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Neil Mehrotra

@neilmehrotra.bsky.social
1.4K followers 79 following 99 posts

Macroeconomist. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics at US Treasury. Views are my own.

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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Great epistemic practice here: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/u...
nytimes.com
The D.N.C. Is Scrapping Its Report on What Went Wrong in 2024
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 18/12/2025
A number of people have asked me about this and I fully agree with Omari Sharif (@fcastofthemonth) who is the absolute dean of CPI analysis. Actual rents appear to have slowed in Oct/Nov, but not unrealistically so - about the same rate they hit in Sept. But OER (more on that to follow) plunged.
Chart showing actual MoM annualized rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rents Jan '24 - Sep '25.

Also shown are two scenarios for Oct/Nov for each series. In one scenario, both series are assumed to have risen at the same pace in each month, or Nov / Sept index levels to the power of 6 (in % terms). 

In the second, we assume both indices are 0% in October and all change was in November.  The result makes November actual rent surge unrealistically, but not November. 

The implication is that BLS assumed 0% OER for October.
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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events. But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
I really don't think this is the right takeaway. Solar is great but electricity that is available only at certain times and only under certain conditions is not a great substitute for dispatchable power. It would benefit clean energy advocates to give more thought to how to produce clean firm power.
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Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped . www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
brookings.edu
How much is climate change costing US households? | Brookings
Studies of the economic impacts of climate change often look at long-term, national costs. A new BPEA study takes a different approach, focusing on the current household level costs attributable to ch...
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Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu. We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income. www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
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Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Thanks to @kclausing.bsky.social for the great thread on our BPEA paper with @knittelmit.bsky.social! Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
1/8: Quick thread on a new short paper with Mike Waugh in the latest edition of the Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review:
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
Imho too much discussion on here about whether the labor market is weak or not given slowdown in labor supply. Too little discussion of how to proceed with downside risks to both sides of the mandate.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 26/08/2025
The implication is that the rest of the Board is accepting her firing, and that she has been removed. Not good. The better strategy would be to continue work as normal and make Trump get an order removing her.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
TFW no one talked to a macroeconomists at any point from working paper to publication: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
washingtonpost.com
This climate study made a big error. One piece of data was to blame.
Uzbekistan’s erroneous data dramatically changed the results of a study on global climate damages.
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Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 28/06/2025
This is exactly right. Anyone voting for the spending bill is voting for higher energy bills and blackouts.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
A sad capitulation from the Timberpuppies. Sigh.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 16/05/2025
Federal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several years www.ft.com/content/927ba69e-3037-4e…
ft.com
Federal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several years
Chief Jay Powell says US central bank is seeking to ensure it is a ‘responsible steward of public resources’
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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Initial claims come in slightly above prior non-recessionary years, both in headcount (1st) & share-of-emp (2nd) terms. Initial claims are ~19K above where they were same week in 2019. Not a catastrophe but it's notable. Continuing claims slightly above recent years too (3rd).
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Steve Liesman @steveliesman.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China. 1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy 2nd: Backs China into a corner. 3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding 4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar 5th: no end game, no plan
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Greg Gutfield unimpressed by Ernie and company fancy math cc @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Unchanged jobless claims in the face of multiple standard deviation uncertainty shocks is fairly impressive.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
This is wrong - only Chetty is supposed to have access to all these data sets.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Maybe there's an innocuous explanation, but we might be seeing the consequences of squandering our exorbitant privilege in the first 100 days:
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Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Every day we learn anew just how much classified ads were perhaps the load-bearing pillar of American hegemony
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
😬
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Strong Tower of Juche energy today: www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Well it was a good run.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
It would really be good if blue states and universities stepped into the breach - replacing the funding the NSF and NIH is not a heavy lift fiscally.
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Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Just an incredibly ugly ISM Manufacturing report. The only categories that are rising relate to prices and inventories. Everything else going down. And virtually all of the comments are from manufacturers complaining about the tariffs. Full newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Pretty impressive combination of increased generation and reduced emissions in EU power generation:
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
www.hipmuseum.com/GS1.jpg
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/03/2025
I want to say something precise: I have never seen evidence of any kind that CEOs in general are anything other than replacement level thinkers, and significant evidence that the typical CEO is way below replacement level. That doesn't mean they *all* are, but hoooooo boy is it a skinny right tail.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
This may come to pass, but this is not what you should conclude from the Atlanta Fed nowcast or the data we've currently seen:
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Economy is definitely softening, but this estimate is driven entirely by the huge decrease in trade balance from trying to avoid tariffs. Net exports subtracting 3.7 percentage points from GDP growth:
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Michael Smith @msmith750.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
In a feat of impeccable timing, the wonderful editors at the Lewis & Clark Law Review have finished their work on my article, "Is Originalism Bullshit?" The final version is now online at SSRN: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Budget neutrality over a 10-year window does not imply non-inflationary/non-stimulative. I think @jasonfurman.bsky.social (and @mattyglesias.bsky.social, etc.) point was that these policies added further demand to an economy characterized by excess demand. x.com/BrianCDeese/...
x.com
x.com
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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Today, Brookings released a report I wrote with Neil Mehrotra and Eric So modeling the impact of AI on old-age entitlement expenditures like Medicare and Social Security. Read it here: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
brookings.edu
The fiscal frontier
Benjamin H. Harris, Neil Mehrotra, and Eric So simulate the impact of AI on old-age entitlement spending via health care channels.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Always here for some weedsy discussion of price indices:
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Nothing that we have seen so far would imply macroeconomic effects anywhere close to this magnitude:
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Agree with Martha's take here:
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
A cogent but largely critical retrospective from @jasonfurman on the Biden economic legacy (1/8):
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
There's a lot of uncertainty, but if cuts of the magnitude suggested here materialize at NIH, NSF, and for other government funding research, blue states ought to consider banding together and stepping into the breach (1/5): wapo.st/3Q9DrIH
wapo.st
NIH cuts billions of dollars in biomedical funding, effective immediately
The move halts a large slice of money for most universities and research institutions virtually overnight, imperiling vital research in everything from cancer to heart disease.
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Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
(1/3) Some Early Lessons from the Trade War of February 1-3, aka the Groundhog Day trade war #1 The good news. The US govt decided *not* to levy the largest tax increase in a generation, which would have been very distortionary, hurting production, employment, and growth across North America.
piie.com
Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would cost the typical US household over $1,200 a year
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/02/2025
Alix Partners estimates on new tariff impact for the auto sector specifically - 1/4 of US vehicles face the full tariff directly - Impacted parts & components ~$225bn per year - $60bn in incremental costs industry-wide - $3k per vehicle price impact - Mexican-sourced parts carry 2-10% margins
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Trump's latest tariffs would represent “the largest tax increase since the 1990s," per @kclausing.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/3cc2...
ft.com
Trump faces backlash from business as tariffs ignite inflation fears
Experts warn aggressive trade measures against US allies will hurt consumers and roil supply chains
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Hard to know the ultimate scope, but the executive orders that appear to pause even obligated spending could exert a meaningful labor market drag in coming months.
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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Happy Valentine's, everyone! buff.ly/4jzqYvi
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Big, if true
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Citizen Cohn / Jonathan Cohn @citizencohn.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Important story here from my colleague @alexckaufman.bsky.social It's about how Trump's policy directives are killing wind energy projects, but also about how the Democrats' failure to fix permitting was undermining these projects even beforehand www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...
huffpost.com
Trump Just Dealt The Final Blow To Hundreds Of Factory Jobs
Donald Trump’s anti-wind orders dealt the final blow, but Joe Biden’s permitting reform failure started the death spiral.
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Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
So much winning: www.wbur.org/news/2025/01...
wbur.org
Prysmian abandons plans for offshore wind cable factory in Somerset
The proposed offshore wind cable factory would have created between 200 and 350 manufacturing jobs at the site of an old coal fired power plant in Somerset’s Brayton Point neighborhood.
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Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
NEW: Trump’s anti-wind order does *not* just apply to offshore wind. That’s because all wind projects need federal permits, even if they’re not on federal property. Lobbyists believe that Trump’s order could hit “more than half” of wind farms now under development. heatmap.news/plus/the-fig...
heatmap.news
Trump’s Wind Order Could Hit ‘More Than Half’ of New Projects
The American wind industry faces a potentially existential threat.
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