Barrier Reef’s breaking point
Could this year’s Super El Niño be the one it can’t recover from?
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this. For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late. In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
predirections.substack.com
The Great Barrier Reef’s breaking point
Could this year’s Super El Niño be the one it can’t recover from?
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I've spent my career studying rivers and biodiversity — work that's shaped how I think about time, risk, and long-term decision-making well beyond ecology itself.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Nature handles time and risk very differently to how we do. This mismatch matters more than we tend to think. Here’s a roundup of ten pieces on why. predirections.substack.com/p/ten-pieces...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Angus McIntosh and Helen Warburton have 4 PhD scholarships in freshwater ecology available at University of Canterbury, NZ. Invasive aquatic plants in high-country springs, and native fish, springs, and birds in braided rivers
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Déjà vu? This paper of ours in 2019 could be describing what’s happening across Europe right now. (See the highlighted text.) www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Natural rivers host a wide diversity of habitats, which support diverse assemblages of species. Narrow a river and you remove habitats and a river ecosystem's ability to bounce back following disturbance. From our paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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Marianne Alleyne @cotesia.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
My Department at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign invites applications from entomologists with research portfolios in which INSECT BIODIVERSITY LOSS is a key element (at the assistant professor level). illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...
Picture of a green tree-lined quad at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, with Foellinger Hall in the background. Skies are often this blue.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Grasslands & wetlands are being converted to agriculture nearly 4X faster than forests. Most people don’t realise these ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Add mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass & kelp forests, & you’ve got carbon storage powerhouses. Wrote about why they deserve more attention 👇
predirections.substack.com
The ecosystems that store more carbon than you think
Grasslands and wetlands are carbon storage powerhouses, but they're being converted to agriculture at nearly four times the rate of forests.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Grasslands & wetlands are being converted to agriculture nearly 4X faster than forests. Most people don’t realise these ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Add mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass & kelp forests, & you’ve got carbon storage powerhouses. Wrote about why they deserve more attention 👇
predirections.substack.com
The ecosystems that store more carbon than you think
Grasslands and wetlands are carbon storage powerhouses, but they're being converted to agriculture at nearly four times the rate of forests.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Just like planting trees whose shade you’ll never sit under, sometimes the most useful data is collected by someone who’ll never see what it’s used for. predirections.substack.com/p/the-most-i...
predirections.substack.com
The most important discoveries can take decades — or a millennium
From Kyoto's cherry blossoms to the Keeling Curve, the power of thinking beyond a single lifetime
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Some of the most important things we know about our changing planet come from records nobody built to detect it — a merchant counting river ice breakup in 1693, priests recording a god's footprint since 1443, diaries about flower-viewing parties.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
19 months ago, one of my students submitted a manuscript for review. It's now in round two, and we’ve still not got the second round reviews back. Nothing about the underlying science has changed in that time. This isn't unusual — peer review is overburdened across the board, and has been for years.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
"Flash droughts" are emerging as a new threat under warming. These rapidly occurring dry periods emerge from intense heat and low humidity ➡️ rapidly suck moisture out of the landscape, creating a “hyper-flammable” state ➡️ fire spreads faster, lasts longer and grows larger than other wildfires.
theconversation.com
Flash droughts pull ‘alarming’ amounts of moisture from the landscape and intensify wildfires: new research
We have to stop thinking of droughts simply as a static state of low moisture. Rapid drought changes can send fire risk soaring.
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paulusthewoodgnome @paulusthewoodgnome.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
England received only 7% of the long-term average rainfall for July. Southern England, just 1%. Factoid: There has been a weather station in Kew Gardens for 155 years. This July was the first month ever to record 0mm of rain. Tomorrow, London will again hit 30C+ www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
July set to be driest on record for England and Wales after relentless heatwaves
Climate scientist urges better planning as southern England had just 1% of long-term average rainfall last month
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Nothing to see here… just a man and his pig out for a stroll on the beach.
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Oca sapiens @ocasapiens.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
#invasivespecies #biodiversity Important paper for NGOs as well, imo. "Using a new global database of standardized impact measures, we calculated average impact severity per country & found that it is higher in the Global South despite more than twice as many reports in the Global North."
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Annie Leymarie @annieleymarie.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
“Hosepipe ban exemptions for golf courses & private school sports pitches symbolise everything wrong with our water system. How can it be right that a private school can use [so much] water to keep the grass green in the middle of the summer holidays, but children cannot play in paddling pools?"
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Super interesting
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
New in @science.org from @hannoseebens.bsky.social and colleagues: invasive species impacts are actually more severe in the Global South, not the North — we'd been inferring severity from report counts, which was misleading. I wrote a short summary here: predirections.substack.com/p/invasive-s...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
New in @science.org from @hannoseebens.bsky.social and colleagues: invasive species impacts are actually more severe in the Global South, not the North — we'd been inferring severity from report counts, which was misleading. I wrote a short summary here: predirections.substack.com/p/invasive-s...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
By giving floodwaters somewhere to go, floodplains reduce pressure on the rest of the system. What previously seemed unnecessary is suddenly critical. predirections.substack.com/p/built-to-f...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
It's World Nature Conservation Day. Here's a few thoughts why biodiversity is important. predirections.substack.com/p/diversity-...
predirections.substack.com
Diversity is the spice of life
Why it’s so important to prioritise diversity in all its forms for resilient ecosystems
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Go help some rivers! They’re worth it — trust me.
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Martin Dovciak🌳🌱🌻 @dovciak-lab.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
🌎🌐🍁 New paper! Our study, led by Dr. Joanna Lumsden-Pinto, shows how forest structure & understory plant communities in Long Island's pine barrens change with time since last fire to help us understand long-term wildfire effects. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... #ForestEcology #FireEcology
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
This is it! Hopefully some lessons will be learned from these events. In NZ, we still see massive new pine plantations -- even in places that have burned multiple times in recent years (e.g. Christchurch).
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I might retire for a bit.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Can't beat a clear winter’s day in Christchurch.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Professional sport gets most of the attention, but there's something wonderful about a city opening its stadium for a local club final and making it free for everyone. A great reminder that community sport still matters. The atmosphere was incredible and it came down to the last few moments.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
It’s hard to fathom how much of the world is burning right now. Every wildfire is a reminder that the way we and ecosystems will experience climate change is via extreme events not changes in average conditions.
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
That’s apocalyptic! We’re seeing too many of these images worldwide. Time for action.
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François-Nicolas Robinne @fnrobinne.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
"#resilience requires capacity that appears unnecessary most of the time.# "Built to #flood" by @jdtonkin.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/predirec...
open.substack.com
Built to flood
Why the best systems are built to flood
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