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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The SNB has little reason to raise rates soon. But with inflation close to the midpoint of its 0–2% price-stability range, growth solid and policy still expansionary, the next move is more likely to be up than down gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/the-snb-th...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

The SNB: The Next Move Is Up, But Not Yet

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In today’s post, I argue that too little forward guidance risks making central banks captive to volatile market expectations. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/when-centr...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

When central banks say nothing at all

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

In today’s post, I look at why the ECB raised rates again. The key is the surprising resilience of the euro-area economy despite the energy shock. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/the-ecb-hi...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

The ECB Hikes Again

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

What moves two-year yields? The biggest daily moves this year have been triggered by Kevin Warsh. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/what-two-y...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

What Two-Year Yields Tell Us About Kevin Warsh

(Short comment)

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

In today's post, I look at the ECB's latest monetary policy account, which runs to almost 10,000 words. For the second time, I asked ChatGPT to cut it to 1,000 -- without losing the substance. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/take-2-the...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

Take 2: The ECB’s 10,000 Words vs ChatGPT’s 1,000

A longer read

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

In today’s post, I argue that I may have had the ECB’s reaction function backwards. The account of the ECB’s July meeting, released last week, suggests that avoiding another rate hike requires the inflation outlook to improve significantly. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/the-ecb-ac...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

The ECB Accounts Make a September Hike Look More Likely

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Today’s Substack post looks at the case for further ECB rate hikes. The latest PMIs point to stronger euro-area economic activity, increasing the likelihood that the ECB will tighten policy again. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/ecb-my-cas...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

My Case Against Further ECB Hikes Is Fading

Short commentary

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Today’s Substack post is on the Riksbank’s August meeting. Inflation has been somewhat stronger than expected, but the labour market remains weak, leaving the Riksbank playing for time while keeping the possibility of a rate hike later this year alive. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/the-riksba...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

The Riksbank Plays for Time

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

In today’s Substack post, the third on Norges Bank, I look at why lower-than-expected inflation was enough to keep rates on hold in August, but not enough for Norges Bank to abandon its tightening bias. Another rate increase remains firmly on the table. gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/norges-ban...

gerlachmacro.substack.com

Norges Bank's August Meeting

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

What drives Norges Bank's interest-rate decisions? In today's post, I study this using a simple reaction function. The results point to an average neutral nominal policy rate of around 2% between 2010 and 26. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

Norges Bank: The Reaction Function

A longer read

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The absence of spillovers from higher energy prices into broader inflation explains why central banks remain cautious. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

Why Central Banks Aren’t Raising Rates

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

To understand Norwegian monetary policy, it pays to understand Norges Bank’s monetary policy framework. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

Norges Bank: The Monetary Policy Framework

(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Singapore's economy has remained remarkably resilient since the MAS tightened policy in April. The upcoming policy meeting will show how policymakers now assess the balance of inflation and growth risks. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

Singapore: Three Months After April’s Tightening

(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

In today’s post, I discuss the ECB’s accounts of its monetary policy meetings and consider how they could be made more effective. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

Why the ECB's Monetary Policy Accounts Should Be Much Shorter

(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Yesterday the SNB published the summary from its policy meeting in June. If you are interested in Swiss monetary policy, these are very good reads -- informative and to the point. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

The SNB's June Monetary Policy Assessment

(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Is the ECB practising opportunistic disinflation? If inflation is only modestly above target, weak growth and high public debt may argue for patience rather than aggressive tightening. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

Is the ECB Practising Opportunistic Disinflation?

(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Central bank independence was only part of the Bank of England’s success in 1997. Equally important was the extraordinary calibre of the MPC. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...

open.substack.com

The Bank of England's MPC Is Not What It Used to Be

Formerly Swiss Macro and History

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Markets are overestimating Kevin Warsh's influence on the Federal Reserve. Fed chairs gain influence by persuading colleagues, not directing them. And if the Chair communicates less, regional Fed presidents will fill the vacuum. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

open.substack.com

Markets Are Overestimating Kevin Warsh's Influence

Many investors believe that Kevin Warsh will quickly reshape the Federal Reserve.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

“On Wednesday, [Warsh] said markets had come to rely on central bankers’ guidance to such an extent that it created an echo chamber in which prices were more likely to reflect the Fed’s views than investors’.” And why is that a problem? www.ft.com/content/6a93...

ft.com

Kevin Warsh’s push to axe Fed guidance may lift US borrowing costs, investors warn

Traders see more volatility ahead as new central bank chair declines to give dot plot on future path of interest rates

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

The Riksbank announces its policy decision on Wednesday. The policy rate will almost certainly remain unchanged at 1.75%. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

open.substack.com

This Week's Riksbank Decision: The Story Is Not the Rate

The Riksbank announces its policy decision on Wednesday.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Stable inflation expectations are not evidence that the ECB can be passive, but evidence that the public expects it to act when necessary to maintain price stability. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

open.substack.com

Anchored Inflation Expectations Are No Reason for the ECB to Hesitate

Inflation expectations in the euro area look reassuringly well anchored.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

My thoughts on this week’s ECB meeting. Either hike once and stop, or hike three times in a row. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

open.substack.com

The ECB in July: Hike or Stop

It is hard to make sense of market expectations of ECB policy.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Leaving MIA on the way to PDX.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

For many ECB policymakers, the most relevant historical comparison may not be 2021–22. It may be 2011, when the ECB tightened into a supply shock and quickly had to reverse. New post on why the case for holding is underappreciated. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

open.substack.com

The ECB and the case for doing nothing

In April and July 2011, the ECB raised interest rates in response to rising energy prices.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

The Riksbank is likely to stay on hold, but the balance of risks is shifting. In today’s post I look at the upcoming decision and what the energy shock means for Swedish monetary policy. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/riksbank-w...

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

Riksbank Will Hold as Energy Risks Build

Sweden goes into the Riksbank decision on May 7 with inflation well below target, but unlikely to stay there.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Some thoughts on why central banks did not raise rates last week. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/better-to-...

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

Better to Be Late Than Wrong, For Now

Source: Trading Economics

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

In this week’s post, I discuss whether the UK wage-price process has shifted in recent years. I argue that it has not, and that monetary policy needs to remain somewhat tight to bring inflation back to target. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

open.substack.com

The UK Inflation Process Is Still Intact

Markets behave as if the UK inflation process has changed.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

“Markets price the mean, while central banks worry about the distribution” or, as President Lyndon Johnson put it, “Ranges are for cattle. Give me a number” swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/markets-pr...

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

Markets price the mean, while central banks worry about the distribution

“Ranges are for cattle.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

I think this is right. It is important not to confuse market expectations with central banks’ intentions. They often coincide but not always. www.ft.com/content/a341...

ft.com

Markets wrong on UK interest rate rises, say economists

Forecasters argue a weak economy will prevent the energy shock fuelling persistent inflation

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Reposted by Stefan Gerlach

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Re: all the stuff about 1yr inflation breakevens in the US at the end of last week. Two things are notable: 1. inflation swaps haven't moved to the same extent. 2. The 1yr 1yr fwd swap is at 2.5%, roughly consistent with the Fed's target. The market isn't pricing in an inflation problem.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Some thoughts on why central banks are unlikely to change interest rates this week: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/central-ba...

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

Central Banks and the Case for Inaction

This will be an unusually busy week for central banks.

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Stefan Gerlach @sgerlach.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

In today’s post I discuss the ex-energy measure of euro area inflation and argue that it does a surprisingly good job explaining ECB decisions. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/ex-energy-...

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

Ex-Energy Inflation and ECB Interest Rate Decisions

Suppose oil prices had remained near $100 per barrel after the recent conflict in the Gulf.

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