Reposted by James LambertG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026This is such good work 212010
Reposted by James LambertAriel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026STOP QUOTE TWEETING THE POLL ACCOUNTS THAT NEVER LINK BACK TO THE POLLS THEY'RE MENTIONING thank you 141091108
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.the-downballot.comMassive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since WatergateThere’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote 13401129
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/09/2026South Dakota’s Republican secretary of state, Monae Johnson, just endorsed the Democrat running to succeed her, Terrence Davis. Johnson lost the GOP nod at a party convention in June to Heather Baxter, a member of the state Freedom Caucus who wants to hand-count all ballots.dakotawarcollege.comA Personal Statement from Monae L Johnson, South Dakota Secretary of State: Why I Am Supporting Terrence Davis. (Guest Column)A Personal Statement from Monae L. Johnson, South Dakota Secretary of State: Why I Am Supporting Terrence Davis A personal statement on judgment, competen 7515198
Reposted by James LambertStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Rigging the Electoral College isn’t the goal of illegally excluding noncitizens—this map is a minor tradeoff for turbocharging gerrymandering 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 Texas, Florida, etc. Excluding noncitizens from redistricting would let the GOP pack more Dem votes into fewer seats—making the rest whiter & more GOP 114857
Reposted by James LambertG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/09/2026New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...gelliottmorris.comThe race raters are lowballing the DemocratsBased on my analysis of their historical ratings, Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are probably underestimating Democrats' House win probability by about 30 percentage points 1330485
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026Ouch www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/u... 26110
James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 16/09/2026How are they allowed to do that when "No Going Back" is literally their name 🤔 171
Reposted by James LambertAlberta NDP @albertandp.ca · 15/09/2026WATCH LIVE youtube.com/live/ktSe_U9SDqo?featur… BETTER IS POSSIBLE: CALGARY-SHAW PROVES IT WITH HISTORIC ALBERTA NDP WIN youtube.comBETTER IS POSSIBLE: CALGARY-SHAW PROVES IT WITH HISTORIC ALBERTA NDP WINYouTube video by Naheed Nenshi 46416
James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Watching this guy be shamed into silence was extremely satisfying. 000
James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 10/09/2026"He may have terrible hygiene. Yeah, I smell it too. He might not tip his waitress. He may have borrowed your car and returned it with a few dents." 000
James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 29/08/2026When your "best" foot forward on a challenging issue is completely incoherent messaging like this, just fucking pack it in, man. What the hell is this. 020
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/08/2026Some pieces say Brandon Dukes will be first Democrat to represent this seat in Butler County since 1999, but the GOP's hold goes back even further than that. Dem state Rep. Patricia Carone switched parties in 1993 and won her first term with GOP in 1994, starting winning streak that just snapped. 04512
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/08/2026Democrat Brandon Dukes appears to have flipped a GOP-held Pennsylvania House seat in Butler County that Trump carried 59-40 in 2024. Dukes' win would give Democrats, who won a 1-seat majority in both 2022 and 2024, a big pickup ahead of the fall when the whole chamber is up.post-gazette.comA Democrat is leading in a special election in Butler County — a district Trump won by 18 pointsIn a stunning election in a deep-red state House district in southwestern Butler County, Democrat Brandon Dukes was leading Republican Scott Timko by a... 132268
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/08/2026Quite the season finale! The last pre-November special election of the year ends with a Dem flip in a Trump+18 district in a chamber that’s been divided by just one seat for almost four years. Wow.docs.google.comThe Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle 212734
Reposted by James LambertTaniel @taniel.bsky.social · 12/07/2026A key part of Lindsey Graham's legacy: when he called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/12/u... 4134961023
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 10/07/2026Graham Platner finally files withdrawal paperwork. Dems can now officially pick a replacement. x.com/hollyotterbe... 940567
James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 19/06/2026So let me get this right: The GOP messaging of the day, somehow, is both "fuck yeah we killed their navy" and "Iran deserves to be able to defend itself"? 1207
Reposted by James LambertUncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 12/06/2026Wow, @mcimaps.bsky.social pointed this out on the other site, but the Republicans did NOT get a candidate in Florida's #HD47, a Trump+3 seat that they currently hold, meaning that the Democrats have automatically FLIPPED IT! 319037
James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 09/06/2026The most offensive thing about Spencer Pratt is that for a few brief moments I was somehow expected to know or care who he is. 0151
Reposted by James LambertNiall Stanage @niallstanage.bsky.social · 07/06/2026This is a devastating interview. Scott Pelley tells the NYT that Bari Weiss directly put a “thumb on the scale” for Trump over the killing of Renee Good. Here’s his explanation of exactly what happened. 7840341590
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/05/2026New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has endorsed activist Darializa Avila Chevalier's campaign to defeat Rep. Adriano Espaillat in next month's Democratic primary. #NY13 011426
Reposted by James LambertKyle Clark @kylec.bsky.social · 20/05/2026Gov Jared Polis told a Colorado Sun event that his decision to give clemency to Tina Peters "will be remembered fondly." He was later interrupted by protesters carrying an enormous banner reading EAT SHIT POLIS coloradosun.com/2026/05/19/j...coloradosun.comJared Polis says his Tina Peters decisionGov. Jared Polis made the remarks at The Colorado Sun’s annual legislative recap event, only to be drowned out by a small group of protesters 681108752456
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 20/05/2026Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R) will face former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo (D) in general election for open GOP-held #KY06. Trump won it 57-42 in 2023, but Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear carried it 60-40 the previous year. National Democrats have reserved close to $700,000 in fall ad time. 17216
Reposted by James LambertStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 18/05/2026The NYT's maps would hurt Black voters & are de facto GOP gerrymanders. The whole premise is flawed. It’s nonsensical that Dems would 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦 a seat with "colorblind" nonpartisan maps—the GOP gerrymandered every state here except for AL & LA. Here's how nonpartisan maps might actually look. [Thread] 818083
Reposted by James LambertQuinn Yeargain @yeargain.bsky.social · 09/05/2026this is the closest I've ever come to actually suggesting a "one neat trick" suggestion for anything, but I'm so serious here. the Virginia Constitution gives the legislature the power to set retirement ages for judges "REGARDLESS OF THE TERM TO WHICH ELECTED OR APPOINTED." make it 54 right now.the-downballot.comHow Virginia Democrats can overturn the redistricting ruling: Retire the Supreme CourtThe state Constitution gives lawmakers complete latitude to set the judicial retirement age. They should use it. 14067012030
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/03/2026Florida Democrat Brian Nathan's victory is now the 30th red-to-blue flip of a legislative seat since Donald Trump returned to the White House. During that span, the GOP has flipped zero seats. docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 171213354
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/03/2026Oh yeah, in case you haven't bookmarked it yet, our special election Big Board is the original recipe. We've been tracking these races like a hawk for a decade—accept no substitutes! Dems outperforming 2024 presidential results by an average of 13 points.docs.google.comThe Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle 113638
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/03/2026The second Florida flip of the night! Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy vet and union leader, just won a GOP-held seat in the state Senate. Our full writeup -->the-downballot.comBREAKING: Florida Democrats just picked up a second seat in Tuesday's special electionsBrian Nathan's win is the 30th red-to-blue flip of Trump's second term. The GOP has flipped zero seats in that span. 11647190
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/03/2026BREAKING: Democrats just flipped the Florida House district that includes Mar-a-Lago. Yes, Donald Trump is going to be represented by a Democrat. Our complete recap -->the-downballot.comFlorida Democrats flip Donald Trump's home district in Palm BeachEmily Gregory will now represent Mar-a-Lago—and Trump himself 401269385
Reposted by James LambertG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/03/2026I thought this segment from Enten was bad use of polling www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-22...gelliottmorris.comCNN's "100% MAGA Trump approval" segment omits key nuance for viralityPlus, voters overwhelmingly oppose putting boots on the ground in Iran. Your weekly political data roundup for March 22, 2026. 1161031125
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 12/03/2026We're delighted to see people pay so much attention to special elections and legislative elections these days! Tracking these races is one of our favorite things to do. It's also a lot of work! We'd be really grateful if folks citing that figure of 28 R→D flips would link back to our tracker:docs.google.comThe Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle 213049
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 11/03/2026Because you sickos love this, here's the updated flip count in legislative seats since the start of Trump's second term, following tonight's Dem win in New Hampshire: Democrats: 28 Republicans: 0 docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 27974330
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 11/03/2026JUST IN: Democrats have flipped a Trump+9 seat in the New Hampshire House, per reporter Kevin Landrigan. Republicans outspent Dems by a considerable margin. This is now the 10th special election flip for Ds in Trump's second term, versus zero for the GOP. sos.tn.gov/elections/20... 151443392
Reposted by James LambertUncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 04/03/2026BIG lead for Alex Holladay in the early vote in the Arkansas #HD70 (Harris+2) special election. Very much on track for a flip for the Dems here tonight in suburban Little Rock 319549
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 08/02/2026The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas. Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points. Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->the-downballot.comBreaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickupRepublicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return 262009580
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 01/02/2026BREAKING: Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet just won a *massive* landslide to flip a deep-red Senate district. He's up by 14 points in a Trump+17 seat—an overperformance of more than 30 points. How did he do it? Here's our full writeup:the-downballot.comBreaking: Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to winTaylor Rehmet just flipped a deep-red seat—and gave his party a shot in the arm 201046318
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/01/2026What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly. New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.the-downballot.comMinnesotans just showed they’ll ‘crawl over broken glass’ to vote, despite ICE terrorIf Trump sends troops to disrupt voting, he could face a massive backlash 14480188
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/01/2026LOL. Despite this being a Harris+71 seat, Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai won tonight by a *91-point* margin. Easily one of the wildest overperformances we’ve ever seen, given the district’s deep, deep blue lean. 7644151
Reposted by James LambertAdam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 06/01/2026one takeaway from the grok noncon porn thing is that much of the media just isn't interested in an issue they can't pretend has two sides or that doesn't give them an opportunity to shit on the left. Also it would be uncomfortable to justify remaining on twitter after acknowledging it 180188364644
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/12/2025It appears that vote-counting may be done in KY. If so, it's an astounding *42-point* overperformance for Democrat Gary Clemons, a union leader and Army vet. This district moved to the right last year, from Biden+10 to Harris+5, but the GOP never seriously contested it. Big Board updated -->docs.google.comThe Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle 413639
Reposted by James LambertStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 11/12/2025BREAKING: Indiana Republicans FAILED to pass a new 9-0 congressional gerrymander after enough GOP senators sided with Dems. The GOP's 7-2 map stays in place. Trump is trying to re-gerrymander maps nationwide. At least 11 Indiana Rs got death threats after he called for primaries—but it still failed 401786359
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 10/12/2025BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset. It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero. Read our complete writeup here -->the-downballot.comBreaking: Georgia Democrats flip conservative seat in yet another upsetThat's 25 pickups for Democrats nationwide this year—and zero for Republicans 9671241
Reposted by James LambertThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 10/12/2025Some (more) very big Dem overperformances on the Big Board tonight so far: FL-SD-11: Republicans hold deep-red district, but Dems overperform by 22 pts FL-HD-90: Dems hold blue-leaning district, outperforming 2024 by 17 and, perhaps more importantly, beating 2020 by 6docs.google.comThe Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle 321260
