Reposted by Michael Tippett 🎃
A new study shows a clear regional divide in future US hurricane landfalls: while tropical cyclone frequency is projected to decline along the Gulf Coast—including Texas—it will steadily increase along the Southeastern US coastline throughout the 21st century. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/09/29/f...
ocean2climate.org
Future Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Gulf Drops while the Southeast Braces for Impact
Figure 1 from Lele et al. (2026). Multi-Model Mean of track density change in the North Atlantic, calculated between future and historical periods for SSP1-2.6 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b). Stippling shows…
![CPC RONI page screenshot
Cold & Warm Episodes by Season
Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI):
Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes (1950-Present)
Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/-0.5°C for the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), using the
1991-2020 base period [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W) with average tropical mean (20°N-20°S) SST anomalies subtracted.
The difference is then adjusted so the variance equals the original
Niño 3.4 index].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of five (5) consecutive overlapping seasons. The RONI is one measure of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods.
Data availability: 1950-2025](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xatchrzjfq4pvdqmjycyb4jt/bafkreiejn4pkqersrx2q7j6nvfi7rixob2yeq7cwj36feabgpioov5kipu)
