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Michael Kofman

@michaelkofman.bsky.social
46K followers 82 following 323 posts

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.

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Reposted by Michael Kofman
Leverhulme Trust @leverhulme.ac.uk · 17/08/2026
ICYMI: In the latest We Society episode, @michaelkofman.bsky.social discusses the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine war and how a social science lens can aid our understanding of the conflict. 🎙️ Tune in: media.leverhulme.ac.uk/podcast/kofman
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by @massdara.bsky.social to talk about our recent field study in Ukraine. We cover key insights gained from visiting the front. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Spring 2027
Mike sits down with Dara Massicot to discuss findings from their recent visit to Ukraine. They consider exhaustion and diminishing returns on both sides, the...
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I interview one of Ukraine’s top drone assault unit commanders, the head of Code 9.2, 475th Separate Assault Regiment. We discuss their experience in using drones to enable offensive operations. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Drone Assault and the Future of Maneuver in the Russo-Ukrainian War
Mike sits down in Ukraine with Oleksandr "Flint" Nastenko, commander of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment, better known as CODE 9.2. Nastenko explains how his...
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Brian Whitmore @powervertical.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week I speak with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the battlefield in the wake of Ukraine’ shakeup of its military leadership www.powervertical.org/2026/08/07/w...
powervertical.org
WAR UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT
powervertical · WAR UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT On the surface, not much seems to have changed on the battlefield in the weeks since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky upended his military leadership.…
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
New article with Greg Whisler. We lay out how the Russian force expanded during the war leading to a paradox: as the quantity grew, its ability to employ force at scale decreased. As Moscow fielded more forces, the value of that mass steadily diminished. warontherocks.com/a-return-to-...
warontherocks.com
A Return to Mass: Russian Force Expansion in the War with Ukraine
Joseph Stalin famously said that quantity has a quality of its own. Yet the course of the Russo-Ukrainian War shows both the benefits and the eventual
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Reposted by Michael Kofman
Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
On July 9, join us online for an important conversation with Senior Fellow @michaelkofman.bsky.social on Russia's military power after Ukraine, moderated by The Economist's @shashj.bsky.social. RSVP here: carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/...
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 24/06/2026
Russia remains a power in decline—but that decline is unfolding slowly, not suddenly, says @michaelkofman.bsky.social. He explains why Moscow’s gradual erosion may weaken (but not necessarily prevent) its ability to rebuild its military for @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-...
foreignaffairs.com
The Next Russia Threat
Moscow’s military power after Ukraine.
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
New Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Francis Farrell from Kyiv Independent to talk about the situation in Donetsk, what’s happening in Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, Dobropillya. Francis just got back from this part of the front. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
The Battle for Donetsk
Mike sits down with Francis Farrell, a frontline reporter for the Kyiv Independent and one of the few journalists still working far forward in eastern...
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Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
What is Russia's "People's VPK"? Check out this explainer I co-authored with @michaelkofman.bsky.social in @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/the-strange-...
warontherocks.com
The Strange Rise and Fall of Russia’s Crowd Sourced Defense Industry
In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer
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Reposted by Michael Kofman
Joseph Britt @zathras5.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Fascinating review of shifting crises in the Russo-Ukrainian war by @michaelkofman.bsky.social on The Long Game podcast. Initiative is mostly on the Ukrainian side, thanks to innovation in drones & other battlefield tech, but Ukraine still needs Western support. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
Is Ukraine Now Winning the War Against Russia? (w/Michael Kofman)
Podcast Episode · The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer · June 4 · 1h 10m
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Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
New informative interview with @michaelkofman.bsky.social Some key points: - 🇷🇺 mil performance is worse, 🇺🇦 is better - importance of 🇺🇦 "middle strike" - estimates over 400K Russian fatalities - challenge of the 🇷🇺 campaign against critical infrastructure - 🇷🇺 demands unreasonable - war continues
nymag.com
How Ukraine Put Russia on the Back Foot in Year 5 of the War
Military analyst Michael Kofman says “time is increasingly not on Russia’s side.”
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join Jack Watling to talk about the current battlefield dynamics. We compare notes from recent trips, exploring why Ukraine is doing better and Russian forces are visibly performing worse. warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Ukraine's Turning Point: Front-Line Realities in Early 2026
Mike sits down with Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, fresh off a trip to Ukraine, to take stock of a war that may...
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
12/ Responding to a recent War on the Rocks article by @sambendett and @KofmanMichael on the problems of Russia's 'People's Military-Industrial Complex', the 'Russian Engineer' Telegram channel essentially agrees with the authors and the complaints of 'Forge of Mordor':
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 29/04/2026
Excellent analysis of the rise and fall of Russian volunteer-driven efforts to provide drones and other supplies to the front in the war in Ukraine from @sambendett.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social - warontherocks.com/the-strange-...
warontherocks.com
The Strange Rise and Fall of Russia’s Crowd Sourced Defense Industry
In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer
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Reposted by Michael Kofman
Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
I tend to come down w/Kofman; I think it's not so much talking past each other as it is trying to figure out how to slice two fundamentally different analytical questions: - what is the military assessment of a force performing a task - what is the political assessment inside a leader's head
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
A new episode of Russia Contingency is out. I talk to Sergey Vakulenko about Russia’s energy sector. We cover declining production, how the Russian state receives revenue, impact of strikes and the war with Iran. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Despite Rising Prices, Russia's Oil Sector is in a Tight Spot
Mike talks with Sergey Vakulenko, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Berlin and former Russian energy sector insider, about the mounting pressures on Russia's oil industry through...
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Joseph Britt @zathras5.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Weekend listen: @warontherocks.bsky.social update on the war in Ukraine with @michaelkofman.bsky.social & @ryanevans.bsky.social. An invaluable resource since Russia launched its invasion over four years ago. This week: grey zones, Wagnerization, and drones. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
podcasts.apple.com
Update from the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia
Podcast Episode · War on the Rocks · April 9 · 28m
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Part 2 of the Russia Contingency episode is out with Rob Lee. We cover insights from the latest field study, situation at the front, drone enabled assault and other issues. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Spring 2026, Part 2
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee continue their discussion of the Russo-Ukrainian War based on their latest field study. They assess the battlefield outlook for 2026,...
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Back from a recent field study to Ukraine. New Russia Contingency episode is out with Rob Lee talking about our insights from the recent trip, the changing battlefield dynamics, with a focus on long range strike in part 1. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Spring 2026, Part 1
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee compare notes on developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War based on their latest field study. They discuss the evolution of Russian...
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Latest Russia Contingency is out. I join @oajonsson.bsky.social and Maria Engqvist to talk about how the Russian military see the future of war, their lessons learned, gaps between theory and practice, and what to make of Russian military thought. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Russian Perceptions on the Future of War
Mike talks with Oscar Jonsson and Maria Engqvist about Russian thinking on the future of war. They discuss how Russian military thinkers view the lessons...
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Oscar Jonsson @oajonsson.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
What are the Russian visions of future war? How should they solve the problems of the war in Ukraine and prepare for the future? And what does studies in military theory tell us anyway? Happy to discuss with Maria and @michaelkofman.bsky.social in the Russia Contingency @warontherocks.bsky.social
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David French @davidfrenchjag.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I talked to Michael Kofman, a voice I truly trust, on the course of the Russian invasion. The war is grim, but there are seeds of hope: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | ‘Time Is Not on Russia’s Side’
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Good discussion with Meduza here. meduza.io/en/brief/202...
meduza.io
This was Russia today Wednesday, February 25, 2026 — Meduza
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Good discussion on how the war evolved, the role of drones, what is novel or perhaps new. www.svoboda.org/a/ot-fpv-do-...
svoboda.org
От FPV до НРК. Как война в Украине влияет на тактику и оружие
Российское полномасштабное вторжение в Украину длится уже четыре года. За это время тактика ведения военных действий и ключевые системы вооружений кардинально изменились. Станет ли украинский опыт обр...
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Happy to talk to David French for this Q&A. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | ‘Time Is Not on Russia’s Side’
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
The latest RC is out with @massdara.bsky.social We go through some of the current myths, arguments, and assumptions about the war. From judging offensives to attrition ratios & my rant on how CENTCOM is about to spend everyone’s munitions. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
The War After Four: Myths, Arguments, and Assumptions
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mike is joined by Dara Massicot to reassess the war and the debates that have defined it....
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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
After four years of grinding conflict, Russia’s war on Ukraine is increasingly defined by adaptation, endurance, and exhaustion. Senior Fellow @michaelkofman.bsky.social gives his latest assessment of battlefield dynamics in @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...
foreignaffairs.com
Ukraine’s War of Endurance
The fight for advantage in the conflict’s fifth year.
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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
"For all intents and purposes traditional arms control between the United States and Russia is done. The question is what now?" Senior Fellow @michaelkofman.bsky.social in @warontherocks.bsky.social on Russian nuclear modernization after the end of New START: warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...
warontherocks.com
Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START
John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones”: an apt depiction of the current discourse
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Happy to share the latest. My views on the current battlefield dynamics and where the war stands in 2026. Happy to share the latest. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...
foreignaffairs.com
Ukraine’s War of Endurance
The fight for advantage in the conflict’s fifth year.
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Some thoughts here to add to the conversation on post New START. warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...
warontherocks.com
Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START
John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones”: an apt depiction of the current discourse
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
The latest Russia contingency episode is out. I sat down with @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the Russia-Ukraine war, looking at the key issues, insights gained, and questions answered over the course of 2025. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
A Year of War: The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2025
Mike is joined by Ryan for a wide-ranging, year-in-review of the war in Ukraine. They walk through the major phases of fighting in 2025, examining...
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Matthew Bell @matthewjbell.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Still plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Trump administration's latest push for an end to the war in Ukraine. Thanks @ivodaalder.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social for speaking with me -- theworld.org/segments/202...
theworld.org
Analysts skeptical about chance for Ukraine-Russia peace deal - The World from PRX
The White House says it’s making “tremendous progress” on a peace plan for Ukraine. And there might be a deal as soon as Thanksgiving Day. US and Ukrainian officials have been modifying a 28-point pea...
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee and I talk about our recent impressions from a field study in Ukraine. We discuss what’s changed since July, key trends, and look at different parts of the front. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Fall 2025 - War on the Rocks
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee return with fresh insights from their latest field study in Ukraine. Their conversation covers how Russia is adapting to Ukrainian...
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Brian Whitmore @powervertical.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak to the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the battle for Pokrovsk and what it means for the broader trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/11/07/t...
powervertical.org
THE POKROVSK ENDGAME – AND AFTERMATH
powervertical · THE BATTLE OF POKROVSK Russia continues to focus its firepower on the strategic and battered eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said th…
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com
Ukrainian Drone Unit Commander Shares Lessons from the Front - War on the Rocks
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @massdara.bsky.social and @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the current course of the war, recent developments, and policy trajectory here in DC. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/10/hold...
warontherocks.com
Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence
Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss the state of the front, how Ukraine and Russia are staying in the fight, the possible provision of
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi to talk about the fall 2022 nuclear crisis. Was it a crisis? What do we think happened? Three years on, do we know now that can shed more light on this period? warontherocks.com/episode/ther... @warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com
The 2022 Nuclear Crisis: A Retrospective - War on the Rocks
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Alexandre Jubelin @alexjubelin.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
Pour le plaisir, un autre extrait de l’émission avec @michaelkofman.bsky.social, où l’on parle du grand coup de génie des Russes qu’est l’emploi de motocross, et de ce que ça nous apprend.
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug
t.co
https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/36087/finlands-frontline-and-natos-northern-defense/
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David Cadier @davidcadier.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard! October 6 www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...
irsem.fr
Strategic Lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War: Implications for European Security - IRSEM
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get. Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "Half-Baked Alaska" On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result. (£/free to read) samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...
samf.substack.com
Half-Baked Alaska
Moving from ceasefire to full settlement
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...
warontherocks.com
Willpower, Not Manpower, is Europe’s Main Limitation for a Force in Ukraine - War on the Rocks
Following a dramatic meeting in the White House, U.S. military support for Ukraine is perilously uncertain. Sustaining Ukraine in this war, and
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Brian Whitmore @powervertical.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...
powervertical.org
THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER
powervertical · THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER Russia’s summer offensive is in full swing with Moscow capitalizing on a series of small advances in an attempt to reshape control of the front l…
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Recently met this great UA customs inspector
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Christopher Miller @christopherjm.ft.com · 25/07/2025
Uh oh. Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com
ft.com
Zelenskyy MPs balk at restoring anti-corruption bodies over “revenge” fears
MPs fearing prosecution refuse to vote on bill that restores independence of anti-corruption agencies
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...
open.spotify.com
How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back
War on the Rocks · Episode
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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...
warontherocks.com
I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks
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