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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Expectations over AI’s potential impact on the fiscal outlook should be tempered. I joined Bloomberg’s Balance of Power to discuss this, in addition to concerns about proposals for government ownership stakes in AI companies and what the latest jobs report may be telling us about the economy. Here:

bloomberg.com

Watch Harris: 'Deeply Uncomfortable' With US Taking OpenAI Stake - Bloomberg

Ben Harris, Vice President and Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, says Washington should "temper the optimism" that AI can solve the federal deficit, warning any productivity g...

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

New research from me, @neilmehrotra.bsky.social, and William Overcash scoping the potential for AI to shrink long-run fiscal deficits. The optimistic view is that a once-in-a-generation productivity shock could lower annual deficits by ~5% points of GDP—enough to cut primary deficits towards 0. 1/

Line chart titled “Total Deficits as a Percentage of GDP” showing five projections from 2025 to 2036. The y-axis ranges from about 1% to 8% of GDP, and the x-axis shows years. The baseline (black line) rises gradually from about 5.7% in 2025 to around 6.6% by 2036, with a peak near 6.5% in the early 2030s. Traditional productivity (blue dashed line with squares) declines steadily from about 5.7% to roughly 1.6% by 2036. Labor market (red dashed line with triangles) trends downward from about 5.7% to around 4.0%. Health and mortality (green dashed line with diamonds) stays near 5.5–5.9% early on, then declines modestly to about 4.6% by 2036. Combined disruption (purple dashed line with squares) follows a similar downward path, falling from roughly 5.7–5.9% to about 4.0% by the end of the period.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

As the US grapples with rising oil prices amid its conflict with Iran, it’s important to keep all options open. I spoke with @nytimes.com about how this moment differs from the situation four years ago with Russia. Read here: nytimes.com/2026/03/19/us/politics/iran-oil-sanctions.html

nytimes.com

U.S. Encourages Flow of Iranian Oil While It Battles Iran

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Americans continue to face uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s ruling against the use of IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs. I recently joined @vox.com Today, Explained to discuss the evolving tariff landscape and what to expect going forward: open.spotify.com/episode/0S72yebCkVoWSz63M8LA92

open.spotify.com

A toymaker who got tariffed

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Targeting Russia’s shadow fleet is crucial to weakening its economy and ending its assault on Ukraine. @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I explain why in our recent op-ed in @kyivindependent.com. Our full analysis with Harold Koh here: www.brookings.edu/articles/sti...

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Great to visit CAP to debate solutions to the affordability crisis. @tarasinc.bsky.social and I argued against price controls, while finding common ground with @bharatramamurti.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social on the need for real action to make life more affordable. Watch:

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

It was a pleasure joining NPR’s @wamu.org 1A with the incomparable @richardrubindc.bsky.social to discuss how funding and personnel cuts in the first year of Trump’s second term have destabilized the IRS, reducing federal revenue and economic efficiency. Listen here: tinyurl.com/42rjmeye

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM

Figure showing the in-migration, out-migration, and net immigration in the United States from 2020 to the present with projections for 2025 and 2026. Net immigration peaks in 2023 followed by a downturn, potentially reaching negatives in 2025 and 2026.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

It was great to share a beer with Emily Gross on her show @beerocracy.bsky.social. We talked about the K-shaped economy, the affordability crisis, and much more. Watch our conversation here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT6i...

youtube.com

The Truth About The U.S. Economy

YouTube video by Beerocracy! with Emily Gross

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

Federal economic statistics are critical to understanding America’s economy. But after an unprecedented shutdown, data releases are delayed—or never collected. I joined NPR's @wamu.org 1A to explain what that means for U.S workers and businesses. the1a.org/segments/wha...

the1a.org

What the US economy looks like ahead of 2026

It's roughly made up of $30 trillion worth of goods, services, and economic activity.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

ICYMI, I recently discussed the future of Trump’s tariffs on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," arguing that the tariff pause reflected the power of the bond market as a referee on policy. Watch here: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

bloomberg.com

Bloomberg: The China Show 04/11/2025

“Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Annabelle Droulers and David Ingles give...

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

In a new piece, @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I document the origins of Russia’s shadow fleet. Tracking the ownership history of 75 sanctioned ships, we find that nearly 60% of them previously had European owners. Read it here:

brookings.edu

Where did Russia’s shadow fleet come from?

Most of Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers comes from Western companies. This gives Europe leverage, Robin Brooks and Ben Harris explain.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Today, Brookings released a report I wrote with Neil Mehrotra and Eric So modeling the impact of AI on old-age entitlement expenditures like Medicare and Social Security. Read it here: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

brookings.edu

The fiscal frontier

Benjamin H. Harris, Neil Mehrotra, and Eric So simulate the impact of AI on old-age entitlement spending via health care channels.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

Check out today's @nytimes op-ed by @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and me arguing that the Trump Administration's reckless approach to fiscal policy raises the risk of a fiscal and financial crisis:

nytimes.com

Opinion | How Trump Could Get Us Into a Debt Crisis

A blowup will be sparked not by government spending but from political malpractice.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

US Debt is ~100% of GDP, and the debt limit is getting closer. Congress is now marking-up a budget that will take on trillions in new debt. What are the true costs of debt? And should we worry about a fiscal crisis? Read my new paper with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and Louise Sheiner here:

brookings.edu

Assessing the risks and costs of the rising US federal debt

While imminent fiscal crisis is unlikely, the large and growing federal debt presents a number of long-term risks.

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Ben Harris @econharris.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

In a new blog, Robin Brooks and I show that January 10th sanctions on 183 Russian tankers cover a massive 75 percent of oil exports from Russia’s Pacific ports. Despite targeting substantially more ships than all previous Russia sanctions combined, oil prices have barely risen.

brookings.edu

More sanctions on Russian oil tankers

Robin Brooks and Ben Harris investigate the oil price effects of the United States' January 2025 sanctions on Russian oil tankers.

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