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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

you dont have to believe in the bond vigilantes to see that a global bond market selloff is not a good time to draw attention to yourself by doing something stupid.. #UKbudget

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I don't wanna sound flippant, but if there is a "crisis" in bond markets, central banks have the tools to fix it (even even you don't like those solutions...). worry about the shit they cant fix

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

what is driving yields? oil ✅ growth resilience ✅ monetary policy ✅ Fed credibility ❌ fiscal risk ❌ fiscal dominance ❌ debasement ❌ Yen carry trade ❌ crowding out ❌

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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The real courage? Sending out that note as newsletter :)

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

at 185cm, he's a little taller than Powell

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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

this guy? :)

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Heard on Bloomberg: "maybe Warsh is the new Volcker". Let's not get carried away. Only took 25bps to change the narrative though.....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

So under political heat over the stupid QT programme, the Bank of England is basically handing the entire problem over to the Treasury - so the Treasury can pull a Bessent? It that what this is?

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Warsh citing the economy's strength to justify the hike was a bit like the man on the street who, are tripping slighty, does that long, staggered jog to hide his embarrassment...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

TERRIFYING: For the first time since the Summary of Economic Projections started being published, there are zero members who see downside risks to GDP growth (Kevin Gordon)

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The sock puppet narrative just died, as it should. Or maybe the bond market is just scarier than the President 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

they dont give me enough characters here so I'll have to screenshot this...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

You need to be lucky or smart to be Fed chair and so far Warsh has been neither 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The outcome that would surprise most people - no rate hike and a rally in bonds. Literally everyone thinks a failure to lift rates would trigger a fierce bond selloff... tbh thats probably why the Fed will hike - fear of the market response...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Daughter is reffing. A kid just scored a free kick from the halfway line and his coach said "thats much better boys" 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

If you look beyond all the angst and punditry about fiscal policy, issuance, "liquidity" and CB "credibility", the story in bonds is that markets are pricing a relatively modest global tightening cycle in response to higher-for-longer energy prices . Really not that remarkable

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Warsh thinks the bond market is a genius. Bessent thinks its an idiot (and he is the genius....). I dunno who to believe 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Remember when Warsh said he was hoping the bond market, "the smartest economist in the world", would give him a signal about what to do with interest rates....?

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NelderMead @neldermead.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Too many nutters chasing too few facts

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

the "monetarists-were-right-about-COVID-inflation (lets all track the money supply)" crowd seem to have forgotten that those same monetarists all turned into uber bearish recessionistas once the money supply started to contract...which was totally the wrong call

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Some people actually wanted it to rain more....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Warsh isnt credible until Trump is calling him an idiot. I dont make the rules....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

we are now a the point where, even if Warsh was a politically compromised as everyone says, he should still hike rates just to make it less obvious 😂😂

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

the big issue with all this focus on one MoM CPI number is that there seems to be residual seasonality in the data. Summers are soft.

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

lots of people say the Fed wont hike because Warsh would be breaking his promise to Trump. Unfortunately, that is literally the best argument for hiking....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

thats the metric someone just used on Bloomberg TV. This is what you get when you ask "smart" markets for an "unfiltered policy signal"...........

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

So let me get this straight, if inflation is 0.2% mom everything is good... but if its 0.3% mom the the Fed should definitely hike. Doesn't that strike anyone as a bit dumb?

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Actually you can but it's just not very enjoyable for anyone, really.

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

"you cant put the shit back in the donkey" @katie0martin.ft.com on the global bond selloff 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

the dangers of wild extrapolation... 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

was thinking about this current batch of US policymakers and - completely unrelatedly, of course - it reminded me of something Martin Amis said about the difference between assholes (US) and arseholes (British). "We are all assholes from time to time, but an arsehole is an arsehole all the time." 🤣

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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Yields never rise, when they go up they're borrowing costs. It's like the Andy Murray Scottish/British rule

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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 02/09/2026

also when they're rising it's RACHEL REEVES' FAULT and when they are falling it is ALSO RACHEL REEVES' FAULT. This applies even when she is not the chancellor

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Never forget: - when yields are rising, its A FISCAL CRISIS - when they are falling, A RECESSION IS COMING I dont make the rules

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

interesting blog suggests tax distortions artificially depressed the wage share. Company owners are paying themselves in profits rather than wages. Analysis stops in 2017 but you have to think these distortions have only become larger since COVID everywheremillionaire.substack.com/p/why-the-la...

everywheremillionaire.substack.com

Why the Labor Share Keeps Falling: Taxes!

Pass-throughs, the 2017 and 2023 tax reforms, and the falling labor share

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Sitting on a beach near Rimini, reading La Gazzetta's guide to the new Serie A season (paper copy). This is the life...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

lovely blog from @roblind.bsky.social on Warsh and why he doesn't yet have the credibility to drive his reform effort. Perhaps - just perhaps - that is also why his FOMC colleagues are so free with their "backroom gossip"? robertlind529294.substack.com/p/warsh-is-s...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

So its turns out that Trump is now the only one getting any form of "forward guidance" from Warsh....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

At first, I thought there was an irony/contradiction in this new breed of US policymakers - they come from a "markets background" and yet constantly want to intervene in & manipulate markets. But actually it makes sense: they just think they are smarter than the market....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Great piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com on the Warsh inconsistencies. The Anna Wong response he quotes still astounds me... how can you praise a Fed chair for what is basically just spin?

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

There's a rumour going round - no idea where it started - that Kevin watches back all his press conferences on TV, while cheering himself on and heckling the journalists... 😉

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Nigel Anderson @blinkcursor.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

"The market hiked for him" until it came time for him to follow through on the market's hike and when he didn't the curve steepens to unwind its own pre-emptive hike and throws in a bit more for lost credibility, too, so, yeah, that letting the market do his work for him sure is a big win all round

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

"The market hiked for him". Yeah but eventually you have to validate those expectations. Otherwise inflation expectations rise and real yields fall back...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

The Warsh approach to dropping forward guidance isnt v smart. If he really wanted to be smart, he would take the Bailey approach - offer 9 completely different views on the outlook, alongside three different macro scenarios, and present 15 new inflation "indicators". more is less

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theseouldan.bsky.social @theseouldan.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Bit unfair to call him a rookie when he has a well established track record of being consistently wrong during the GFC

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