Sign in

Jeff Carter

@jeffcarter.bsky.social
607 followers 479 following 78 posts

Researches and professes about international relations. “An incredibly average scholar.” Co-director of the Correlates of War project. Probably thinking about music, food, or the dog.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 25/09/2026
I have a back-burner project that examines whether or not the relationship between women's labor force participation and women's descriptive political representation is causal, focusing on the US. Short answer is: seems unlikely. Posting the working paper, to keep it half out of the file drawer.
First page of a working paper.

Did Rosie the Riveter Send Ms. Smith to Washington?

Daniel Pemstein
Department of Political Science & Public Policy
North Dakota State University
September 25, 2026

Abstract
Scholars have long argued that women’s labor force participation increases their descriptive representation. Labor participation plausibly affects both demand- (e.g., voter norms) and supply-side (e.g., women in political feeder professions) determinants of descriptive representation. While findings are mixed, on balance, women’s labor
force participation and descriptive political representation correlate, at least in crossnational panel studies. But establishing a causal connection between labor participation and descriptive representation is difficult. The two variables are likely endogenous and relationships between them are almost certainly confounded. I take advantage of a
plausibly exogenous instrument for labor participation—county-level variation in U.S. World War II casualties that differentially increased women’s work-force participation across localities—to test whether women’s labor participation causes descriptive
representation.

WORKING PAPER
Please check with the author for an updated version before citing.

I would like to thank Andreas Ferrara, who generously shared WWII draftee casualty data. This work used resources of the Center for Computationally Assisted Science and Technology (CCAST) at North Dakota State University, which were made possible in part by NSF MRI Award No. 2019077.
131
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
IR Book of the Week! "Taming the Careerists" by Minju Kim. When it comes to US foreign policy, we focus a lot on Presidents, top-level diplomats, and the close advisers to both. But US foreign policy is also dramatically (and surprisingly, as Kim shows) influenced by career bureaucrats.
1199
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Brian J. Phillips @brianjphillips.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Coming soon. Featuring an amazing group of authors - check out the table of contents. And a 20% discount when you pre-order with code GLR BD8 www.bloomsbury.com/what-do-we-k...
163
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
We’re aware that our website is currently down, and we hope to have it restored in a few days. Sorry for the interruption!
122
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Kolby Hanson @kolbyhanson.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Superstar @wesleyanuniversity.bsky.social undergrad Angelina Kunitskaia pitched me this project as a first-year after reading Tomz & Weeks (2013) in my Intro IR class. Can media framing of a war shape the opinions of third-party publics without altering any facts or endorsements? A resounding YES.
121
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
There's not a scholar better suited for this position than @profpaulpoast.bsky.social.
120
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
I officially started an important new research project this summer: becoming a data host for the Correlates of War! Specifically, I am now the curator for the COW data on interstate, intrastate, and extrastate wars.
3394
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Sean Ehrlich @seandehrlich.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Florida State University’s political science department is hiring this year at the junior level in American Politics and Comparative Politics. Applicants for both jobs should have strong substantive and quant methods skills but otherwise the fields are open. The postings should be on ejobs soon.
13731
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Selection effects can go both ways (for taxi drivers as well as the rest of us) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/28/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Selection effects can go both ways (for taxi drivers as well as the rest of us) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
031
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Angus Johnston @angus.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
"Do the thing you can do instead of beating yourself up over not doing the thing you're not doing" is honestly life-changing, even life-saving, advice.
6069662176
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
We typically think of deterrence as cold and calculating. In a new JCR with @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social's Pomeroy & Rathbun, we explore the psychology of deterrence thinking, showing it relies on intuition instead. When we shoot, we shoot from the hip. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
1258
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Rachel Porter @rachelporter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
📢 JOB ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 Our department is hiring an Assistant Professor of Quantitative Political Science. We seek a scholar in AP, CP, PE, or IR who applies frontier methods of statistics and data science to substantive questions in their area of expertise. apply.interfolio.com/189477
14554
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Come work with me and Rachel and our great colleagues here at Notre Dame!
0239
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
to whom the Directors and the field at large are deeply grateful for their long, faithful service to COW's mission. So to our new Emeritus Data Hosts and, in advance, to our new Data Host, thank you. (2/2)
042
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
COW is excited to announce that @profpaulpoast.bsky.social of the University of Chicago is the new Data Host for our War Data, succeeding newly-minted Emeritus Data Hosts Meredith Sarkees, Frank Wayman, and Jeffrey Dixon, (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/news/paul-po...
correlatesofwar.org
Paul Poast succeeds Wayman, Sarkees, Dixon as COW War Data Host – The Correlates of War Project
The Correlates of War Project is pleased to announce that Paul Poast of the University of Chicago is the new Data Host for COW’s War Data, including Interstate, Intrastate, and Extrastate wars.
1154
Reposted by Jeff Carter
McSweeney's @mcsweeneys.net · 26/06/2026
"The last building that was acceptable and necessary (my house) was completed four months ago, when I moved here. Yet ever since, the township keeps approving new housing projects. It’s as if our officials don’t consider my preferences for how many people should live in this town."
buff.ly
To Solve the Housing Crisis, We Simply Need to Build More Homes (Just Not in My Town)
“The last new building that was acceptable and necessary (my house) was completed four months ago, right when I moved here. Yet ever since, the township keep...
39624
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
New NMC/CINC data is now available: correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/na...
correlatesofwar.org
National Material Capabilities (v7.0) – The Correlates of War Project
In any paper or publication that use this data set, users are asked to give the version number and cite an article of record for the data set as follows:
030
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
We're also pleased to announce that, beginning with version 8, NMC's new Data Host will be @johnchin.bsky.social. Welcome to the team, John! correlatesofwar.org/news/nmc-dat...
correlatesofwar.org
(NMC) Data v7 Available, New Data Host – The Correlates of War Project
This is the final update from longtime NMC hosts Michael Greig and Andrew Enterline, to whom COW and the discipline are grateful for years of work that has ensured reliable access to the CINC scores so ubiquitous in the study of war and peace. Michael and Andrew will each become Data Host Emeritus (about which more soon).
142
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Version 7 of COW's National Military Capabilities (NMC) Data is now available, taking the data up to 2022, thanks to the tireless and widely appreciated efforts of longtime Data Hosts Michael Greig and Andrew Enterline... (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/na...
correlatesofwar.org
National Material Capabilities (v7.0) – The Correlates of War Project
In any paper or publication that use this data set, users are asked to give the version number and cite an article of record for the data set as follows:
175
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Update to the @correlatesofwar.bsky.social Arms Technology Data—now with ballistic missiles!—and more to come soon...
011
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Update to the COW Arms Technology Data (@correlatesofwar.bsky.social's newest data set) is now live.
001
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
...with a new article of record at the Journal of Conflict Resolution by Data Hosts Jacob Gerner Hariri and Asger Mose Wingender. (2/2) doi.org/10.1177/0022...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
031
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
New version (1.1) of the COW Arms Technology Data are now available... (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/news/arms-te...
correlatesofwar.org
Arms Technology Data (v1.1) available – The Correlates of War Project
101
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
🚨 Now out in @bjpols.bsky.social w @busbyj2.bsky.social @jordantama.bsky.social @ckafura.bsky.social: Do American foreign policy elites know what the public wants? Partnering with @global-affairs.bsky.social, we show that elites systematically misread the room 🧵 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
27728
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Don’t. Print. Lies. In. The. Newspaper. “Guns vs. Butter” and rich countries with global reserve currencies edition. bsky.app/profile/mcop...
0132
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The New York Times has an article today on Europe facing a "guns vs. butter" problem (www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/w...). A reminder that governments have other options to finance military spending. Others have made the same point, but here's some self-promotion: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...)
journals.sagepub.com
Guns, Butter, and Growth: The Consequences of Military Spending Reconsidered - Jeff Carter, Heather L. Ondercin, Glenn Palmer, 2021
How does increasing military spending affect social spending and economic growth? We argue leaders vary in their preferences over how to pay for military spendi...
060
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
One of the Trump admin’s explanations for striking Iran—preemption of an imminent attack—put me in mind of my article w/@yujimasumura.bsky.social at @ajpseditor.bsky.social, which examines when govts use the preemption casus belli and how publics react. (1/x) doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
1136
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
A few more thoughts. USFP/natsec usually works from bottom up, even for prez-directed policies. Bureaucrats, mid-levels, political appointees work the problem, then top people bless it. Diplomacy (JCPOA) works like this. Military planning can move faster w/ prior plans, but similar. 1/
320872
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
goodauthority.org
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him?
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders aren’t reliable constraints on Trump’s foreign policy decisions.
16644239
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
From the introduction of McGillivray and Smith (2008, page 4):
Leader specifi c punishments enable the citizens of a nation to avoid punishment by simply replacing their leader if she cheats. Whether the citizens choose to do so, however, depends upon domestic political institutions and in particular how these institutions shape the cost of replacing a leader. If the value of restored cooperation exceeds the cost of leader replacement, then the citizens depose their leader if she cheats. Under institutional arrangements that make it diffi cult to replace leaders, however, the benefi ts of restored cooperation are too small to justify the high cost of leader replacement.
000
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 14/01/2026
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers “We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.” (Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic
Argentina

Adam Scharpf
Christian Gläßel

Abstract: Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.
21892376
Reposted by Jeff Carter
David Simon @audacityofdespair.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Here is a thread about a true police-shooting incident that I'm going to use to pose a fun little thought problem for anyone anywhere who think there ia a single justifiable reason to ever allow a law enforcement officer to use force on a citizen and remain anonymous. From my back pages:
10673272
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
"Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes" by Andi Zhou, Hein Goemans, and Michael Weintraub. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
0102
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Victor Gay @victorgayeco.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? Thrilled to have a new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social w/ @mikealbertus.bsky.social showing that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution. 👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000... 🧵1/7
1338
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Wrote up this thread for @goodauth.bsky.social (thanks as always to the amazing editorial team!). goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
goodauthority.org
What happens now in Venezuela – and the world?
What happens now in Venezuela – and the world? Trump’s no-guardrails foreign policy raises big questions about the global order, not just about who will run Venezuela.
06228
Reposted by Jeff Carter
derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
it's crazy that 500 years ago, you would see the ruler of your country maybe once in your life and hear whispers that they're the Sun God, but now with social media, you get to see on a daily basis that they're the most unhinged, idiotic, and unhappy person you know
4771561035
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Victor Gay @victorgayeco.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution. In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789) 👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc.... 👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... 🧵1/6
27126
Reposted by Jeff Carter
NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
If the government won't bail out my crypto losses, I'm going to become an even bigger libertarian.
121208144
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 16/11/2025
👇 Not only is this true, it is literally the only non-revolutionary path to a political transition. There is no option for a regime change where your only allies are the people who always shared your values!
1646
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Danielle Graves Williamson @daniellecgw.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year! Let's start with a student describing her segregated school: "The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education" The twist? The student is white, and her school is private. A JMP 🧵 -->
515677
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
(This also reminds us of the need to introduce some more consistent version-numbering rules, which we'll do in the not-too-distant future.)
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie is saying fix this .
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is saying fix this .
042
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
We've introduced a minor update to COW's State System Membership Data, updating the coverage through 2024 and making available "blank" dyad-year and directed dyad-year data sets, in addition to the traditional state-year data. correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/st...
correlatesofwar.org
State System Membership (v2024) – The Correlates of War Project
032
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Nick Valentino @nickvalentino.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/... The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
electionstudies.org
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
7206100
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Shana Gadarian @sgadarian.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
New data, data nerds!
0154
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
He also made Bob Lighthizer his Deputy USTR & created incredible new forms of protectionism ("voluntary export restraints") during a trade war with 🇯🇵 that Trump has used as his model for how to approach trade with 🇨🇳 today. Please, let's stop it with the Reagan was a Paladin of Free Trade stuff.
99217
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Jeremy Littau @jeremylittau.com · 18/10/2025
Student media rules. They are lapping a lot of the spineless media orgs this year and showing how solidarity is the way.
1049891235
Reposted by Jeff Carter
eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
If you aren't failing you aren't trying. Grad students and new faculty: the most prolific scholars are also the most prolific at getting rejected. Rejections suck but they are a big part of the publication process.
14211
Reposted by Jeff Carter
APSA Religion and Politics Section @apsareligion.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Call for Proposals! APSA R&P is accepting proposals for small grant awards of up to $2,500 for research on R&P. Proposals may address any topic of theoretical, empirical, and practical significance for the study of religion and politics. Apply here: bit.ly/4gRt4py
bit.ly
Call for Proposals: Small Grants for Research in Religion and Politics
Call for Proposals:  Small Grants for Research in Religion and Politics Due November 10, 2025   The Religion and Politics section of the American Political Science Association is requesting proposals ...
056
Reposted by Jeff Carter
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Announcing the barest of web redesigns at correlatesofwar.org. Look on our new logo, ye mighty, and despair.
correlatesofwar.org
The Correlates of War Project – The Correlates of War Project
032
Reposted by Jeff Carter
Junior Americanist Workshop Series @jawspolisci.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Why don't you continue the momentum from APSA and present your work at JAWS? We are still taking submissions! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
JAWS Sign-Up Form--Fall 2024
Please use the form below to submit your project for potential inclusion in the Junior Americanist Workshop Series (JAWS), volunteer to serve as a discussant, and/or sign up for email updates.
068