iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I don’t get Warsh on oil. If oil prices rise, prices of oil-intensive goods should rise too. The Fed should look through that relative-price shift & accept resulting fall in real wages. If it tries to prevent the price adjustment, it has to weaken demand. Warsh seems to want one without the other.

020

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Just said on @cnbc.com I think Fed *should* hike at next meeting. That's for a few reasons, including maintaining Fed credibility. What I didn't say was: I don't think Fed *will* hike at the next meeting. (Also said strong Aug emp growth looks out of sync with other labor market indicators.)

170

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

If the employment story in payroll survey is the right one, where are all these workers coming from? And, I don't see evidence of a much stronger labor market than last in year in other indicators: wages, the quit rate, participation, the work work...All in all, the HH survey makes more sense to me.

141

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Puzzle continues: Payroll Survey & Household Survey show different labor markets. Payroll: emp growth has soared since last year. HH: emp is *down* (changes in population controls complicate comparisons to 2025). Strong emp didn't lower UR; it fell because emp shrank by less than labor force did.

130

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Core goods prices are up 1.1% from last May. Maybe that doesn't sound big - and it isn't compared to COVID days - but these are prices that *fall* frequently in normal times. Tariffs aren't done pushing up goods prices. And now energy prices are making manufacturing and delivery more expensive.

093

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Emp growth is much stronger in payroll survey than household survey. Emp since Jan has *fallen* in HH survey. Sure, surveys can move apart, like when HH survey didn't reflect immigration surge. But, the sharp increase in gap is hard to understand. Since 1994, only 4 yrs had bigger widening Jan-May.

060

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

I’ve pondered how (not if) Trump will impose his will on the Fed if Warsh doesn’t want to or can’t cut rates. Maybe part of Trump’s plan is to keep the reno investigation & broaden beyond Powell just to keep DoJ folks hanging around with the threat of criminal charges against someone at the Fed?

141

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

I think the most important number from the BEA this morning was goods inflation. Excluding gasoline, goods prices rose 0.7% from January to February. That is a very large price increase for a category that in normal times is often negative. Tariffs are nowhere near done pushing up prices.

072

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

BLS incorporated new population composition resulting in lower LFPR & EPOP. Employment gains averaged 5k a month over last 3 months even as UR remained low & stable, remarkably consistent with breakevens from co-authors & me. tinyurl.com/3mzddwhx PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.

140

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

Perhaps the occasion of this jobs report is a good time to reup my NYT op-ed: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like

052

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

I am confused by the argument AI means the Fed should cut rates. But, I guess the idea is AI will mean a whole lot of underused resources (eg labor) so the Fed will need to stimulate demand to convince employers to hire & invest. That’s a depressing world. And rate cuts won’t work in the long run.

161

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Join us in a few minutes for what I know will be an incredible event on supply-side factors and inflation: www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.

brookings.edu

Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? | Brookings

On February 6, Brookings will convene an event to examine the relationship between supply-side factors and inflation.

120

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

I'll be talking with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 12 noon ET at this @brookings.edu event today. Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? www.brookings.edu/events/suppl.... In-person (registration required) & livestreamed.

brookings.edu

Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? | Brookings

On February 6, Brookings will convene an event to examine the relationship between supply-side factors and inflation.

054

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Let’s stop with the breathlessness about bond yields. Bond markets looked at events over the weekend and said: We demand an additional 5 basis points! The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.

171

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Eduardo Porter @eduardoelreportero.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Check out the great panel on immigration policy at @brookings.edu. Moderated by @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, with @davidjbier.bsky.social, @wendyedelberg.bsky.social, @kdpindc.bsky.social and yours truly. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf9T... (After the convo with Rep. Salazar.)

youtube.com

Assessing US immigration policy in the second Trump administration

YouTube video by Brookings Institution

001

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM

Figure showing the in-migration, out-migration, and net immigration in the United States from 2020 to the present with projections for 2025 and 2026. Net immigration peaks in 2023 followed by a downturn, potentially reaching negatives in 2025 and 2026.

052

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**. Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

02517

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Stan Veuger @stanveuger.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

I have a new report out with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.

24217

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Average payroll growth of 14.5k over the last 6 months and yet an unemployment rate that is barely moving and now at 4.4%, suggesting we are in the ballpark of full employment. How can that be? Immigration. Read my nytimes op-ed. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like

062

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Larry Culpepper, Esq. @idogcapital.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Really enjoyed hearing Wendy Edelberg on Marketplace today talking about immigration and its effects on the labor market and economy of today. About time we talk about this more publicly. @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org

121

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

Really enjoyed this conversation with @jc-econ.bsky.social and Seth Carpenter. Thanks to @wendyedelberg.bsky.social for expert moderation and @brookings.edu for hosting! The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.

053

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Brookings had a super event on supply side factors & inflation. Great insights from @jc-econ.bsky.social, Seth Carpenter & Catherine Wolfram! www.brookings.edu/events/the-s... Check out my paper: a taxonomy of related literature - how 88 papers describe supply shocks & their effects on inflation.

brookings.edu

The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook | Brookings

181

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

NYT op-ed from me: Low job gains & low unemployment are causing cognitive dissonance. The cause: immigration policy. If Trump stays the course, job gains may well go lower. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o... But, maybe he acts irresponsibly to get bigger numbers no matter the effect on inflation etc...

nytimes.com

Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like

0135

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

...as part of this event @wendyedelberg.bsky.social reviewed an extensive literature & created a practical & useful taxonomy for thinking about types of supply shock and transmission channels on inflation. Highly recommend! www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...

brookings.edu

A taxonomy of supply shocks and their effects on inflation | Brookings

064

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

New York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 23/11/2025

“We’re conditioned to think that job growth of 40,000 a month is a terrible omen for our economy,” Wendy Edelberg writes. “But if Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies continue, it might simply be what the sustainable pace of new employment looks like.”

nyti.ms

Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like

Making America less hospitable to newcomers will eventually make our country poorer.

084

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Voice4Justice @voices4justice.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

‘Were Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like’ Bypass paywall 🔗 archive.md/2025.11.23-1... @wendyedelberg.bsky.social

0103

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Trump won’t pay SNAP benefits because the US Treasury has to “remain liquid.” What? What? What?

2131

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Upcoming virtual event at Brookings on supply-side shocks and inflation: www.brookings.edu/events/the-s... Click the link to register. The conversation will be great, and you will leave with a broad understanding of how supply shocks matter for inflation. (Shocks are not all created equal!)

brookings.edu

The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook | Brookings

010

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Does subdued complaining re shutdown mean fed gov't isn't valued? No: 75% of workforce is still providing fed services. Complaints will increase when military (like other fed workers) misses paychecks, SNAP benefits aren't paid & shutdown of FHA, SBA, IRS, etc services becomes a serious bottleneck.

020

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5

172

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

next year isn't going to be fun

151

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

The decline in work permit applications among immigrants is stunning. @hamiltonproject.org is tracking this on the regular: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin... My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.

2195

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??

410519

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

410519

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

In late 2024, many worried that Trump’s immigration policy would mean massive labor shortages & wage (& thus price) inflation. That would have meant output was above potential & the Fed would need restrictive policy. 1/4

120

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

If Trump wins SCOTUS case, he could claim cause to fire a Fed gov & gov couldn't serve while courts decide if there's really cause. (Cook's suit on that still open.) Yes, big deal. But even if he loses this, new reality for Fed officials unchanged: Trump will come after them with everything he has.

061

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news: @taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table. www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

0268

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

So, UI data will likely lead to downward revision of 0.9m to March 2025 employment level. In spirit of "maybe other data already reflected in policy pointed to a big revision": 3/25 emp (in CES) is running 1.6m higher than what household survey suggests. This revision would close much of that gap.

040

Reposted by Wendy Edelberg

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...

nytimes.com

How Immigration Could Muddy the Jobs Numbers

0528

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Many worried Trump’s immigration policy meant labor shortages & wage inflation, w/ presumably much lower UR. Co-authors & I argued ⬇️ immigration also ⬇️ spending & labor demand. Add tariff policy effects ➡️ labor demand & supply are about in balance. This labor mkt likely can’t manage much more demand

3122

Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

My posts have been too wonky so I‘ll say it plainly: This jobs report is healthy. It doesn’t mean a “worrying slowdown” or a recession. Despite the cognitive dissonance, a low UR/low job growth world will be our version of a healthy labor market for years to come under current immigration policy.

1101