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Cornell Overfield

@cornelloverfield.bsky.social
117 followers 255 following 57 posts

Law of the sea, maritime issues, international security, esp. in Europe & Arctic. CNA. Currently: 🇩🇪. Previously 🇰🇬🇺🇸

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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
excellent thread on the “hybrid war” discourse. Similar dynamics at play with the “shadow fleet“ - how can you crack down on individual ships and at what cost to broader interests, including the effect reshaping international order
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
“Joshua Tallis, naval analyst at the US security research organisation CNA, said the request for ships to transit at specific times was likely ‘an effective means to manage the costs associated with a persistent and indefinite US defence of the southern Strait of Hormuz route’.”
ft.com
US limits air defence time slots for tankers sailing through Hormuz
Shift to two specified times daily follows increase in Iranian attacks
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Also, more bombs don’t buy more strategic effect or US security if US leaders insist on using military force for ill-defined strategic ends or highly questionable theories of change and victory.
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The Diplomat @thediplomat.com · 08/09/2026
Since 2022, but particularly in 2026, hard maritime security issues on the Caspian Sea have started moving to the forefront. @lizwish.bsky.social and @cornelloverfield.bsky.social explain: buff.ly/4rFaBz4
buff.ly
Securing Navigation for Trans-Caspian Trade
Since 2022, but particularly in 2026, hard maritime security issues on the Caspian Sea have started moving to the forefront.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
NATO countries therefore have good reasons to rely more on fighter aircraft and are in the process of acquiring cheap drone interceptors for them, such as APKWS II.
fpri.org
Europe Should Buy and Integrate APKWS Rockets For Drone Defense  - Foreign Policy Research Institute
In the early morning hours on September 10, more than a dozen Russian target drones crossed into Polish airspace, before less than a dozen were shot down by
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
But for NATO countries with peacetime militaries that mostly rely on relatively small professional forces, this system simply cannot be replicated—especially if you have a long border with Russia, such as Finland.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Ukraine needs hundreds of mobile air defence teams with hundreds of vehicles. And for every crew and vehicle, there comes a logistical tail to ensure the crews are fed, housed, and resupplied. This is not a problem for a country like Ukraine which has hundreds of thousands of people under arms.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
In which my colleague @lizwish.bsky.social and I argue that the U.S. and Europe must help Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan build their hard maritime security capabilities if Central Asia and the Middle Corridor are to be a true alternative to routes through Russia
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I’m not inherently against the “Finland model” for shipbuilding but it strikes me that a lot of people are invoking it as a proven approach whereas I don’t know if the jury is in on its success yet, nor do we know how easily one could extrapolate from an icebreaker to, say, a foreign warship design.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Great reporting on the World Nomad Games as not just a spectacle combining kok Boru and the Pussycat Dolls, but 35 years of nation building and 6 years of power consolidation
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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
The current era of warfare is defined by high speed of detection and targeting. Introducing theater nuclear forces produces different incentives than they did in the cold war becuase of these vulnerabilities, combined with conventional entanglement. Simply carrying over cold war assumptions won't do
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Quite. If the US is unsure if it will commit conventional forces, it sure as hell won't run nuclear risks on behalf of its allies.
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The Europeans did not ‘shirk’ their obligations; rather, they had very sound strategic reasons for not spending as much on conventional armed forces as the US would have liked. This was something the Eisenhower administration understood very well. (2/2)
Quote from Trachtenberg's "A constructed peace", page 154: The U.S. government complained about the Europeans not doing their share, but it also understood why their effort was limited. The basic problem was that America and not Europe controlled what was unquestionably the dominant form of military power. Why should the Europeans embark on a major buildup of local defense forces if that effort, no matter how massive, would not give them any greater control over their own destiny—indeed, if it would make it easier for the Americans to withdraw the bulk of their ground forces and thus weaken the U.S. nuclear guarantee? The United States, in the final analysis, would be making the crucial decisions while the Europeans, with their conventional forces, would be merely “playing with marbles.”
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Seit Wochen kritisiert Moritz Schularick auf allen Kanälen die Beschaffungspolitik der Bundesregierung. Für @table.media durfte ich jetzt aufschreiben, wo seine Kritik zu kurz greift, warum wir nicht zu stark auf Drohnen setzen sollten und wieso Roboter keine Lösung für den Personalengpass sind.
table.media
Aufrüstung: Industrie und Experten widersprechen Schularicks Kritik an bisheriger Beschaffung
Angesichts großer Investitionen in die Rüstungsbranche streiten Fachleute über die Prioritäten. In einem offenen Brief, der Table.Briefings exklusiv vorliegt, wirft BDSV-Präsident Atzpodien dem Kiel Institut-Präsidenten Schularick vor, sich aus einer „Generalsperspektive“ zu äußern.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Who will be Russia‘s next top general? CNA colleagues and I looked at this from a couple angles to understand what externally-observable variables seem to matter for making Russia’s highest ranks. Career trajectory: ✅ Age at promotions: ✅ Hero of Russia: ❌ warontherocks.com/russias-next...
warontherocks.com
Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership
Judged by the initial strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine some time ago. Yet
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 20/08/2026
Meanwhile the Bundeswehr:
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Essential reading on the American military’s continued obsession with lethality and the strategic costs and failures that follow
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Two important new reports on working with allies to expand and stabilize defense manufacturing are worth your attention. A 🧵
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
When the public broadly believes something foolish, it isn't wrong to note that fact, but you have an obligation in so noting it *that it is foolish* - yes, actually, the collapse of American democracy will impact you more than the time you had to sit through an HR training.
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Quinta Jurecic @qjurecic.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Many people are saying substack.com/home/post/p-...
My own assertion, itself vibes-based and therefore entirely unfalsifiable, is that the “vibe shift” was the unconscious cognitive effect of hanging out on Twitter after Musk’s acquisition
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Was Frank und Lukas sagen.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In der Süddeutschen Zeitung wirft der Ökonom Moritz Schularick, Präsident des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), dem Bundesministerium der Verteidigung vor, in die falschen Waffensysteme zu investieren. Dabei zeigt er eindrücklich, dass seine militärische Kompetenz Lücken aufweist. 🧵
sueddeutsche.de
Ökonom kritisiert Pistorius: „Das 700-Milliarden-Programm droht zu verpuffen“
Der Ökonom Moritz Schularick hält nichts von den Plänen der Bundesregierung für die Bundeswehr. Für die Modernisierung müsse gezielt in Waffensysteme der Zukunft investiert werden – und nicht in alte ...
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Dan Wang and I have written the Weekend Essay at @financialtimes.com and if I can say so myself it's a banger as.ft.com/r/c1054499-a...
An illustration from classic Golden Age era science fiction.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
An excellent rundown on the whys of the Pakistan-Saudi-Türkiye mutual defense agreement from @jprathbone.bsky.social et al at @financialtimes.com: 1) new regional security architecture as U.S. undermines itself 2) Iran, Israel 3) Arms sales giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign defence pact in Mecca
Three allies seek to deepen regional security co-operation to deal with wars and instability
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Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
My CNA colleague Julian Walker on a potential Putin succession www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/after...
foreignaffairs.com
After Putin
Russia’s coming succession crisis.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
On mutual defense, this language is pure politics, as with NATO! The actual specific obligations will fall well short of “automatically go to war“ Look at NATO, but also other treaties, and they all usually provide parties leeway in what they’ll do in response. This isn’t a Paradox sim!
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Rack and stack at its finest
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Kori Schake @kschake.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
If enacted, would overturn 250 years of American commitment to freedom of navigation.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
The ends-ways-means paradigm of pragmatic realism is dead. Long live the perimeter-area-volume paradigm of geometric realism.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
“completely misrepresented the facts”? NYT could have done better on the longer-term demands for new icebreakers, fine. But the big story with ASCs is the doubling of USCG requirements! And through this, we learn that ”the number 11 came directly from the president”. The focus on Trump is merited!
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
and another thing: im not stalemated. please dont put in the paper that I got stalemated
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B. A. Friedman @bafriedman.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
This is definitely cope, but the depletion of stocks isn’t even the biggest problem. The problem is that fires, or strike warfare if you will, is inherently indecisive.
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
They point out that the U.S. has lots of offensive Pacific-relevant munitions, but don’t reckon with the combination of defensive shortfalls + a leadership that is clearly cost sensitive. Plus, munitions aren’t destiny, but they were the clearest key variable that the U.S. controls!
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 28/07/2026
US undersecretary of defence Colby announces that the US forces’ “Europe Posture Review” has begun. This is about creating a “NATO 3.0”, aka NATO with less US.
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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I feel a lot people reading it get the wrong idea. Yes they did, it's cheap and efficient. But Ukraine uses 5k interceptors, you might say. They do, among other things. Ukraine has 60-70 000 men in AD duty. They use everything including F-15 and Patriots and IRIS-T and yes a lot of cheap drones 1/2
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Wonderful profile of determination in this group of Kyrgyz girls www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/w...
nytimes.com
In Kyrgyzstan, Girls Compete at Kok-Boru, a Game Like Polo
Here’s what happened when some teenage girls dared to compete in the dangerous sport of “kok-boru.”
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Seems like an apt time to re-up my review of Bridge Colby’s ”Strategy of Denial” and its extraordinarily flat understanding of both U.S. adversaries and allies foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/21/c...
foreignpolicy.com
China’s Strategy Needs Study, Not Assumptions
Elbridge Colby’s influential take on combating Beijing doesn’t add up.
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Mark Douglas @maritimekiwi.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
“The package includes 218 designations - 170 entities ​and 48 individuals - making it the bloc's largest sanctions round in four years.” Carve outs for Greek LNG carriers, but EU states can now seize and sell Russian shadow fleet cargo. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
reuters.com
What's in the EU's 21st package of sanctions against Russia
The European Union adopted on Thursday its 21st package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine. The new measures target banks, cryptocurrency networks, oil traders, the shadow fleet and R...
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Dr. Jonathan Schroden @jjschroden.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
You'll find me quoted in this one👇 “What are we trying to do to Iran? We're trying to impose pain. What is Iran trying to do to us? They're trying to impose costs. Those are two different things.” taskandpurpose.com/news/militar...
taskandpurpose.com
The US is in another asymmetric war in the Middle East
The U.S. military is trying to beat Iran into submission by waging a conventional war. But the Iranians have a different strategy.
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Dr. Jonathan Schroden @jjschroden.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Over the years, I’ve observed that while the vast majority of US leaders struggle to understand our adversaries’ use of asymmetric strategies/warfare, realists are the worst at this The idea that a low-power state can’t just be overwhelmed by structural power & military might is anathema to them
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The Tl;dr here is “not really”. www.ft.com/content/1cbe... Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?
ft.com
Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?
Renewed air campaign has yet to reassure shipowners the waterway can be made safe from Iranian attacks
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Richard M. Nixon @dicknixon.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Larry laid his mouse in front of the press to be photographed. Lest you ask, this is a real photograph via the Press Association.
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B. A. Friedman @bafriedman.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
By using lethal means to stop narco vessels in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. has completely ruined its ability to hold the high ground when Iran does the same in Hormuz. We view these artificial theaters as separate when they’re not. There’s no plan, let alone a strategy.
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The language about Turkey and F-35 is often muddled. Precision is important: 1) a Turkey was a tier 3 partner in the JSF consortium, meaning it had $12 billion in contracts for part production and could sell weapons that were built for integration (SOM-J). It paid $125 million for this & then
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Good take on the UK DIP! The hybrid fleet vision isn’t crazy, but it’s a massive, high-risk gamble - the RN emerges with either a dreadnought-like revolution or just the subs...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I am sure the French would be insulted by this, but “Forward Deterrence” really sounds A LOT like U.S. Strategic Air Command used overseas military bases in the 1950s and early 1960s, when it still operated a lot of medium bombers like the B-47 that had a rather limited combat radius. 🧵 1/4
Review of United States Overseas Military Bases, April 1960
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Andrew D Thaler @drandrewthaler.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
It's Out! To rebuild trust in maritime policy, the US must ratify the Law of the Sea: thehill.com/opinion/nati...
thehill.com
To rebuild trust in maritime policy, the US must ratify the Law of the Sea
If we fail to take this clear and concrete action to restore trust in maritime safety and security, soon there will be no one willing to pull us from the sea.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
There is a lot we don’t know about the MOU US and Iran apparently plan to sign later this week, but a few things stand out based on reports we are seeing: 1/4
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Endlich. Aber wann wird Deutschland handeln? blog.prif.org/en/tag/sanct...
blog.prif.org
Sanctions Archive - PRIF BLOG
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
I think I’m in the annoy everyone camp. Yes, defence spending needs to rise faster than the proposed timeline suggests but the vision set-out in the Defence Review is unrealistic and avoids hard choices. Plus defence procurement is still a mess and the MOD is often a financial blackhole.
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