Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 18/12/2025Great epistemic practice here: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/u...nytimes.comThe D.N.C. Is Scrapping Its Report on What Went Wrong in 2024 010
Reposted by Neil MehrotraGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 18/12/2025A number of people have asked me about this and I fully agree with Omari Sharif (@fcastofthemonth) who is the absolute dean of CPI analysis. Actual rents appear to have slowed in Oct/Nov, but not unrealistically so - about the same rate they hit in Sept. But OER (more on that to follow) plunged. 1183
Reposted by Neil MehrotraGuy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 07/11/20255 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events. But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones... 1175
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 06/11/2025I really don't think this is the right takeaway. Solar is great but electricity that is available only at certain times and only under certain conditions is not a great substitute for dispatchable power. It would benefit clean energy advocates to give more thought to how to produce clean firm power. 100
Reposted by Neil MehrotraKimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 23/10/2025The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped . www.brookings.edu/articles/how...brookings.eduHow much is climate change costing US households? | BrookingsStudies of the economic impacts of climate change often look at long-term, national costs. A new BPEA study takes a different approach, focusing on the current household level costs attributable to ch... 0115
Reposted by Neil MehrotraKimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 25/09/2025🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu. We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income. www.brookings.edu/articles/who... 48933
Reposted by Neil MehrotraCatherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 25/09/2025Thanks to @kclausing.bsky.social for the great thread on our BPEA paper with @knittelmit.bsky.social! Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat. 071
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 05/09/20251/8: Quick thread on a new short paper with Mike Waugh in the latest edition of the Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review: 141
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 05/09/2025Imho too much discussion on here about whether the labor market is weak or not given slowdown in labor supply. Too little discussion of how to proceed with downside risks to both sides of the mandate. 060
Reposted by Neil MehrotraGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 26/08/2025The implication is that the rest of the Board is accepting her firing, and that she has been removed. Not good. The better strategy would be to continue work as normal and make Trump get an order removing her. 1121325
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 07/08/2025TFW no one talked to a macroeconomists at any point from working paper to publication: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...washingtonpost.comThis climate study made a big error. One piece of data was to blame.Uzbekistan’s erroneous data dramatically changed the results of a study on global climate damages. 010
Reposted by Neil MehrotraCosta Samaras @costasamaras.com · 28/06/2025This is exactly right. Anyone voting for the spending bill is voting for higher energy bills and blackouts. 391275377
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 29/05/2025A sad capitulation from the Timberpuppies. Sigh. 100
Reposted by Neil MehrotraFinancial Times @financialtimes.com · 16/05/2025Federal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several years www.ft.com/content/927ba69e-3037-4e…ft.comFederal Reserve to slash staff by 10% over several yearsChief Jay Powell says US central bank is seeking to ensure it is a ‘responsible steward of public resources’ 2224
Reposted by Neil MehrotraErnie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 01/05/2025Initial claims come in slightly above prior non-recessionary years, both in headcount (1st) & share-of-emp (2nd) terms. Initial claims are ~19K above where they were same week in 2019. Not a catastrophe but it's notable. Continuing claims slightly above recent years too (3rd). 25112
Reposted by Neil MehrotraSteve Liesman @steveliesman.bsky.social · 24/04/2025Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China. 1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy 2nd: Backs China into a corner. 3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding 4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar 5th: no end game, no plan 50680123
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Greg Gutfield unimpressed by Ernie and company fancy math cc @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social 041
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Unchanged jobless claims in the face of multiple standard deviation uncertainty shocks is fairly impressive. 120
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 09/04/2025This is wrong - only Chetty is supposed to have access to all these data sets. 182
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 09/04/2025Maybe there's an innocuous explanation, but we might be seeing the consequences of squandering our exorbitant privilege in the first 100 days: 1253
Reposted by Neil MehrotraRobinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Every day we learn anew just how much classified ads were perhaps the load-bearing pillar of American hegemony 322145363
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Strong Tower of Juche energy today: www.google.com/url?sa=i&url... 000
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 02/04/2025It would really be good if blue states and universities stepped into the breach - replacing the funding the NSF and NIH is not a heavy lift fiscally. 140
Reposted by Neil MehrotraJoe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 01/04/2025Just an incredibly ugly ISM Manufacturing report. The only categories that are rising relate to prices and inventories. Everything else going down. And virtually all of the comments are from manufacturers complaining about the tariffs. Full newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet... 38559183
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 31/03/2025Pretty impressive combination of increased generation and reduced emissions in EU power generation: 011
Reposted by Neil MehrotraGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 01/03/2025I want to say something precise: I have never seen evidence of any kind that CEOs in general are anything other than replacement level thinkers, and significant evidence that the typical CEO is way below replacement level. That doesn't mean they *all* are, but hoooooo boy is it a skinny right tail. 2059875
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 28/02/2025This may come to pass, but this is not what you should conclude from the Atlanta Fed nowcast or the data we've currently seen: 100
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Economy is definitely softening, but this estimate is driven entirely by the huge decrease in trade balance from trying to avoid tariffs. Net exports subtracting 3.7 percentage points from GDP growth: 021
Reposted by Neil MehrotraMichael Smith @msmith750.bsky.social · 20/02/2025In a feat of impeccable timing, the wonderful editors at the Lewis & Clark Law Review have finished their work on my article, "Is Originalism Bullshit?" The final version is now online at SSRN: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 25789161
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 21/02/2025Budget neutrality over a 10-year window does not imply non-inflationary/non-stimulative. I think @jasonfurman.bsky.social (and @mattyglesias.bsky.social, etc.) point was that these policies added further demand to an economy characterized by excess demand. x.com/BrianCDeese/...x.comx.com 110
Reposted by Neil MehrotraBen Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 20/02/2025Today, Brookings released a report I wrote with Neil Mehrotra and Eric So modeling the impact of AI on old-age entitlement expenditures like Medicare and Social Security. Read it here: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...brookings.eduThe fiscal frontierBenjamin H. Harris, Neil Mehrotra, and Eric So simulate the impact of AI on old-age entitlement spending via health care channels. 271
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Always here for some weedsy discussion of price indices: 130
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Nothing that we have seen so far would imply macroeconomic effects anywhere close to this magnitude: 1468
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 11/02/2025A cogent but largely critical retrospective from @jasonfurman on the Biden economic legacy (1/8): 382
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 08/02/2025There's a lot of uncertainty, but if cuts of the magnitude suggested here materialize at NIH, NSF, and for other government funding research, blue states ought to consider banding together and stepping into the breach (1/5): wapo.st/3Q9DrIHwapo.stNIH cuts billions of dollars in biomedical funding, effective immediatelyThe move halts a large slice of money for most universities and research institutions virtually overnight, imperiling vital research in everything from cancer to heart disease. 23110
Reposted by Neil MehrotraKimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 04/02/2025(1/3) Some Early Lessons from the Trade War of February 1-3, aka the Groundhog Day trade war #1 The good news. The US govt decided *not* to levy the largest tax increase in a generation, which would have been very distortionary, hurting production, employment, and growth across North America.piie.comTrump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would cost the typical US household over $1,200 a yearThe Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. 112038
Reposted by Neil MehrotraGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 02/02/2025Alix Partners estimates on new tariff impact for the auto sector specifically - 1/4 of US vehicles face the full tariff directly - Impacted parts & components ~$225bn per year - $60bn in incremental costs industry-wide - $3k per vehicle price impact - Mexican-sourced parts carry 2-10% margins 816753
Reposted by Neil MehrotraCatherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 02/02/2025Trump's latest tariffs would represent “the largest tax increase since the 1990s," per @kclausing.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/3cc2...ft.comTrump faces backlash from business as tariffs ignite inflation fearsExperts warn aggressive trade measures against US allies will hurt consumers and roil supply chains 26561160
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 28/01/2025Hard to know the ultimate scope, but the executive orders that appear to pause even obligated spending could exert a meaningful labor market drag in coming months. 240
Reposted by Neil MehrotraScott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 26/01/2025Happy Valentine's, everyone! buff.ly/4jzqYvi 38925
Reposted by Neil MehrotraCitizen Cohn / Jonathan Cohn @citizencohn.bsky.social · 24/01/2025Important story here from my colleague @alexckaufman.bsky.social It's about how Trump's policy directives are killing wind energy projects, but also about how the Democrats' failure to fix permitting was undermining these projects even beforehand www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...huffpost.comTrump Just Dealt The Final Blow To Hundreds Of Factory JobsDonald Trump’s anti-wind orders dealt the final blow, but Joe Biden’s permitting reform failure started the death spiral. 23422
Neil Mehrotra @neilmehrotra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025So much winning: www.wbur.org/news/2025/01...wbur.orgPrysmian abandons plans for offshore wind cable factory in SomersetThe proposed offshore wind cable factory would have created between 200 and 350 manufacturing jobs at the site of an old coal fired power plant in Somerset’s Brayton Point neighborhood. 000
Reposted by Neil MehrotraRobinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 23/01/2025NEW: Trump’s anti-wind order does *not* just apply to offshore wind. That’s because all wind projects need federal permits, even if they’re not on federal property. Lobbyists believe that Trump’s order could hit “more than half” of wind farms now under development. heatmap.news/plus/the-fig...heatmap.newsTrump’s Wind Order Could Hit ‘More Than Half’ of New ProjectsThe American wind industry faces a potentially existential threat. 18293137