Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Overshoot map: Peak warming (x-axis) vs 2100 warming (y). Below the diagonal = overshoot magnitude. Grey bands: range covered only by Tier-3 scenarios. Red bands: gap between Low and Medium-to-Low. SSP2-Com sits inside the inner red gap on both axes. 5/6 120
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026ScenarioMIP marker scenarios for CMIP7 are now public. Seven IAM pathways from ~1.4°C to ~3.4°C at 2100 [panel a] that will shape IPCC AR7 assessment 1/6 174
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12 2174109
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 01/12/2025Here we go, @ipcc.bsky.social first lead author meeting (and for the first time ever covering all three working groups) A mixed feeling of excitement and responsibility 0162
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 21/11/2025As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again. Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement) 1/3 11612
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 13/11/2025Join our #COP30 event “CCUS Myth-Busting Live: Ask the Experts” Date and time Monday 17 November, 10:00–11:30 am local time (1:00-2:30pm UK time) Location: UK Pavilion, Blue Zone (A23) YouTube live stream: www.youtube.com/live/SjaW3Ob... 251
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 29/09/2025New working paper out: "Four scenarios for an @ipcc.bsky.social navigating Artificial Intelligence" Led by @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social, with @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden Thread 🧵 1/13 2175
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 15/09/20253) 🏛️ For assessment workflows: Two institutional pathways • IPCC as "producer" (developing & using validated tools internally) • IPCC as "assessor" (critically evaluating published AI-driven analyses in the literature) 8/9 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 15/09/20251) 📊 A detailed taxonomy (Table 1) mapping AI tools across 5 workflow stages: semantic search in literature query, ML classifiers for screening, topic modelling for knowledge mapping, each specifying opportunities, challenges & the expert's irreplaceable role 5/9 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 15/08/2025Pleasure to be selected as a Lead Author for IPCC AR7, chapter 14 (Integration and interactions across sectors and systems), alongside a great team to work with for the next few years. Full list of all AR7 authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho... AR7 outline: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/... 0171
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 29/07/2025I keep coming back to these pages of Omar El Akkad’s book brilliantly titled “One day, when it's safe, when there's no personal downside to calling a thing what it is, when it's too late to hold anyone accountable, everyone will have always been against this” 12819
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 19/05/2025The future will be shaped by decisions we make today. Working on climate mitigation has never felt more personal #WarmingStripes 0101
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 20/02/2025Equity & justice are major issues in cost-effectiveness utilitarian mitigation scenarios. Many in the scientific community are working on addressing them. Important to flag though: @ipcc.bsky.social does not have models, or run scenarios. It is an assessment of what is out there in the literature. 050
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 23/11/2024#COP29 text is out: unfccc.int/sites/defaul... Key omissions: no mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels, phasing down unabated coal, or scaling up renewables and efficiency. These measures alone weren’t enough to meet the PA goals... and now, we’ve taken a step back... 3137
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 16/11/2024Half way through #COP29, the negotiations on mitigation work programme under #SBSTA #SBI are almost falling apart. LMDCs parties are calling to defer the whole discussion till COP30, Brazil, blocking continued talks next week.. not even accepting the below text simply stating lack of agreement.. 110
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 02/09/2024The opening plenary of the 3rd (and last) lead authors meeting for the @UNEP #GEO7 assessment on climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution and land degradation, Nairobi 051
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 29/08/2024The Economist had a go at this, in their weekly Simply Science.. this still reads to me a model being parametrised (for instance) with real time data.. thoughts? 120
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 23/07/2024For example: almost 90% of companies with 1.5°C-aligned targets approved by Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) are in advanced economies, with less than 1% in Africa (Fig 1) This shows a clear bias in adoption & capacity, resulting from the narrow & arbitrary rules 11/20 111
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 23/07/2024🚨New Paper🚨"Science-based targets miss the mark" with @andyreisinger.bsky.social, Annette Cowie, Oliver Geden @natureportfolio.bsky.social - Comm Earth & Env #OpenAccess In this perspective, we challenge the equity & ambition claims of science-based targets 🧵 nature.com/articles/s43... 1/20 32117
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/02/2024The overall picture by factor (climate ambition vs socioeconomic background vs differences between models) looks like this.. 8/12 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/02/2024Final energy by sector, of course pop & GDP (SSPs) matter most.. Not for the industry sector, models assumptions matter more, e.g. role of non-electric fuels, indirect electrification via hydrogen or constraints on electrifying the chemical industry (cc @chrisbataille.bsky.social ) 6/12 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/02/2024The background scenarios (SSPs) factor strongly influences final energy demand (population & econ growth) - again no surprise A seemingly unimportant effect of climate ambition on electricity is a product of more electricity overall ⬆️ but also more efficient use of it ⬇️ 5/12 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/02/2024When it comes to renewables, differences across models matter a lot A possible implication is that there is more of a consensus that high levels of ambition require more renewable energy than there is on the type of renewable energy required. 4/12 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/02/2024The climate ambition factor is the biggest driver of emissions & fossil fuels reductions (especially coal & oil) -no surprise there - (blue stacks in plots) Coupling FF w CCS: climate ambition is unimportant, socioecon assump. are, but chosen level of CCS vary among models 3/12 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 09/02/2024We attribute variations in energy-related indicators to 3 factors individually ▶️Climate ambition ▶️Socioeconomic background scenarios (SSPs) ▶️Differences between models Importantly we also highlight proportions of variations that can’t be explained (graphical abstract) 2/12 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/12/2023As for #COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh (right) and #COP26 Glasgow (left) decisions, the text is identical as it has been lifted word by word from COP26 to COP27 text 5/6 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/12/2023Next, mentions of fossil fuel phaseout in the Technical Assessment of the GST1, Sept 2023 4/6 unfccc.int/sites/defaul... 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/12/2023In the latest @IPCC AR6 reports, the role of fossil fuels in net zero CO2 energy systems is clearly set out, also (unlike 39 (c) in #COP28 text above) net zero CO2 emissions timing needs to be reached earlier WGIII AR6 SPM on the left.. AR6 SYR report on the right 3/6 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/12/2023How does the proposed #COP28 text on fossil fuels compares to previous COPs decisions and GST text, as well as latest IPCC reports: Starting with the today's GST draft for #COP28UAE 1/6 122
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/12/2023"limitations on permitting new & unabated coal power gen" & having renewables & CCS "to enhance efforts towards substitutions of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems".. Certainly not aligned w scientific findings & heavy industry sector is completely missed. Highlights by @drsimevans.bsky.social 000
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 04/12/2023Finally, Oil: Applications for oil with CCS (i.e abated) are minimal and model-dependent and the phase out of unabated oil is not as large as coal 000
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 04/12/2023Third, gas, quite a bit remains in the system in most scenarios 3/4 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 04/12/2023Second, focusing on Coal only The scale of phasing out coal is huge, and immediate.. even abated coal is minimal (compared to gas for instance, check next) 2/4 100
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 04/12/2023#COP28 #FossilFuels How does phasing out *unabated* (i.e. without CCS) versus *abated* (i.e. with CCS) fossil fuels looks like in the latest @IPCC_CH AR6 assessment First, starting with aggregaTe fossil fuels (with & without CCS) for mitigation scenarios aligned w PA goals 1/4 101
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 30/11/2023Check out our briefing on defining the term “abated” fossil fuels What criteria do CCS installations need to satisfy in order for the fossil facility to qualify as abated? & most importantly why does this matter? #COP28 w @chrisbataille.bsky.social & c ow.ly/iKnP50QcYCt 286