iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Geoff Allen

Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A wealthy, high-quality democracy has seized up. No populist, no stolen election—just divided government colliding with a constitution built for single-party rule. With Beijing watching, the stakes for Taiwan could not be higher. 🆕 by @kharist.bsky.social muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Lily Mason @lilymasonphd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

My new JOD piece arguing against the “cure polarization” approach to saving democracy.

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Key point: "the last 3 presidential elections showed varying levels of pro-Democratic bias in polls, on average. But House and Senate pre-election polls showed very little bias in the two midterms of the Trump era: 2018 and 2022. "

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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

There's a lot to say about this, and other folks are saying most of it. I just want to focus on one thing: the claim about the relationship between universities and "the real world."

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This is a fun one. Lots of fun memories. #My9Games

Star Wars: Nights of the Old Republic, Mass Effect 2, Command and Conquer: Tiberian Sun, Counter Strike: Global Offensive, Deux Ex: Human Revolution, Crusader Kings II, Medieval II: Total War, RollerCoaster Tycoon 2, Mount & Blade: Warband

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Jack Santucci @jacksantucci.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Here's the latest version of my working paper on the categorical difference between STV and (list) PR and how not appreciating it may have led, on the basis of U.S. data, to conventional wisdom that PR causes party-system fragmentation. jacksantucci.com/docs/papers/... Feedback welcome. More below.

Do party-list proportional representation (PR) and the single transferable vote (STV) produce different results? These reforms are hotly debated in American politics, but most answers to the question come from non-U.S. cases. This paper replicates and extends the best existing analysis of U.S. data. Gosnell (1939) simulated list PR elections from observed STV first choices in Cincinnati (1925-37) and New York City (1937), finding that majority control of government did not change across the systems. Later work took this to mean that both kinds of PR were equivalent with respect to preference aggregation. Reappraisal and extension of the study do not support that view. All else equal, voters’ lower rankings changed majority control in five of 21 elections, one of which was in the original sample. These results offer fresh perspective on ballot exhaustion and ticket-splitting, which can act as STV-specific causes of fragmentation. The paper explains simply how list PR and STV differ. It concludes with notes on research directions and extending the data to more cases.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Great resource for those interested in studying Korean elections! Song, Hwang & Lee introduce the Korean National Assembly Elections Dataset (KNAED): candidate-level data for all South Korean legislative elections, 1948-2024. 👏 @electoralstudies.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Van Jackson @vanjackson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

"One way of understanding the decline of non-fiction is as the shrinking market for specifically airport bookstore slop. I think back to how much crap I read from about 2000 to 2018...Millions of words that amounted to justifying the status quo." www.un-diplomatic.com/p/the-dire-s...

un-diplomatic.com

The Dire State of Non-Fiction Publishing...

...is a self-inflicted wound.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Jeff Stein @jeffstein.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞 Big news: The Washington Sun launches w/: — Huge investment in DC & local reporters — Legend Tom Sietsema — Capital Weather — Newsroom of +100, w/ great reporters (& me) Comes after Bezos's enormous cuts to WaPo To support, sign up for (free!) newsletter: washingtonsun.com/newsletters

washingtonsun.com

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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

I think frankly all of this speaks to the really unserious way that Americans generally but the current GOP in particular think about armed conflict, as if it is against the rules for the other side to fight back. It is not. Which is one reason (of many) why maybe we should do less war.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 10/06/2026

Do you feel like you don’t fit in as a ‘Democrat’ or a ‘Republican?’ Our new political typology shows this complexity, sorting the public into nine distinct groups based on their political and cultural values. The result is a picture of American politics with far more than just red and blue.

Chart of The 2026 Pew Research Center Political Typology.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

People underestimate the receptiveness of other people to different political opinions This is strong for people who support a party they dislike, they expect such political conversation to be negative, and are therefore unwilling to engage www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Joe Stieb @joestieb.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/04/w... For those who may be interested, I've got a retrospective piece seeking historical precision for the War on Terror. My main claim is that the War on Terror, as a period of US foreign policy history, is over. It had 3 essential traits: 1. Terrorism was treated/

google.com

What Was the War on Terror?

A defining period in U.S. foreign policy has ended, but it remains misunderstood.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Zander Furnas @alexanderfurnas.com · 03/09/2026

New preprint w/ Jian Gao, @yianyin.bsky.social & @dashunwang.bsky.social. We link campaign finance, faculty rosters, voter files, a ~7,000-scientist survey & bibliometrics to ask if scientists' politics show up in the science that gets made & used. 🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...

party composition of donors from 1980-2022

voter registration (E) and partisan self identification from a survey (F)

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

BLS this morning, with revised 2Q data: "The labor share, which is the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation, was 52.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest level in the series, which begins in the first quarter of 1947."

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I shouldn't let stories like this rile me up. But the folks doing this are just wasting millions of dollars that could otherwise fund actual education, not particularly inefficient jobs training.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Howard Beck @howardbeck.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Sports editors: Do yourselves a favor and hire @nbasarah.bsky.social.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Alaska counts remaining mail ballots, & final results in the Senate primary are significantly bluer than the initial count: Mary Peltola at 49.5% Senator Dan Sullivan 41.4% Daniel J. Sullivan 1.5% David Leslie (D) 1.1% Other Republicans: 2.3% Other Democrat: 0.6% (Ds combine to 51.2%.)

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

This is the kind of garbage that should get elected Dems censured by the party. You don't have to campaign for and endorse a candidate you disagree with, but to actively campaign AGAINST them after the primary is behavior that has to be stamped out.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Power just went out across essentially all of Washington County UT, Mesquite NV, the Arizona Strip and maybe parts of Iron County UT. Multiple power companies impacted, and communities stretched across probably 150 miles.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Ajay Verghese @ajayverghese.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

I'm excited to let you all know that Middlebury is hiring a comparativist who works on African Politics! I am the search committee chair, so hit me up with any questions you may have. Deadline is 9/1. apply.interfolio.com/188248

apply.interfolio.com

Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

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Andrew D Thaler @drandrewthaler.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

One of the most striking things in the actual paper is that this effect is almost entirely driven by the declining performance of male students who use AI.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Writing, quite literally, is thinking. Hence, it is hard to write well because it requires systematic, disciplined thinking. If you aren't writing for yourself you aren't thinking for yourself.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

The work from Sasha Gusev shows that since 2000 the number of minority faculty at R1 institutions today is actually *lower* than if hiring from the PhD pool was totally race neutral. So what we are really arguing about is whether there should be any minority faculty at all.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

This is a fair and valid point. What I'm curious about is what type of revenue sources BSky has actually explored other than the standard social media growth model. For instance: a one-dollar a month subscription service that gave access to an edit button would probably generate a decent cash flow.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

New study shows that — contra widely accepted narratives — there is NO EVIDENCE that professors change their students’ politics and make them more liberal through their teaching

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 06/08/2026

I really recommend the 2022 documentary “It’s Quieter in the Twilight,” which profiles the scientists working in relative obscurity to keep the Voyager spacecraft operating—many of them past retirement age, but unwilling to quit until the Voyagers do. It was very sweet and thought-provoking.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Dante Atkins @danteatkins.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

When it comes to the DNC, so many people cannot conceive of an issue that does not break down along centrist/progressive lines. But the DNC's issues do not break down along those lines. They break down on structural issues: what should the DNC's job be and where should the money go? That's the key.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

POLSCI/Academic hivemind, I need some help. I have at the last minute been asked to fill in for a course called Applied Politics. I'm looking for recommendations for shorter books at the intersection of political science/current policy debates, both domestically and internationally.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

For the record: this is more or less my take, put in much more succinct wording than I can manage at the moment.

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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

For our mega-survey on populist attitudes, we asked whether people would prefer a more multi-party system or a two-party system. The former blew the latter out of the water. Asked about specific reforms to get there, people are less sure. Also, Trump populists are the most fond of the status quo.

theunpopulist.net

Americans Hate the Two-Party System But Don’t Know What Should Replace It, ISMA Populism Survey Finds

Voters overwhelmingly want something different, but don’t know or understand the reform options on the table

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

University president is a job I wouldn't want, and I think a tough, relatively thankless one. And, for an academic, it likely means a slightly earlier than usual career-end date. So a higher end salary seems justified. At no university should that number be 7 figures.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Sarah Taber @sarahtaber.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Ok so this lady says solar panels are getting built on "the most productive farmland" in her area. Which just ain't true at all. It ain't true here in NC either. Where I ALSO hear that talking point over & over again. Smells like astroturf! So let's get the dirt on solar farms & dirt ✨

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Matthew Moore @matthewrmoore.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

The cost of losing local journalism is more than just a metaphorical one. A group of finance professors found that fewer local reporters are leading to higher municipal borrowing costs for local governments. Thanks to @rebuildlocalnews.bsky.social for chatting - www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-...

kuaf.com

Fewer local reporters may mean higher borrowing costs for local governments

Researchers Dermot Murphy of the University of Illinois Chicago and Matt Baker of Rebuild Local News explain how shrinking local news coverage drives up what local governments pay to borrow.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

This should be 9-0, the claim that the president has any such EO authority is facially absurd. Actual likely result: at least 3 and maybe 4 of the Republican six will go for it. Probably enough defectors to combine with the Dems and get to 5, but it won't be a majority of the Rs getting it right.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

And it's 1 percent per infection! With how we now know the disease evolves, that number is likely higher by a substantial margin.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Peter Navarro providing evidence for his attempted mass murder case.

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

🚨NEW WORKING PAPER🚨 w/ @mjstrawbridge.bsky.social and @stephanieternullo.bsky.social. We help explain the puzzle of steadfast Black identification with the Democratic party by providing new theory and evidence on the role of racial residential segregation 1/n

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Julie DiCaro @juliedicaro.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

I’m a bit overwhelmed at how this post took off. And I feel very exposed. 😬 That said, there are certainly enough unemployed freelancers on here that we should try to bad together to make something. Slide into my DMs if you feel like trying to figure something out together.

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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

This is a cool dashboard.

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Geoff Allen @gallen89.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

After the Trump administration's announcement last week that they intend to shrink Bear's Ears and Grand Staircase Escalante National Monuments by up to 90 percent, clearing the way for mining and oil exploration, I joined ~150 folks protesting here in St. George, and thousands across the state

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Reposted by Geoff Allen

Adrianna McIntyre @adrianna.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

New white paper from myself + colleagues: Implementation of Medicaid Work Requirements: Key Design Considerations and Strategies to Minimize Avoidable Coverage Loss hsph.me/Medicaid-Wor... We synthesize evidence in the peer-reviewed and gray literature to identify key lessons + recommendations

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