iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

These factors claw back around half of the potential gains. See the paper here: www.brookings.edu/articles/can-ai-restore-fiscal-sustainability-in-the-us/

Can AI restore fiscal sustainability in the US? | Brookings

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Three, a smaller workforce may mean more spending on income support programs like SNAP. Four, a shift from labor income to capital income may lower average tax rates. And five, we might be on the cusp of an expensive arms race that will boost defense spending. 3/

But there are big caveats. The nature of the AI shock should temper this optimism for five primary reasons. One, longer lifespans may mean more entitlement spending. Two, a higher neutral interest rate may mean more deficit servicing costs. 2/

Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

New research from me, @neilmehrotra.bsky.social, and William Overcash scoping the potential for AI to shrink long-run fiscal deficits. The optimistic view is that a once-in-a-generation productivity shock could lower annual deficits by ~5% points of GDP—enough to cut primary deficits towards 0. 1/

Line chart titled “Total Deficits as a Percentage of GDP” showing five projections from 2025 to 2036. The y-axis ranges from about 1% to 8% of GDP, and the x-axis shows years. The baseline (black line) rises gradually from about 5.7% in 2025 to around 6.6% by 2036, with a peak near 6.5% in the early 2030s. Traditional productivity (blue dashed line with squares) declines steadily from about 5.7% to roughly 1.6% by 2036. Labor market (red dashed line with triangles) trends downward from about 5.7% to around 4.0%. Health and mortality (green dashed line with diamonds) stays near 5.5–5.9% early on, then declines modestly to about 4.6% by 2036. Combined disruption (purple dashed line with squares) follows a similar downward path, falling from roughly 5.7–5.9% to about 4.0% by the end of the period.

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As the US grapples with rising oil prices amid its conflict with Iran, it’s important to keep all options open. I spoke with @nytimes.com about how this moment differs from the situation four years ago with Russia. Read here: nytimes.com/2026/03/19/us/politics/iran-oil-sanctions.html

nytimes.com

U.S. Encourages Flow of Iranian Oil While It Battles Iran

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Americans continue to face uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s ruling against the use of IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs. I recently joined @vox.com Today, Explained to discuss the evolving tariff landscape and what to expect going forward: open.spotify.com/episode/0S72yebCkVoWSz63M8LA92

open.spotify.com

A toymaker who got tariffed

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Targeting Russia’s shadow fleet is crucial to weakening its economy and ending its assault on Ukraine. @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I explain why in our recent op-ed in @kyivindependent.com. Our full analysis with Harold Koh here: www.brookings.edu/articles/sti...

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Great to visit CAP to debate solutions to the affordability crisis. @tarasinc.bsky.social and I argued against price controls, while finding common ground with @bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social on the need for real action to make life more affordable. Watch:

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

It was a pleasure joining NPR’s @wamu.org 1A with the incomparable @richardrubindc.bsky.social to discuss how funding and personnel cuts in the first year of Trump’s second term have destabilized the IRS, reducing federal revenue and economic efficiency. Listen here: tinyurl.com/42rjmeye

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM

Figure showing the in-migration, out-migration, and net immigration in the United States from 2020 to the present with projections for 2025 and 2026. Net immigration peaks in 2023 followed by a downturn, potentially reaching negatives in 2025 and 2026.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

It was great to share a beer with Emily Gross on her show @beerocracy.bsky.social. We talked about the K-shaped economy, the affordability crisis, and much more. Watch our conversation here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT6i...

youtube.com

The Truth About The U.S. Economy

YouTube video by Beerocracy! with Emily Gross

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

Federal economic statistics are critical to understanding America’s economy. But after an unprecedented shutdown, data releases are delayed—or never collected. I joined NPR's @wamu.org 1A to explain what that means for U.S workers and businesses. the1a.org/segments/wha...

the1a.org

What the US economy looks like ahead of 2026

It's roughly made up of $30 trillion worth of goods, services, and economic activity.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

ICYMI, I recently discussed the future of Trump’s tariffs on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," arguing that the tariff pause reflected the power of the bond market as a referee on policy. Watch here: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

bloomberg.com

Bloomberg: The China Show 04/11/2025

“Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Annabelle Droulers and David Ingles give...

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

In a new piece, @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I document the origins of Russia’s shadow fleet. Tracking the ownership history of 75 sanctioned ships, we find that nearly 60% of them previously had European owners. Read it here:

Where did Russia’s shadow fleet come from?

Most of Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers comes from Western companies. This gives Europe leverage, Robin Brooks and Ben Harris explain.

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Alternatively, in our most optimistic scenario, in which AI reduces mortality while also lowering the costs and demand for healthcare, annual deficits fall by 0.8% of GDP in 2044, or about $500 billion per year.

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If AI technology leads to a larger old-age population without substantially improving healthcare prices and efficiency, it could increase annual deficits. Our most pessimistic scenario puts 2044 deficits around 1.6% of GDP larger relative to the baseline—about $1 trillion.

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And of course, longer lifespans mean more people drawing from SS and Medicare. For example, if AI reduces mortality by 3% (as opposed to 0.74% in the baseline), the old-age population will rise from 73.2 million to 82.4 million in 2044.

A key takeaway is that this technological shock could be different from the internet boom—which boosted productivity and incomes—because AI could also lead to much longer lifespans.

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Given the uncertainty around AI, we simulate four scenarios with varying effects of AI on mortality, population, the price of health care, and health care utilization.

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Today, Brookings released a report I wrote with Neil Mehrotra and Eric So modeling the impact of AI on old-age entitlement expenditures like Medicare and Social Security. Read it here: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

Benjamin H. Harris, Neil Mehrotra, and Eric So simulate the impact of AI on old-age entitlement spending via health care channels.

The fiscal frontier

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

Check out today's @nytimes op-ed by @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and me arguing that the Trump Administration's reckless approach to fiscal policy raises the risk of a fiscal and financial crisis:

nytimes.com

Opinion | How Trump Could Get Us Into a Debt Crisis

A blowup will be sparked not by government spending but from political malpractice.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Also, check out this Q&A which touches on the main results of our paper:

What are the risks of a rising federal debt?

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

US Debt is ~100% of GDP, and the debt limit is getting closer. Congress is now marking-up a budget that will take on trillions in new debt. What are the true costs of debt? And should we worry about a fiscal crisis? Read my new paper with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and Louise Sheiner here:

Assessing the risks and costs of the rising US federal debt

While imminent fiscal crisis is unlikely, the large and growing federal debt presents a number of long-term risks.

Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

In a new blog, Robin Brooks and I show that January 10th sanctions on 183 Russian tankers cover a massive 75 percent of oil exports from Russia’s Pacific ports. Despite targeting substantially more ships than all previous Russia sanctions combined, oil prices have barely risen.