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Josh Bivens

@joshbivens-econ.bsky.social
1.3K followers 462 following 112 posts

Mostly here for discussions of economics and policy. All views here are my own.

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Price effects of the Iran conflict already showing up in March data. For the month, prices up a lot and real earnings are down. And it almost surely gets worse from here. 1
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k. #EconSky
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
To me, today's jobs report is what entering a recession looks like. Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look like today - rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
I'm sure somebody has pointed this out already, but, the Trump administration's excitement about 1.7% ytd growth in real average hourly earnings for prod/non-supervisory workers is...weird? Kind of 'meh' relative to what they inherited? For context, last bar on right is what they're so excited about
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Like many, I’m not looking forward to the Trump parade this Saturday. It is dumb on so many levels. I’ve been a bit surprised, though, at how many people seem very upset about its cost – which estimates seem to put as high as $45 million. 1 www.npr.org/2025/06/12/g...
npr.org
By the numbers: A look at the Army's 250th anniversary parade on Trump's birthday
In a few days, the nation's capital will host its largest military parade in more than three decades. We look at some numbers behind the celebration and the key historical moments leading up to it.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Stock prices can be a noisy signal - some declines aren't bad and some increases reflect policy choices that hurt normal people. But past few weeks' declines are unambiguously bad - they are correct predictions that the US economy will be poorer because of Trump policies. www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...
epi.org
The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together
Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Just noting that Congress can stop the market carnage anytime they want to by rolling back these tariffs. 100% in their power. They're watching a house ablaze with a firehose sitting at their feet and just refusing to use it. GOP leadership, not the Fed, should be having emergency meetings today.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
The recent market implosion is mostly about the crazy approach to tariffs the admin is taking, but this crazy approach also likely opened eyes to just how much pain is implied in all sorts of other Trump/GOP policies. For example, the Senate budget resolution is incredibly irresponsible. 1
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Liz Truss is very excited to hand off the "Dumbest Macro Policymaker in the World" sash to Donald Trump.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
This take is wearing ok. The stock market is a noisy signal and doesn't generally correlate tightly at all with broad-based economic security...but in recent weeks its moves are highly informative. 1 www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...
epi.org
The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together
Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...
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Mark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Based on the replies l, it looks like there a lot of fed workers on @bsky.app I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now Thanks for your service to our country
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show those initial federal UI claims from the last few weeks have translated into insured continuing claims, up by nearly 50% from this time last year. #EconSky
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Does "running the govt more like a business" at least mean that the dummies who cost it $500 billion (with a 'b') get fired? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
Tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRS
Staff cuts and disruptions related to the U.S. DOGE Service have officials bracing for a sharp loss of revenue.
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
This continues to be the biggest story in the country: DOGE has already squandered half a trillion dollars in 6 weeks. Not billion. half a trillion, $500 billion talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/irs-p...
talkingpointsmemo.com
IRS Predicts DOGE Lost Half a Trillion Dollars for the USA
The Post reports today that the IRS’ internal projections estimate that the...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
This is really good and 100% right. 1 cepr.net/publications...
cepr.net
How Quickly Would Elon Musk Have Been Fired If He Worked in the Private Sector?
In slightly over two months, Elon Musk and DOGE have committed more major blunders than a million bureaucrats would do in a lifetime.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Briefing Book - one of my favorite SubStacks - graciously allowed us to guest post about our new data tool and what it tells us about how well the US labor market and economic policy have been generating broadly-shared prosperity in recent decades. 1 www.briefingbook.info/p/deliberate...
briefingbook.info
Deliberate policy decisions have disempowered workers and increased labor market inequality
The new State of Working America Data Library shows the latest trends in productivity, wages, labor markets, unionization and CEO pay
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Seems like the self-regarding "facts don't care about your feelings" capitalists looking for hard numbers on efficiency shouldn't be actively destroying data? 1 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
Sweeping statistical purges are part of a broader attempt to reinvent “truth.”
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Adrianna McIntyre @adrianna.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Was just talking to a friend earlier today who would file ethics paperwork so she could accept a glass of wine at a health policy happy hour hosted at a think tank
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Jordan Matsudaira @jdmatsudaira.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
The dismantling of NCES is insane and will critically hobble progress in improving education - this agency is so important it existed more than 100 years before the creation of Department of Education.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
These small business owners seem to realize that they won't be able to just call up the White House and make some rhetorical commitment to investing in America to get some tailored help.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 12/03/2025
Illegal orders trying to hide evidence of other illegal orders. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...
nytimes.com
U.S.A.I.D. Official Orders Employees to Shred or Burn Classified and Personnel Records
Union representatives demanded that the aid agency follow the law stated in the Federal Records Act. Defense lawyers argued that officials had not destroyed personnel records and would not destroy any...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Every time I hear something this I'll just remind people that the Trump admin inherited a very strong economy. The path of not doing dumb things and riding a wave of unearned credit was totally open to them. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
epi.org
President-elect Trump is inheriting a historically strong economy
President-elect Trump will inherit unquestionably the strongest economy for an incoming administration since the George W. Bush administration. That strong economic performance heading up to the 2001 ...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
In the year before the Trump administration took over, inflation-adjusted stock prices rose just under 30%. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
epi.org
President-elect Trump is inheriting a historically strong economy
President-elect Trump will inherit unquestionably the strongest economy for an incoming administration since the George W. Bush administration. That strong economic performance heading up to the 2001 ...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
These are great. On the alcohol sales trendline, when i looked at that there was no trend from 2007-2014 and then it started rising. If you calculated the "pre-pandemic trend" as 2007-2019 we'd still be far above the trendline on alcohol spending today. 1
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
This is a really important point. Just a giant strikeout for self-proclaimed fraudbusters. It's mostly driven by happily low levels of fraud (not zero - but low) in federal spending, but also driven by DOGE bringing a pathetically low level of basic knowledge of the public sector to their job?
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Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Why is President Trump attacking the Postal Service? Your questions answered. www.epi.org/publication/...
epi.org
Why is President Trump attacking the Postal Service? Your questions answered.
What has the president said about the Postal Service? The Washington Post reported recently that President Trump planned to fire the governing board of the U.S. Postal Service and merge the agency wit...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
It would have been trivially easy for the Trump admin to do lots of the awful things they want to do w/o wrecking the macroeconomy - they just needed to avoid doing the dumbest things possible. The incompetence is jaw-dropping. 1 bsky.app/profile/josh...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Seems about right? www.wired.com/story/doge-i...
wired.com
DOGE Is the Deep State
A shadowy group of unelected figures reshaping the federal government to their own benefit from the inside? Sounds familiar!
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
This idea is literally the most-wasteful possible use of any fiscal resource. It is crazy-making to have it floated in the same weeks that useful, hard-working federal employees are being laid-off under the guise of "efficiency".
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 07/03/2025
The federal government is the largest employer of veterans in the US Trump’s federal workforce cuts will jeopardize the careers of nearly 900,000 veterans and veteran or military spouses New from me @epi.org
screenshot of a table from an Economic Policy Institute report showing that civilian federal government employs 

3,024,000 people

758,300 veterans

244,500 spouse of veterans or military

895,500 veterans and spouses of veterans or military
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
This piece is worth reading. I've learned a lot from Jason over the years but agree with Gene that his critiques of the Biden admin's approach to macro policy have been unconvincing. democracyjournal.org/arguments/tr...
democracyjournal.org
“Tragedy” of a One-Sided Biden Critique
Gene Sperling responds to Jason Furman's questionable crusade against Biden economic policy.
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Hilary Wething @hilwething.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
A key thing to think about when interpreting jobs numbers is the timing of Trump policies. Next month, we are sure to see the impact of federal layoffs in the economy, but there are other, slower moving but certainly harmful policy trajectories to watch out for. 1/
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Arthur Delaney @delaneyrules.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
The Trump admin canceled contracts with Maine's CDC supporting "enumeration at birth" -- the way 99% of American babies get their Social Security Numbers. Now Maine parents have to visit field offices in-person to get their newborn SSNs Why? No reason given. www.huffpost.com/entry/maine-...
huffpost.com
Trump Administration Forces Maine Parents To Visit Social Security Offices To Register Newborns
The Social Security Administration canceled contracts that allowed Maine parents to sign up newborns for Social Security numbers at the hospital.
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Trump inherited an economy that was firing on all cylinders. Now, just weeks into his tenure, the outlook is far gloomier -- and the sudden deterioration is due almost entirely to his policies and the uncertainty they have created. @colbylsmith.bsky.social #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/b...
nytimes.com
Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook (Gift Article)
Economic forecasts have deteriorated in recent weeks, reflecting the upheaval from federal layoffs, tariff moves and immigration roundups.
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Hilary Wething @hilwething.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
We're off to the races this morning folks: Payroll up by 151,000, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 %-- I trust BLS (they're professionals) AND this reference period is before many of the government layoffs started happening
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
You might expect a negative #NumbersDay in this jobs report because of reported layoffs in and out of the government, but, it hasn't shown up in the data yet. Unfortunately, this is the calm before the storm as trouble is clearly brewing and the pain will be felt across the economy in coming months.
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Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
The economy added 151,000 jobs in Feb—roughly in line with the prior 12 months average increase of 168,000. The household data were softer, with unemployment ticking up to 4.1% and the prime-age EPOP decreasing by two tenths. But overall, a solid report. 1/
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
CBO (valuably) confirms basic arithmetic here - no way that large Medicaid cuts aren't necessary under House budget resolution. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
GOP must cut Medicaid or Medicare to achieve budget goals, CBO finds
The nonpartisan bookkeeper said there’s no other way to cut $1.5 trillion from the budget over the next decade.
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David Dayen @ddayen.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
NEW: The Social Security Administration is cutting staff. Field offices will be affected. The same thing happened in the 80s, when 21% of field office jobs were cut. And a new research paper finds that it resulted in 80,000 eligible Americans not getting earned benefits. prospect.org/health/2025-...
prospect.org
How Social Security Administration Cuts Affect You
A timely research paper looking at SSA staff cuts in the 1980s found that it led to tens of thousands of Americans not getting their earned benefits.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Millionth reminder of the fundamentally strong economy that was inherited by the current administration. They were on an easy glide path to maintaining this for a long time if they had resisted radically stupid measures.
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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show the first signs of the federal worker layoffs. Federal Unemployment Insurance claims ticked up for the week ending February 22, 2.5 times higher than the prior week. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Wondering if this is the free speech revolution the twitter-files type people were hoping for? www.propublica.org/article/ted-...
propublica.org
A Study of Mint Plants. A Device to Stop Bleeding. This Is the Scientific Research Ted Cruz Calls “Woke.”
The senator flagged thousands of National Science Foundation grants for using words like “female” and “diversify.” A ProPublica analysis found numerous examples of projects caught up in his crude meth...
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Kathryn Anne Edwards @kedseconomist.com · 03/03/2025
This might be the paper I'm most proud of; the Monthly Labor Review is my favorite journal. We use monthly, longitudinal data from the SIPP and use employment history to distinguish high quality and low quality nonemployee (aka alternative, flexible, contract) work. www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/202...
bls.gov
Using earnings history to characterize quality of nonemployee employment
Gig workers, contractors, and other nonemployees have backgrounds and earnings that are distinct from traditional employees.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Disappearing data: Pre-Trump, there were 308,000 datasets available on Data.gov. It’s since dipped to 304,621 as of Feb. 21. That’s 3,379 datasets removed — but what was on those pages? thehill.com/homenews/adm...
thehill.com
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 03/03/2025
This person has no idea how many people have died, or will die, as a result of shattering our entire global infrastructure for providing lifesaving assistance. He did no analysis of those impacts before the reckless and illegal obliteration of USAID. These statements are made-up assertions.
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Charlie Warzel @cwarzel.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
I thought this blog was really smart about the societal conditions that give us Elon Musk. drafts.interfluidity.com/2025/02/25/a...
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Just reminding people that this admin inherited a fundamentally strong economy. The speed with which they're blowing it up is impressive. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
epi.org
President-elect Trump is inheriting a historically strong economy
President-elect Trump will inherit unquestionably the strongest economy for an incoming administration since the George W. Bush administration. That strong economic performance heading up to the 2001 ...
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David Dayen @ddayen.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Objectively pro-fraud www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/c...
cnbc.com
CFPB drops lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo over Zelle fraud
Since Acting Director Russell Vought has taken over the CFPB, the agency has dropped at least a half dozen cases brought by his predecessor, Rohit Chopra.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 04/03/2025
From @hshierholz.bsky.social @epi.org: "the Trump-Vance administration agenda will be profoundly destructive to the incomes and economic security for both the most vulnerable families and the broad middle class" www.epi.org/publication/...
In considering the topic of “unleashing” America’s workforce and strengthening the economy, I make three main points in this testimony: (1) the Trump-Vance administration has inherited unquestionably the strongest economy for an incoming administration in a quarter-century;1 (2) that strength was driven in large part by economic policy choices by the prior administration and Congress; and (3) the Trump-Vance administration agenda will be profoundly destructive to the incomes and economic security for both the most vulnerable families and the broad middle class. The administration is aiming to gut key income support and safety net programs that provide direct support to tens of millions of working families, and the chaos and uncertainty they are intentionally sowing with reckless power grabs over key economic institutions will likely cause an economic crisis unless it is stopped.
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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
I guess the "stock market veto" on dumb Trump administration ideas was also not supposed to be taken literally.
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