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Timo Kelder

@timokelder.bsky.social
280 followers 340 following 9 posts

Researcher @CAS_climate | PhD @lborogeog | climate extremes #UNSEEN | Caribbean climate resilience #hometown | Views my own

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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Plausible record-shattering heat extremes Several recent forecast cycles have shown the possibility of >41°C in northern Switzerland and southern Germany during the first week of August. For many Swiss stations, this would exceed the current all-time record by 2–4°C.
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Can climate models reproduce observed trends? The answer can be challenging. Our new review paper in Science Advances led by Isla Simpson and Tiffany Shaw @drshaw.bsky.social discusses challenges and ways forward in confronting climate models and observations. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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Timo Kelder @timokelder.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
We made a short video on our paper 'how to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather' 👇
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
LieseC @adaptableme.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
It’s rare these days for an article to get me excited but this one sets out some excellent perspectives. #climatestorylines #unprecedentedweather #adapt www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather - Nature Communications
Unprecedented weather events are increasingly impacting societies worldwide. This Perspective explores methods to anticipate such hazards, and it highlights the role of transformative, incremental, an...
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Nature Communications @natcomms.nature.com · 10/03/2025
New perspective article by Kelder et al. explores methods to anticipate unprecedented #weather events and highlights the role of transformative, incremental, and reactive #adaptation strategies to achieve enhanced #resilience. @stichtingcas.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather - Nature Communications
Unprecedented weather events are increasingly impacting societies worldwide. This Perspective explores methods to anticipate such hazards, and it highlights the role of transformative, incremental, an...
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Dr. Sarah Fortner @erthsarah.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
For folks working with communities on climate action there is some excellent framing. Paying attention to stories helps process the new extreme/ reality & need for transformation. A story that resonated with me this year was ice rinks going out of business. We must respond.
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 11/03/2025
What do we do with this information? More transformative adaptation in advance to ensure greater resilience means less reactive adaptation required when the unprecedented event occurs.
The conceptual adaptation pyramid illustrates how three layers of adaptation contribute to resilience to unprecedented weather. (a) An unstable pyramid: with little transformative actions, we increase our reliance on incremental adaptation and place a lot of emphasis on handling unprecedented weather through early warning, early action and disaster response. (b) A stable pyramid: with more emphasis on transformative actions, we may be able to prevent limits to incremental adaptation, and have to place less emphasis on reactive actions.
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Enjoyed being involved in this new perspective led by @timokelder.bsky.social, where we show the value of using multiple lines of evidence to assess plausible yet unprecedented extreme events that we need to be preparing for 🌍🌧️🌀🌡️
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather? Transformative adaptation, foundation for long-term resilience, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation - early action and disaster response. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Nature Communications - Unprecedented weather events are increasingly impacting societies worldwide. This Perspective explores methods to anticipate such hazards, and it highlights the role of...
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 11/03/2025
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather Kelder et al. discusses a multitude of ways that we could anticipate unprecedented weather events that might otherwise be a surprise rdcu.be/ecWQF
rdcu.be
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Nature Communications - Unprecedented weather events are increasingly impacting societies worldwide. This Perspective explores methods to anticipate such hazards, and it highlights the role of...
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Prof Lisa Schipper 🌍🍉💪 @lisaschipper.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
How can we stop being surprised by unprecedented weather? Led by @timokelder.bsky.social (+many other colleagues) look at this in a new OA paper in @naturecomms.bsky.social. In particular, we discuss methods for that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Screenshot of the webpage for the new paper 'How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather' out in Nature Communications at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57450-0. The authors are Timo Kelder, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J. Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Robert L. Wilby, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Stephen Burt, Bart van den Hurk, Hylke de Vries, Karin van der Wiel, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Antonio Carmona Baéz, Ellen van Bueren & Erich M. Fischer
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
We have seen many record-shattering and unprecedented weather extremes in recent years. In the paper led by @timokelder.bsky.social we review methods on how to stop being surprised by the next one.
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Karin van der Wiel @karinvdwiel.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Excited to have been part of this perspective, led by @timokelder.bsky.social, discussing how society can build resilience to, rather than be surprised by, unprecedented weather: 💪 vs 😱 Includes a review of methods to anticipate events, and discussion on adaptation practice and disaster management.
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Timo Kelder @timokelder.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
1/ How to Stop Being Surprised by Unprecedented Weather Our new @naturecomms.bsky.social paper provides our multi-author perspective on methods to anticipate extreme weather and reduce impacts, shifting from reacting with surprise towards resilience. 🔗 Read it here: doi.org/10.1038/s414... 🧵⬇️
A GIF of the perspective piece
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Reposted by Timo Kelder
Prof Lisa Schipper 🌍🍉💪 @lisaschipper.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Just for the record, a complete 🧵 of my 🧵 on adaptation. bsky.app/profile/lisa... Part I
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 08/11/2023
#EGU24 High-impact climate events After a year of countless record-breaking extremes, we organize (again) an #EGU24 session on understanding and quantifying such high-impact climate events and developing storylines for them! Submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/sessio...
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