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Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz.bsky.social
5.7K followers 839 following 295 posts

President, @EPI-org. Board member, EPI Action. Former Chief Economist, US Dept of Labor. Bike commuter, backyard beekeeper. Tweets my own. She/her.

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Reposted by Heidi Shierholz
Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16h
Apropos of claims being made on the other site about minimum wage effects on jobs. I encourage you to look at our work on the own-wage elasticity (OWE). Most studies suggest effects that are either positive or small negative, where magnitudes are economically interpretable. 1/
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 01/10/2026
Even if you've never been a union member, the attacks on unions have cost you money. The typical worker would be earning $5,000 more a year if unions were as strong today as they were five decades ago
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Nominal wage growth continued to decelerate in Sept, rising just 3.0% over the year. Slowing nominal wage growth suggests workers don't have the leverage to bid up their wages. Even with low unemployment, the depressed hires rate means workers aren't finding new jobs to raise their wages. #EconSky
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Manufacturing employment grew modestly in September, a gain of 9,000 jobs. But the fact remains that manufacturing employment is still down 21,000 jobs since January 2025. It's hardly a manufacturing boon.
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Dean Baker @deanbaker13.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Wage growth slows further to just 3.0%, taking the average for last 3 months compared with the prior 3 months, the annualized rate is 2.6%, both are well below inflation meaning real wages are falling.
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Dean Baker @deanbaker13.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Employment rate for native-born workers is down 0.7 percentage points from a year ago, a full percentage point from Sept 2024
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Dean Baker @deanbaker13.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The share of unemployment due to voluntary quits fell to 10.5%, the lowest since May of last year.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Wage growth just keeps slowing. And yes, wages are rising slower than prices, and no, that's not how economic growth is meant to work.
Line chart titled "Nominal wage growth is slowing" showing year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings of private-sector workers. Wage growth has declined steadily from a peak of 5.9% in early 2022 to 3.0% in September 2026, the slowest rate in the series. This nearly 3 percentage point drop over four and a half years indicates significantly cooler labor market conditions, with the deceleration accelerating in recent months as growth fell from the 3.7-3.9% range in 2025 to the low 3% range currently.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
An all around weak -- but not tragic -- payrolls report for September. +29k jobs created, about 60k below expectations. Revisions made both July and August look weaker, too. Over the past 3 months, we've an average of a mere +17k per month.
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Notable weakness in today's #jobs report for this morning. Payroll employment grew by 29,000 while downward revisions to both July and August totaled 60,000. July is now recording losses. The job growth in September (29,000) is slower than the prior 12 months (45,000). #EconSky
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 01/10/2026
Employers push up employee salaries to avoid overtime obligations. Workers end up making more. "This subset of bunched workers experienced an estimated 8.5 percent increase in base salary, while other affected workers saw comparatively modest gains from overtime pay." www.nber.org/digest/20261...
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 29/09/2026
Huge congrats to the brilliant economist and historian Ellora Derenoncourt, one of this year's MacArthur Fellows!
Ellora Derenoncourt - 2026 MacArthur Fellow
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Shoutout to the 🐐GOAT🐐, respect greatness www.macfound.org/videos/2026-...
macfound.org
Ellora Derenoncourt - 2026 MacArthur Fellow
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 27/09/2026
The research implies that a local newspaper creates $114 per resident per year ($84 in 2018$) in local government efficiency. A case for subsidies for local news, perhaps in the form of consumer free-subscription vouchers like @deanbaker13.bsky.social advocates
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Susan Collins is always horrified by the predictable results of her own vote, which means Mainers who genuinely care about Susan Collins should elect Troy Jackson as he won’t vote for things that wind up upsetting Susan Collins, unlike Susan Collins
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 24/09/2026
Did AI increase unemployment among recent college grads this summer? Probably not. Summer of 2026 was pretty normal compared to earlier years. new research from Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu
Line plot of monthly unemployment of recent college graduates, by year.

Figure 2a from https://www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/publications/2026/working-paper/early-impacts-ai-employment-among-recent-college-graduates
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🌬Breeze @cool-summer-breeze.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is the Stolen Neighbors Quilt. Each of the 11,000 squares represents a person taken by ICE in Minnesota.
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Really good stuff in this:
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My op-ed is out in USA Today www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
usatoday.com
DEI initiatives didn't cost companies. Just the opposite. | Opinion
Firms that kept DEI, whether due to executive decisions or shareholder pressure, performed as well in the stock market as those that rolled it back.
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Dave Kamper @dskamper.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Huge finding. ICE activity was NOT correlated with immigrant density. It WAS correlated with Black and brown neighborhoods. Shocked, shocked.
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Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Just extracted honey from my backyard hive, and it's almost black (see photo) and tastes weird. Turns out it's spotted lanternfly honey. Apparently, lanternflies feed on tree sap and excrete sugary “honeydew,” which the bees collect and turn into honey. EVERYTHING is the apocalypse these days.
A glass jar filled with lanternfly-poo honey so dark it looks nearly black, sitting on a wood counter in front of a row of cookbooks.
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New data alert 🚨 - CEO pay surged in 2025, rising 14% to an average $27.9 million - CEOs are paid 325 times as much as the typical worker in their industry - Between 1978 and 2025, top CEO pay rose 1,316% compared to only a 28% increase for typical workers www.epi.org/blog/ceo-pay... #EconSky
epi.org
CEO pay surged in 2025: CEOs are paid 325 times as much as the typical worker
Key findings: CEO pay at the top 350 U.S. firms rose 14.0% in 2025 to an average of $27.9 million. CEOs made 325 times as much as the typical worker in 2025. It hasn’t always been this way. In 1965, C...
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Liz Shuler @lizshuler.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Tech billionaires are saying they support federal regulation — at the same moment Big Tech’s SuperPACs are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to kill any chance of that regulation! Things like that erode any credibility you have.
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
This morning, the Census Bureau is releasing the latest data on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance! Note: these data are for 2025 and will not reflect changes in the labor market, rising inflation, and attacks on vital safety net policies, hitting families in 2026. www.epi.org/blog/2025-ce...
epi.org
2025 Census data preview: Key measures of earnings, income, and poverty may show early signs of a softer labor market and weaker safety net
The 2025 Census data may show how the Trump administration’s policy choices were starting to impact the economic well-being of workers and their families last year.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 15/09/2026
I have a lot of respect for Wired's reporting but this is wrong. No one who worked on this report is from Census CES. @wired.com should correct their error or provide more detail because this element of the story is wrong and vague.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
My fellow Americans, this is being done in our name. wapo.st/4h1hNmT
wapo.st
Alligator Alcatraz detainees were put in small cages, DHS watchdog report finds
The Florida facility’s staff referred to the enclosures as “calming areas.” Investigators said their use violated federal standards and did not align with “standards for humane treatment.”
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 12/09/2026
Unionization reduces deaths of despair. "Right to work" laws kill. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Labor unions and deaths of despair: Evidence from right-to-work laws☆
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103176
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Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between union membership and deaths of despair. Using state-level variation in the timing of the adoption of right-to-work laws as a natural experiment, I show that right-to-work laws are associated with a decline in union membership and an increase in deaths of despair. Two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) difference-in-differences (DiD) estimates suggest that the adoption of a right-to-work law is associated with a 2.6 percentage point reduction in union membership and an increase in deaths of despair mortality of 13 additional persons per 100,000, implying there are approximately 7.5 additional deaths of despair for every 1,000 workers who lose union membership. An analysis of mechanisms suggests the increase in mortality is largely driven by increased opioid usage and a concomitant increase in overdose deaths. I support the TWFE results with estimates from two alternative estimators robust to concerns about treatment effect heterogeneity and variation in treatment timing. Estimates from the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator and the Borusyak et al. (2024) estimator support the TWFE findings: right-to-work laws reduce union membership and increase deaths of despair.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Latest inflation data just dropped. And... prices are still rising at an uncomfortably high rate. Headline inflation was 3.4% over the past year. This month, prices grew by 0.4%. This is pretty much as expected, but no-one was expecting good news.
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Economic Policy Institute @epi.org · 10/09/2026
Affordability: it's the outcome of a race between income and prices. @hshierholz.bsky.social and @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social latest in @aft.org's American Educator covers the breadth of options to resolve the affordability crisis when we address the policy choices that got us here.
aft.org
Wages, Inequality, and the Roots of America’s Affordability Crisis
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Why do you appreciate unions? I’ll start: Weekends off Paid vacations Work breaks Sick leave Paid holidays No child labor Safer working conditions Health care and retirement benefits
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Imma get ahead of this one: There's a lot of lies being told by the Administration. There's some really bad things they're doing to federal statistics (I have a big piece coming on this next week). But these jobs numbers look as reliable and honest as they've ever been.
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Even though unemployment held steady, I have continuing concerns about the depressed hires rate. Those who are lucky enough to have a job are sitting tight while new entrants or long-term employed can't find work. Long-term unemployment has been steadily rising led by those unemployed over a year.
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Today's #jobs data can be considered a solid bounce back to relative weakness in June and July. Job growth has averaged 71k over the last 3 months. Weaker numbers for leisure and hospitality and unusual July losses in local government education employment seems to have resolved in August. #econsky
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Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Incorporating BLS's preliminary benchmark revisions, we are now down 129,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office.
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 25/08/2026
Teachers educate 50 million kids a year, but in every state they're paid far less than comparable college graduates. New estimates from Sylvia Allegretto @epi.org @ceprdc.bsky.social
map of the US states titled "The teacher weekly wage penalty is at least 25% in 25 states: Regression-adjusted estimates by state, pooled CPS data for 2020-2025"
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AFL-CIO @aflcio.org · 25/08/2026
Dolly Parton knew what it was like to struggle as she fought for working families her whole career. From providing free books to kids to giving working women our "9 to 5" anthem, she was an icon and an inspiration. Rest in power to our union sister. We will always love you.
A photo of Dolly Parton sitting at a desk and talking on the phone in a scene from the movie 9 to 5.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 24/08/2026
Recessions reduce children's learning & widen inequality #EconSky www.nber.org/papers/w35639
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 24/08/2026
Census Bureau-branded conspiracy theories are extremely alarming should raise everyone's antennae about manipulation of federal stats. But so far Trump hasn't cooked the regular data on jobs, inflation, etc. If that happens, we'll find out the same way we found out about this: career staff leaks.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/08/2026
Great job, @evanpstarr.bsky.social!
Clause and Effect: Theory and Field Experimental Evidence on Noncompete Clauses 
Bo Cowgill , Brandon Freiberg , Evan Starr

Abstract
We study worker noncompete clauses in a large field experiment with two finance firms. Across ~14,000 job offers to freelance recruiters on short-term contracts, we randomize wages and the presence, salience, and duration of noncompetes (all contracts also included a nondisclosure agreement). Removing a noncompete increases mobility between competing employers by 36–52% and raises workers’ total earnings from the two firms by 12–17%. We find no evidence—rejecting even small effects—that removing noncompetes generates secret leakage. We also find no evidence that workers choose noncompete jobs for higher pay. Many workers appear unaware of noncompetes before firms’ post-employment communication. The results align with a model of inattention and uncertainty about enforcement.
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The sad irony is that, despite claiming that brutal mass deportations would help Americans, a recent analysis found that surges in ICE enforcement actually led to overall job losses for both immigrants AND American-born workers. www.brookings.edu/articles/ice...
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Congressman Greg Casar @repcasar.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
ICE just arrested a 5-year-old on his way to a soccer game in Austin. His name is Liam, just like the little boy from Minnesota. He should be in kindergarten this week. Instead he's in a trailer prison in the desert. Release Liam. Release these kids. Close the Dilley children’s prison.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
New working paper w/ Hanna Folsz In Jan 2025 Trump issued an executive order targeting corporate DEI programs. Many companies ended DEI fearing financial risk We find that firms that kept DEI performed just as well in financial markets, revenue, etc democracypolicylab.berkeley.edu/wp-content/u...
The Trump administration has used executive authority to influence the behavior of civil society organizations such as law firms, universities, and corporations.
Do corporations that resist executive orders perform worse financially? In January 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order directing federal
agencies to investigate and compel firms to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. Some firms complied with the order, whereas other firms
resisted by reaffirming their DEI programs. We find that S&P 500 firms that
maintained their DEI programs performed just as well as compliant firms, both
in terms of stock market returns and revenue. The results are robust across various measures of maintaining DEI, including measures based on executives’ public
statements about DEI programs, interest group ratings, firm financial statements,
and shareholder rejections of anti-DEI resolutions. The results suggest that, at
least in some areas, firms can resist pressure from the executive branch with
minimal costs to financial performance.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 14/08/2026
"Affordability’s key ingredient is union power" @hshierholz.bsky.social @epi.org www.epi.org/blog/afforda...
epi.org
Affordability’s key ingredient is union power: Tripling union membership would raise wages, reduce inequality, and strengthen communities. Policymakers should take note.
This is an excerpt from an op-ed originally published at In These Times. Read the full piece here.  Affordability—or the lack thereof—has dominated the recent political debate in the U.S. And for good...
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Weak #jobsreport all around -Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 (mostly driven by state and local losses) -The unemployment rate ticked down for the "wrong" reasons as labor force participation and employment-to-population ratio softened -Nominal wage growth decelerated to 3.2% over the year #EconSky
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Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I once received a transcript from a radio interview that identified me as "economist Tiny Shareholders." (I am economist Heidi Shierholz.)
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Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinstitute.org · 30/07/2026
Climate policy isn't going away because Washington stopped talking about it. Americans are already paying the price through fires, floods, heat, and rising costs. Our new collection asks a different question: what should the next agenda for climate look like post-DOGE and the rollback of the IRA? 🧵
rooseveltinstitute.org
Building Up in 2029: How to Make Green Statecraft Durable
Explore 17 essays on durable US climate and industrial policy after Inflation Reduction Act rollbacks, covering governance, planning, finance, and production.
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Priorities.
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Tripling union membership would… -Raise the median worker’s wages by $7k+ annually -Reverse 1/3 of the increase in inequality since 1979 -Increase the number of people with health insurance And more. Unions are the key to taking on runaway corporate power. Every worker deserves one.
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Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
EPI is hosting a webinar about this amazing new vision at 1PM Eastern time today -- join us! www.epi.org/event/50-mil...
epi.org
50 million U.S. workers want to join a union: What if they could?
Imagine if one-in-three private-sector workers belonged to a union. What would wages, benefits, and working conditions look like if more workers had access to a union contract and the labor movement g...
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