iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The IPCC hosted a workshop on Methods of Assessment earlier this year, looking at systemic reviews, use of artificial intelligence for knowledge synthesis, and ex-post evaluations. I had the pleasure of sharing the floor with Michal to give a talk about AI and the IPCC www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...

ipcc.ch

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026

As always, check out the Climate Dashboard for daily updates. It now includes more nerdy ENSO data including trade winds, southern oscillation index, and warm water volume tracking! dashboard.theclimate...

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Implications for AR7: the 2°C coverage sparser than the extremes in early production runs. The impacts community will inherit the final out of the ensemble. 6/6

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Overshoot map: Peak warming (x-axis) vs 2100 warming (y). Below the diagonal = overshoot magnitude. Grey bands: range covered only by Tier-3 scenarios. Red bands: gap between Low and Medium-to-Low. SSP2-Com sits inside the inner red gap on both axes. 5/6

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Overshoot: only Medium and High grow monotonically. Overshoot and return pattern dominates. That puts hysteresis, drawdown timing and irreversibility at the centre of AR7. 4/6

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The 2°C gap: marker peaks cluster at 1.68–1.86°C (three scenarios) and 2.27–3.42°C (four). The 1.9–2.2°C peak window has no marker and SSP2-Com from the MINES model fills the design gap, peaking ~2.0°C around 2070, declining to ~1.84°C [panel c] 3/6

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Priority: CMIP7 asks modelling centres to run High and Very Low first (Tier 1), then Medium and High-to-Low (Tier 2). Low, Medium-to-Low and Low-to-Negative come later. [panel b] 2/6

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

ScenarioMIP marker scenarios for CMIP7 are now public. Seven IAM pathways from ~1.4°C to ~3.4°C at 2100 [panel a] that will shape IPCC AR7 assessment 1/6

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National Academy of Sciences @nasonline.org · 02/09/2026

Small changes in the ocean can trigger global consequences. 🌊 The new summary from the 2026 US-UK Scientific Forum on ocean tipping points explores how researchers are working to understand, predict & respond to shifts in ocean systems. Read here: royalsociety.org/-/media/abou... @royalsociety.org

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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

For all the sturm and drang, opinions and POVs, this is numerically how fast CCS injections are growing in the world. Most of the volume is a few big projects @dralaaclimate.bsky.social @jack-cavanaugh.bsky.social imperialcollegelondon.github.io/The-London-R...

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The figure is stylised, rather than empirical

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

11/12 The capacity to respond, to cut emissions, finance adaptation & sustain removals, sits with those most responsible for the overshoot & least exposed to its legacies. The imperatives: rapid near-term cuts & sustaining the reductions & removals that bring temperatures down.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

10/12 Second, a governance gap: falling temperatures may be read as the crisis resolving precisely while permanent harm accumulates fastest, weakening political will for removals and Loss and Damage finance exactly when it is needed most.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

9/12 Two issues to reflect on. First, a feasibility feedback loop: the deeper the overshoot, the more it erodes the finance, institutions and land needed for the carbon removal that ends it.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

8/12 Which outcome a community faces is determined primarily by socioeconomic factors, not only biophysical ones.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

7/12 Socioeconomic legacy: nature recovers, people do not (livelihoods collapsed by repeated drought). This quadrant is the paper's central thesis. Existential loss: beyond all adaptation (small island states; communities dependent on vanished glaciers).

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

6/12 Crossing the layers yields four outcomes. Temporary adaptation challenge: stress endured, recovery follows (heat deaths cut by early-warning systems). Permanent adaptation challenge: nature permanently altered, but well-resourced systems reconfigure (managed retreat from rising seas).

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

5/12 Three mechanisms make loss permanent 1 Non-substitutability: some losses have no substitute. Lives, species, cultural heritage 2 Threshold-crossing: repeated shocks exhaust a community's coping resources 3 Lock-in: adapting to peak conditions creates barriers to reversal even when well designed

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

4/12 Our framework traces overshoot pathways' impacts through a three-layer cascade: the temperature path (how high, how long, how fast up & down), the biophysical response it triggers, & the socioeconomic outcome that follows. Reversibility at one layer does not guarantee it at the next.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

3/12 A community displaced by repeated drought does not return home because global temps fall. A farming household that sold its land after successive crop failures has no capital base to re-enter. Lives lost to heat extremes are not restored.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

2/12 The only remaining route back is an overshoot pathway: temperatures rise past the threshold, peak, then decline through sustained emissions cuts and carbon removal. That pathway carries a tempting assumption: when temperatures come back down, impacts reverse. They do not!

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12

"Three stacked panels sharing a time axis. Top: global temperature rises past 1.5°C, peaks, then declines (the overshoot pathway), with a flat permanent-exceedance line at the peak for comparison. Middle: biophysical responses to the same trajectory diverge; some track temperature down, some recover with a lag, one keeps intensifying. Bottom: socioeconomic impacts of the same biophysical change diverge by adaptive capacity; high-capacity systems recover, while one crosses a dashed adaptive-capacity threshold and never recovers: the permanent overshoot legacy.

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Kate Mackenzie @katemac.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

This might be one of the funniest chart about energy scenarios I’ve seen. You can hardly see “actual” for gas

Winners and Losers
The IEA overestimated gas growth in Asia and underestimated solar

Gas
• Forecast 547 TWh
• Actual 17 TWh

Solar
• Forecast 465 TWh
• Actual 1,333 TWh

Note: Shows expected growth in Asian power generation between 2018 and 2025, based on actual 2018 generation, actual 2025 generation, and the 2018 World Energy Outlook's Current Policies Scenario estimates for 2025. Actual 2025 generation figures are from Ember.
Source: International Energy Agency, Ember, Bloomberg Opinion calculations

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

@dralaaclimate.bsky.social is an expert in climate change economics and integrated assessment modeling at Imperial College London's Department of Chemical Engineering. He specializes in climate mitigation scenarios, AI for climate science, and has contributed significantly to IPCC reports.

A black and white close-up portrait of a man with dark, curly hair and glasses, smiling warmly at the camera. He wears thick-rimmed, square glasses, a patterned, grid-checked button-down shirt, and a tailored jacket. The background is a brightly lit, softly blurred indoor hallway.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Cool dashboard indeed!!! And to think I was planning to look into the data, plenty of time saved! Thanks Zeke

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Dr Iain Staffell @iain-staffell.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The UK’s AI race is all about electricity. 70% of data centre capacity lies within 20 miles of London. They block new homes being built because the grid can’t cope. We must look beyond - to places with clean power and strong grid access. Read in full: reports.electricinsights.co.uk

The UK’s data centres are heavily concentrated around London, unlike its clean power stations. 1.7 GW of the UK’s 2.4 GW of data centres lie within 20 miles of the capital.

Left map shows the location and power capacity of every data centre in the UK. Right map shows the location and capacity of large clean power stations in the UK (nuclear, biomass, hydro and wind). Cross and bubbles are sized according to power capacity.

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PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · 29/05/2026

New on the Latitude blog: meet PLOS Climate Academic Editor @dralaaclimate.bsky.social, who recently joined the team on our Machine Learning and AI section 👇 latitude.plos.org/2026/05/meet...

latitude.plos.org

Meet PLOS Climate Academic Editor Alaa Al Khourdajie - Latitude

We are delighted to introduce Alaa Al Khourdajie (Imperial College London, UK) as an Academic Editor in PLOS Climate‘s new Machine Learning and…

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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

In response to recent misinformation about the use of scenarios in IPCC reports: the IPCC does not conduct its own research, run models or make measurements. The IPCC’s role is to assess the available scientific, peer-reviewed literature relevant to climate change: www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/i...

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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

This is a quick summary of the latest CMIP process. It is a complex beast and a consensus project so there are always things that you’ll agree with and those that you might not. 1/

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Emily Theokritoff @etheokritoff.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The climate #litigation pico session and splinter meeting are back at #EGU26! ⚖️ We’re looking forward to another round of enriching, highly interdisciplinary talks and discussions. Based on this year’s impressive line-up of abstracts and speakers, it’s set to be a great one.

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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

I've been privileged over the years to write a sequence energy modelling methodology papers with (now Professor 🥳) Steve Pye of UCL, along with a rotating cast of amazing people. The latest dropped today in Nature Energy ➡️ rdcu.be/e2tt6

rdcu.be

Addressing context-specific energy modelling risks and dynamics in low- and middle-income countries

Nature Energy - Low- and middle-income countries face unique challenges when it comes to balancing growing energy needs with broader, long-term development needs. This Perspective argues for...

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PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · 22/12/2025

On the 22nd day of our #PLOSClimateCountdown, we're featuring an Essay by @dralaaclimate.bsky.social: "The role of Artificial Intelligence in climate change scientific assessments" 🔗 journals.plos.org/climate/arti...

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Natassa Romanou @aromanou.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

#NCAR is a leading institution in climate science. Climate science is not woke. It is the science that explains the evidence we have over the last few decades of an earth system that is stressed by anthropogenic interference.

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Béatrice Cointe @beatricecointe.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

[2/3] One in Futures on "Constructing futures through climate modelling", that I'm co-editing with @dralaaclimate.bsky.social, @natasja.bsky.social, @a-nikas.bsky.social and Chris Groves Submission deadline for *papers* : March 31 www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...

sciencedirect.com

Futures | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier - Futures | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier

Read the latest articles of Futures at ScienceDirect.com, Elsevier’s leading platform of peer-reviewed scholarly literature

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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

Climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, and pollution are together claiming millions of lives and costing trillions of dollars every year, according to the most comprehensive assessment of the global environment ever undertaken 🧵

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Here we go, @ipcc.bsky.social first lead author meeting (and for the first time ever covering all three working groups) A mixed feeling of excitement and responsibility

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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

#COP30: Imperial researchers react to ‘deeply disappointing’ climate talks In the aftermath of the agreement, Imperial experts Dr Nathan Johnson, Dr Robin Lamboll, Prof Joeri Rogelj, Dr Alaa Al Khourdajie, Dr Emily Theokritoff and Dr Caterina Brandmayr have weighed in 🧵 ow.ly/9CSZ50XwZzs

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

A lot of people are going to lose money on this. Solar radiation modification only makes sense if followed by large-scale carbon dioxide removal, and we ain't got that.

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Spent Saturday night reviewing the final #COP30 Belém draft text. A friend joked it counts as “light reading.” Unfortunately, it is very much a light read. 1/

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

Quick clarification: at roughly today’s global emissions, an extra five years of “holding steady” would add about 0.1°C of warming. So talk of a remaining 1.5°C “gap” is not a reassuring buffer… every year of plateau deepens any future overshoot and makes a return less feasible. End +1

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

The text’s “national pacing” fundamentally misunderstands this: Delay doesn’t provide options; it eliminates them. Every year without output cuts pushes the peak higher, making any return to 1.5°C less feasible. End/

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Either we accept 2.3°C as permanent, OR we attempt course correction so late that overshoot becomes unnecessarily deep and prolonged, if return remains feasible at all. Both mean more irreversible climate impacts. 4/

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Yet the text acknowledges a 2.3–2.5°C trajectory, risking even this overshoot-and-return scenario. Without binding requirements for immediate fossil fuel cuts, we face two failures: 3/

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

My main remark: the increased risk of and from overshoot. Our only chance for 1.5°C is now likely through overshoot; temporarily exceeding before returning. Even that comes with huge feasibility challenges. 2/

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Spent Saturday night reviewing the final #COP30 Belém draft text. A friend joked it counts as “light reading.” Unfortunately, it is very much a light read. 1/

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