iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Guilherme Duarte

Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 24/10/2025

Fun exercise for students in a causal inference class: draw a DAG for this debate.

Guilherme Duarte @guilhermeduarte.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Interesting response by @yiqingxu.bsky.social and others to @urisohn.bsky.social: arxiv.org/pdf/2502.05717 Causal inference is serious job. In Pearl's parlance, "define first, identify second, estimate last". If the 2 first parts are correct, one can use adaptive models in semiparametric fashion.

arxiv.org

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Giuseppe Cavaliere @cavalieregiu.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

A very cool Econometrics Journal editorial by @jaapabbring.bsky.social, @victorchernozhukov.bsky.social & Fernandez-Val on Wright's 1928 contribution to causal inference and IV. Very interesting stuff! Link: arxiv.org/abs/2501.16395

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Pedro Sant’Anna @pedrosantanna.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Here are the first five sets of slides: 01 Introduction: psantanna.com/DiD/01_Intro... 02 Classical 2x2 setup: psantanna.com/DiD/02_two_b... 03 Clustering issues: psantanna.com/DiD/03_Clust... 04 Functional form: psantanna.com/DiD/04_Funct... 05 Covariates: psantanna.com/DiD/05_Covar...

psantanna.com

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Guilherme Duarte @guilhermeduarte.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

I am thrilled to announce that I will be joining Department of Government at Harvard University, first as a postdoctoral fellow (2025) and then as an assistant professor (2026). I am grateful and really excited for this new opportunity.

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Edward H. Kennedy @edwardhkennedy.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

New paper! arxiv.org/pdf/2411.14285 Led by amazing postdoc Alex Levis: www.awlevis.com/about/ We show causal effects of new "soft" interventions are less sensitive to unmeasured confounding & study which effects are *least* sensitive to confounding -> makes new connections to optimal transport

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Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

#Rstats `MatchIt` v4.6.0 is out! `MatchIt` implements propensity score matching and other matching methods for causal effect estimation. This isn't a major release, but here are the main updates: 🧵 #causalsky #econsky #episky #statsky

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Richard Everitt @bayesianstats.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

I made a starter-pack for Statistics and Statistics-related groups, departments or organisations. Please share, and suggest accounts that I have missed. go.bsky.app/q6MfWL

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Aaron Roth @aaroth.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Econ has some ML gems. One of my favorite's is Sandroni's sweeping result that no empirical test can distinguish an informed from an uninformed forecaster. I teach it in my ML class: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OAI... But it is presented as negative, when it is in fact a sweeping positive result.

youtube.com

CIS 6200: Learning with Conditional Guarantees, Lecture 21.

YouTube video by Aaron Roth

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apoorva lal @handle.invalid · 12/11/2024

(brand new, WIP) python package for synthetic control estimators with a fast weight solver (pyensmallen). Currently implements jacknife CIs since inference in single-treated setting is basically made up anyway. hope this passes muster, @paulgp.com ? github.com/apoorvalal/s...

github.com

GitHub - apoorvalal/synthlearners: fast synthetic control estimators for panel data problems

fast synthetic control estimators for panel data problems - apoorvalal/synthlearners

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Adam L @adam-lg.bsky.social · 22/10/2024

"Recent Developments in Partial Identification" by Kline and Tamer (2023). #stats 📉📈 For those curious about Manski bounds and partial identification more generally, a nice review! Open access: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

Identification strategies concern what can be learned about the value of a
parameter based on the data and the model assumptions. The literature on
partial identification is motivated by the fact that it is not possible to learn the
exact value of the parameter for many empirically relevant cases. A typical
result in the literature on partial identification is a statement about char-
acterizing the identified set, which summarizes what can be learned about
the parameter of interest given the data and model assumptions. For in-
stance, this may mean that the value of the parameter can be learned to be
necessarily within some set of values. First, the review surveys the general
frameworks that have been developed for conducting a partial identifica-
tion analysis. Second, the review surveys some of the more recent results on
partial identification.

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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

The only part of Twitter worth preserving are those Wooldridge threads on Poisson QMLE.

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Marcelo Soares @msoares.bsky.social · 01/09/2024

🚨GRAVE: usuário do Bluesky cria lista que permite bloquear de uma vez uma penca de perfis caça-clique que espalham fofoca, exagero, inutilidade e desinformação. bsky.app/profile/did:...

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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 31/08/2024

I, of course, would never pander to the delightful new community of folks joining Bluesky by pointing out that Brazilian mayoral elections are a major use case for difference-in-differences methods.

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Guilherme Duarte @guilhermeduarte.bsky.social · 01/09/2024

A starter pack with causal inference I know. Unsure if this is the correct way of doing this, but I'm learning go.bsky.app/FdemGAZ

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Guilherme Duarte @guilhermeduarte.bsky.social · 01/09/2024

Based on this skeet by @stephenjwild.bsky.social , I will start a skeet thread on free resources for causal inference I know. First one is obviously this recent book by Peng Ding. Strengths of this book are the focus on statistical inference (randomization, matching, and sensitivity analysis).

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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 01/09/2024

Show yourselves causality people. #stats

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Matthew B. Jané @matthewbjane.bsky.social · 30/08/2024

My blog post critical of this re-analysis is up: matthewbjane.com/blog-posts/blo… The re-analysis conducted by Rausch & Haidt does not follow a principled statistical approach. I re-do their re-analysis with appropriate statistical methods

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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 31/08/2024

Pra quem ta chegando agora, pf usem o mesmo avatar que tinham na outra rede por enquanto.

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 29/08/2024

A warm welcome to everyone arriving from Brazil. I know you don't have crows or ravens (except for the occasional invasive pied crow) but you have caracaras, which seem to be very similar in behavior and spirit. Maybe some of you even have pictures? Below, a fine raven in San Francisco. 🪶

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 29/08/2024

The seamless interface between estimatr and modelsummary in R is such an efficiency boost, not to mention the brilliant performance of each respective package. @vincentab.bsky.social @aecoppock.bsky.social @graemeblair.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social bravo and many thanks!

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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 19/10/2023

For polisky folks: Job alert: UChicago seeks an Instructional Assistant Professor (Lecturer) to teach undergraduate social science research methods. This is a two-year, renewable teaching position suitable for any social science PhD. Apply below (EOE/Vet/Disability) apply.interfolio.com/134140

apply.interfolio.com

Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

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Edward H. Kennedy @edwardhkennedy.bsky.social · 12/10/2023

This paper was so fun: arxiv.org/pdf/2301.121... We give new methods for estimating bounds on avg treatment effects - trt is confounded, but an instrument is available. Super common in practice The bounds are non-smooth, so std efficiency theory isn't applicable Lots of useful nuggets throughout!

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

A new paper with Ye Wang and Aaron Zhou that uses random forests to improve Lee (2009) trimming bounds for partial identification under endogenous sample selection: arxiv.org/abs/2309.08985

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Thomas Tichelbaecker @ttichelbaecker.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

Delighted that this article on measures of affective polarization w/ NoamGidron, Will Horne and Jim Adams is now available online in POQ 🥳 We examine the relationship between hostility towards out-parties and out-partisans across 10 countries. Our novel dataset is also available on dataverse!

academic.oup.com

What Do We Measure When We Measure Affective Polarization across Countries?

Abstract. Measures of affective polarization—that is, dislike and hostility across party lines—have been developed and validated in the context of America’s two

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Vitor Possebom @vitorpossebom.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

📈📉Synthetic Control Method and History📈📉 Most SC applications are comparative case studies with one or few treated units. I like to see them as a way to quantitatively assess insights from other social sciences, specially History. +

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Olivier Simard-Casanova @o.simardcasanova.net · 19/09/2023

How to make your Bluesky feed a lot livelier almost instantly? Easy: in Settings > Home Feed Preferences, change this setting to "Show all replies" I changed it a few days ago, it's night and day!

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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 08/07/2023

Please stop talking about Threads. Mark Zuckerberg can go fuck himself. I am quite happy with Blue Sky...it doesn't need to be giant like Twitter. A few thousand wonks and nerds shit posting and discussing research is all I ever wanted.

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Ed Yong is offline @edyong209.bsky.social · 06/07/2023

Wait, so Threads… doesn’t allow you to see only posts from people you follow, and instead forces you to see posts from the entirety of the platform? HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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Guilherme Duarte @guilhermeduarte.bsky.social · 03/07/2023

the best thing of bluesky is definitely engaging with the academic community without being bothered by bots

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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 02/07/2023

Academics are finally posting paper abstracts here. Nature is healing.

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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 02/07/2023

I'm on a flight tomorrow and am really looking forward to reading this paper.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4490035

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