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dereksagehorn.bsky.social

@dereksagehorn.bsky.social
2.2K followers 406 following 4.8K posts

Interested in figuring out how to build better housing, transit and cities. Construction lawyer; advocate for East Bay for Everyone. Oakland.

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Reposted by @dereksagehorn.bsky.social
sick public transit, gloria @seung.bsky.social · 7h
read your editorial. thought it was awful. question: why does the editorial consist of virtually no info on Caltrain, which serves more stations in San Jose than BART, and is planning for the same closures/cuts as BART should RTM fail to pass? shouldn't San Jose voters know RTM impacts Caltrain too?
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Robert Prinz @prinzrob.bsky.social · 11h
This part is just flat out, blatantly 100% wrong. An MTC report published in May detailed how BART has trimmed over $1 Billion in expenses since 2019. mtc.ca.gov/sites/defaul...
“If BART wants more tax revenue despite reduced ridership, it should first show good-faith effort to meaningfully trim ongoing expenses. It has refused to do so.”
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alex block ⚽️ @alexblock.bsky.social · 11h
The (wrong) idea that because the costs involve labor, they aren’t actually fixed…
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 11h
Anti RTM pundits purport to be green eye shade realists about BART’s budget but consistently out themselves as fiscally illiterate. BANG’s Dan Borenstein acknowledges BART has high fixed costs - but then pivots to headcount - as if BART staff maintaining ROW, power supply and stations don’t count.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 13h
San Francisco announces change to allow 4-6 stories single stair with secondary exterior egress requirements. [gift link to Chron] www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/arti...
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California Transit Nerd @catransitnerd.bsky.social · 18h
We are all looking at the blue line right where they’ve effectively not increased spending for operations compared to 2019 They run a substantialy more useful service for the non 9-6 commuter now with the every day 5 line 20 min service It’s a metro there’s an insanely high floor of fixed costs.
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Cliff Bargar @cliffbar.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Not the funniest part of this but from a quick Google search it looks like Shake Shack's annual operating expenses are about twice that amount
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Did Bob Poole even bother to read the Brightline bankruptcy documents, restructuring docs or industry analysis prior to publishing this? reason.org/transportati...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Not surprised that incumbent industry players, including entitlement holders, discount the efficacy of reforms to planning in a discretionary (ie moated) system.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Canvassing with @valencia4actransit.bsky.social
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"This "cost-rent" model, common in Europe and previously used in the US, comes with important trade-offs, but its appeal lies in being simple, scalable, and effective at supporting affordability over time." www.jchs.harvard.edu/calendar/fin...
jchs.harvard.edu
Financing Cost-Rental Housing: A Low-Cost-of-Capital Approach to Supporting Below-Market Rents
Chris Herbert will discuss a new paper proposing a federal program that would provide below-market-rate debt to public, private, and non-profit developers who agree to limit rents and prices to levels...
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工an Monroe 🚰 @eean.dev · 07/10/2026
LLMs won't be transformative until they create a solution to the Dunning-Kruger effect
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Fischer 🛠️🚇 @fischer.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I think this is clearly what’s gone wrong in the oregon governor’s race. voters are wavering on kotek because they’re not sure she can get single stair done and she clearly needs to reassure the electorate on this issue
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Reposted by @dereksagehorn.bsky.social
Bryan Culbertson 🥄 @bryanculbertson.com · 07/10/2026
This post by Devon has polluted the index so LLMs used by tech VCs are now returning these completely made up numbers from it instead of the accurate numbers from the NTD or even from BART's reply to correct it The information environment has been decimated by LLMs xcancel.com/devonzuegel/...
twitter post by Devon:

Omg. In FY'24, BART's average cost per trip was $48.76

Fares cost $5.18, so that means each trip had a $43.58 subsidy 😅

I'm extremely pro-transit, but that is a shocking number!The industry standard for this would be to rely on NTD data, since it can be compared across US operators. 

BART's operating cost per unlinked trip in NTD is about $16. Our operating cost per passenger mile (the state we think best captures the value that BART delivers to the rider) is about $1.15 per mile. Public investment (the cost after netting out the passenger fare) is about $0.88 per mile.

On both operating cost per passenger mile and public subsidy per passenger mile, BART compares favorably with our US heavy rail operator peers.

We don't typically include capital expenditures in this calculation for a particular fiscal year, because those capital investments last for decades. 

For analyses that do include capital costs, recognize that to include both capital expenditures and metrics like depreciation/amortization/debt service in a long time series is to count the same investments twice.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Not a fan of this tendency of San Francisco venture capitalists to use LLMs to confirm their priors that BART has really inefficient service per rider or operating hour and then using that confirmation bias output to justify their opposition to RTM.
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CAHSR's Strongest Soldier @emoscientist.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Peak-only service costs more to operate per train. You have to spend a lot on non-revenue trips (hauling the train to the yard with no passengers) and paying for crew hotel stays. So cutting lower-ridership midday trains actually saves almost no money
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Reposted by @dereksagehorn.bsky.social
Reed Schwartz @reed-schwartz.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Many great (+ familiar!) Transit Abundance™ ideas in here!
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Reposted by @dereksagehorn.bsky.social
Rebecca Saltzman @rebeccaforec.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Today 33 East Bay elected officials called on AC Transit Board to censure Director Joel Young for substantiated gender-based harassment. AC Transit faces challenges that require a rider focus. That's not possible while Young's misconduct goes unaddressed. Letter: drive.google.com/file/d/1CUpO...
Letter calling on the AC Transit Board to censure Director Joel Young.Letter signers
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Policy proposal from the Build America Caucus gets at some of the issue raised in this paper. www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Did Santa Fe not build Tejon Pass cut off because: A) Division of Highways scared them off B) they couldn’t justify it to their investment committee C) the idea was leverage to get SP to agree to a long term lease and upgrade of Tehachapi Pass D) all of the above?
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
No membership-based YIMBY group in California is supporting Prop 45. The campaign also has zero transit org supporters. Much to consider
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Alfred Twu @alfredtwu.com · 03/10/2026
Bay Area, ballots arrive any day now! Vote Yes on RTM to save transit www.regionaltransitmeasure.com Volunteer to help pass the Regional Transit Measure at luma.com/connectbayarea
regionaltransitmeasure.com
RTM Home
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Has anyone done an evaluation of the planning for Services Express Régionaux Métropolitains to date? www.groupe-sncf.com/en/group/abo...
groupe-sncf.com
Metropolitan Regional Express Services (SERM)
Built around a railway infrastructure, they promise to improve mobility between cities and their suburbs.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Adriana's opponent Joel Young is seven days and counting late filing his legally-required campaign finance disclosures.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
A lot of runway for continued ridership growth since weekend ridership growth is carrying a lot of the load. www.caltrain.com/media/37896/...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I listened to YIMBY Action’s debate on Prop 45 last night. I was struck by how the Yes side advanced absurd, frivolous and obviously wrong interpretation of 45 but also AB 130 with respect to infill, transportation and data centers.
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East Bay for Everyone @eastbayforeveryone.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Single Stair goes to Washington! Winners from the 2025 National Single Stair Design Competition were displayed on the National Mall last week for the HUD Innovative Housing Showcase. www.huduser.gov/portal/ihs.h... CC @lci-la.bsky.social
singlestair.com
2025 National Single Stair Architectural Design Competition
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Wasn't tracking this but Governor signed AB 2020, which allows HCD to approve proposals from affordable housing developments to shift excess receipts/excess reserves from one project to another. calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/bills/ca_202...
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Californians for Electric Rail @calelectricrail.org · 26/09/2026
We had a packed house last night for Transit Costs Reform Happy Hour LA! We're building a movement for abundant transit we can afford. Thanks to @nickandert.bsky.social for helping make this happen.
Dozens of people listening to Nick Andert speak Packed room of people listening to Nick Andert speak Nick Andert speaking Small group of people chat over beers
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工an Monroe 🚰 @eean.dev · 26/09/2026
dear Lord I've seen what you've done for others and I want that for me
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Canvassing for @valencia4actransit.bsky.social with @georgespies.bsky.social this morning at Grand Lake farmers market. Come find us.
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Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
@nickandert.bsky.social breaking it down at the @calelectricrail.org event at Union Station right now.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The new Canadian Federal permitting bill allows for One Decision final approval but also for early works (ie utility relocations) prior to final plan approval. gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Reading the draft Oregon State Rail Plan. Too bad it's not service-led, but there is a more honest evaluation of how the fragmented state capital funding programs drive delay and costs. www.oregon.gov/odot/RPTD/RP...
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East Bay for Everyone @eastbayforeveryone.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The backers of Prop 45 are counting on the public not being able to tell infill homes near transit from building new roads into wildland / fire areas for sprawl's sake. EB4E recommends a NO on 45 this fall. eastbayforeveryone.org/2026/03/05/s...
eastbayforeveryone.org
Vote No on Prop 45: Streamlining Sprawl/Freeways is NOT Pro-Housing | East Bay for Everyone
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Infrastructure Weak @infrastructureweak.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This looks like an early example of the international best practice, circulation planning-based bus priority measures that @chittimarco.bsky.social details in the Transit Priority Atlas. tpa.transitcosts.com
"Busway Turn Map" of Tremont Ave in the Bronx. The busway extent is a one-mile stretch of Tremont, across ~11 one-way cross streets. Cars are permitted to enter Tremont by turning right or left from the one-way cross streets approaching it, or to cross Tremont on the same streets. However, they must turn right to exit Tremont at the first opportunity along it. 

Source:
https://newyorkyimby.com/2026/08/construction-begins-on-tremont-avenue-busway-in-tremont-the-bronx.html
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Rebecca Saltzman @rebeccaforec.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
What’s extra absurd about this is that in my 12 years on the BART Board - heading a rail agency - no BART director ever attended an out of country rail conference. If AC Transit directors really want to attend rail conferences, there are plenty in the US.
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Interesting paper on lessons for American rail and transit corridor planning/permitting from EU member states + Canada. Similar to Conference of Services, these administrative processes concentrate participation, input and decision-making. tobin.yale.edu/sites/defaul...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Noticing a correlation where social democratic big city mayoral candidates who embrace land use reform, single stair reform and transit priority for buses tend to be popular…
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Randolph Ruiz @aaaarchitecture.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Everyone supportive of transit in California should watch this. I have a lot of respect for the expertise Nick has developed on transit project delivery. He is a great communicator and believes better things are possible. I hope his work makes an impact.
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Rebecca Saltzman @rebeccaforec.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The AC Transit Board has refused to hold Director Young accountable so let’s make some noise and urge them to censure him. Join me to make public comment at the AC Transit Board meeting tomorrow, Wednesday at 5 pm, 1600 Franklin St, Oakland or on Zoom: actransit.legistar.com/MeetingDetai...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Coming up on Tuesday luma.com/f4cpkuv0
luma.com
Transit Costs Reform Happy Hour · Luma
Do you want cost effective transit service improvements? Want to learn how to bring down the costs of new subways, rail electrification and transit…
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East Bay for Everyone @eastbayforeveryone.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
East Bay for Everyone has published our endorsements of local candidates in Berkeley, Oakland, Emeryville, Alameda, San Leandro, BART, AC Transit and of course YES on the Regional Transit Measure! eastbayforeveryone.org/2026/09/21/e...
eastbayforeveryone.org
EB4E 2026 General Election Endorsements | East Bay for Everyone
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I wonder where the anti RTM, Committee for Affordable Transit will be having their events and how they’re going to get there. oaklandside.org/2026/09/18/r...
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Anthropic donating $250k to the Regional Transit Measure has scandalized a lot of the opposition. It seems straightforward to me. The AI industry is highly concentrated in FiDi, which depends on BART, Muni and Caltrain for job access.
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Sam Gould @form67.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I know AC Transit reliability has been bad recently, but this is just unacceptable @therealjeanwalsh.bsky.social
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The kind of schedule that gets proposed when the policy environment dictates agencies plan service around finding a use for already purchased hydrogen trains instead of service-led business cases. granicus-aasmp-peak-files.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/atta...
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Alfred Twu @alfredtwu.com · 18/09/2026
Meanwhile condo and townhouse prices in Berkeley haven't really changed. It's all land value that's going up. We ought to modify our transfer taxes to be a Land Value Increment Tax like what Taiwan does. bayeast.org/wp-content/u...
bayeast.org
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dereksagehorn.bsky.social @dereksagehorn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Letter to the Chron from @josh.hawn.xyz on this topic.
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Bryan Culbertson 🥄 @bryanculbertson.com · 16/09/2026
AC Transit staff even presented to the board last year that bike lane projects in Oakland and in Alameda had no effect on bus speeds or reliability
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