iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Julian Gerez

IE Political Science Department @iepolisci.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

We are hiring! We have 3 tenure track positions open: - Comparative Politics: apply.interfolio.com/188149 - International Relations: apply.interfolio.com/188150 - Political Economy: apply.interfolio.com/188151 All jobs have deadlines Oct 5th. Please help spread the word to potential candidates.

apply.interfolio.com

Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 11/06/2026

Political science: The probability of being the decisive voter is effectively zero Second round of the 2026 Peruvian general election:

Election results graphic showing Keiko Fujimori (FP) vs. Roberto Sánchez (JP) in the 2026 Peruvian presidential runoff, 98.2% reporting as of June 10, 23:48 UTC−5. Popular vote: Fujimori 9,032,651 (50.002%) — Sánchez 9,032,000 (49.998%).

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 04/06/2026

Sharing ongoing work with @simonepaci.bsky.social: why is "vice" tax evasion stubbornly high? We argue the usual compliance mechanisms fail for vice taxes, and are currently running (we think) the first RCT of excise enforcement with the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration to test.

Map of California titled "Wave 1 Tobacco Inspections." Subtitle: 539 inspections across 10 CDTFA zones, February–March 2026. Blue dots mark inspected retailers, orange triangles mark zone headquarters, and orange dashed circles show 30-mile sampling radii around each headquarters. Clusters of inspections are visible along the coast and Central Valley, spanning zones from West Sacramento and Oakland in the north to San Diego and Irvine in the south.

Horizontal bar chart titled "Seizure Rates by Zone, Wave 1." Subtitle: 125 seizures detected across 539 inspections (23%). Bars show seizure rates ranging from 15% (Bakersfield, 11/75) to 36% (Fresno, 16/45), with all 10 California zones represented. Fresno and San Jose have the highest rates; West Sacramento and Bakersfield the lowest.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 06/05/2026

Back in NYC I used to live in Bergen Street. I love California a lot so far but deeply miss pedestrian-, bike-, and transit-oriented development.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Look, every single “deal” reached by a university with the Trump administration is a moral stain that will be seen with deep embarrassment once we’re through this. But for Northwestern to do this now, when the administration is visibly weakened, is even more shameful and inexcusable.

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Erin Lockwood @erinkaylockwood.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Nearly half of UC undergraduates and graduate students experience food insecurity. Those numbers will increase with the federal government's refusal to fund SNAP (CalFresh). If you can afford it, please consider contributing to the UCI Basic Needs Center, which feeds many of our students.

zotfunder.give.uci.edu

Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success

Help University of California, Irvine raise $15,000 for the project: Fill Our Pantries: Nourish Student Success. Your gift will make a difference!

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Adee Weller @adeeweller.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Re-election means voters can hold elected officials accountable, but can it be effective where criminal groups shape local politics? In my new article in @bjpols.bsky.social, I show that in high-crime areas of Mexico, re-election did not boost accountability, but increased collusion instead.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 25/10/2025

This is a great opportunity at an amazing university in one of the most beautiful cities in the world!

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Sergi Martínez @sergisme.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

📢 Exciting news from EAFIT University in Medellín 🇨🇴! The Politics and Development Area of the School of Finance, Economics, and Government is opening 3️⃣ tenure-track positions to join our interdisciplinary School. 👇 More details in the next posts.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 24/10/2025

Fun exercise for students in a causal inference class: draw a DAG for this debate.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 22/10/2025

I joined @cnn.com International last night to discuss the recent U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels and their implications for counternarcotics cooperation, U.S.-Colombia relations, and regional geopolitics more broadly. (1/2)

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Philip Luke Johnson @phillegitimate.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

I wrote about deadly US strikes in the Caribbean. A lot has been said about the illegality of the strikes, but impunity (and not legality) is the whole point.

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Journal of Peace Research @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

🚨 New publication alert! 🚨 When do armed groups capture democratic elections, and when do they fail to do so? In a new study, @andresuribe.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) investigates how local party competition can shape the effectiveness of coercion during Colombia’s 2002 Senate elections.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 05/08/2025

I'm working on a difference-in-RDs project but struggling with how to properly handle bandwidth selection across treatment periods. It's not obvious to me how to choose a bandwidth for multiple separate RD estimates at once. Would love pointers to resources or best practices! Thanks in advance 🙏🏼

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 28/07/2025

By the way, this also applies to all experiments and any observational studies that use comparisons. Report control/baseline information to contextualize differences!

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 24/07/2025

It's hard to describe how sad and embarrassed I feel by this.

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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | Columbia’s Administrators Are Fooling Themselves

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 07/05/2025

I defended my dissertation today! A heartfelt thanks to my committee—@vickymurillo.bsky.social, John Marshall, Sarah Daly, @emoncada.bsky.social, and @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social—for their insight, generosity, and steady support, as well as the family and friends who've backed me every step of the way.

Me in the center with the members of my committee, smiling in front of a whiteboard after my dissertation defense!

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 01/02/2025

To the point of a "Trump effect" on seizures, as tempting as it may be to link seizures to political events, these are influenced by many factors beyond who holds the U.S. presidency (or Mexican presidency, for that matter). I created this figure to provide some evidence for this claim.

Alt text generated by an LLM: Line chart showing the average monthly fentanyl and heroin seizures (in kg) by the Mexican government in six-month periods from 2015 to 2022. The y-axis represents the amount of seizures in kilograms, and the x-axis represents the years. Fentanyl seizures, represented by a blue line with circular markers, start near zero in 2015 and increase sharply after 2017, peaking in 2021 before fluctuating. Heroin seizures, represented by an orange line with triangular markers, are initially high but show a declining trend after 2018, reaching near zero by 2022. While there are fluctuations in seizures, overall trends do not show substantive changes that clearly align with the timing of U.S. presidential administrations.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 27/01/2025

Based on some of the online reactions to the tariff situation between Colombia and the United States, it's frustrating how Colombia is still reduced in popular consciousness to a poor, 'third world' country with no autonomy, valued globally only for its exports of legal and illegal stimulants.

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 26/11/2024

Medellín is an incredible city! Despite being born in Bogotá and having family from la costa (Caribbean coast), it's my favorite city in Colombia :)

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Adee Weller @adeeweller.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Interesting in the amazing work of scholars who study organized crime and politics? Check out this growing starter pack of scholars and policy-makers. DM me or @juliangerez.com to be added to the list! We're looking to expand! go.bsky.app/EibGsKS

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Sebastian van Baalen @sebastianvanbaalen.se · 12/09/2024

Is your Bluesky feed missing in conflict analysis? I made a starter pack of peace and conflict scholars to follow here. DM me if you want to be included. #Conflictsky go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 03/09/2024

👋 I'm on the academic job market! I'm a political scientist who studies the political economy of security and law enforcement, examining criminal and political violence and the state enforcement strategies that respond to these threats, with a regional focus on Latin America. 🧵 1/9

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 25/03/2024

Excited to share my paper exploring subnational variation in law enforcement intensity, focusing on coca eradication in Colombia. I'll be presenting it at various venues soon, including the MPSA mini-conference on organized crime and politics. julianegerez.github.io/research/EradicationCauses.pdf

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Julian Gerez @juliangerez.com · 12/02/2024

Hi Polisky community, long-time (~2 months?) listener, first-time caller. I'm looking for good posters that present the pilot of an experiment—a mix of preliminary results and speculative design considerations seems to be the right idea here, but posters are new to me so any advice would be great.

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