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Felix Geiger

@flxgeiger.bsky.social
1.7K followers 1.1K following 75 posts

@bundesbank | views are my own | private | monetary policy, financial markets, finance, economics | retweets, likes and following do not imply endorsement

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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵: 𝗠𝗜𝗟𝗔 (𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆-𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁) We introduce MILA—a new AI-driven solution for analyzing central bank communication. MILA operates on individual sentences by using the macro and in-document context. 1/n
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Deutsche Bundesbank @bundesbank.de · 09/04/2025
Guten Morgen aus #Frankfurt! Wir begrüßen Sie auf unserem offiziellen Bluesky-Kanal!👋 Ab heute halten wir Sie hier über alles Wissenswerte rund um die #Geldpolitik, #Bankenaufsicht und #Finanzstabilität sowie über viele weitere Aufgaben der #Bundesbank auf dem Laufenden. #HerzlichWillkommen
(c) Nadine Jakobs
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
How to measure the broader monetary policy stance in the euro area? In our latest @bundesbank.de report, we present the proxy monetary policy rate, which combines information from the risk-free yield curve and risk assets. 1\ #EconSky @plieberk.bsky.social
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
At @bundesbank.de, we have developed 𝗠𝗜𝗟𝗔 (𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆-𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁) - an AI tool designed to evaluate ECB communication, assessing individual sentences from monetary policy statements and speeches given in-document as well as the macro context. \1 #EconSky
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
The script has flipped 🌎 - Euro area macro drives euro yields aka Bunds up - US macro drives these yields down.
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
US Treasuries: slide. 🛝 Bunds: hold my beer. 🍺
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Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @isabelschnabel.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Yesterday I delivered a speech with the title “No longer convenient? Safe asset abundance and r*” at the @bankofengland.bsky.social's #2025BEARconference. Let me summarise the main messages in a 🧵. 1/16
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
This is an important observation by @isabelschnabel.bsky.social: Typically, tight monetary policy transmits also by increasing risk premia on financial markets. Without it, transmission is notably weaker. During the recent hiking cycle, we did not observe this feature. bsky.app/profile/flxg...
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Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @isabelschnabel.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
In my interview with @financialtimes.com published today I explained my current thinking about the @ecb.europa.eu ’s monetary policy and gave some personal reflections on the upcoming update of our monetary policy strategy. Let me briefly summarise the main points in a 🧵. 1/16
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European Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 19/02/2025
As we can no longer be confident that our monetary policy is restrictive, the direction of travel is less clear, Executive Board member @isabelschnabel.bsky.social tells @financialtimes.com. We are nearing the point where we may need to pause or halt our rate cuts. www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/...
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Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @isabelschnabel.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Many #ECB watchers have waited for this article. Chart A shows the huge model uncertainty surrounding the estimates. Adding parameter and filter uncertainty, data revisions and considering all models (not just those available for Q4 2024), you can see what we know about r* ... very little.
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Moritz Kuhn @mokuhn.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
To all econ students on the market and advisors: I am thinking about filling an additional postdoc position at the University of Mannheim working on portfolio choice, wealth inequality, and labor markets. Interested? If yes, please let me know! sites.google.com/site/kuhneco...
sites.google.com
Moritz Kuhn
Moritz Kuhn Professor Department of Economics University of Mannheim L 7, 3-5, 68161 Mannheim, Germany mokuhn@uni-mannheim.de +49 621 181 1929 Office hours: please send an email (judith.price@uni-ma...
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International and Monetary Economics Network @intmon.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
It's high time to have another look at interesting papers like this one! "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies" by Norbert Metiu. Article in the Journal of International Economics: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
🧵As 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺𝘀 took center stage these days - Chart depicts dynamics for US and EA 1/n ➡️99-12: strong co-movement ➡️12-20: EA term premium collapses relative to US ➡️22-24: de-compression more pronounced in EA ➡️since mid-24: degree of US term premium rise is only partly matched by EA #EconSky
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
An executive order to defeat inflation: "I hereby order the heads of all executive departments and agencies to deliver emergency price relief, consistent with applicable law, to the American people and increase the prosperity of the American worker." www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
The folks obsessively posting about egg prices for the past few years have gone strangely quiet just as egg prices hit an all-time high.
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
🧵In our latest report of @bundesbank.de, we examine how 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀' 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗲 in the euro area interacts with 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀. Key takeaways ⬇️1/n #EconSky
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
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Eintracht Frankfurt @eintracht.de · 17/01/2025
🥹❤️ only in Frankfurt! #SGE | #SGEBVB
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Johannes Hillje @jhillje.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Das ZEW hat ausgerechnet, welche Einkommensgruppen von den Wahlprogrammen der Parteien jeweils am stärksten profitieren: www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/art...
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Curd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
Graph that shows the sum of tweets and their impressions by members of the German Bundestag (Parliament), clustered by party. The blue AfD is a clear outlier with around 400 tweets and just under 40 million impressions.
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Great paper showing why the US economy keeps surprising to the upside despite high policy rates. ➡️Financial conditions may be loose with high stock valuations and compressed risk spreads ➡️For the economy these conditions matter ➡️By targeting financial conditions, Fed may reduce output volatility
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NBER @nber.org · 04/12/2024
Financial noise disrupts markets and the real economy. Monetary policy that targets financial conditions can stabilize the economy by recruiting arbitrageurs to trade against noise, from Ricardo J. Caballero, Tomás E. Caravello and Alp Simsek www.nber.org/papers/w33206
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European Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 16/01/2025
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB on 11-12 December 2024 www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accoun...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
New paper: "𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆". We measure the facial and vocal expressions of the ECB presidents at a high frequency. With @jens-klose.bsky.social, @sinemkandemir.bsky.social, Mamadou-Lamine Barry, Brenton J. Bruns and Victor Smirnov. The paper: lnkd.in/eR4AXeiz
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European Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 13/01/2025
Chief Economist Philip R. Lane tells @derstandard.at how we have made significant progress on our inflation target and that we need inflation to be sustainably at 2 per cent. Read his interview www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/...
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Falko Fecht @falkofecht.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
You are pursuing a PhD in economics or finance? You are particularly interested in banking and finance? You have strong empirical skills? You should apply for an RA position in the Research Centre @bundesbank.de ! Deadline: January 12th !!! 👇 #econsky www.bundesbank.de/en/career/jo...
bundesbank.de
Research Assistant in the areas of banking and finance / monetary policy implementation and transmission
in Part-time (19,5 hours)
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International and Monetary Economics Network @intmon.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Worth thinking about! "Coordinating the Message: Media Coverage of Fed News and Market Reactions" by Sylvérie Herbert, Klodiana Istrefi, and Béatrice Sagna. www.banque-france.fr/en/publicati...
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Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Looking at 88,717 European food and beverage manufacturers over the 2013-2022 period, they find no evidence of #greedflation. Mark-ups in fact declined. HT @bachmannrudi.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Has corporate greed driven inflation in the European Union? An analysis of the food and beverage industry
The EU has recently experienced high inflation rates, particularly in food prices. This observation led to claims in the news and by retailers that la…
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David Beckworth @davidbeckworth.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
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Owen Zidar @omzidar.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Pretty striking findings! www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/...
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ulbrich-jens.bsky.social @ulbrich-jens.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
1/5) Should we be worried about the deterioration in US labour market conditions? One important concept has been the #Sahm-Rule#. We look at it and argue in #MonthlyReport that US recessionary risks remain contained. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
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ulbrich-jens.bsky.social @ulbrich-jens.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
1/6) Unser aktueller Ausblick auf die deutschen Staatsfinanzen: Bruch der Regierung erfordert keinen restriktiven Haushaltskurs. Bundeshaushalt 2024 entwickelt sich besser als geplant. Vorläufige Haushaltsführung erlaubt stetigen Kurs 2025. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
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Paweł Ausir Dembowski @ausir.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Germany has fallen.
Please note that the Deutsche Bundesbank can no longer be reached by fax as of 31.01.2025.
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Distributional Wealth Accounts in the Euro Area ➡️still impressed by this quite new and highly valuable quarterly data set ➡️still impressed by the evolution of key metrics here: median net wealth at the country level 1/3
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
“We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5.”
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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
German bond investors bet on an end to Berlin’s ‘debt brake’ on.ft.com/4fFiVee
on.ft.com
German bond investors bet on an end to Berlin’s ‘debt brake’
A key indicator has fallen below zero for the first time as market braces for higher German borrowing
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Here’s a crazy fact for you: Spain and Germany have now seen basically the exact same amount of economic growth post-2008. Would have been unthinkable to people during most of the 2010s. Spain has seen ~10 percentage points more cumulative growth since 2017.
A graph comparing Spanish and German gdp, which diverge in 2008 but reconverge between 2017-2024
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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Happy to accept this friendly amendment. I've written before about the broader set of steps Europe needs to take to be competitive in digital and agree that capital markets union and digital union are essential for industries that require scale. www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...
lemonde.fr
Rapport Draghi : « Un grand nombre de ces réformes permettraient à l’économie européenne de se rapprocher du niveau de l’économie américaine »
TRIBUNE. L’Europe enregistre un niveau de productivité bien moindre que celui qu’elle devrait avoir, ce qui accentue son retard sur les Etats-Unis, observe l’économiste Jason Furman dans une tribune a...
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
The usual suspects are out there yelling "There are 23 million government workers! Fire most of them!" No awareness that most work for local governments, and most of *them* are schoolteachers. Federal employment hasn't grown since the 1950s
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Forthcoming in the AER: "Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy" by Matteo Benetton, Alessandro Gavazza, and Paolo Surico. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
aeaweb.org
Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy
(Forthcoming Article) - This paper provides novel evidence on lenders' mortgage pricing and how central bank policies affected it. Using the universe of mortgages originated in the UK, we show that le...
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BrokenBanker @brokenbanker.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
full European PMIs well under 50, and now we have UK, which have also just slipped under 50 on the Composite, as both Manufacturing and Services miss expectations:
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Rudi Bachmann @bachmannrudi.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Unpopuläre Meinung: diese Parteisoldatenkampagnen gegen “Blackrock” Merz und “Goldman” Kukies sind abstoßend, geradezu widerlich. Was soll das? Beurteilt sie doch nach ihren Politiken. Beide hätten doch dort oder ähnlichwo bleiben und viel reicher werden können.
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Most repos secured by Italian government bonds are traded between counterparties within the euro area, particularly counterparties from Germany. By contrast, repos with German government bonds often involve counterparties outside the euro area. Source: publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Corporate insolvencies in Germany have risen further in 2024, but from low levels. Source: publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Corporate insolvencies in Germany have risen further in 2024, but from low levels. Source: publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Most repos secured by Italian government bonds are traded between counterparties within the euro area, particularly counterparties from Germany. By contrast, repos with German government bonds often involve counterparties outside the euro area. Source: publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
A new (ish) Fed study shows that ECB policy tightening disproportionately hurt Germany www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
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Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Hi, can you help me? I want to develop a model that makes risk predictions. Use logistic regression. Can I use some more modern techniques, like AI? Use a neural network with single non-hidden feed forward layer that outputs to a single dimension using a sigmoid activation function.
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Felix Geiger @flxgeiger.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
➡️ 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 over risk-free OIS rates will likely to remain in this chart when monitoring EA spreads. ➡️Italian spread over Bunds trading lower than over OIS. This reflects regime change with 𝗕𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗢𝗜𝗦 recently. 2 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗔 𝘀𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀. #Econsky
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