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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social

@ejwagenmakers.bsky.social
369 followers 167 following 159 posts
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Post: Why the One-Sided P-Value Does not Actually Test the Null-Hypothesis With a pretty slick html app www.bayesianspectacles.org/why-the-one-...
bayesianspectacles.org
Why the One-Sided P-Value Does not Actually Test the Null-Hypothesis
It has long been known that the frequentist one-sided p-value from Null-Hypothesis Statistical Testing can be interpreted as a poor person’s Bayesian posterior probability. Specifically, the …
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ingmarvisser.bsky.social @ingmarvisser.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This was a fantastic team effort across 30+ labs 🌍 Paper (open access), data & code all public. > 📄 doi.org/10.1111/desc... > 💻 github.com/manybabies/m... > #ManyBabies #InfantCognition #OpenScience #DevSci, lead team: Andreea Geambaşu, Melanie Soderstrom, and Claartje Levelt
doi.org
ManyBabies 3: A Multi‐Lab Study of Infant Algebraic Rule Learning
The ability to learn and apply rules lies at the heart of cognition. In a seminal study, Marcus et al. (1999) reported that 7-month-old infants learned abstract rules over syllable sequences and were...
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Max Hinne @maxhinne.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Bayesian analyses are great, but making the right model is very challenging. Come work with me on implementing efficient Bayesian multiverses, where we help researchers across empirical domains to improve their models! More information on the Radboud University website: www.ru.nl/en/working-a...
ru.nl
Research Assistant at the Donders Centre for Cognition: Computational Modelling and Scientific Software | Radboud University
Do you want to work as a Research Assistant at the Donders Centre for Cognition: Computational Modelling and Scientific Software? Check our vacancy!
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Dr. Natthapoj Vincent Trakulphadetkrai @natthapoj.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We’re excited to announce the launch of the Andy Field Award, a brand-new age category of our Young Mathematical Story Authors (YMSA) competition for learners aged 16–19 globally. Named in honour of Professor Andy Field. Read more at www.mathsthroughstories.org/news/the-you...
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Heather Urry @heatherurry.io · 24/09/2026
holy fucking shit - see Claude Code (Opus 5.5) rip through a survey eligility test I was really proud of... It requires tracing a route through designated points on a map with server-side Javascript applying eligibility criteria. (1.5 min video)
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🔻Ron @ronvd.eurosky.social · 23/09/2026
shows.acast.com/6565f65cf7e6... Wat een ontroerend, liefdevol en integer gesprek met Rita Spijker in de Skepsis podcast!
shows.acast.com
Skepsis podcast #49 - Rita Spijker | Skepsis podcast
Hoe ga je ermee om als je doodzieke partner zijn heil zoekt bij alternatieve therapieën? En hoe wetenschappelijk is de relatiebemiddeling van Parship?
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Nicolás Sánchez-Fuenzalida @n41c0.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
🙌🍾🎉 new paper w/ @svangaal.bsky.social, Z. van den Hurk @timostein.bsky.social & @fahrenfort.bsky.social where we attempted to replicate a classical unconscious priming study by Vorberg et al. (2003) using an improved single-subject Bayesian approach. 1/8
academic.oup.com
Evidence for unconscious priming using a Bayesian single-subject approach
Abstract. Many studies have claimed the existence of unconscious priming, but a valid statistical procedure for substantiating such claims is often lacking
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Zurich Cognition Lab @cognition-zurich.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Open Postdoc (80%) in our Lab @uzh-ch.bsky.social (PI: Klaus Oberauer) Topics are: Working memory, long-term memory, attention; experiments, individual differences, computational modeling. Start Dec 2026 to Feb 2027, until June 2030. Apply by Oct 15; Questions to: k.oberauer@psychologie.uzh.ch
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Angelos Krypotos (Ψ) @angelosvankr.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
We are looking for a PhD Candidate (Supervisors are Engelhard, Dibbets, Koen, & myself) with the topic "Reducing avoidance by altering threat imagery in panic disorder". Check here for more information: www.academictransfer.com/nl/jobs/3637...
academictransfer.com
PhD Candidate Reducing avoidance by altering threat imagery in panic disorder
Welcome to Maastricht University! Can imagery rescripting reduce avoidance in panic disorder? In this PhD project, you will join an interdisciplinary team and use therapeutic techniques and fundamenta...
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Stichting Skepsis @skepsis.nl · 03/09/2026
Tienerjongens zouden zichzelf met hamers slaan om een betere kaaklijn te ontwikkelen. Hoe ver gaat deze hype nu echt? Menno van den Bos analyseerde het (media)fenomeen bonesmashing in de laatste Skepter ⤵️ skepsis.nl/hamerhype/
skepsis.nl
Hamerhype - bonesmashing
Tienerjongens die zichzelf met hamers slaan om een betere kaaklijn te ontwikkelen: media van Nieuwsuur tot de BBC sloegen onlangs alarm over de gevaren van ‘bonesmashing’. Maar hoe ver gaat deze hype ...
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Alex Holcombe @alexh.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Great news! Some of us have been waiting a long time for major funders to not just shovel $ into the maws of the big publishers, and instead support the long tail of scholar-controlled journals that are run on a shoestring
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rogier kievit @rogierk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Unfortunate, yet understandable and clearly very carefully deliberated course changes at OSF. Anyone who's worked on anything OS related knows that getting funding for exciting new projects is hard, let alone sustained, long term funding. OSF has been the foundation for many improvements in science.
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started, but why? The Wobbly Coin Flip Simulator allows you to see the coin spin around its axis: www.bayesianspectacles.org/wp-content/u.... See also www.bayesianspectacles.org/why-fair-coi... (simulation courtesy of ChatGPT Pro)
bayesianspectacles.org
Coin precession simulation with same-side fraction
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Joachim Vandekerckhove 🏖️ @joachim.cidlab.com · 10/08/2026
👀
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simine vazire @simine.com · 10/08/2026
Special issue at Psych Science on psychological science in the real world! Send us your best work looking at whether effects from the lab (or from theories) hold up in ecologically valid settings. Submission deadline: 15 January 2027 www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...
psychologicalscience.org
Special Issue Call for Submissions: “From Lab to Life: Psychological Science in the Real World”
Editors: Roni Porat and Vishnu SreekumarPsychological Science invites submissions presenting innovative research that brings psychological science “into the wild,” whether to strengthen its ecological...
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JASP @jaspstats.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
We still have a few spots left for our 2026 version of the hybrid JASP Workshop week end of August featuring a day on Discovering Statistics, a day on State-of-the-art Meta Analyses, a day on Machine learning, and two days on Bayesian hypothesis testing😊 (also single days) jasp-stats.org/workshops/
jasp-stats.org
Workshops - JASP - Free and User-Friendly Statistical Software
The JASP team is excited to support four workshops this year (2026). Each of these workshops can be attended either in person (at the University of Amsterdam) or online: On Monday August 24th, we orga...
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ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
arXiv📈🤖 Extracting Bayesian Evidence from Frequentist p-Values By Aust, Pawel, Wagenmakers
The $p$-value and the Bayes factor are measures of evidence that are often considered to be philosophically and mathematically incompatible: The $p$-value quantifies conflict between data and $H_0$ ("surprise"), whereas the Bayes factor quantifies the relative predictive accuracy of $H_0$ versus $H_1$ ("evidence"). We revisit Jeffreys's Approximate Bayes factor (JAB) -- a simple, largely overlooked approximation dating back to the 1930s -- which connects these two paradigms for objective hypothesis testing of the existence of an effect. Under a unit-information prior the approximation requires only the $p$-value and the effective sample size $n_\text{eff}$. We clarify the core assumptions and boundary conditions for the application of JAB and show across 704 published $t$-tests and 39 comparisons of proportions that JAB approximates objective Bayes factors remarkably well. The connection between $p$-values and JAB has a practical implication: The evidence implied by a $p$-value depends strongly on $n_\text{eff}$. Conventional verbal labels for $p$-values (e.g., "strong surprise" for .001 < $p$ < .01) correspond to similarly graded Bayes factors only around $n_\text{eff} \approx 8$; for larger samples the same $p$-value implies weaker evidence. In moderately sized to large samples, $p > .10$ can amount to moderate or even strong evidence for $H_0$. JAB offers a cheap, sample-size-sensitive supplement to $p$-values, computable from routinely reported statistics, that remains valid even under optional stopping.
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 14/07/2026
If you were planning on secretly deviating from your preregistration, you might wanna change plans.
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧-𝐔𝐩 Those interested are encouraged to sign up by 𝐀𝐮𝐠𝐮𝐬𝐭 7 here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
The Institute for Replication (I4R) and UCD School of Economics are jointly organizing the Replication Games (RGs) alongside the EEA-ESEM Congress on 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐀𝐮𝐠𝐮𝐬𝐭 16.
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Overview of free & semi-free API keys for LLM support in JASP, by Thomas Langkamp: jasp-stats.org/2026/07/09/f...
jasp-stats.org
Free API Key Hunting - JASP - Free and User-Friendly Statistical Software
JASPs AI agent needs an API key. The application programming interface allows JASP to communicate with any AI provider, be it Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, or else. It is needed because current Laptop an...
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Trouw @trouw.nl · 07/07/2026
Geweldig nieuws voor alle complotcasters en onzinfluencers: die coronavaccins werken als een tierelier
trouw.nl
Geweldig nieuws voor alle complotcasters en onzinfluencers: die coronavaccins werken als een tierelier
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twist @pvdork.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Set up a fully integrated AI in JASP. Have it provide advice, annotate output, conduct analyses -- and it's 100% free. The blog post shows how this works with Gemini, but other options are available: www.jasp-services.com/set-up-a-ful...
jasp-services.com
Set up a Fully Integrated AI in JASP, and Run it for Freeeee - JASP Services BV
Below I describe how to set up the fully integrated AI in JASP. All of the individual steps are straightforward. If you get lost or if anything is unclear, you can simply ask your favorite LLM for adv...
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Now available as free download: JASP 0.98 with optional AI support! Blog post: jasp-stats.org/2026/07/02/i...
jasp-stats.org
Introducing JASP 0.98: Fully Integrated AI Support - JASP - Free and User-Friendly Statistical Software
We are proud to announce that JASP 0.98 has been released and is now available on our download page. The major innovation in JASP 0.98 is the (optional!) inclusion of fully integrated AI support. This...
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Proud to present a breakthrough development: JASP now with fully integrated AI support. Get the heads-up and read about Alfred, Socrates, and Evelyn at www.jasp-services.com/jasp-with-fu...
jasp-services.com
JASP with Fully Integrated AI, Introduced at the Fraunhofer IPA Quality Day - JASP Services BV
TL;DR The upcoming JASP version (due to appear this week) will bring a fully integrated AI. Use an API key to hook up your own LLM and take advantage of its ability to propose and conduct new analyses...
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Patrick 🥦 @omega2k.de · 26/06/2026
Carl Sagan hat das ja auch sehr eindrücklich erklärt...
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Prof Andy Field @profandyfield.com · 25/06/2026
Want to learn JASP? My colleagues (@ejwagenmakers.bsky.social) at UVA are running workshops in August: jasp-stats.org/2026/02/03/h...
jasp-stats.org
Hybrid Workshop "Discovering Statistics Using JASP", August 24th, 2026 - JASP - Free and User-Friendly Statistical Software
We are happy to announce that the JASP team will offer a week of workshops in Amsterdam this summer.  In this blogpost we’ll highlight the first of four workshops: “Discovering Statistics Using JASP“....
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Frederik Aust @frederikaust.com · 23/06/2026
Have you used Bayes factor to test point-null hypotheses in Hierarchical models and wondered: 1. Bridge sampling (BS) or Savage-Dickey density ratio (SDDR)? 2. If SDDR, which density estimation method? 3. How many MCMC samples? 4. What's the cost-benefit trade-off? This may be of interest to you.
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
We'll showcase JASP at the "Praxistag Qualitaet" in Stuttgart next Friday, with a reveal of some breakthrough new functionality that we'll roll out very soon. Blogpost: www.jasp-services.com/jasp-intro-a... Praxistag website: www.ipa.fraunhofer.de/de/veranstal...
jasp-services.com
JASP Intro at Fraunhofer IPA: Praxistag Qualität 2026 - JASP Services BV
In less than a week, on Friday June 26th, JASP will be presented at the “Praxistag Qualität” at the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation (IPA) in Stuttgart. This is an eve...
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Angelika Stefan @ephemeralidea.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Had a fabulous day in London presenting our project with West Yorkshire Police at the Police STAR Fund event! This is my first funded project as a PI and I am absolutely enthusiastic to work on this for the next year with a fantastic team 😎 @livunipsyc.bsky.social
Conference name badge showing my name and university and the title of the project: "Developing Trustworthy Bayesian Analytics for Risk Assessment in Missing Children Incidents". The badge is blue with a big logo of Science & Technology in Policing.
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Another demonstration of the use of AI in academia. This time, the AI decyphers Feynman's handwriting. Blogpost: www.bayesianspectacles.org/an-ai-decryp... Target paper: Christian et al. (2026). Resolving Feynman’s restaurant problem reveals optimal solutions and human strategies. PNAS, 123.
bayesianspectacles.org
An AI Decryption of Feynman’s Napkin
Before proceeding, I should say something about Richard Feynman. In his physics work, Feyman was clearly a genius. And as a public persona, Feynman was certainly also charismatic (see for instance …
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Stichting Skepsis @skepsis.nl · 16/06/2026
RIP Wim T. Schippers. In 2001 gaven we hem "vanwege zijn onbeschaamde presentatie van de jaarlijkse wetenschapsquiz" onze piramidependelprijs die nog niet zo vaak is uitgereikt. skepsis.nl/piramidepend...
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Katie Corker @katiecorker.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Almost unlimited things to hate in the OMB proposal. But researchers shouldn't let people get away with saying untrue things. If APCs are no longer allowable, researchers can and will find other ways to achieve public access. None of us got into this work to write for each other behind paywalls.
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ejwagenmakers.bsky.social @ejwagenmakers.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
JASP's new GUI for Pareto charts in action. The blog post: www.jasp-services.com/jasp-for-qua... @jasp-services.com Top-notch quality control software on *all* company computers, without an annual licensing fee.
jasp-services.com
JASP for Quality Control, Example 7: The Pareto Chart - JASP Services BV
Named after Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, the Pareto principle states that 20% of the causes (the “vital few”) are reasonsible for 80% of the consequences. Translated to the context of quality co...
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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Seeing @umpamdk.bsky.social as president of @psychscience.bsky.social, along with some fantastic recent editorial decisions (e.g. Nick Eaton at CPS; @simine.com at Psych Science) gives me a lot of hope for the future of the organization.
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Major scientific advances occur when technology makes trivial something that had been extremely burdensome. We are on the verge of the second 1000x one that directly affects my work. It doesn't eliminate work, it makes possible work that previously was just fantasy.
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Prof Andy Field @profandyfield.com · 13/06/2026
The press want you to believe there are violent protests in Brighton today. Counter protesters outnumbered the Fascists by many thousands. We sang, danced, and waved inflatable bananas and hearts in the name of tolerance and diversity. Fascists not welcome in Brighton.
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
This wonderful work shows an AI-assisted workflow that could reduce reproducibility check cost and time by orders of magnitude. Soon, large-scale projects like SCORE may only be needed for training and validation evidence. Talk www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijad... Paper www.leoyang.org/publication/...
youtube.com
Keynote: Yiqing Xu
YouTube video by Stanford Data Science
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Journal of Robustness Reports @robustnessreports.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
A new Robustness Report was recently published in JRR. Check out the article: doi.org/10.21468/JRo.... Check out our blog post: www.journalofrobustnessreports.org/no-evidence-...
journalofrobustnessreports.org
No Evidence that Late-Sighted Individuals Rely More on Color for Object Recognition - Journal of Robustness Reports
In this blog post, we wish to highlight the following article that was recently published in the Journal of Robustness Reports: Wallis, T. S. A. & Martin, J. M. (2026). No evidence that late-sighted i...
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Julia Haaf @juliaha.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
We are currently expanding our Attentional Control Data Collection with new data sets. If you have a (public) data set with an attentional control manipulation (such as Stroop, flanker, Simon, negative priming, etc.), then please add! More info here: www.uni-potsdam.de/en/psych-met...
uni-potsdam.de
Attentional Control Data Collection
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Prof Andy Field @profandyfield.com · 10/06/2026
Giving a talk at Uni of Amsterdam (@ejwagenmakers.bsky.social) today: Statistical Practice in Psychology: The Numbers of the Beast based largely on @martinasladek.bsky.social brilliant PHD work. profandyfield.github.io/presentation...
profandyfield.github.io
Statistical Practice in Psychology: The Numbers of the Beast
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Journal of Robustness Reports @robustnessreports.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New candidate for re-analyses in JRR! Check out our new blog post where we highlight a study about the domain generality of metacognition as a candidate for robustness reports. Link: www.journalofrobustnessreports.org/domain-gener...
journalofrobustnessreports.org
Domain Generality is an Emergent, Not Inherent, Property of Metacognition - Journal of Robustness Reports
In this blogpost we wish to highlight the following article as a candidate for a Robustness Report: Baer, C., Ghetti, S., & Odic, D. (2026). Domain generality is an emergent, not inherent, property of metacognition. Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-026-02443-2 The abstract: We experience some level of confidence in all decisions we make, yet our understanding […]
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Brent W. Roberts @bwroberts.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
This...the fetishizing of unreplicable neuroscience in order to legitimize our work is self-defeating. We don't need to know that depression is in the brain (as opposed to what???) to know it is problematic. How much money have we wasted proving something like depression is "real"?
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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
In case it wasn’t extremely obviously why I and many colleagues here (those still allowed to enter) haven’t been to US conferences in the past 2 years. Friends, please stay safe at the upcoming @improvingpsych.org and @hitop-system.bsky.social conferences.
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František Bartoš @fbartos.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
We still have a couple of spots left for JASP workshops August! 24: Discovering Statistics using JASP 25: State-of-the-Art Meta-Analysis using JASP 26: A Crash Course in Machine Learning with JASP 27-28: Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing with JASP jasp-stats.org/workshops/
jasp-stats.org
Workshops - JASP - Free and User-Friendly Statistical Software
The JASP team is excited to support four workshops this year (2026). Each of these workshops can be attended either in person (at the University of Amsterdam) or online: On Monday August 24th, we orga...
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Daniel Heck @danielheck.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Postdoc position @unimarburg.bsky.social in the project: "Bridging the Gap Between Verbal Psychological Theories & Formal Statistical Modeling with Large Language Models" (funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de) 📅Start: 01.10.2026 |⏳3 years 🔗 Job posting: uni-marburg.de/78NrWT Thanks for sharing!
logo of Psychological Methods Lab
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Neuroskeptic @neuroskeptic.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
"Academics Should Use AI for Writing", says E. J Wagenmakers www.bayesianspectacles.org/why-academic... But he's not saying you should get AI to write *for* you. He's saying you should use AI as a proofreader. "I am meticulous with my writing but ChatGPT had found numerous mistakes."
bayesianspectacles.org
Why Academics Should Use AI for Writing: A Case Study
LT;DR In the current era of AI, there is no longer any excuse for manuscripts that contain typographical errors, grammatical errors, unclear formulations, errors in equations, incorrect references,…
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Rhodri Marsden @rhodri.biz · 25/05/2026
I’d forgotten this magnificent story about Roger Moore (which Facebook just reminded me of) so I’m reposting it here for the clicks
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