Sign in

Dr. Amy H Butler

@drahbutler.bsky.social
2.1K followers 575 following 113 posts

Atmospheric Scientist, atmos dynamics/chemistry-climate, polar vortex expert. Views expressed are mine.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 10/08/2026
Happy to have contributed to Chapter 5 "The Arctic" in a section led by @drahbutler.bsky.social – featuring some discussion of an unusually early final stratospheric warming for winter 2024/25 and an unusually early sudden stratospheric warming for winter 2025/26! doi.org/10.1175/BAMS...
0196
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 11/06/2026
An El Niño Advisory has been issued and you may have recently heard the term "Super El Niño". One of our meteorologists explains the terms NOAA uses to describe ENSO intensity and some basics of what El Niño is and is not. See the advisory: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
614038
Dr. Amy H Butler @drahbutler.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
CIRES is hiring a new position to work with our group at NOAA CSL, to evaluate stratospheric composition in chemical forecast models and develop new satellite-based composition datasets- please apply! jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...
jobs.colorado.edu
CIRES / NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Research Scientist in Atmospheric Modeling and Data Analysis
053
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Science Magazine @science.org · 03/05/2026
A new Science study has revealed a hidden population of extremely small, organic-rich aerosol particles in the lower stratosphere. The findings suggest that these ultrafine aerosols are far more abundant and chemically influential than previously understood. scim.ag/4u9OFPj
scim.ag
An unrecognized mode of small particles in the lower stratosphere
Analysis of recent in situ data reveals a persistent mode of organic-rich aerosol particles in the stratosphere below 19 kilometers at nitrous oxide (N2O) > 270 parts per billion by volume, with a num...
04613
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Emily J @emexastris.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
If you’ve been moved & inspired by Artemis, NASA needs your help. Literally during A2, the president proposed cutting NASA science 47%, canceling 54 missions, including many already in-flight. To help stop these cuts, check out @planetarysociety.bsky.social www.planetary.org/save-nasa-sc...
planetary.org
Save NASA Science Action Hub
Updates and actions on the proposed cuts to NASA science in FY 2027.
5533408
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
New in the final version: a dedicated section on natural forcings (solar; volcanic), a discussion scenario likelihood, and on equity and justice considerations in scenario design. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
egusphere.copernicus.org
Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 (part 1): Optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations (version 2.2.1)
Abstract. Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provi...
132
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
CIRES @cires.colorado.edu · 09/04/2026
Pollution from sending rockets into space and space debris falling back into Earth's orbit “has been negligible” compared to other sources — but an increase in rocket launches could change things. CIRES' Christopher Maloney shares his expertise in this Undark article ⬇️ undark.org/2026/04/06/a...
undark.org
As Rocket Launches Increase, They May Be Polluting the Skies
Research suggests that rocket exhaust and debris could be threatening the ozone layer, though many uncertainties persist.
052
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Probability of super El Nino vs probability of super duper turbocharged El Nino? Check out the strength forecast cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
The bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Looking pretty super
1218
Dr. Amy H Butler @drahbutler.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
🎉 Excited that our paper "Externally-forced changes to Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling variability" was published in Earth's Future today. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
1143
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
On the CPC's 6-10 Day Outlook (for March 19-23), 33.4% of the Lower 48 has a >90% chance of being in the warmest temperature tercile. The 33.4% number is the 5th largest on record for this product and the highest percentage in 9 years (since Feb 13, 2017 issuance).
511744
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Agreed, Amy! Here’s my own take on this theme, published Mon 3/9: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-j...
yaleclimateconnections.org
We just had the second-warmest winter in U.S. history, despite icy blasts » Yale Climate Connections
Record-smashing Western warmth far outperformed a memorable Eastern stretch of cold waves and winter storms.
111
Dr. Amy H Butler @drahbutler.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
This is the story I’ve been waiting weeks for. Article after article on the cold weather in the eastern half of the US and barely a peep about the absolutely bonkers warm (and in CO very dry) winter in the west.
2100
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Scientific American @sciam.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Though it may surprise East Coasters, the story of this winter was not record cold but record heat
scientificamerican.com
No U.S. states had a record cold winter. Nine had a record hot one
Though it may surprise East Coasters, the story of this winter was not record cold but record heat
31617258
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Colorado Climate Center @climate.colostate.edu · 10/03/2026
Unfortunately, not much good news to share in our February state climate summary. According to NOAA data, it was the warmest February in 132 years of records. Mountain snowpack remains at the lowest level in over 40 years. Several locations set new monthly high temperature records for February. 1/4
February 2026
Colorado Monthly Climate Summary
statewide departure from 1901-2000 avg: +9.2°F statewide departure from 1991-2020 avg: +7.6°F
statewide rank: 1st warmest/132nd coldest
Warmest February on record statewide
Snowpack remains lowest in over 40 years
Several locations, including Denver, Fort Collins, Akron, and Colorado Springs shatter records for most 60°F+ days
Multiple grass fires, including ones near Boulder, Thornton, Matheson, and Wiggins
Maximum daily precipitation (1.8" at Spud
Mountain)
Minimum daily temperature (-27°F
in Taylor Park)
Maximum daily temperature
(85°F in Pueblo and Campo)
Maximum daily snowfall 12.5" near Bayfield)
February 2026 Temperature Rank (from NCEI nclimgrid)
Statewide Temperature and Precipitation Ranks for February 2026 (based on 1895-2026 data)
1st warmest (record warmest)
37th driest (below average)
13624
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Dec-Feb was the 2nd warmest winter for the Contiguous U.S. according to ERA5 Reanalysis. 31% of the Contiguous U.S. had their warmest winter on record (since 1940), 53% were much above average, and only 1% was much below average (both compared to the 1991-2020 baseline).
16724
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Ryan Stauffer @ryanswx.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Happy SSW Day ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/...
082
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Becky Bolinger @climatebecky.com · 24/02/2026
@rschumacher.cloud on a state call this morning, talking about the crazy warmth we've been experiencing. The number of days Fort Collins has passed 60°F this winter, far surpasses any other winter!
Fort Collins number of days with TMAX >= 60°F, December through February. "Fort Collins has recorded 38 60°F days this winter. Previous high was 22 (1980-81). The remaining days in the month are all forecast to be 60 or above (five more).
42514
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Science Magazine @science.org · 11/02/2026
Geoscientists will soon have two powerful new eyes on Earth, offering unprecedented views of the changes occurring within the planet’s upper atmosphere and on its surface. scim.ag/3Mg0Xpa
scim.ag
NASA greenlights two earth science missions, to researchers’ relief
Orbiting satellites will monitor changes in the stratosphere and on the planet’s surface
15616
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Chris Bianchi @bianchiweather.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
This is now Denver's lowest season-to-date snow in 115 years. #COwx
67220
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 02/02/2026
Is climate change responsible for increasingly frequent or severe cold events? The evidence suggests it is not. Instead, the impact of climate change is warmer winters and less severe cold events. @hausfath.bsky.social has a great post on The Climate Brink talking about this.
substack.com
Fact check: Climate change is not making extreme cold more common
Sometimes it just gets cold
1111443
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Cristi Proistosescu @cristiproist.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
There have been some arguments that global warming leads to more cold extremes. However, that arguments mostly lives on because it is pushed by a few high-profile Big Accounts™. I don't think the literature supports it - neither in data, models, nor observations 3/
1131
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 23/01/2026
The extreme cold across eastern N America is due to the Alaskan Ridge regime, which on average brings the coldest winter weather to this region. Is this happening more often? No. During the modern warming era, there has been no observed trend in the occurrence of this regime at this time of year.
A time series of the January–February frequency (in days) of the AKR regime from 1979 to 2025 using ERA5 data, based on the year-round classification of Lee et al. 2023 (J. Climate) updated through 2025.
38028
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Michael Sigmond @michaelsigmond.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Proud to share our new paper in npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. (@SpringerNature)! Our findings: 1️⃣ reduce uncertainty in mid-latitude climate projections 2️⃣ increase confidence that #ClimateModels correctly predict a future poleward shift of the #JetStream Read the paper here 👉 rdcu.be/eS73b #ClimateScience
rdcu.be
Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models
0155
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Andrew Freedman @afreedma.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
An unusually early sudden stratospheric warming event is likely to send the polar vortex on the move. Questions exist re: how this will affect US weather, but odds for colder, snowier weather are ticking up esp. in Central/Eastern US www.cnn.com/2025/11/19/w...
cnn.com
The polar vortex is about to bring a wild weather pattern change | CNN
Over the next 10 days, scientists say, changes in the stratosphere will upend weather patterns and set the stage for a cold, snowy December across parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
22712
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 13/11/2025
The ensemble mean of today's IFS subseasonal forecast now predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming in reliable records, beating 28 November 1968. Will this verify? 👀 charts.ecmwf.int/products/ext...
ECMWF 10 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind forecast from 13 Nov 2025 showing winds reversing to easterly, indicating a major SSW
3439
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Marco Petagna @petagna.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
It was well forecast for ~10 days, and the spv stratospheric polar vortex has now doubled in strength this past week EC analysis showing W winds 10hpa 60N increasing from around 35mph to around 70mph Models have also been forecasting a weakening going forward now..one to watch
1153
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Interesting to see so many ECMWF ensemble members producing a major sudden stratospheric warming event, where the 60N zonal wind at 10 hPa reverses, in late Nov or 1st half Dec. In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
1123
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 15/10/2025
UGH! When will it end. 😭 "Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services." nsidc.org/data/user-re...
Screenshot that says "Sea Ice Today" and "Ice Sheets Today" Services Reduced. More information is stated: "Beginning October 15, 2025, NSIDC’s Sea Ice Today and Ice Sheets Today services will be reduced because of non-renewed funding. This means no new monthly and mid-month analysis posts for Sea Ice Today or regular posts for Ice Sheets Today, limited comparison tools, and reduced user support."
15274117
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 23/10/2025
QBOi-SNAP-QUOCA workshop: improved simulations of the stratosphere for better predictions of weather, climate and extreme events Meeting report from the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social APARC workshop in Cambridge earlier this year Free to view in @rmets.org Weather: doi.org/10.1002/wea....
doi.org
QBOi‐SNAP‐QUOCA workshop: improved simulations of the stratosphere for better predictions of weather, climate and extreme events
Click on the article title to read more.
043
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Jason Furtado @wxjay.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/c...
nytimes.com
In First Six Months, Cost of Weather Catastrophes Escalated at a Record Pace
031
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Great explainer by Martin Jucker @drjucker.bsky.social on the emerging Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over Antarctica, noting it is just one climate driver at play and does *not* lock in another 2019-like spring/summer. (Thanks also to Martin for citing our 2019 SSW article with Harry and EunPa)
1113
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 23/09/2025
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
16770371
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 24/09/2025
This map shows temperature departures averaged over the last 3 months. What's it like in your area? 🟥 warmer than average 🟦 colder than average Data from data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Global map showing surface air temperature anomalies for the June to August 2025. Most all areas are warmer than average, except for parts of the southern Ocean and Antarctica. Anomalies are relative to 1951-1980 from NASA/GISS GISTEMPv4 data.
128530
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Andrea Thompson @andreatweather.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
A little bit of good news for you. And a reminder that we *can* solve big, global problems--when we want to. 🧪 (by @meghanbartels.bsky.social)
scientificamerican.com
The Ozone Hole Is Steadily Shrinking because of Global Efforts
After nearly 40 years of global efforts, the ozone hole over Antarctica is continuing to heal
11299111
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Marshall Shepherd @drshepherd2013.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Many vital federal climate websites and data are increasingly difficult to access. A new nonproft organization called @climate.us seeks to fill the gap. My Labor Day thoughts in Forbes on their emergence. www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
forbes.com
The Rise Of Climate.us
A new nonprofit effort seeks to preserve and expand the functionality of a former popular government climate website. Can they succeed?
18537
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 05/08/2025
Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings New paper from @robertwlee.bsky.social, Andrew Charlton-Perez @unirdg-met.bsky.social and me, published today in @agu.org GRL doi.org/10.1029/2025...
doi.org
Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Using a stratospheric nudging protocol with operational subseasonal systems, we assess weather impacts from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) SSWs consistently shift the atmospheric state towa...
1279
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Kevin Manross @kmanwx.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Also, NOAA Labs and Cooperative Institutes develop the warning software used by the TWCs (as well as NWS). gsl.noaa.gov/research/pro...
gsl.noaa.gov
Products | NOAA OAR GSL
Global Systems Laboratory
04113
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Chanda Prescod-Weinstein 🌌 @chanda.blacksky.app · 28/07/2025
It is an extraordinary loss of intellectual expertise that the American people invested millions in developing Every scientist who earns a graduate degree in the US is the product of an investment by the public This is like setting money on fire
8640021538
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
If you think I've forgotten about the hurricane satellites, think again. The Navy is permanently unplugging them this week, on the brink of the busiest stretch of the season. There's so much more to this story, and I have the latest scoop. ⬇️
michaelrlowry.substack.com
Navy Set to Unplug Critical Hurricane Satellites this Week
Abrupt termination of satellite data by U.S. Department of Defense sends forecasters scrambling for a fix on the brink of the busiest stretch of the hurricane season
18332581788
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 27/07/2025
Turkey recorded its highest temperature on record on Friday with 50.5°C recorded in Silopi ⚠️📈 This exceeds the previous record of 49.5°C recorded on 15th August 2023 🌡️ This extreme heat is bringing serious health impacts and giving a very high risk of wildfires 🔥
A map showing temperatures across Turkey, Saudi Arabia and northeast Africa on Friday 25th July 2025. Silopi, Şırnak, Turkey is marked on the map and a temperature of 50.5 Celsius is also marked. This is a new temperature record for Turkey.
911478
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Alex Spahn 🌋🌪️☄️ @spahn711.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Playing around with a close-up B&W edit of the best footage I have ever captured on this Earth. Hoping compression doesn't prevent y'all from seeing the incredible rain of debris. Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala (March 2023)
3076596867
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Martin Stendel @martinstendel.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Melting over 80.6% of the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This is the highest value in our data set, which starts in 1981. @polarportal.bsky.social
Screenshot from polarportal.dk, a website that makes research on the Arctic research conducted by Danish institutions available to the public and researchers. The image shows Greenland in tan and the Greenland Ice Sheet in red and white. The red part indicates melting and covers all except about 20% in the northeast, which is roughly the area higher than 2500 m above Se level.

Below the map is a chart that compares 2025 melting to the 1981-2010 average. The average melting peaks in mid-July at about 35%. For the last few days, melting has occurred over roughly 80% of the area of Greenland, with a maximum melt area of 80.6% on 24 July 2025. This is the highest value in our dataset, which starts in 1981.
13331238
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Alt NOAA Climate @altnoaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Today is the top of the month release of the NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion (EDD), and it will be the first time in 11 years that Climate.gov isn't releasing an associated ENSO blog update. It would have contained an updated version of this graph. [1/4]
Line graph showing observed and predicted temperatures (black line) in the key ENSO-monitoring region of the tropical Pacific from spring 2025 through the fall.
22412
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Lily Dove @solilyquy.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Big up to @rdzombak.bsky.social for bringing eyes to this story. 🧪 So many people beyond my little cohort of fellows are impacted by slowdowns at NOAA. America is rapidly losing footing as a leader in climate science and we all are paying the cost.
nytimes.com
Recipients of a U.S. Climate Science Fellowship Are Put on Unpaid Leave
310347
Dr. Amy H Butler @drahbutler.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Please consider submitting an abstract to our AGU session "A092 - Stratospheric Dynamics, Aerosol Processes, and Interactions with the Troposphere". There's a lot of new interesting science on this topic to share! agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...
140
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Jessica Tierney @leafwax.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
As of today, all current NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellows have been furloughed due to the Dept of Commerce not releasing the funding for the program. In addition no new Fellows were awarded this year. cpaess.ucar.edu/cgc
cpaess.ucar.edu
NOAA Climate & Global Change (C&GC) Postdoctoral Program | Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System ScienceNOAA Climate & Global Change (C&GC) Postdoctoral Program | Cooperative Progra...
15365246
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Caitlyn Kim @caitlynkim.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Proposed NOAA budget would shutter Boulder’s world-class climate research laboratories www.cpr.org/2025/07/01/p... via @sambrasch.bsky.social
cpr.org
Proposed NOAA budget would shutter Boulder’s world-class climate research laboratories
The plan follows through on Project 2025, which called to radically shrink the agency’s research arm.
04125
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
NOAA Climate.gov @climate.noaa.gov · 27/06/2025
Our final updates have been posted to the Climate.gov website, and this will be our final post to our social media channels.
115962414
Reposted by Dr. Amy H Butler
Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
When you turn on a light only to discover a rattlesnake, turning off the light doesn't make the snake disappear. It just means you can no longer see the snake. Feels like that's what's happening with all the weather and climate monitoring tools that we're losing, with SSMIS as the latest casualty.
420736