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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 13h

I've noticed a cool signal in the GFS ensemble for 11-15 days time in the UK & Ireland drawing some attention lately, but I'm not convinced at this stage. It's only slight, with a lot of scatter, & ECMWF's ensemble is more evenly spread around the long-term average.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 19h

Observed an overnight low of 17.6°C here in NE Dorset. This would be by far the latest-in-year on record for a low in the 17s if not for 13th October 2018. That date saw an equally warm night half a month further into autumn, an extraordinary feat.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

ECMWF's modelled soil moisture status indicates widespread low amounts in western & central Europe, including much of southern England & the SE of Wales. A long-running hydrological drought continues, & the forecast looks anomaly dry widely until at least a week into October.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Looking at the 8-14 day range in the ECMWF ensemble clusters, I'm struck by how many feature high pressure over NW Europe. ~86% support for that days 8-10, still ~37% on day 14 which is notably high considering the pattern persistence that would entail.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Today & tomorrow look to reach the 30s °C in parts of SW France, perhaps the final occurrences within that country this year. Notable warmth spreads north-eastward tomorrow & Wednesday, with a wide swathe of mid-high 20s °C, impressive for the end of September.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Seems this is a thing that the GFS model does now: Occasionally simulating a hurricane-style windstorm in the Mediterranean (an unusually strong example of a 'medicane'). Likely a manifestation of the bias seen with tropical cyclone development; too eager to spin things up.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Good example tomorrow of how weather conditions aren't all about how low or high the sea-level pressure is. A trailing front, though decaying, will bring some heavy spells of rain to parts of northern France, Belgium, & The Netherlands. Perhaps SE England in the evening.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Still seeing the potential for a notably warm 29th September in parts of England, though nothing exceptional unless the deep low to the west is adjusted to approach more slowly in future model runs. Also uncertain exactly how much cloud will be around to limit the warmth.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

What's this, two named storms at the same time in the North Atlantic basin? Unremarkable in almost any season, but not this one. Both are forecast to stay below hurricane strength, though Fay might briefly get to within ~15 mph of the required max. sustained wind speed.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Just a little disagreement between UKM & GFS regarding how much low pressure to the west of the UK deepens early next week...! In the past few runs GFS has really gone off the idea of a favourable interaction with the jet stream. UKM has held steady.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Only "for fun" but the end of the GFS 06z run is something I'd very much like to experience for the novelty of it. 25°C here in NE Dorset 9 days into October would be quite something. Alas, way too far ahead to take this scenario seriously.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I suspect the overnight ECMWF det. run got carried away here, but it predicted a genuinely hurricane-force windstorm just west of Ireland early next week. The potential for a powerful windstorm is legit, but this is probably near the top end of what's possible.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

A warm September so far for the Hadley CET, with forecast models suggesting more of the same for most of the rest of the month. Potential for a finish within the warmest 5 on record. Behaviour of a poss. deep low to the SW or W of the UK early next week introducing uncertainty.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

With its unremarkable temperatures it feels like last January didn't really belong in 2026 - every since, every month has been far warmer than average here. For 1st Feb to 22nd Sep, 2026 is close to a degree Celsius warmer than the next warmest for both min & max temps.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The way this El Niño laughs in the face of y-axis limits... what a beast of an event. Alas, it will lead to challenging times for many areas of the world during the next ~6 months, as it shifts weather patterns well away from normal.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Intense rainfall affected Edinburgh & surrounds early this morning, with flash flooding reported. From the radar it looks to have been a strong squall line embedded within a broader area of heavy rainfall.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Far enough south to avoid the cloud further inland, but far enough north for scarcely any breeze off the Channel, NE Dorset is among the UK hotspots today, nudging 26°C. In reliable records it’s rarely been hotter this time of year.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

This past week forecast models have been toying with the idea of some exceptional warmth for the time of year to end Sep &/or begin Oct. Latest ECMWF det. run went all in for early Oct. This would be on par with the extraordinary start to Oct 2011.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

First time I’ve ever seen a red squirrel first-hand & it came right over - wish I’d been carrying some tree nuts! (Near Penrith, Lake District)

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Across Derwent Water, Lake District 🌦️

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

A strong sense of "back down to Earth" with the weather here so far this month. Statistically it's been warm but otherwise unremarkable, with mean daily max 1.8°C above average & min 2.0°C above, rainfall 17% above, sunshine 13% below. Yet it's felt naff compared to August.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Remarkably, the 12 UKMO run had a go at the usually well developed Mediterranean tropical cyclone scenario that GFS has been toying with occasionally in recent days for ~16th September. Seems this is a legit possibility worth keeping tabs on.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

This table shows my local (NE Dorset) mean daily max temp to-date as of the end of each calendar month. Usually peaks Sep or Oct, with the 1943-2025 record high 17.51°C in Oct 2022. This year has already obliterated that at the end of Aug.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Time for one of my tally-to-date graphs for the Atlantic hurricane season. Hmm, 2026 isn't appearing, I wonder why... ah right, because it hasn't produced a single hurricane yet! Of the recorded years with a season total in the lowest 10%, only 3 had yet to produce a hurricane.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Seasonal models have long suggested that autumn 2026 becomes increasingly wet & windy in northern Europe, but how quickly that progresses is uncertain. The latest multi-model blend for October displays poor confidence, barely outside of 'no signal' for most of Europe.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

As I look at September so far here, it makes a change to see 2026 within the main pack of historical years. Instead it's 2023 that stands out with its extraordinary heatwave. Prior to June 2026's it was the most extreme on record in terms of the mean departure from average.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Local to me in NE Dorset, 18.7 mm rain fell yesterday, contributing to 35.2 mm in the past 11 days - not far off what I'd usually expect in a full May, June, or July. Yet walking around since, I've not seen any mud even in the most prone locations. It was so very dry before!

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Topping out at 19.0°C, yesterday ended a run of 88 days reaching at least 20°C here in NE Dorset. Last year saw a record-long run that started 2 days sooner & ended 1 day later. Both years are well clear of what's now third place... a run that also ended on 8th September!

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Over the past 48 hours, forecast models have become increasingly interested in a return to mid-summer-like temperatures in parts of the UK during at least the early part of next week. It's an interesting signal, but the guidance has been rather choppy this past week.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Observed totals at rain gauges up to 4 pm today, courtesy of roostweather.com. Of the model runs initialised early yesterday, GFS was the most accurate, UKMO the least. Later runs saw GFS adjust the wrong way & UKMO the right way, though it went a bit too far with its 12z.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

That sunshine still has plenty of power to it. Within half an hour only a few small puddles remained There’s been a very high % absorption of nearly 20 mm rain into the soils here - great for the plants.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

GFS shifted south again for its 12z, though only a little. UKMO hasn't shifted much but has upped the development of the disturbance along the front to an incredible - & frankly questionable - degree. GDPS is similar to ECMWF's 00z, seems a good take to me.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

2026's Arctic sea ice melting season was an intriguing one. The high Arctic barely made it above freezing at 2 m, which is very unusual. Yet the sea ice extent is currently in the middle of the past 10 years range & very close to last year. Heat exchanges may explain this...

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

A week into autumn & I'm still realising new things about last summer here. Such as how massively July-August exceeded the prior record for total sunshine: 89.9 more hours than 1976. That's around 6 clear days' worth of additional sunshine, absolutely incredible.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

How much rain will fall in southern England & Wales tonight? The forecast models haven't a clue! Here in NE Dorset I'm looking at anywhere from 3 to 20 mm based on the latest deterministic runs from GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, & GDPS. Extraordinary uncertainty for such short lead time.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Some large adjustments in the forecast modelling lately. What once looked an increasingly wet weekend for southern UK now looks to see just a little rain on Sunday, with the wet weather focused further north - where most of the rain falls on Saturday.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Even with the scarcity of dry days lately - just one in the past nine days - 2026 is continuing to set low records for period-total rainfall in my local area. Latest addition is for an 85-day period, 24.6 mm, 11% lower than the old record of 27.5 mm set in 1978.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

We're two-thirds of the way through this year, yet local to me it already holds the most date record high max temperatures by a margin of 9 days, & the second highest number of date record high min temperatures.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

It's been hard to get a good read on the forecast modelling lately but with generally rising global atmospheric angular momentum, the latest ECMWF det. run seems a reasonable take for UK & IE: Mixed weather for the next 10 days before high pressure builds in more emphatically.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Zero sunshine recorded here yesterday. First time since... 24th March 😲 Lifetime British resident not used to overcast skies, who'd have thought it.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Temperature-wise, local to me, summer 2026 was further beyond 2025 & 2018 than they were beyond the likes of 2006 & 2022. Record high is increased by 0.85°C for min, 1.40°C for max. Compared to the famous summer of 1976, the mean daily max was 1.5°C higher, min 1.8°C higher.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Summer 2026 was the 8th driest on record here, despite an above average June. July-August was 3rd driest on record. All the rain in August fell in the final 13 days, 70% of which was during 29th-30th! 2026 was just 3 days short of recording a mere 6.1 mm for July-August.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Perhaps ECMWF's deterministic model has false-Monday blues because this is a pretty outrageous forecast for the night of 8th-9th September: A very compact low deepening to 983 mb, resulting in gusts to near 70 mph affecting coasts of southern Ireland, western Wales, & SW England.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

August 2026 was just a tenth of a degree short of being the fourth calendar month in a row to be record-warm here in NE Dorset. To have even been in contention for that against 79 years of historical records is simply astounding.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

I never tire of this sight, which exists thanks to swift boxes being installed in modern housing developments

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Signs that midsummer-like temperatures might return to southern UK for a time later next week but low confidence on the extent & duration of that. Beyond that, the models haven't much of a clue, with some dates having scenarios ranging from unseasonably chilly to remarkably hot.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Today's rainfall totals up to 5 pm BST. Once beyond Devon, the second area of heaviest rainfall tracked further north than yesterday's runs were suggesting, Somerset-Bedfordshire rather than Dorset-Essex. Still, a useful ~10 mm in my local area. Smells like autumn out there.

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James Peacock @peacockreports.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

A: Low that crossed the UK Thu through Fri morning, slowly moving away. B: Low approaching Ireland & southern UK to bring wet weather tomorrow.

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