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Erin Dumbacher

@dumbacher.bsky.social
166 followers 352 following 41 posts

International security & technology | Views are just mine and are often about defense tech, nuclear weapons, space policy, NATO, and good design.

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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Beijing views "strategic stability" as a guarantee of non-interference, while Washington pays the phrase little mind. As Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet this week in Washington, the two leaders must move past dangerous ambiguity and define real red lines... 1/2
thebulletin.org
Trump and Xi agreed on "strategic stability." They now need to decide what it means
Beijing views "strategic stability" as a guarantee of non-interference, while Washington pays the phrase little mind. Ahead of their Washington summit, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping must move past dange...
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
U.S. combat operations against Iran have reinforced the Pentagon’s appreciation for its network of bases in Europe, the American envoy to NATO said.
stripes.com
DOD has growing awareness that assets in Europe offer US ‘a lot,’ ambassador says
U.S. combat operations against Iran have reinforced the Pentagon’s appreciation for its network of bases in Europe, the American envoy to NATO said.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
"US military has ‘on-orbit’ space weapons, Air Force Secretary reveals"
defenseone.com
US military has ‘on-orbit’ space weapons, Air Force Secretary reveals
Experts said the acknowledgment may lead to overt action by China, Russia.
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 26/08/2026
Instead of working to build a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal, the United States should focus on modernizing its existing nuclear and conventional capabilities, argues Erin Dumbacher.
foreignaffairs.com
America Doesn’t Need More Nuclear Weapons
Expanding the stockpile could weaken deterrence.
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Michael C. Horowitz @mchorowitz.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
🚨🚨🚨 New report alert on the future of defense! To rebuild deterrence and the arsenal quickly, the US needs to sprint to scale precise mass capabilities in particular, and enable the defense industrial base to deliver! @dumbacher.bsky.social @rushdoshi.bsky.social @cfr.org www.cfr.org/reports/out-...
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
At this instant in 1945 (8:15 AM August 6, local time), Little Boy—a 15-kiloton, uranium-fueled atomic bomb—destroyed Hiroshima, killing (per official US military estimates) ~70,000 men, women, and children, incl. 12 American POWs. Independent estimates later maintained ~140,000 people were killed.
A color photograph of a damaged Iras wristwatch with a leather band on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, its hands frozen at 8:15 AM.A photograph of a shadow of a person living in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, who was killed as they climbed the steps of the Sumitomo Bank building while using a cane, leaving behind only their shadow imprinted on the steps (because their body and cane momentarily blocked the light from the intense thermal flash, burning away everything on the steps that was not in shadow).A color photograph of a damaged and partially melted child’s tricycle on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum. On the morning of August 6, 1945, Shinichi Tetsutani, who was one month shy of turning four years old, was riding this tricycle, playing with his best friend, a girl named Kimi, 1,500 meters away from where the Little Boy atomic bomb exploded overhead. When found in the wreckage of his house, he was still grasping the red handlebar grip from his tricycle. Severely injured and burned all over his body, calling out, “Water, I want water,” he died that night. Shinichi’s father buried him in the backyard with his favorite toy, and his best friend Kimi, so he could ride it and play even after death. Forty years later, in 1985, Shinichi’s father, Nobuo, decided to rebury his son in the family’s gravesite. Unearthing the backyard grave with Kimi’s mother, Nobuo rediscovered the tricycle and donated it to the museum.
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 16/07/2026
A chronological list of the best nuclear Doomsday films, compiled by Bulletin senior fellow Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social, shows how the nuclear perspective unfolded from the earliest days of the atomic age to the present. See which 13 films made the cut on our site: buff.ly/CIxUEcs
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
More of my analysis for @cfr.org at www.cfr.org/articles/bet...
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
That means there is space to reaffirm the core belief, held since the 1960s and the NPT’s founding, that nuclear weapons should not be wielded again. This is the task before representatives meeting in New York to review the NPT for the eleventh time.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
3️⃣ Recommit to no use. The Iran war illustrates plainly that leaders should impose limits on nuclear proliferation and reduce risks of nuclear use. The war reaffirms that countries prefer to fight with conventional munitions and avoid nuclear warfighting.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
2️⃣ Adopt modern nuclear energy safeguards. Nuclear energy could look even more appealing in Asia and the Middle East given the energy security risks the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exposes.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
1️⃣ Military strikes are not decisive. Air wars alone cannot counter proliferation or eliminate a nuclear program. The Trump administration’s counter-proliferation-through-force approach could backfire.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Nuclear talks: Diplomats have gathered in New York to review the future of the global nonproliferation regime, while Washington and Tehran develop terms for potential future meetings. 🔦 Yet there are three lessons for nuclear security we can already see.
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Who can't help but wish that we sent more rockets into space and fewer missiles into the ground?
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
I would like to know where he got the phrase "nuclear dust."
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
I keep seeing this framing like Bremmer's. It is wrong. Instead: 1. Iran was developing an ICBM when Khamenei imposed a 2,000-km range limit. 3. The programs shifted to space launch. 4. Khamenei lifted the restriction in October 2025 after the June attacks. 5. Now he's dead, and here we are.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Preventive regime change war in the name of non-proliferation?
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Michael C. Horowitz @mchorowitz.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Want to understand more about the eye popping 1.5T Trump defense budget news? Check out me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, & @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org! www.cfr.org/expert-brief... #defense #natsec
cfr.org
Trump’s $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Should Not Come as a Surprise
In the context of global threats to the United States, a long overdue defense modernization bill, and the ambitions of Trump’s signature defense priorities, perhaps the budget request should have bee…
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/w...
nytimes.com
Xi’s Military Purges Show Unease About China’s Nuclear Forces
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Perry World House @perryworldhouse.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
"The Pentagon’s acquisition system is not built to meet a moment where rapid technological change in areas like AI is shifting the capabilities the U.S. should acquire," write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @dumbacher.bsky.social for @cfr.org: www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
cfr.org
Time to Accept Risk in Defense Acquisitions
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth launched enterprising Pentagon reforms that prioritize speed in acquiring new military capabilities, but this ambitious proposal is at risk of running into the …
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
If the president intends to signal strength [there are] solutions without the risk of radiological consequences, without offering an advantage to China’s expanding nuclear program, and without the risk of a new global race to test nuclear weapons. www.cfr.org/expert-brief...
cfr.org
Will Trump’s Nuclear Testing Order Prompt a Global Race?
President Donald Trump’s announcement of resuming nuclear testing has stirred questions about the type, such as live testing of warheads, and whether the United States has entered a new era of nuclea…
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
I spoke to the @nytimes.com about Trump's unclear comments about nuclear testing www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/u...
nytimes.com
Trump’s Test Threat Could Fuel Nuclear Tensions With China
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Seems like a good time to re-read this. China and Russia would benefit from a restart of testing, more than the U.S.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Or he means testing a nuclear capable system like Russia did rather than a warhead?
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
And if you did want to restart testing, which Trump appointees testified at confirmation isn’t necessary, it would be difficult with the labs running low on funds given shutdown. Perhaps the implication is more about a nuclear system than a warhead test?
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations) -The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job. -The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
The B-1 bombers are returning after more than 14 hours in the air and an in-your-face mission to just outside Venezuelan airspace, along the coast, and back.
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Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
“A House of Dynamite” is all too plausible. I’m a nuke expert - and it scared the heck out of me. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
theatlantic.com
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
✋🏻 Would also like to discuss!
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
I was able to see an early screening of "A House of Dynamite." Americans need to see this movie and remember why nuclear attack is vastly more terrifying than any other threat to our existence. www.netflix.com/title/81744537
netflix.com
Watch A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE | Netflix Official Site
When a single, unattributed missile is launched at the United States, a race begins to determine who is responsible and how to respond.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
www.cfr.org/article/russ...
cfr.org
Russia Tests NATO With Poland Drone Breach
Russia’s drone incursion into Poland marks a potential dangerous escalation in the Ukraine war that could challenge NATO’s unity and defenses.
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Reposted by Erin Dumbacher
Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”
ft.com
What is Vladimir Putin’s game plan against Nato’s eastern flank?
Drone incursions into Polish airspace lay bare how unprepared military alliance is against surprise Russian attacks
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Kori Schake 🎃 @kschake.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.
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Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Worst incident in a while.
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Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Pretty essential read blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/06/09/w...
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
What journalists should know about the atomic bombings
As we approach the 75th anniversary of the atomic bombings, we're going to see a lot of journalistic takes on them — many of them totally wrong.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Really anywhere that “black box” challenges and the fragility inherent to all AI could not be overcome or could have catastrophic consequences should be off-limits. AI in the US military and at DoD should make Americans more safe, not less. www.cfr.org/article/oppo... (3/3)
cfr.org
The Opportunities and Risks Inherent to Trump's AI Action Plan
The Trump administration released its AI action plan on July 23 to coincide with its ‘Winning the AI Race’ summit in Washington. CFR convened seven of its experts to examine the plan and detail the o…
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
If DoD is "aggressively" promoting AI implementation there should be some areas that are just off-limits. Nuclear early warning and qualitative intelligence are two of them. (2/3)
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it. (1/3)
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Matthew Gault @mjgault.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before. What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?
Petrov didn’t know the machine was wrong. He guessed based on his experiences. His radar told him that the US had launched five missiles, but he knew an American attack would be all or nothing. Five was a small number. The computers were also new and had worked faster than he’d seen them perform before. He made a judgement call.

“Can we expect humans to be able to do that routinely? Is that a fair expectation?” Lin says. “The point is that you have to go outside your training data. You must go outside your training data to be able to say: ‘No, my training data is telling me something wrong.’ By definition, [AI] can’t do that.”
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
thehill.com/policy/inter...
thehill.com
Trump escalates nuclear tensions as Russia deadline nears
President Trump is rattling the U.S.’s formidable nuclear saber amid his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to halt the war in Ukraine, just days ahead of Tru…
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Trump: “The USA is fully prepared for a nuclear war with Russia.”
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Says He Ordered Subs Repositioned in Rare Nuclear Threat to Russia
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
A good roundup on the context. www.twz.com/sea/question...
twz.com
Questions Swirl Around Status Of Russian Nuclear Submarine Base After Historic Earthquake
The epicenter of a huge quake that sent tsunami waves out across the Pacific is just 75 miles from a cluster of strategic Russian naval facilities.
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
I'm optimistic US IC and commercial satellite firms are finding out what they can. Let's see what the images show and hope for no loss of life. (4/4)
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
So as waves meters high likely strike along the coast and at the base, nuclear security questions like: What are emergency protocols for subs in port and when were they last practiced/drilled? Any non-deployed warheads or material nearby and at how high of ground? Staff? Infrastructure? (3/4)
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Epicenter likely 65 nautical miles away from the submarine base, roughly. bsky.app/profile/vcdg... (2/4)
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Erin Dumbacher @dumbacher.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
You might hear #tsunami warning in the Pacific and think about Japanese nuclear power plants and their power backups. Yes, although lessons were learned from Fukushima. Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula. Thread (1/4) www.newsweek.com/russian-news...
newsweek.com
Russian nuclear submarines cross under Arctic ice near US coast
Russia transferred two nuclear-powered submarines from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 27/07/2025
So the total cost of boats 1-3 increased by 12.4% from FY25 to FY26. And that is unlikely to be the end of the cost growth. Which begs a significant question: How much headroom is left before a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and can the program stay under it? (4/4)
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