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Jacob S. Rugh

@jakerugh.bsky.social
1.7K followers 651 following 444 posts

Raised on Chicago's South Side. My research has appeared in The Atlantic, 538, The Guardian, KSL, NYT, NPR, Split Ticket, Salt Lake Tribune & Supreme Court cases.

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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 2h
Totally. I'm in Utah so #3 is what I found most interesting. Definitely correlation.
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Pumpkin Sprice Latte @jampri.bsky.social · 3h
This doesn’t surprise me too much. The younger generation is increasingly out of the church and the redistricting debate and stratos data center were catalyst issues for many moderate republicans. The real key will be turnout and if the party moves can outweigh the older ride or die republicans.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 2h
Oh dang
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 6h
Thank you so much! That means a lot to me.
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Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦 @stephenvaisey.com · 07/10/2026
BTW this means no funding for GSS, ANES, or PSID. GSS 2026 is in the field now, but then it looks like that's it. Devastating for social science.
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Gabe Ortíz @tusk81.bsky.social · 8h
In recent months, “judges have repeatedly found arrests involving Cuni unlawful. One judge called an arrest warrant he signed ‘fraudulent,’ while another said that video evidence contradicts his sworn account of an arrest; in a third case, the gov’t withdrew his sworn statements as inaccurate.”
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9h
Silver Bulletin does. 50+1 shows you both RV & LV.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9h
Yes, three things are true at the same time: 1) 2024 WA shift did not predict USA (global trend of inflation and anti-incumbent sentiment overrode it) 2) 2024 WA shift absolutely predicted WA (swung right less than any other state) 3) Interestingly, 2024 WA shift predicted UT shift (Harris > Biden)
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9h
I think CD2 is the most competitive race, yes, absolutely. The Stratos Data Center backlash combined with strong swings in Cache & Davis County, organizing in Weber Co., and Peter Crosby's campaign resources and 500+ volunteers (that's a lot for a Democratic campaign in Utah). Only time will tell.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 9h
I'm attending No Kings's event, “No Kings: Vote Early UTAH COUNTY” in Provo - sign up now to join me! www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...
mobilize.us
No Kings: Vote Early UTAH COUNTY · Mobilize
Join us in Provo for the next NO KINGS event. First we protest, then we vote early! We decide who represents us. We decide what comes next. For more than a year, millions of people have come togethe...
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Justin Baragona @justinbaragona.bsky.social · 13h
Later, he claimed Mamdani never commented about the recent stabbing of an NYPD detective. Mamdani talked about the stabbing several times, including the below statement where the mayor notes he visited the injured officer:
Earlier today, an off-duty NYPD detective was stabbed several times in the Bronx during what preliminary information indicates was an attempted robbery. 

I visited the detective and his family at Jacobi Hospital with Police Commissioner Tisch. 

He is thankfully in stable condition, and I am hoping for his quick and complete recovery. I am confident that the NYPD will identify and apprehend the suspects and that the people responsible will be held to account.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
📈2026 BLUE WAVE INDICATORS (Oct. 7th) POLLING: 🔵CGB LV D +10 🔵Party/Lean ID D +11 🔵Named Ballot D +12 ELECTIONS: 🔵WA state primary vs. '22 D +10 🔵Special elections vs. '24 D +11 🔵Primary turnout, D-R D +13 🔵Mail votes so far (1M=6% returned) vs. '22 D +14 Sources listed in order in table footnote
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 12h
For sure! I'll aim to post another update next week (EV + polls)
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23h
You are not alone! bsky.app/profile/jake...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23h
FYI, Utah is not the only state with D +24 polling swings vs. 2024. See also old Kentucky: KY-06, a race whose polls will close first on Election Night and provide a preview of any potential wave... bsky.app/profile/joes...
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 09/10/2026
Troy Jackson: "The gentleman's name was Johan Sebastian Guerrero. He had a 3 year old daughter. The only mistake he made that morning was going to work. Because Sen. Collins is not willing to stand up to Donald Trump, he was murdered in the streets of Biddeford for doing nothing wrong."
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23h
Utah Statewide Generic Congressional Ballot per Deseret News/Hinckley Poll = R +15 (vs. R +30 in 2024) = D +15 swing www.deseret.com/politics/202... FWIW Noble Predictive Insights had UT GCB at R +20 = D +10 swing for 2026 (full disclosure) www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/utah-re...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23h
🔵2026 Blue Wave Utah Edition = D +10 to D +15 IMO, will crest highest in CD2 (D-Crosby vs. R-More) 📈Polling* vs. 2024 PRES by Congressional District (CD) 📈Polling* vs. Combined 2024 CD vote statewide (recall 2026 CD boundaries are different, fairer, better) *NOTE: POLLS INCL. UNDECIDED VOTERS
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 23h
They tend to be younger, much younger than Republicans, and less likely to vote, especially in midterms. But this year will likely see historically high UNA turnout. I will be watching it closely!
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River_Tam @rivertam.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
DEM +12,504 (+5.0%) REP -8,109 (-0.9%) lol. lmao.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
YES. UNA = Unaffiliated or No Party Affiliation as is known in other states like AZ, CO, FL, NV, ... Spot on.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Come home! They're coming home to stay now!
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Good evidence for your claim here re. SLCo: bsky.app/profile/jake...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
defund?
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/jake...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
When McAdams wins by UT-01 by 30+ it hopefully helps flip multiple Utah state leg. seats down ballot. These historic reg. trends may be a canary in the coal mine -- SLCo GOP registration in freefall and obviously many defected straight to Democratic registration (even though DEM primaries are open)
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 09/10/2026
This afternoon in Marble Hill, a New Yorker was shot by an ICE agent in a residential neighborhood. Early reports indicate agents surrounded him and a 5-year-old child in his car before firing multiple rounds. We believe the child was physically unharmed.

This is an unconscionable and incredibly serious situation. I have called the President; when we speak I will demand that he ends all ICE enforcement actions in our city. I will not stand by while ICE agents terrorize our communities.

Our thoughts are with the injured New Yorker and his family tonight. We are praying for his recovery.

Get ICE out of our neighborhoods. Get ICE out of our hospitals. Get ICE off our streets. Get ICE away from our children.

Abolish ICE.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
And the biggest organic increase of all happened around March caucuses--so many Rs also literally switched to Ds based on that alone, since statewide most were outside CD1 primary. Definitely organic & unprecedented. Dem reg. up 8.2% in Cache! Up 7.9% in Wasatch Up 6.5% in Utah Co. (Yes, Utah Co.)
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Thank you for your kind words. And, yes, this year is unprecedented here in Utah. 🌊
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
UTAH New Voters 2026 YTD 🔵 DEM +12,504 (+5.0%) 🔴 REP -8,109 (-0.9%) 🟣 UNA +17,335 (+3.5%) (DEM + UNA) - REP = +37,497 👀
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
1,080 new Utah voters registered Democratic *just last week* 2026 YTD (thru Oct 05) 🔵 DEM +12,504 (+5.0%) 🔴 REP -8,109 (-0.9%) 🟣 UNA +17,335 (+3.5%) 2026 is the first year on record in Utah where DEMS have outregistered REPS (never happened going back 12 years)
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The Salt Lake Tribune @sltrib.com · 08/10/2026
“The west side needs a real voice at the Capitol, and that’s why I’m running for House District 27,” Liz Oates writes in an op-ed.
sltrib.com
Liz Oates: I’ve spent my life watching the Great Salt Lake shrink. If elected, I’ll treat it like the public health emergency it is.
“The west side needs a real voice at the Capitol, and that’s why I’m running for House District 27,” Liz Oates writes in an op-ed.
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A.J. Carrillo @ajcarrillo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Trump 30% approval, a Pew survey low. Dems +8 on generic ballot among RVs.
pewresearch.org
With Americans in a Sour Mood, Democratic Voters Are More Engaged in Midterms
The 2026 midterm election comes amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and near-record low approval ratings for Trump.
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RalstonReports @ralstonreports.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The early voting blog is updated! Still not many votes to analyze, but nevertheless, the charts have begun! And many more to come soon once the votes begin rolling in! And always open to feedback/suggestions/praise. thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-...
thenevadaindependent.com
The early voting blog, 2026 general - The Nevada Independent
Using actual data from those who vote early, we track November's marquee races, including those for Nevada's governor, congressional seats and state Legislature.
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29 U.S.C. § 157 @organizingpower.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Yeah, the data is surprisingly consistent with an environment very favorable to Dems—somewhere between 2006 and 2018. It also seems like the wave will be uneven, with some areas (like Northeast) seeing only marginal gains while others (eg, TX, IA, OH) see massive swings towards Dems
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Polls and actual election results all in agreement and point to double-digit 2026 blue wave: bsky.app/profile/jake...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Apart from candidate quality, investment, swing senate seats (like swing state effect in pres. cycle), here is the best answer I've seen, from Ethan Chen (Decalibrate on Substack) decalibrate.substack.com/p/what-does-...
decalibrate.substack.com
What Does A Blue Wave Look Like?
A Statistical Evaluation of Midterms
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
📈2026 BLUE WAVE INDICATORS (Oct. 7th) POLLING: 🔵CGB LV D +10 🔵Party/Lean ID D +11 🔵Named Ballot D +12 ELECTIONS: 🔵WA state primary vs. '22 D +10 🔵Special elections vs. '24 D +11 🔵Primary turnout, D-R D +13 🔵Mail votes so far (1M=6% returned) vs. '22 D +14 Sources listed in order in table footnote
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The second bullet point (polls spot on in past two midterms) and the last one (people not recalling/reporting 2024 due to Trump disapproval) are very persuasive points.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
#earlyvote midday update 10/7: at least 2 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
UF Election Lab: 2026 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Live national and state-by-state early voting statistics for the 2026 general election.
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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 07/10/2026
According to @fiftyplusone.news its now more likely that Dems pick up 54 seats than the GOP come out with 50
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Excellent review of how far we've fallen from public investment in the arts for the 1976 Bicentennial vs now
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Melissa Gira Grant @melissagiragrant.com · 07/10/2026
reading this, recalling how quickly the killing of Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman slipped out of the news
phoenixnewtimes.com
Congressional candidate is raped while repairing her campaign signs
Embarrassed, she initially didn’t want to report attack. Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office's investigation is ongoing.
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Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The Democratic Party gets a lot of criticism these days, but it seems like they did a pretty good job of recruiting candidates this year? Especially when you look at Senate races in Alaska, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa… and even Maine seems to be in nit-terrible shape, given the Platner implosion.
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Okay guys Utah Battleground sheet has been updated for the 09/30 reporting all in all I feel good $ wise on a lot of key races. Michael Finch, Liz Oates, Blake Townsend, Ofa Matagi, Ali Cloward, and Araueni Olivares need your support the most docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
Utah Battleground Campaign Fundraising Sheet Pre-Primary
Utah Battleground Campaign Fundraising Sheet Sept 30th https://secure.actblue.com/donate/purrtah Utah House District 3 Trump+10.4 Downballot R+8.04 Candidate Raised Spent YTD Raised ...
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Lisa Wade @lisawade.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I made the same case for the impossibility of reforming historically White, generally wealthy fraternities a while back. (Hey TIME, I pitched you a follow up. Check your inbox.)
time.com
Why Colleges Should Get Rid of Fraternities for Good
'Reform is simply not possible'
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 04/10/2026
yeah, the reason republicans are just not going to budge from texas is the reason why armies try not to abandon their capitals. it isn’t necessarily a strategic defeat to lose the seat of power, but it is a profound blow to morale.
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stevelevitsky.bsky.social @stevelevitsky.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Lucan Way and I have been writing about competitive authoritarianism for more than 25 years. We never thought we'd write this piece. www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/com...
journalofdemocracy.org
Competitive Authoritarianism in America | Journal of Democracy
The United States has slid into competitive authoritarianism. The slide has been modest and remains reversible—but it is real. Even after Donald Trump, American democracy will remain fragile.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
👇🎯 Again, my two-decade old opinion is that we will get rid of the Electoral College only if, & as soon as,Texas reliably goes default blue like VA. And it will happen with the GOP making <the exact same arguments> they’ve spent decades arguing against when Dems make them. bsky.app/profile/mcop...
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Bryan Schott @schotthappens.com · 05/10/2026
An internal poll obtained by Utah Political Watch shows Democrat Celeste Johnson leading Republican Luke Searle by nine points. Donald Trump won this district by almost 11 points in 2024. #utpol utahpolitics.news/democrat-lea...
utahpolitics.news
Trump won this Utah House district by 11 points. A Democrat now leads in an internal poll
An internal poll has Democrat Celeste Johnson leading Republican Luke Searle 43%-34% in Utah House District 59, a Wasatch County seat Trump won by 11.
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