iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 6h

Generic ballot, 10/2/2026 Spread: D+9.06% ----------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 50.21% 🔴Republicans: 41.15%

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 6h

Trump's net approval on the issues, 10/2/2026 Crime: -7.99% Immigration: -11.97% Foreign policy: -25.22% Trade policy & tariffs: -26.57% Healthcare policy: -27.54% Economy: -31.24% Iran war: -33.61% Inflation & cost of living: -44.12%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 6h

Trump's Approval Rating, 10/2/2026 Net approval: -24.04% ----------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 35.9% 🟣Disapprove: 59.93%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 6h

SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday (10/2/2026) Kansas: Likely R --> Lean R

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 6h

Senate forecast update, 10/2/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 58.6% (🔺0.2%) 🔴Republicans: 41.4% (🔻0.2%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.4 (no change) 🔴Republicans: 48.6 (no change) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities in each contested Class II senate seat as per SnoutCounter Senate forecast, 10/2/2026

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 10h

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/2/26 AZ-08: Likely R --> Very Likely R IN-05: Tilt R --> Lean R KY-06: Lean R --> Tossup ME-02: Lean D --> Tilt D NC-09: Lean R --> Likely R PA-01: Lean R --> Tilt R TX-32: Likely R --> Very Likely R

111

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11h

House forecast update, 10/2/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 80.7% (🔻0.2%) 🔴Republicans: 19.3% (🔺0.2%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 239.7 (🔻0.1) 🔴Republicans: 195.4 (🔺0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities computed by the House forecast by congressional district

111

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Notably, the current generic ballot margin is significantly better for Democrats than it was for them in 2018 at this point in time.

0349

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Generic ballot, 9/29/2026 Margin: D+9.37% -------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 50.37% 🔴Republicans: 41%

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes (9/29/2026) Ohio: Tossup --> Tilt D Kansas: Likely R --> Lean R

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Senate forecast update, 9/29/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 61.2% (🔺2.4%) 🔴Republicans: 38.8% (🔻2.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.6 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 48.4 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities for each contested Senate seat as per SnoutCounter Senate forecast

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes (This is gonna be a long one today) AZ-08: Very Likely R --> Likely R CA-48: Likely D --> Very Likely D CO-08: Lean D --> Likely D FL-22: Lean D --> Likely D FL-27: Likely R --> Lean R GA-01: Very Likely R --> Likely R GA-11: Safe R --> Very Likely R

111

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/29/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 81.8% (🔺2.5%) 🔴Republicans: 18.2% (🔻2.5%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 240.4 (🔺2.2) 🔴Republicans: 194.6 (🔻2.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities by congressional district as determined by the SnoutCounter House forecast

101

Reposted by SnoutCounter

lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Fixed a few typos on the Senate forecast page which erroneously referred to things as relating to the House forecast rather than the Senate forecast, apologies for those errors

001

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Senate forecast update, 9/28/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 58.6% (no change) 🔴Republicans: 41.4% (no change) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.4 (🔺0.1) 🔴Republicans: 48.6 (🔻0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map showing win probabilities by state with a Class II Senate race, September 28, 2026

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/28/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 79.3% (🔺0.2%) 🔴Republicans: 20.7% (🔻0.2%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 238.2 (🔺0.3) 🔴Republicans: 196.8 (🔻0.3) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities by congressional district in the SnoutCounter House forecast, September 28, 2026

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Senate forecast, 9/27/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 58.5% 🔴Republicans: 41.5% Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.3 🔴Republicans: 48.7

111

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/27/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 79.1% (🔺0.1%) 🔴Republicans: 20.9% (🔻0.1%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 237.9 (no change) 🔴Republicans: 197.1 (no change) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

111

Reposted by SnoutCounter

lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

this took way too long but I've finally released my Senate forecast!! Read about it here: snoutcounter.works/posts/2026-s...

snoutcounter.works

Releasing Our 2026 Senate Forecast – SnoutCounter

How the SnoutCounter Senate Forecast works

033

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/22/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 77.5% (🔺1.4%) 🔴Republicans: 22.5% (🔻1.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 237.2 (🔺1) 🔴Republicans: 197.8 (🔻1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map showing forecast probabilities for each House seat as of September 22, 2026

1122

Reposted by SnoutCounter

lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Fixed a bug in my generic ballot averages. This bug originates from some changes made on Sept 10 to bring the generic ballot average in line with the historical generic ballot averages, specifically to steadily make them more reactive after Labor Day. The bug made them *too* reactive, though.

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Interestingly, this Labor Day boost for Democrats seems to resemble a similar boost Democrats experienced in 2018:

Close up of time series chart showing 2018 and 2026 generic ballot margins simultaenously

012

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

For the first this cycle, Democrats have broken 50% in the generic ballot average. They are at 50.32% in my polling average, versus the Republicans at 42.81%. This is a D+7.51 spread.

111

Reposted by SnoutCounter

lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I've added this poll to my dataset and re-run my generic ballot average and House model. This has moved the needle slightly towards Dems - D+7.12 --> D+7.38 in generic ballot, Dems' chance of winning the House goes from 71.3% to 72.5%

101

Reposted by SnoutCounter

lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

You can now see time series charts for forecasted odds and vote shares for individual congressional districts in my forecast! Here is the chart for MI-10, the current most likely tipping point as per my model:

Time series chart of MI-10 win probability over time as per the SnoutCounter forecast

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

As the generic ballot swings in favor of Democrats, they are now very slightly favored to win MI-04 in our forecast, which up until now had Republicans slightly favored. This is only a tiny advantage, though - the race is still a coin toss. It has approx equal chance of going either way.

011

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/9/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 71.3% (🔺3.8%) 🔴Republicans: 28.7%(🔻3.8%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 232.8 (🔺2) 🔴Republicans: 202.2 (🔻2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Generic ballot, 9/10/2026 Margin: D+7.12% ---------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 49.34% 🔴Republicans: 42.22%

110

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Trump's approval on the Iran war, 9/10/2026 Net approval: -33.02% --------------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 30.16% 🟣Disapprove: 63.18%

200

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Trump's approval on the issues, 9/10/2026 Crime: -11.98% Immigration: -13.03% Foreign policy: -24.97% Healthcare: -28.08% Trade & tariffs: -30.23% Economy: -31.74% Inflation & cost of living: -45.43%

200

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Trump's approval among registered voters, 9/10/2026 Net approval: -18.7% -------------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 38.8% 🟣Disapprove: 57.51%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Trump's approval rating, 9/10/2026 Net approval: -21.52% -------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 36.64% 🟣Disapprove: 58.15%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Trump's approval on trade and the economy have both fallen precipitously over the past month, likely in large part due to the trade war with Canada

001

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

I haven't posted in some time, so here are some time series charts showing how the chances and mean seats for each party have changed over the past week:

000

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/9/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 67.5% 🔴Republicans: 32.5% Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 230.8 🔴Republicans: 204.2

Map showing congressional districts colored by win probability for Dems/Republicans, as per the SnoutCounter House model

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Generic ballot, 9/9/2026 Margin: D+6.8% ---------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 49.53% 🔴Republicans: 42.73%

Chart showing 2026 horse race generic ballot polling averages

Chart showing 2026 generic ballot margin polling average

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Trump's approval on handling the Iran war Net approval: -32.37% -------------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 30.53% 🟣Disapprove: 62.89%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Trump's approval on the issues, 9/9/2026 Crime: -11.91% Immigration: -11.93% Foreign policy: -24.56% Healthcare: -28% Trade/tariffs: -30.17% Economy: -31.63% Inflation/cost of living: -45.36%

Chart showing net issue-specific approval averages for Trump's second term

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Trump's approval among registered voters, 9/9/2026 Net approval: -18.35% ------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 39.1% 🟣Disapprove: 57.44%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Trump's approval, 9/9/2026 Net approval: -21.25% ----------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 36.86% 🟣Disapprove: 58.12%

Chart showing presidential approval averages

Chart showing net approval rating average

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Apologies for not posting model/polling updates in a while, I'll try to post more regularly

000

Reposted by SnoutCounter

lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Wrt the Missouri maps for my forecast - I'm gonna track the situation + look at other forecasters to see how things will shape up before changing the maps utilized for my forecast

001

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

House forecast update, 9/2/2026 Chamber Win Probability 🔵Democrats: 66.5% (🔺0.3%) 🔴Republicans: 33.5% (🔻0.3%) Mean Simulated Seats 🔵Democrats: 230.2 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 204.8 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities in 2026 SnoutCounter House Forecast, September 2, 2026

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Generic ballot, 9/1/2026 Margin: D+6.57% ------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 49.15% 🔴Republicans: 42.58%

101

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Trump's approval on the Iran war, 9/1/2026 Net approval: -33.09% -------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 29.89% 🟣Disapprove: 62.99%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Trump's approval on the issues, 9/1/2026 Immigration: -14.09% Crime: -14.32% Foreign policy: -26.25% Trade & tariffs: -26.93% Healthcare: -27.8% Economy: -29.93% Inflation & prices: -45.19%

Time series chart showing polling averages for Trump's approval on the issues in his second administration

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Trump's approval rating among registered voters, 9/1/2026 Net approval: -18.1% ----------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 39.22% 🟣Disapprove: 57.32%

100

SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Trump's approval rating, 9/1/2026 Net approval: -21.2% --------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 36.77% 🟣Disapprove: 57.97%

Chart showing approval for Donald Trump over the course of his second administration

Chart showing net approval for Trump over the course of his second administration

100