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lunaria/sapphire

@hackquantumcpp.bsky.social
171 followers 224 following 637 posts

Math/stats & physics/astro enthusiast | Data & election nerd | Pro-housing, pro-transit | Anti-carceral, socialist, urbanist | Abolish ICE, Free Palestine I run @snoutcounter.bsky.social Profile pic and banner from APOD (APOD 1/14/26 & 7/7/26)

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The San Francisco Standard @sfstandard.com · 4h
Tech royalty has a new answer for the angry villagers. 🎨: Amy Kurzweil
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 4h
Belt to ass #NCPol #NCSen
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Erin Reed @erininthemorning.com · 6h
When Third Way says that Dems should hold off their anti-trans strategies, you know things are changing. The organization tends to be more centrist, and they are noticing the same thing the far-right is... the Republican anti-trans campaign cycle is NOT working this year.
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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 13h
Justice isn't losing in November but if he's doing this that means Republicans are in full panic mode. I think there's a broad consensus on the coming blue wave that is only really opposed by chriswithans et al
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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 14h
Yeah Brent is right. Anti-Zionism is not antisemitism but also there are a lot of online far-leftists who are spouting antisemitic nonsense
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 14h
This one image is probably why Karl Rove is freaking the fuck out
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Liv Agar @livagar.bsky.social · 19h
Reading about politics
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 15h
I made this live on-stream, shows the 5 Marist polls we have gotten in late September!
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David @davidslosttt.bsky.social · 16h
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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 15h
Michigan Polling: Senate: 🔵El-Sayed: 51% 🔴Rogers: 44% Governor: 🔵Benson: 53% 🔴James: 41% Marist / Sept 27, 2026 (Current MI-SEN Model Result Is: DEM 52% - GOP 47%) (Current MI-GOV Model Result Is: DEM 56% - GOP 43%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/republican...
unitedstatespolling.com
Republicans Are in Full Midterm Panic
Democrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further
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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 19h
That "summer polling sugar high" Dems were supposedly on sure hasn't shown any signs of abating
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 22h
Solar power also continues to skyrocket in Texas, with generation up 47% compared to last year Over the last twelve months, solar has made up 12.6% of Texas' electricity, a record high!
a graph of Texas monthly solar generation
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 22h
Official monthly data is in, and US solar power generation hit a new record high, up 21% compared to this time last year!
a graph of US monthly solar generation
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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Can a Democratic Socialist flip a Republican-held seat in DuPage County? We'll find out in #SD24 as DSA-backed Ben McAdams challenges Republican incumbent Seth Lewis in this Harris+3 seat. Lewis is a rare labor-backed Republican (AFL-CIO endorsed). SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 23h
Notably, the current generic ballot margin is significantly better for Democrats than it was for them in 2018 at this point in time.
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 23h
Generic ballot, 9/29/2026 Margin: D+9.37% -------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 50.37% 🔴Republicans: 41%
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 23h
SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes (9/29/2026) Ohio: Tossup --> Tilt D Kansas: Likely R --> Lean R
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 23h
Senate forecast update, 9/29/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 61.2% (🔺2.4%) 🔴Republicans: 38.8% (🔻2.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.6 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 48.4 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)
Map of win probabilities for each contested Senate seat as per SnoutCounter Senate forecast
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 23h
SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes (This is gonna be a long one today) AZ-08: Very Likely R --> Likely R CA-48: Likely D --> Very Likely D CO-08: Lean D --> Likely D FL-22: Lean D --> Likely D FL-27: Likely R --> Lean R GA-01: Very Likely R --> Likely R GA-11: Safe R --> Very Likely R
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 23h
House forecast update, 9/29/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 81.8% (🔺2.5%) 🔴Republicans: 18.2% (🔻2.5%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 240.4 (🔺2.2) 🔴Republicans: 194.6 (🔻2.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)
Map of win probabilities by congressional district as determined by the SnoutCounter House forecast
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AIPAC Tracker @trackaipac.com · 29/09/2026
Google Maps has released updated satellite images of Gaza. These images should be front page news around the world.
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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Bruh this is a poll @statenavigate.org is doing of the seat Dems won in the special election in Iowa last year. They will continue to weigh and tweak the numbers but this district voted for Trump by 21
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 29/09/2026
mein gott!
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Evan Urquhart @evanurquhart.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Definitely click through on this story for the quotes from the Third Way spokesperson, who AGREED Democratic candidates should NOT adopt Republican language on trans issues. I was floored - even tried to get Billie to put it in the headline. This is not just analysis, these quotes are news.
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What did he see?!?!?!?!
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
WE HAVE A NEW #OHSEN poll from Marist Sherrod Brown 51% Jon Husted 43% maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midter...
maristpoll.marist.edu
Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state...
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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I think people have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation" enough times that a lot presume it to be common knowledge and don't recognize just how often people conflate the two, even those with knowledge of the fallacy!
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The mayoral race has all the headlines, but one of the starkest choices for Angelenos is further downballot: the race for city attorney. From enforcing tenants' rights to policing homelessness, this office matters matters on all sorts of things. Learn more in our new Bolts reporting!
boltsmag.org
The Most Overlooked But Wide-Reaching Office on the Los Angeles Ballot - Bolts
In June, when Hydee Feldstein Soto became the first Los Angeles city attorney to lose a primary reelection race in nearly 100 years, her ouster put the spotlight on an... Read More
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 29/09/2026
Quality Ohio Senate Polls Since 8/1: Marist (9/24-27): D+8 Quantus (9/21-23): D+1 YouGov (9/1-10): D+3 Fox News (8/6-10): D+8
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Susan Collins was accused of massive bribery and corruption days ago, glad everyone is focused on the important issues
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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Fixed a few typos on the Senate forecast page which erroneously referred to things as relating to the House forecast rather than the Senate forecast, apologies for those errors
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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
OH-15 is a tossup, apparently (57% chance of Rep win)
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VoteHub @votehub.com · 29/09/2026
In VA-01, early voters so far are moderately bluer than in 2024 and slightly bluer than in 2025. Lower-propensity voters are coming from the bluest areas, an encouraging sign for Democrats beyond simply front-loading turnout. It’s still very early in the EV period.
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 29/09/2026
Five counties I'm going to be watching on Election Day in Texas: 1. Williamson County- Suburban county in Talarico's home metro of Austin, needs to win this Trump +2 county 2 & 3: Collin and Denton Counties- Suburban counties in Dallas Trump won by double digits. Talarico has to get close.
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Urban Land Rent 🇸🇴🚰 @urbanlandrent.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
If you hate women enough pedophile gangsters will be able to trick you into putting them in charge of everyone’s tax money.
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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 28/09/2026
Notably, travel times also did not increase outside the congestion zone. This mirrors what we have seen in other aggregate congestion pricing impacts. For example, it was predicted that drivers would change their routes to avoid the zone, creating new congestion; this, too, did not happen.
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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NYC’s congestion pricing program cut ambulance travel times by over a minute
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Marist Poll @maristpoll.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Set your alarm! Coming at midnight, our next Battleground State poll. The latest numbers in Ohio's Senate and Governor races... AND where Ohio voters stand on President Donald Trump. maristpoll.com/latest-polls
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Marist in Ohio dropping tonight at midnight as well
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Ben Raderstorf @raders.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This poll from Cook is bonkers. A *huge* plurality of voters (43% overall, 61% of Ds) want Dems to focus on changing the political system overall vs. just opposing (21%, 36% of Ds) or working with Trump (35%, 3% of Ds).
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VoteHub @votehub.com · 29/09/2026
36 days until the first polls close in the 2026 midterms.
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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
@statenavigate.org is doing a live poll of deep red red WV SD-1 (R+40) and with the caveat that it's a live poll and they don't have all the responses in uhhhh..... projects.statenavigate.com/interactives...
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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
There are people on here and Twitter who will tell you with a straight face that the Gen Z polling w/a supermajority caring about the economy, jobs, healthcare, and housing as their top issues are fake, and that the real top issue for Gen Z is how effeminate Dem staffers are.
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I see people putting AI in the same bucket as NFTs (speculative technology that will go away when the bubble pops), but I think the internet is the better comp. Sure there's some early bubble-y activity, but the underlying technology is real it's going to dramatically change things.
Hand-drawn Venn diagram titled "Bubbles," with four overlapping circles: Beanie Babies, AI, NFTs, and Dot-com.

Each alone: "Gamble on plushies!" / "Gamble on LLMs!" / "Gamble on JPEGs!" / "Gamble on HTML!"

Beanie Babies + AI: "The products tend to have cutesy first names."
Beanie Babies + NFTs: "Who will own the rarest fake monkey?"
AI + Dot-com: "Genuinely important underlying technology."
NFTs + Dot-com: "This URL could be worth millions!"

Every bubble but Dot-com: "Mostly in private markets."
Every bubble but NFTs: "Good people got hurt."
Every bubble but AI: "Never threatened life as we know it."
Every bubble but Beanie Babies: "Blame Silicon Valley."

All four: "Somebody got rich, but probably not you."
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Don't sleep on these five races to shock everyone. #FLGov #KY06 #CO04 #ORGov #KSSen PLUS #SCSen www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
independent.co.uk
These five midterm races may shock everyone on Election Day
From Florida to the Pacific Northwest to Kentucky, there are plenty of upsets in the making, senior Capitol Hill correspondent Eric Garcia writes
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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
God I love Angie Nixon. I hope she wins
Now @AshleyMoodyFL. Why would I want to abolish the police when I want you arrested and in jail for stealing $10 million from sick kids? BFFR
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Seamless Bay Area @seamlessbayareaca.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We are excited to announce our endorsement of three candidates in this November election: @valencia4actransit.bsky.social for AC Transit Ward 3 Sara Barz for BART Board of Directors District 8 And Robert Raburn for BART Board of Directors District 4
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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I recognize a gas tax holiday is popular among politicians from both sides of the aisle but it is still a horrendous idea that effectively defunds roads and public transit systems, and wont' do much to decrease gas prices in the long term
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Senate forecast update, 9/28/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 58.6% (no change) 🔴Republicans: 41.4% (no change) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.4 (🔺0.1) 🔴Republicans: 48.6 (🔻0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)
Map showing win probabilities by state with a Class II Senate race, September 28, 2026
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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
House forecast update, 9/28/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 79.3% (🔺0.2%) 🔴Republicans: 20.7% (🔻0.2%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 238.2 (🔺0.3) 🔴Republicans: 196.8 (🔻0.3) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)
Map of win probabilities by congressional district in the SnoutCounter House forecast, September 28, 2026
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