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@doomrick.bsky.social
753 followers 116 following 2.3K posts

I'm a homesteader of sorts who's very collapse and overshoot aware. We're on a one way trip over the cliff.

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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 20h
It cannot be overstated how fucked we are. #collapse "I would roughly estimate that spatial area difference with this year’s El Niño at about 5 times larger than in 2015 and about 10 times larger than in 2023." www.facebook.com/share/1CKU6Z...
How bad could this record size and strength El Niño be?

Comparisfon of Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) on 29 September in each of the following years: 

2026 (record El Niño) 
2025 
2023 (medium - strong El Niño) 
2015 (very strong El Niño)

The highest SSTA in the El Niño surface warm pool (tiny green circle in each image) is displayed in each of the three El Niño years. (The standard comparison uses the fixed rectangular ENSO 3.4 region for rating El Nino strength but I’m not doing that here). A simple SSTA doesn’t tell the whole story - not by a long shot. The surface spatial difference of the size of the yellow shaded area (> + 2.5 degrees C or +  4.5 degrees F), for instance, is enormously more in 2026. I would roughly estimate that spatial area difference with this year’s El Niño at about 5 times larger than in 2015 and about 10 times larger than in 2023. 

This of course doesn’t mean the 2026-2027 record El Niño will give up 5 x more sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere than the 2015-2016 event. But the huge sea surface area difference does point to a much greater heat transfer to the atmosphere than just the difference in average SST in the ENSO 3.4 region (less than 1 degree C difference) would suggest. The warm water volume anomalies indicate a record smashing volume of eastward moving warm water across the tropical Pacific but we await recent data to see by just how much more.

Also, the Indian Ocean (with an apparent ongoing shift to a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (warmer west then east)) and North Atlantic sea surfaces are considerably warmer in 2026 and that is known to significantly increase the global extreme weather impacts of an El Niño. 

The total global economic losses from the 2026-2027 El Niño are variously predicted to be between about 1 and 7 trillion U.S. dollars including over the ensuing 5 year period - and one highly publicized recent prediction of resulting human fatalities of 450,000. I suspect the losses will be far greater than that largely because of the enormously larger warm pool in the ongoing El Niño which is yet to peak in size and SST until about 2 more months from now. However not every region sees losses; some countries in the past have actually experienced an overall economic boost from an El Niño - including the U.S.  But South and SE Asia, the Indo - Pacific, Australia, much of South America, and Eastern Africa are likely to be hard hit by the record size and intensity 2026-2027 El Niño. And as I’ve posted before, parts of California, the SW U.S. and NW Mexico should brace for catastrophic flooding. 

Images from earth.nullschool.netHow bad could this record size and strength El Niño be?

Comparison of Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) on 29 September in each of the following years: 

2026 (record El Niño) 
2025 
2023 (medium - strong El Niño) 
2015 (very strong El Niño)

The highest SSTA in the El Niño surface warm pool (tiny green circle in each image) is displayed in each of the three El Niño years. (The standard comparison uses the fixed rectangular ENSO 3.4 region for rating El Nino strength but I’m not doing that here). A simple SSTA doesn’t tell the whole story - not by a long shot. The surface spatial difference of the size of the yellow shaded area (> + 2.5 degrees C or +  4.5 degrees F), for instance, is enormously more in 2026. I would roughly estimate that spatial area difference with this year’s El Niño at about 5 times larger than in 2015 and about 10 times larger than in 2023. 

This of course doesn’t mean the 2026-2027 record El Niño will give up 5 x more sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere than the 2015-2016 event. But the huge sea surface area difference does point to a much greater heat transfer to the atmosphere than just the difference in average SST in the ENSO 3.4 region (less than 1 degree C difference) would suggest. The warm water volume anomalies indicate a record smashing volume of eastward moving warm water across the tropical Pacific but we await recent data to see by just how much more.

Also, the Indian Ocean (with an apparent ongoing shift to a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (warmer west then east)) and North Atlantic sea surfaces are considerably warmer in 2026 and that is known to significantly increase the global extreme weather impacts of an El Niño. 

The total global economic losses from the 2026-2027 El Niño are variously predicted to be between about 1 and 7 trillion U.S. dollars including over the ensuing 5 year period - and one highly publicized recent prediction of resulting human fatalities of 450,000. I suspect the losses will be …
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Hugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The show will go on.
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Hugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Lovely. Illustrative image: Humanity
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
We're at a stage right now where every news program could and should consist of nothing besides all the avenues of collapse piling up and closing in on us. Not sugar coated, hopium soaked slop, just plain reality laid bare. None of it is going to end well. We're FUCKED!!
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Serene Doomer @serenaribena.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
'”The Japanese Embassy was clearly informed that the deployment of this type of weaponry on Japanese territory, even under the pretext of military exercises, is absolutely unacceptable, as it poses a threat to Russia’s security,” Zakharova told a briefing…' www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/6...
chinadailyasia.com
Russia warns Japan over US Typhon missile deployment
Russia has warned of possible countermeasures over Japan's deployment of US Typhon missile systems, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
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Lyle Lewis @race2extinct.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
A bat once caught regularly at a desert spring became extraordinarily rare.
No one watched the population collapse.
It simply stopped showing up. New Essay: The Bats That Stopped Showing Up
lylel.substack.com
The Bats That Stop Showing Up
At Quitobaquito Springs, a disappearing bat reveals how much can vanish before we learn to measure it
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Lyle Lewis @race2extinct.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
We still want wilderness. We just don’t want uncertainty, danger, discomfort, getting lost, bad weather, unexpected wildlife, or anything else we can’t control. Fortunately, there’s a package for that. New essay: Wilderness Experiences™: Choose Your Level of Reality
lylel.substack.com
Wilderness Experiences™: Choose Your Level of Reality
For most of human history, wilderness was defined by what it lacked: roads, communication, predictability, and safety.
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Marc Dissents @marcdissents.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
It's odd, how this is still interpreted as some "Chicken Little"/ "Cassandra" reaction, by so many. It begs the question(s), "which part of 'unsustainable' is eluding you? and what 'other' outcome do you imagine for this unsustainable arrangement?"
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Food companies wanted deregulation. Now there are dozens of recalls across the country. Mining companies wanted deregulation. Now the black lung rate is at a 45-year high. Financial companies wanted deregulation. Now financial losses to fraud are the highest on record. Noticing a pattern?
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Ian@collapseaphorisms @collapseaphorisms.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Oh look... #collapse youtu.be/ePHlznQJCZ0?...
youtu.be
The Worst Crisis in 1 Million Years
YouTube video by Facing Future
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 29/08/2026
For those who have been waiting for an update, Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures have been treading water at daily record "super El Niño" levels (≈2.6°C above the 1991-2020 baseline) for most of August. The El Niño peak in the latest CFSv2 model run is now about 4.1°C.
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
This should not be difficult to grasp.
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Hugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Mother's milk is for babies of the same species, not adults of another species. Growing up and developing means giving up dairy. Humans are old babies who don't want to grow up (grow forever). We steal all babies and give them plant replacement milk so that that we can steal their mother's milk.
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The Final Report @firehorse249791.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
27.08.2026 France '🔴 Catastrophe on the A36 near Besançon (25) where several thousand motorists were stuck under the supercell thunderstorm this Thursday evening! Numerous vehicles were immobilized due to windshields riddled with giant hailstones!' Météo Franc-Comtoise [x] #FossilFuels
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OgreDragon @ogredragon.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
that is correct... Mother Nature will fix our ass... meanwhile.. it looks like the 1973 Movie " Soylent Green" is really a documentary ( it was based on 2022 time line) ...so they missed by a few years.. but they got the details correct.. substack.com/@ogredragon/...
substack.com
2026: The FAMINE no one is talking about
( Soylent Green ( the Movie was based on 2022.. ) is starting to look like our next Documentary.
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
New ways to say we're fucked, what a difference a day makes. "This is nothing short of cataclysmic. The global extreme weather impacts through mid 2027 will be catastrophic." "We are in runaway warming." www.facebook.com/share/1EwLfa...
Subsurface equatorial Pacific water temperature anomalies for the date in the El Niño warm water plume now approach + 12 degrees C (+ 22 degrees F) at 100 meters depth at 115 W longitude or 1,600 km (2,600 km) west of the Galapagos (Image 1). That is about + 5 degrees C (+ 9 degrees F) higher than ever recorded anywhere at any depth in any El Niño warm water plume. 

Maximum Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date now reach + 5.8 degrees C (+ 10.4 degrees F) just west of the Galapagos (Image 2) and to the southeast at 4.9 degrees South latitude now reach + 6.4 degrees C (+ 11.5 degrees F) 100 km off the northernmost coast of Peru (Image 3).

The strongest El Niño prior to 2026 was 8 to 11 zettajoules of anomalous upper ocean heat content with an average SSTA of about + 2.6 degrees C in the ENSO 3.4 region of the central/ eastern equatorial Pacific. 

Based on the latest subsurface heat values this El Niño could reach a + 5 degrees C (+ 9 degrees F) average SSTA in ENSO 3.4 which yields a staggering 38 zettajoules of anomalous upper ocean heat content which is 4 times the anomalous upper ocean heat content of any prior El Niño on record. This is nothing short of cataclysmic. The global extreme weather impacts through mid 2027 will be catastrophic.

The 2023-24 jump in global average 2 meter height air temperature of + 0.3 degrees C was associated with 16 zettajoules of upper ocean heat content increase. So using a rough comparative calculation we are looking at about + 0.7 degrees C of global average 2 meter height air temperature increase in 2027. And that doesn’t include air temperature rise from further marine heat wave intensification around the world. 

We are in runaway warming.
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epicurious.bsky.social @epicurious.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The world’s massive interconnected ocean currents, like the streams of air above us, have had relatively fixed patterns that delivered our relatively reliable weather/seasons. When do you plant if there’s no spring? We broke everything but no one’s talking about it.
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OgreDragon @ogredragon.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Translation: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulationis" is Breaking or broken.. meaning weather changes of biblical proportions.. Like Hot spots that don't seem to move... wet spots, dry spots all stagnant... this was predicted.. in fact a Year ago the SMOC inverted: substack.com/@ogredragon/...
substack.com
SMOC for Us dummies
Climate Change is about to get Very real for the World
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I'm running out of ways to say we're fucked. www.facebook.com/share/1PRqE1...
The Gulf of Mexico’s average SST is now at a record high for the date while the Gulf Stream is making a hard right turn off New England and heading nearly due east before entirely disappearing from the surface far to the SW of Ireland. It normally travels much further north and maintains much more flow.
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
One would almost think our life support were going to kill us in very short order. Well, it's going to. 💀🌏💣💀 #kissyourassgoodbye
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Nobody is immune to starvation. If you think this particular super el nino will be a one off you're wrong. Hunger is going to become your constant companion much sooner than later, at least for a while. #kissyourassgoodbye www.facebook.com/share/p/1HVg...
We are going to see this spread to other parts of the world along with catastrophic flooding in other areas over the next 12 months as the record intensity and size El Niño releases its heat to the atmosphere. It will likely be the biggest annual global agricultural downturn on record.
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Prof Bill McGuire @profbillmcguire.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I hesitate to flag this again, but you might have missed it first time round @aaronbastaani.bsky.social @novaramedia.com www.youtube.com/watch?v=ee9f...
youtube.com
Natural Disaster Expert: Elites Have NO PLAN for Climate Collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Bill McGuire
YouTube video by Novara Media
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Bishop Steiner @bishopsteiner.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
still one of the greatest conversations ever put on TV.
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voidisfull.bsky.social @voidisfull.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Four to ten years left. #kissyourassgoodbye www.facebook.com/share/p/1D21...
IPCC RCP 8.5 Modeling (adopted in 2013 and abandoned in 2026) of Northern Hemisphere Biomes and Sea Ice Coverage at 0 degrees C (1979-2000), + 1 C (2025), + 2 C (2050, + 3 C (2075) and + 4 degrees C (2100) of global warming above 1979-2000 (images).

We will likely reach + 2 C above an 1850-1900 baseline at least temporarily next year (2027) due largely to the record intensity and size El Niño. At + 2 C Arctic sea ice coverage quickly falls below 1 M square km which could also be triggered by the same happening first in Antarctica this coming austral summer. Once those two events occur we quickly go to virtually zero ice cover in both polar regions and atmospheric warming accelerates dramatically due to much greater heat absorption by the ice free oceans and due to other feedbacks like further cloud losses and cloud dimming. From there we would likely reach + 3 C by 2040 and + 4 C by 2050. Extinction is possible at just + 3 C and likely at + 4 C. 

We have only about 4 to 10 more years of habitable climate.
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George Tsakraklides @tsakraklides.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
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Climate Tracker @climate.skyfleet.blue · 22/08/2026
Firefighters sound alarm as US faces critical staffing shortage: ‘We don’t have enough people’ #Climate
theguardian.com
Firefighters sound alarm as US faces critical staffing shortage: ‘We don’t have enough people’
Firefighters describe being pushed to limit by a brutal wildfire season, with key leadership roles going unfilled.
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George Tsakraklides @tsakraklides.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
“Our civilisation is a shooting star. It shines very bright, and then it disappears” youtu.be/l8ratLmH_qY?...
youtu.be
George Tsakraklides interview - WAF 2026
YouTube video by World Adaptation Forum
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Extreme Temperatures Around the World @extremetemps.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
MIDDLE EAST RECORD HEAT Record heat never ends in the MIddle East. Widespread MINIMUMS >30C (up to 37C) even at 1000/1500m asl In particular,the MIn of 32.0C at Bisha (1160m asl),SAUDI ARABIA, was the highest ever recorded in August Fierce heat next days >50C again for 10 days!
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The Final Report @firehorse249791.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
[Switzerland] Retreating Glaciers Are Taking Entire Worlds With Them www.miragenews.com/retreating-g... #FossilFuels #Meat #Dairy #Collapse #Climate #Europe
miragenews.com
Retreating Glaciers Are Taking Entire Worlds With Them
Some 40% of Switzerland's glacial reserves have disappeared in the past 25 years. That means the country is losing not just a water and energy
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere and on Aug 14, 2026, the average temperature was 11.7°C or 53.06°F, the highest temperature on record for that day. Meanwhile, El Niño is strengthening; the peak, expected in end 2026, could devastate Antarctic sea ice. arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica...
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Serene Doomer @serenaribena.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
'US refineries taking in half of Venezuela’s oil output… Under Secretary of Energy Kyle Haustveit said more than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) are now moving from Venezuela to the US out of national output of roughly 1.25 million bpd.' www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/...
aljazeera.com
US refineries taking in half of Venezuela’s oil output, official says
US official says Venezuela is sending 500,000 of its 1.25 million barrels per day output to Gulf Coast refineries.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 18/08/2026
Quick El Niño update. The most recent Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature for August 17th was 2.73°C above the 1991-2020 average. This marked the 80th consecutive day setting a new record daily high, and was 0.92°C above the previous record for the day set back in 1997.
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Extreme Temperatures Around the World @extremetemps.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
ENDLESS RECORD HEAT IN MEXICO Since the first day of 2026,records have fallen every day in Mexico Today,Arriaga just broke its record of August highest temperature with 40.6C after breaking those of The High max and High min of every month of this year and all previous 3 years
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
In this case I guess I'm adjusting my expectation to 5.5°C. I don't see how civilization as we know it continues much past 2035. Population collapse is just around the corner at this rate.
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Micah Warren @micahwarren.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Republicans really do love the stupid.
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
❄️ 🌀 Science! Read to end.. Like a hot knife through butter, the radar beam is blocked and the storm’s reflectivity is sliced in half by Hawaii’s huge mountain range as Hurricane LaLa’s Eyewall makes a direct hit on the South Tip of the Big Island of #Hawaii (The first one in 150 years+)… 1/
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 16/08/2026
Yesterday I showed how global sea ice cover has taken a rapid tumble, so here's a closer look at that change in #Antarctic sea ice. It's currently the 2nd lowest extent on record for the date. See more at zacklabe.com/antarctic-se.... Data from @nsidc.bsky.social.
Line graph time series of 2026's daily Antarctic sea ice extent compared to 1981-2010 climatological statistics. The graph shows the seasonal cycle, and ice-free conditions are indicated at 1 million square kilometers. Sea ice is currently below average for mid August.
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Lyle Lewis @race2extinct.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Every Colorado River state is still pursuing economic growth. The conflict isn’t between states. It’s between a finite river and the assumption that growth can remain infinite. We can print unlimited money. We can’t print another Colorado River.
usatoday.com
Get paid to use less water? New plan aims to help save Colorado River
The program isn't the first to offer money in exchange for using less water. But it comes at a critical time for the river.
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manita @manita41176347.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
almost over..
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Al Jazeera English @aljazeera.com · 13/08/2026
Europe swelters in latest wave of extreme heat aje.news/hq5q3m
Europe swelters in latest wave of extreme heat
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Dumbfounded. These Ocean Temps are WILD! Surface ocean temps departure from normal. The Tropical Eastern Pacific El Niño region is +8-12°F. And we still have months of warming ahead of us! We have reached this intensity 3 months ahead of any other El Niño on record. It’s in its own Universe.
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The Final Report @firehorse249791.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
[Wales] Major incident declared in Llandovery www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n... #FossilFuels #Meat #Dairy #Collapse #Climate #Wales #UK
walesonline.co.uk
Heat cancels trains and fire crews battlewildfires across Wales
Fire crews are tackling a number of wildfires across Wales as the country experiences the fifth heatwave of the summer
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Enough is enough, this guy needs to go. For that matter we have to tell the Trump administration if they don't need us that's fine. Shut down all mutual trade. We export many commodities only to import exactly the same things, stop it. www.ourcommons.ca/petitions/en...
Diplomacy requires respect, not threats of annexation and interference in our elections. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has repeatedly crossed the line, and Canadians have had enough. 🇨🇦

We are calling on the Government of Canada to formally declare him persona non grata, address this blatant disregard for diplomatic protocol, and launch a parliamentary review into foreign interference.

It is time to stand up for our sovereignty. Let's make our voices heard and send a clear message: we want him gone. 🚫👇

https://www.ourcommons.ca/petitions/en/Petition/Sign/e-7531

#StandWithCanada #CdnPoli #CanadianSovereignty #DiplomacyMatters
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 11/08/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 11, 2026 ~ Godzilla! "No matter how you slice it, we're way up there already. And this event is nowhere near done strengthening, if any of the predictive models have anything to say about it." www.youtube.com/live/0THLEMo...
youtube.com
"Super" El Niño update: The latest regarding a potentially historic event and its implications
YouTube video by Weather West
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
So, what John's really saying is we're fucked. 70% increase over the record heat plume 3 months before it's expected peak? Duck and cover. www.facebook.com/share/1JdgaK...
Subsurface water temperature anomalies for the date are nearing + 11 degrees C (+ 20 degrees F) in the equatorial warm water plume of El Niño at 100 meters depth at about 118 degrees West longitude or about 1,000 km (600 miles) west of the Galápagos Islands. 

The total excess heat content of this El Niño warm plume/ pool is now 70% greater than the previous record in the 1997-98 El Niño. 

The global weather and climate impacts through boreal spring will be catastrophic. I think we will have a “Double Blue Ocean Event” (sea ice in each polar region dropping below 1 M square km) during 2027 which will lurch the planet into massively accelerating atmospheric warming. 

The global uppermost ocean is simply absorbing way too much heat. Barring rapid global agreement, development, and deployment of Solar Radiation Management there is no going back.Subsurface water temperature anomalies for the date are nearing + 11 degrees C (+ 20 degrees F) in the equatorial warm water plume of El Niño at 100 meters depth at about 118 degrees West longitude or about 1,000 km (600 miles) west of the Galápagos Islands. 

The total excess heat content of this El Niño warm plume/ pool is now 70% greater than the previous record in the 1997-98 El Niño. 

The global weather and climate impacts through boreal spring will be catastrophic. I think we will have a “Double Blue Ocean Event” (sea ice in each polar region dropping below 1 M square km) during 2027 which will lurch the planet into massively accelerating atmospheric warming. 

The global uppermost ocean is simply absorbing way too much heat. Barring rapid global agreement, development, and deployment of Solar Radiation Management there is no going back.
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I try not to be political but c'mon, this is great.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/08/2026
The Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (preliminary) is at 29.65°C, as of August 9th, the 72nd consecutive record daily high, on its way to crushing the previous record high of 29.82°C, set November 17th, 2015. The Nino 3.4 anomaly currently sits at 2.77°C above the 1991-2020 average.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Adaptation my ass! Global warming will further accelerate with non-linearities ramping up fast I give our civilization under the current regime max 10 years Two more massive temperature jumps to go We will run down 2 °C with all these feedbacks with the oceans taking the lead #climate #earth
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🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦 @doomrick.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
I recently commented on a facebook post, I've shared the link here. Below are a few screenshots that give a pretty good overview of the widespread lack of understanding regarding climate breakdown and accelerating collapse. Any thoughts from fellow doomers? www.facebook.com/share/p/1E3e...
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