Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 2hTotally. I'm in Utah so #3 is what I found most interesting. Definitely correlation. 000
Reposted by Jacob S. RughPumpkin Sprice Latte @jampri.bsky.social · 3hThis doesn’t surprise me too much. The younger generation is increasingly out of the church and the redistricting debate and stratos data center were catalyst issues for many moderate republicans. The real key will be turnout and if the party moves can outweigh the older ride or die republicans. 161
Reposted by Jacob S. RughStephen Vaisey 🇺🇦 @stephenvaisey.com · 07/10/2026BTW this means no funding for GSS, ANES, or PSID. GSS 2026 is in the field now, but then it looks like that's it. Devastating for social science. 09797
Reposted by Jacob S. RughGabe Ortíz @tusk81.bsky.social · 8hIn recent months, “judges have repeatedly found arrests involving Cuni unlawful. One judge called an arrest warrant he signed ‘fraudulent,’ while another said that video evidence contradicts his sworn account of an arrest; in a third case, the gov’t withdrew his sworn statements as inaccurate.” 0248
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9hYes, three things are true at the same time: 1) 2024 WA shift did not predict USA (global trend of inflation and anti-incumbent sentiment overrode it) 2) 2024 WA shift absolutely predicted WA (swung right less than any other state) 3) Interestingly, 2024 WA shift predicted UT shift (Harris > Biden) 120
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9hI think CD2 is the most competitive race, yes, absolutely. The Stratos Data Center backlash combined with strong swings in Cache & Davis County, organizing in Weber Co., and Peter Crosby's campaign resources and 500+ volunteers (that's a lot for a Democratic campaign in Utah). Only time will tell. 130
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9hI'm attending No Kings's event, “No Kings: Vote Early UTAH COUNTY” in Provo - sign up now to join me! www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...mobilize.usNo Kings: Vote Early UTAH COUNTY · MobilizeJoin us in Provo for the next NO KINGS event. First we protest, then we vote early! We decide who represents us. We decide what comes next. For more than a year, millions of people have come togethe... 092
Reposted by Jacob S. RughJustin Baragona @justinbaragona.bsky.social · 13hLater, he claimed Mamdani never commented about the recent stabbing of an NYPD detective. Mamdani talked about the stabbing several times, including the below statement where the mayor notes he visited the injured officer: 651344361
Reposted by Jacob S. RughJacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026📈2026 BLUE WAVE INDICATORS (Oct. 7th) POLLING: 🔵CGB LV D +10 🔵Party/Lean ID D +11 🔵Named Ballot D +12 ELECTIONS: 🔵WA state primary vs. '22 D +10 🔵Special elections vs. '24 D +11 🔵Primary turnout, D-R D +13 🔵Mail votes so far (1M=6% returned) vs. '22 D +14 Sources listed in order in table footnote 24121
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 12hFor sure! I'll aim to post another update next week (EV + polls) 010
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23hFYI, Utah is not the only state with D +24 polling swings vs. 2024. See also old Kentucky: KY-06, a race whose polls will close first on Election Night and provide a preview of any potential wave... bsky.app/profile/joes... 051
Reposted by Jacob S. RughAaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026Troy Jackson: "The gentleman's name was Johan Sebastian Guerrero. He had a 3 year old daughter. The only mistake he made that morning was going to work. Because Sen. Collins is not willing to stand up to Donald Trump, he was murdered in the streets of Biddeford for doing nothing wrong." 14188482581
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23hUtah Statewide Generic Congressional Ballot per Deseret News/Hinckley Poll = R +15 (vs. R +30 in 2024) = D +15 swing www.deseret.com/politics/202... FWIW Noble Predictive Insights had UT GCB at R +20 = D +10 swing for 2026 (full disclosure) www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/utah-re... 160
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23h🔵2026 Blue Wave Utah Edition = D +10 to D +15 IMO, will crest highest in CD2 (D-Crosby vs. R-More) 📈Polling* vs. 2024 PRES by Congressional District (CD) 📈Polling* vs. Combined 2024 CD vote statewide (recall 2026 CD boundaries are different, fairer, better) *NOTE: POLLS INCL. UNDECIDED VOTERS 4234
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23hThey tend to be younger, much younger than Republicans, and less likely to vote, especially in midterms. But this year will likely see historically high UNA turnout. I will be watching it closely! 010
Reposted by Jacob S. RughRiver_Tam @rivertam.bsky.social · 09/10/2026DEM +12,504 (+5.0%) REP -8,109 (-0.9%) lol. lmao. 0152
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026YES. UNA = Unaffiliated or No Party Affiliation as is known in other states like AZ, CO, FL, NV, ... Spot on. 110
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Good evidence for your claim here re. SLCo: bsky.app/profile/jake... 010
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026When McAdams wins by UT-01 by 30+ it hopefully helps flip multiple Utah state leg. seats down ballot. These historic reg. trends may be a canary in the coal mine -- SLCo GOP registration in freefall and obviously many defected straight to Democratic registration (even though DEM primaries are open) 1333
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026And the biggest organic increase of all happened around March caucuses--so many Rs also literally switched to Ds based on that alone, since statewide most were outside CD1 primary. Definitely organic & unprecedented. Dem reg. up 8.2% in Cache! Up 7.9% in Wasatch Up 6.5% in Utah Co. (Yes, Utah Co.) 010
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Thank you for your kind words. And, yes, this year is unprecedented here in Utah. 🌊 030
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026UTAH New Voters 2026 YTD 🔵 DEM +12,504 (+5.0%) 🔴 REP -8,109 (-0.9%) 🟣 UNA +17,335 (+3.5%) (DEM + UNA) - REP = +37,497 👀 2305
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/20261,080 new Utah voters registered Democratic *just last week* 2026 YTD (thru Oct 05) 🔵 DEM +12,504 (+5.0%) 🔴 REP -8,109 (-0.9%) 🟣 UNA +17,335 (+3.5%) 2026 is the first year on record in Utah where DEMS have outregistered REPS (never happened going back 12 years) 14615
Reposted by Jacob S. RughThe Salt Lake Tribune @sltrib.com · 08/10/2026“The west side needs a real voice at the Capitol, and that’s why I’m running for House District 27,” Liz Oates writes in an op-ed.sltrib.comLiz Oates: I’ve spent my life watching the Great Salt Lake shrink. If elected, I’ll treat it like the public health emergency it is. “The west side needs a real voice at the Capitol, and that’s why I’m running for House District 27,” Liz Oates writes in an op-ed. 0121
Reposted by Jacob S. RughA.J. Carrillo @ajcarrillo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Trump 30% approval, a Pew survey low. Dems +8 on generic ballot among RVs.pewresearch.orgWith Americans in a Sour Mood, Democratic Voters Are More Engaged in MidtermsThe 2026 midterm election comes amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and near-record low approval ratings for Trump. 0105
Reposted by Jacob S. RughRalstonReports @ralstonreports.bsky.social · 08/10/2026The early voting blog is updated! Still not many votes to analyze, but nevertheless, the charts have begun! And many more to come soon once the votes begin rolling in! And always open to feedback/suggestions/praise. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...thenevadaindependent.comThe early voting blog, 2026 general - The Nevada IndependentUsing actual data from those who vote early, we track November's marquee races, including those for Nevada's governor, congressional seats and state Legislature. 083
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh29 U.S.C. § 157 @organizingpower.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Yeah, the data is surprisingly consistent with an environment very favorable to Dems—somewhere between 2006 and 2018. It also seems like the wave will be uneven, with some areas (like Northeast) seeing only marginal gains while others (eg, TX, IA, OH) see massive swings towards Dems 031
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Polls and actual election results all in agreement and point to double-digit 2026 blue wave: bsky.app/profile/jake... 030
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Apart from candidate quality, investment, swing senate seats (like swing state effect in pres. cycle), here is the best answer I've seen, from Ethan Chen (Decalibrate on Substack) decalibrate.substack.com/p/what-does-...decalibrate.substack.comWhat Does A Blue Wave Look Like?A Statistical Evaluation of Midterms 010
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026📈2026 BLUE WAVE INDICATORS (Oct. 7th) POLLING: 🔵CGB LV D +10 🔵Party/Lean ID D +11 🔵Named Ballot D +12 ELECTIONS: 🔵WA state primary vs. '22 D +10 🔵Special elections vs. '24 D +11 🔵Primary turnout, D-R D +13 🔵Mail votes so far (1M=6% returned) vs. '22 D +14 Sources listed in order in table footnote 24121
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026The second bullet point (polls spot on in past two midterms) and the last one (people not recalling/reporting 2024 due to Trump disapproval) are very persuasive points. 2190
Reposted by Jacob S. RughMichael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 07/10/2026#earlyvote midday update 10/7: at least 2 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...election.lab.ufl.eduUF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote StatisticsLive national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election. 35615
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 07/10/2026According to @fiftyplusone.news its now more likely that Dems pick up 54 seats than the GOP come out with 50 0314
Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Excellent review of how far we've fallen from public investment in the arts for the 1976 Bicentennial vs now 050
Reposted by Jacob S. RughMelissa Gira Grant @melissagiragrant.com · 07/10/2026reading this, recalling how quickly the killing of Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman slipped out of the newsphoenixnewtimes.comCongressional candidate is raped while repairing her campaign signsEmbarrassed, she initially didn’t want to report attack. Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office's investigation is ongoing. 1959631886
Reposted by Jacob S. RughBill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026The Democratic Party gets a lot of criticism these days, but it seems like they did a pretty good job of recruiting candidates this year? Especially when you look at Senate races in Alaska, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa… and even Maine seems to be in nit-terrible shape, given the Platner implosion. 1221021
Reposted by Jacob S. RughBen McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Okay guys Utah Battleground sheet has been updated for the 09/30 reporting all in all I feel good $ wise on a lot of key races. Michael Finch, Liz Oates, Blake Townsend, Ofa Matagi, Ali Cloward, and Araueni Olivares need your support the most docs.google.com/document/d/1...docs.google.comUtah Battleground Campaign Fundraising Sheet Pre-PrimaryUtah Battleground Campaign Fundraising Sheet Sept 30th https://secure.actblue.com/donate/purrtah Utah House District 3 Trump+10.4 Downballot R+8.04 Candidate Raised Spent YTD Raised ... 2158
Reposted by Jacob S. RughLisa Wade @lisawade.bsky.social · 06/10/2026I made the same case for the impossibility of reforming historically White, generally wealthy fraternities a while back. (Hey TIME, I pitched you a follow up. Check your inbox.)time.comWhy Colleges Should Get Rid of Fraternities for Good'Reform is simply not possible' 1299
Reposted by Jacob S. Rughjamelle @jamellebouie.net · 04/10/2026yeah, the reason republicans are just not going to budge from texas is the reason why armies try not to abandon their capitals. it isn’t necessarily a strategic defeat to lose the seat of power, but it is a profound blow to morale. 1274372537
Reposted by Jacob S. Rughstevelevitsky.bsky.social @stevelevitsky.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Lucan Way and I have been writing about competitive authoritarianism for more than 25 years. We never thought we'd write this piece. www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/com...journalofdemocracy.orgCompetitive Authoritarianism in America | Journal of DemocracyThe United States has slid into competitive authoritarianism. The slide has been modest and remains reversible—but it is real. Even after Donald Trump, American democracy will remain fragile. 10644342
Reposted by Jacob S. RughMark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 06/10/2026👇🎯 Again, my two-decade old opinion is that we will get rid of the Electoral College only if, & as soon as,Texas reliably goes default blue like VA. And it will happen with the GOP making <the exact same arguments> they’ve spent decades arguing against when Dems make them. bsky.app/profile/mcop... 56211
Reposted by Jacob S. RughBryan Schott @schotthappens.com · 05/10/2026An internal poll obtained by Utah Political Watch shows Democrat Celeste Johnson leading Republican Luke Searle by nine points. Donald Trump won this district by almost 11 points in 2024. #utpol utahpolitics.news/democrat-lea...utahpolitics.newsTrump won this Utah House district by 11 points. A Democrat now leads in an internal pollAn internal poll has Democrat Celeste Johnson leading Republican Luke Searle 43%-34% in Utah House District 59, a Wasatch County seat Trump won by 11. 18411