iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2024

the october surprise is october being tomorrow

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 6h

There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...

AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 2h

Metro job data is in today, & 38 of the 50 largest metros have gained jobs over the last year Fastest: SLC (2.5%), Raleigh (2.2%), San Jose (1.6%), Charlotte (1.5%), Las Vegas (1.5%) Slowest: DC (-2%), Portland (1.5%), Indianapolis (-1.1%), Richmond (-.8%), Hampton Roads (-.6%)

a graph of change in nonfarm payrolls year on year by metro area

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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE @golikehellmachine.com · 59m

if you are a republican vp and you’re pulling the fire alarm about fucking idaho before the first day of october, you are in very, very bad shape

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 4h

the brandonization of Donald Trump

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 5h

We might have a better sense on what’s going on in Vermont soon, State Navigate will be polling it

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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 7h

Incredible chutzpah from a Congress whose one major legislative act was a budget bill that among other things imposed significant new administrative burdens on Medicaid recipients

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 5h

The median voter is stupid but they're not *so* stupid that they fall for this. Most people can tell that this is a cynical attempt at winning votes lol. If anything the median voter will prob view this as an insult to their intelligence

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 6h

Its so funny the “free money” cheat is somehow one of the most unpopular things Trump has done.

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The San Francisco Standard @sfstandard.com · 10h

Tech royalty has a new answer for the angry villagers. 🎨: Amy Kurzweil

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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 10h

Belt to ass #NCPol #NCSen

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Erin Reed @erininthemorning.com · 11h

When Third Way says that Dems should hold off their anti-trans strategies, you know things are changing. The organization tends to be more centrist, and they are noticing the same thing the far-right is... the Republican anti-trans campaign cycle is NOT working this year.

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 19h

The question by-and-large is not whether the midterms will be good for Dems or not, it is whether it'll be a blue wave or blue tsunami

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 19h

Justice isn't losing in November but if he's doing this that means Republicans are in full panic mode. I think there's a broad consensus on the coming blue wave that is only really opposed by chriswithans et al

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 19h

Yeah Brent is right. Anti-Zionism is not antisemitism but also there are a lot of online far-leftists who are spouting antisemitic nonsense

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 20h

This one image is probably why Karl Rove is freaking the fuck out

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Liv Agar @livagar.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Reading about politics

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 21h

I made this live on-stream, shows the 5 Marist polls we have gotten in late September!

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David @davidslosttt.bsky.social · 21h

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 21h

Michigan Polling: Senate: 🔵El-Sayed: 51% 🔴Rogers: 44% Governor: 🔵Benson: 53% 🔴James: 41% Marist / Sept 27, 2026 (Current MI-SEN Model Result Is: DEM 52% - GOP 47%) (Current MI-GOV Model Result Is: DEM 56% - GOP 43%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/republican...

unitedstatespolling.com

Republicans Are in Full Midterm Panic

Democrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

That "summer polling sugar high" Dems were supposedly on sure hasn't shown any signs of abating

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Solar power also continues to skyrocket in Texas, with generation up 47% compared to last year Over the last twelve months, solar has made up 12.6% of Texas' electricity, a record high!

a graph of Texas monthly solar generation

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Official monthly data is in, and US solar power generation hit a new record high, up 21% compared to this time last year!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Can a Democratic Socialist flip a Republican-held seat in DuPage County? We'll find out in #SD24 as DSA-backed Ben McAdams challenges Republican incumbent Seth Lewis in this Harris+3 seat. Lewis is a rare labor-backed Republican (AFL-CIO endorsed). SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Notably, the current generic ballot margin is significantly better for Democrats than it was for them in 2018 at this point in time.

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Generic ballot, 9/29/2026 Margin: D+9.37% -------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 50.37% 🔴Republicans: 41%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes (9/29/2026) Ohio: Tossup --> Tilt D Kansas: Likely R --> Lean R

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Senate forecast update, 9/29/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 61.2% (🔺2.4%) 🔴Republicans: 38.8% (🔻2.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.6 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 48.4 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities for each contested Senate seat as per SnoutCounter Senate forecast

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes (This is gonna be a long one today) AZ-08: Very Likely R --> Likely R CA-48: Likely D --> Very Likely D CO-08: Lean D --> Likely D FL-22: Lean D --> Likely D FL-27: Likely R --> Lean R GA-01: Very Likely R --> Likely R GA-11: Safe R --> Very Likely R

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/29/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 81.8% (🔺2.5%) 🔴Republicans: 18.2% (🔻2.5%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 240.4 (🔺2.2) 🔴Republicans: 194.6 (🔻2.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities by congressional district as determined by the SnoutCounter House forecast

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AIPAC Tracker @trackaipac.com · 29/09/2026

Google Maps has released updated satellite images of Gaza. These images should be front page news around the world.

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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Bruh this is a poll @statenavigate.org is doing of the seat Dems won in the special election in Iowa last year. They will continue to weigh and tweak the numbers but this district voted for Trump by 21

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 29/09/2026

mein gott!

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Evan Urquhart @evanurquhart.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Definitely click through on this story for the quotes from the Third Way spokesperson, who AGREED Democratic candidates should NOT adopt Republican language on trans issues. I was floored - even tried to get Billie to put it in the headline. This is not just analysis, these quotes are news.

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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

What did he see?!?!?!?!

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This fallacy drives like three-quarters of political punditry. Entire pseudosciences are built off this fallacy (e.g. racialism). The median voter is utterly captive to false causality

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I think people have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation" enough times that a lot presume it to be common knowledge and don't recognize just how often people conflate the two, even those with knowledge of the fallacy!

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The mayoral race has all the headlines, but one of the starkest choices for Angelenos is further downballot: the race for city attorney. From enforcing tenants' rights to policing homelessness, this office matters matters on all sorts of things. Learn more in our new Bolts reporting!

boltsmag.org

The Most Overlooked But Wide-Reaching Office on the Los Angeles Ballot - Bolts

In June, when Hydee Feldstein Soto became the first Los Angeles city attorney to lose a primary reelection race in nearly 100 years, her ouster put the spotlight on an... Read More

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 29/09/2026

Quality Ohio Senate Polls Since 8/1: Marist (9/24-27): D+8 Quantus (9/21-23): D+1 YouGov (9/1-10): D+3 Fox News (8/6-10): D+8

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Susan Collins was accused of massive bribery and corruption days ago, glad everyone is focused on the important issues

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Fixed a few typos on the Senate forecast page which erroneously referred to things as relating to the House forecast rather than the Senate forecast, apologies for those errors

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Likely due to the recent Hart Research poll (Dem partisan poll sponsored by House Majority PAC) showing Leonard up by 1 pt

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

OH-15 is a tossup, apparently (57% chance of Rep win)

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 29/09/2026

In VA-01, early voters so far are moderately bluer than in 2024 and slightly bluer than in 2025. Lower-propensity voters are coming from the bluest areas, an encouraging sign for Democrats beyond simply front-loading turnout. It’s still very early in the EV period.

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