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Reposted by Jane Vaynman

Stanford CISAC @stanfordcisac.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Next week: "Enemies in Agreement: Political Volatility and the Design of Arms Control" with @janevaynman.bsky.social RSVP here⤵️ cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/enemi...

cisac.fsi.stanford.edu

Enemies in Agreement: Political Volatility and the Design of Arms Control

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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Julia Gray's review of my book, Enemies in Agreement, for The Review of International Organizations is thoughtful, rigorous, and full of ideas for reading arms control through the lens of IO literature. link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007...

link.springer.com

Jane Vaynman. 2026. Review of Enemies in Agreement: Political Volatility and the Design of Arms Control. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)

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Reposted by Jane Vaynman

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 23/05/2026

Arms control in a post-Trump admin world would be very much a work in progress, says Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social. "The goal now is to do the thinking—about what arms control should look like, and for what threats—so that when conditions do shift, we’re positioned to act on them."

thebulletin.org

“Arms control is not about making agreements with your friends”—Interview with Jane Vaynman

Arms control in a post-Trump administration world, and under conditions of considerable technological change, would be very much a work in progress. But this is not the only time in history where…

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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Link below to the recording of my book talk at CSIS. This was a great conversation with Heather Williams, nerding out on all the academic and policy arms control things, and some broader themes as well. www.youtube.com/live/Mz7ncxz...

youtube.com

Enemies in Agreement: A Virtual Book Talk with Dr. Jane Vaynman

YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies

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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Book talk coming up, online! Join on Tuesday, April 21 at 3:30pm for my talk with @poni.csis.org. Register here: www.csis.org/events/enemi...

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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

So, I spent many many years working on my book, and it coincidentally comes out the same week as the end of the New START Treaty. In print from Cambridge University Press next week, and ebook is online now. www.cambridge.org/vaynman or on Amazon: a.co/d/0brNOTKq

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Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

The new book... exists!!! Got my author copies in the mail today! Looks quite readable! Spelled my name right on the cover, even!!! harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein

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Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

1/4 Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

The @statedeptus.bsky.social 2021 "compliance report" is the most detailed unclassified statement on Russian, Chinese nuclear testing. DIA said something similar in 2019. Russia is directly accused of low-yield testing, while there are only concerns about Chinese transparency.

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Adam Mount @ajmount.com · 28/10/2025

1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.

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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today! Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989-1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989-1991

Editor: James Graham Wilson

General Editor: Kathleen B. Rasmussen

Department of State
Washington
2025

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Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

1/8 Later this year from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series-- Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail. This is a sobering edited volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

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Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security @centerforhealthsecurity.org · 03/06/2025

📅 Register for the WMD Risk Reduction Science and Policy Forum on June 23–24, 2025, at the Hopkins Bloomberg Center in Washington, DC. This two-day forum, hosted by @jhu.edu, will bring together science and policy experts. Learn more: bit.ly/4lGgPOy

bit.ly

WMD Risk Reduction Science and Policy Forum hosted on Whova

June 23 – 24, 2025, Washington, DC

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Trump's offer is a dollar-store-JCPOA. Thread.

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Christopher Clary @claryc.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center @stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...

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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

New DIA graphic on "current and future missile threats" that Golden Dome might seek to address. (Sure looks like we might care about having a good relationship with Canada.)

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Christopher Clary @claryc.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...

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European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

🚨 We're hiring! Join @theeln.bsky.social as a Senior Policy Fellow on Russia-West relations. Lead research, shape policy, and engage with ELN network members, policymakers, and experts. 🗓️ Deadline: 17 April 2025 🔗 Apply now: europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/senior-p...

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Mark Bell @marksbell.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

New article in Journal of Strategic Studies on grand strategy and nuclear weapons: makes the case that grand strategic change is probably necessary for any major shift in how states think about the political utility of their nuclear weapons www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #NukeSky

tandfonline.com

Stability and change in nuclear thinking: Grand strategy, nuclear weapons, and policy change

What explains when states shift how they understand the utility of their nuclear weapons? Existing literature offers mechanisms that should be expected to inhibit change, but does not offer an expl...

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Jon Lindsay @jonrlindsay.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Job alert! The Nunn School at Georgia Tech is hiring an assistant prof in intelligence studies and intl security! In addition to folks already on the academic track, we also welcome applicants who have a PhD and are leaving the Intelligece Community for *some reason* looking for a new career.

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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Zombies, international institutions edition. Julia Gray’s article at Good Authority is worth a read.

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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

A small drop in an ocean of suck, but for the past few weeks friends have let me know that my book (Divided Armies), along w/ related articles + briefings, was removed from DoD reading lists & curricula for being "too woke" Now JFQ has literally "unpublished" its review & any mention of the book ⬇️

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Tristan A. Volpe @tristanvolpe.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Awesome to visit the Pile-1 nuclear memorial after presenting new research on how tech shapes arming strategies at Chicago’s Workshop on International Politics with @janevaynman.bsky.social. Special thanks to @profpaulpoast.bsky.social for the post-dinner tour!

Pile-1 nuclear reactor landmark memorial site at the University of Chicago

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Jamie Withorne @jamiewithorne.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

☢️ I've collected 800+ resources for those working on WMD issues in my "LearnWMD Spreadsheet" learnwmd.wixsite.com/learnwmd/the... Recently, I've gone through and updated all links & information. I've also broken out the OSINT resources into their own tab. Be sure to check it out!

learnwmd.wixsite.com

The Spreadsheet | learnwmd

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Reposted by Jane Vaynman

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

The DOGE firings have nothing to do with “efficiency” or “cutting waste.” They’re a direct push to weaken federal agencies perceived as liberal. This was evident from the start, and now the data confirms it: targeted agencies overwhelmingly those seen as more left-leaning. 🧵⬇️

Scatterplot titled “Empirical Evidence of Ideological Targeting in Federal Layoffs: Agencies seen as liberal are significantly more likely to face DOGE layoffs.”
• The x-axis represents Perceived Ideological Leaning of federal agencies, ranging from -2 (Most Liberal) to +2 (Most Conservative), based on survey responses from over 1,500 federal executives.
• The y-axis shows Agency Size (Number of Staff) on a logarithmic scale from 1,000 to 1,000,000.

Each point represents a federal agency:
• Red dots indicate agencies that experienced DOGE layoffs.
• Gray dots indicate agencies with no layoffs.

Key Observations:
• Liberal-leaning agencies (left side of the plot) are disproportionately represented among red dots, indicating higher layoff rates.
• Notable targeted agencies include:
• HHS (Health & Human Services)
• EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
• NIH (National Institutes of Health)
• CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)
• Dept. of Education
• USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development)
• The National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE), despite its conservative leaning (+1 on the scale), is an exception among targeted agencies.
• A notable outlier: the Department of Veterans Affairs (moderately conservative) also faced layoffs despite its size.

Takeaway:

The figure visually demonstrates that DOGE layoffs disproportionately targeted liberal-leaning agencies, supporting claims of ideological bias. The pattern reveals that layoffs were not driven by agency size or budget alone but were strongly associated with perceived ideology.

Source: Richardson, Clinton, & Lewis (2018). Elite Perceptions of Agency Ideology and Workforce Skill. The Journal of Politics, 80(1).

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Alejandro Alvarez @aletakesphotos.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Big, growing crowd just west of the U.S. Capitol protesting Trump, Musk and DOGE on President’s Day. “Hey Congress, grow a spine,” they shout, gathering for a rally around the reflecting pool.

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

obviously this is terrible for democracy and the rule of law in America but I'm also offended on behalf of the prisoner's dilemma

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Eugene Finkel @efinkel.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

It would be really nice of them to tell us what the heck the US position actually is and why we need to threaten military action to force Putin to agree to something that presumably gives him everything he wants. Or maybe it's a strategy: Vance is a bad cop, Trump is a corrupt, drunk Russian cop.

wsj.com

Exclusive | Vance Wields Threat of Sanctions, Military Action to Push Putin Into Ukraine Deal

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, the vice president said Ukraine must have “sovereign independence.”

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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Several friends at NNSA - the organization that manages the US nuclear stockpile - lost their jobs today. All probationary employees were fired.

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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

This is just a fantastic piece of analysis - pulls together an enormous amount of information into a crisp, clear argument.

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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

If you've ever used the Polity data, read this from Monty Marshall. tl;dr Polity is coding recent US events as an executive self-coup and an adverse regime change.

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Bridging The Gap @bridgingthegap.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Exciting job opportunity, particularly for anyone who may be leaving government! The University of Denver - Josef Korbel School of International Studies announces its search for the Rice Family Professor of the Practice of International and Public Affairs.

jobs.du.edu

Details - Rice Family Professor of the Practice of International and Public Affairs - Josef Korbel School of International Studies | University of Denver

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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Senator Andy Kim just said at JHU SAIS that he is shortly walking to a couple of blocks to US-AID and ask "what in God's name is happening." In his words, friends and allies are asking "If the White House is going to just dismiss part of the government, what are they going to do to us?" Applause.

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Matt Korda @mattkorda.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

🚨 Nuke/OSINT nerds—we have an incredible new opportunity for you! This summer, @scientistsorg.bsky.social is hosting a first-of-its-kind Open Source Nuclear Analysis Bootcamp, where you will learn to analyze: - Satellite imagery - Missiles - Fuel cycle - FOIA requests - Much more! Apply by 23 Feb!

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Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

1/ Musk seeking control over nerve systems of the federal government. As someone who spent a decade studying how centralized information systems are used for coercion this is a five alarm fire. We need to name it, identify risks, and seek to mitigate their impacts. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/u...

nytimes.com

Elon Musk’s Team Now Has Access to Treasury’s Payments System

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave Mr. Musk’s representatives at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency a powerful tool to monitor and potentially limit government spending.

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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Call for post-docs: The new National Security Data and Policy Institute at the University of Virginia is looking for postdocs who combine a focus on data/network science and international security. Details: nationalsecurity.virginia.edu

nationalsecurity.virginia.edu

Home

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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

New article: We examine the battlefield effects of forcing your own soldiers to fight ("fratricidal coercion") using 8 million Red Army soldier records, the Battle of Leningrad, and cross-nat analysis of 526 battles (1939-2011) Now Open Access in International Organization: doi.org/10.1017/S002...

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Pranay Vaddi @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

With great effort, I convinced Vipin to help put our musings, arguments, and (his) whining toward productive ends. I'm happy to announce "Strategic Simplicity," a Substack where we will try to explain - conversationally - contemporary occurrences in international security...

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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

On the latest episode of ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’, @janevaynman.bsky.social joins me to talk about the future of arms control at a time when few think arms control is viable or tractable. Listen here (for @warontherocks.bsky.social subscribers): warontherocks.com/episode/thin...

warontherocks.com

Arms Control in a New World - War on the Rocks

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Dr Emma Salisbury @salisbot.bsky.social · 26/01/2025

I was writing about deterrence today and remembered my favourite way of explaining it

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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 26/01/2025

I just talked about atomic bomb in WWII narratives in class last week and @wellerstein.bsky.social has a much better version of the comparison. Great table.

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