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David Nir

@davidnir.com
13K followers 23 following 2.6K posts

Publisher, @the-downballot.com. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com Our site: the-downballot.com

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Reposted by David Nir
The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 9h
Michigan will decide in November whether to hold the nation's first constitutional convention since the 1980s. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has scheduled a similar referendum for his state for April—but his fellow Republicans argue he lacks this power and this vote shouldn't happen.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Voters in two states could soon choose to rewrite their constitutions
Michigan will hold a vote this fall, while Oklahoma is embroiled in a legal battle
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Joe Sudbay @joesudbay.bsky.social · 7h
this is fascinating deep dive worth reading for many reasons, but especially to learn the key role played by former US Rep. Bob Bauman, "a closeted gay man who was widely considered one of the most conservative members of Congress"
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Aaron Fritschner @fritschner.bsky.social · 22h
[SENATOR ERIC SCHMITT]: So you’re telling me under oath that you’ve never spoken with an Attorney General nominee? [JACK SMITH]: No, I don’t think— [SCHMITT]: WELL THEN *unveils poster* please explain this picture of you with Matt Gaetz! [SMITH]: That is Media Matters senior fellow Matt Gertz
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026
Probably time to rewatch Deadwood for a refresher on bygone/made-up slang. I'm thinking "hoopleheads."
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
And once again, real harms imposed on real people must be set aside until after real damage is done in order to privilege the unproven right of Trump to impose those harms
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Quite the flag from @jacobbiba.bsky.social. Ad from Republican in #NC11: Jennifer Balkcom: Mom raised us on her own. She taught us to be strong. And when someone broke into our house, she shot 'em. Mom: You break into my house, you're going to get shot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1lD...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in Montana
A key Supreme Court race—and a plan to protect judicial independence—are both on the ballot
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026
Lemon, I'm sorry, but Jenna has become a huge star for this network.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026
And if you're curious as to why stations can be held liable for defamatory claims in third-party ads but *not* in candidate ads, we did an explainer earlier this year! It all goes back (believe it or not) to a Senate race in North Dakota ... in 1956 www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Normally, broadcasters can be sued for airing defamatory material—even advertising created by others—since stations are regarded as “publishers” of any such advertisements. A 1959 Supreme Court case, however, gave broadcasters immunity when it comes to candidate ads.

Three years earlier, a North Dakota TV and radio station, WDAY, had allowed the Democratic and Republican candidates running for the U.S. Senate to both air speeches shortly before Election Day. An independent candidate, Arthur Townley, then demanded—and received—the same opportunity.

In his address, Townley charged that his rivals “take orders from Communist controlled Democrat Farmers Union” and claimed the organization wanted to “establish a Communist Farmers Union Soviet right here in North Dakota.”

The Farmers Union then sued both Townley and WDAY for defamation, but WDAY argued that because it was obligated to give Townley equal time under the Communications Act, it could not be held liable. The Supreme Court ultimately agreed, setting a nationwide precedent that holds to this day.

(Townley, incidentally, never responded to the lawsuit and won less than 1% of the vote.)
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026
Here's the ad in question, by the way, in case you hadn't seen it yet.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026
Marshall on Marshall:
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
In theory, Hamilton himself could held be liable for defamation, but even if so—huge, huge "if"—any recompense for Marshall would be years down the road (following extensive, expensive litigation). Most importantly, it would *not* result in the ad getting taken off the air before Election Day.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
This move will only draw more attention to the story. Takedown notice sometimes succeed in removing third-party ads b/c stations may conclude the risks of a defamation suit are too high. But they're immune from liability for defamation for *candidate* ads, which this one is. #StreisandEffect
kansasreflector.com
Roger Marshall alleges defamation in new ad about former Kansas patient arrested while in debt • Kansas Reflector
Lawyers for U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican running for reelection, sent his opponent a cease-and-desist letter demanding the Democrat stop airing an ad featuring one of the senator’s former pa...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
The newsletter in question:
paulkrugman.substack.com
Booms, Bombs and Bonds: Interest Rates, Part I
What’s driving interest rates higher?
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
Quite the chart flagged by @pkrugman.bsky.social in his newsletter yesterday, created by Columbia Business School Prof. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
It's remarkable, as @gregsargent.bsky.social points out, that the very same areas that prompted grandiose talk of a Trump-driven realignment immediately following 2024 now represent turf where Trump's brand is at its weakest—and has put seats in play for Democrats. newrepublic.com/article/2158...
Trump carried North Carolina’s 11th by nearly 10 points, and he carried Texas’s 15th by nearly 18 points. The North Carolina district is in the western part of the state, deep in Appalachian Trump country. The Texas district is in one of the border areas that Trump dominated, prompting talk of a major realignment among Latino voters.

He’s now deeply underwater in places just like these. Indeed, in a statement, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC says its polling is showing Trump’s approval sinking “especially in districts Trump won by over 10 percent.” But you don’t have to take Democrats’ word for it: Note that Trump’s own Super PAC and its affiliates are sinking money into shoring up both the North Carolina and Texas districts.

For these to be serious toss-ups suggests extraordinary deterioration in Trump’s standing among many different demographics, from noncollege and rural whites to the Hispanic voters that defected to Trump in 2024. And there’s other evidence that Trump’s collapse is a big factor in these districts, too.

The Cook Political Report, for instance, also shifted Florida’s 27th district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican—hard for Democrats to win, but not impossible.  Recall that the GOP congresswoman who represents it, Maria Elvira Salazar, just ran a direct-to-camera ad denouncing Trump for his “betrayal” of Latinos who supported him. This wouldn’t be happening unless he’s cratering in this district as well—after Trump carried it by nearly 15 points. It’s now at least within reach for Democrats on a very, very good election night.
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Trump is raging at news orgs for refusing to cover his reception of Xi after he banned three from the White House. The real lesson here: When institutions join together to resist his abuses of power it actually works, sending him into a helpless fury. New from me: newrepublic.com/article/2158...
newrepublic.com
Trump’s Angry Tirade Over Failing Press Ban Reveals His Achilles’ Heel
Trump is furious that news organizations are fighting back against his vile efforts to punish their colleagues—because collective resistance to his authoritarianism actually works.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Fort Worth's Tarrant County was long a bastion for Texas Republicans up and down the ballot. Alisa Simmons has the chance to become its first Democratic leader since 1986 in a contest that could impact her party's statewide fortunes.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Texas Democrats campaign for control of battleground county
The race to lead once-red Tarrant County could have big implications statewide
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
I already have the technology! You can subscribe to my newsletter instead. We’re about to change our name to “Negative WaPo Subscription”! www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
the-downballot.com
Subscribe to The Downballot
Covering every election, from kickoff to call. Click to read The Downballot, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 27/09/2026
It’s very unusual to see the Maine media take this sort of approach toward Collins. The headline alone reveals a great deal.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Here's a graphic that does a better job of conveying the point than my original post: even by the (insane) standards of the first Trump administration, #SCOTUS is receiving—and granting—a truly unprecedented number of applications for emergency relief from the federal government:
A chart that shows the number of emergency applications filed and granted by the Supreme Court during each presidency dating back to George W. Bush, with the data annualized to show the far-higher frequencies since 2017, but especially during the Trump I and Trump II administrations.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 25/09/2026
Oh yeah the NYC tabs will do heds like, “Perps Nabbed in Midtown Drug Slay: Cops,” which is similarly amusing.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 25/09/2026
It’s a weird use of the colon found in tabloids and pretty much nowhere else! But you were absolutely not the only person to get thrown by it.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/09/2026
Oklahoma Republicans gerrymandered this U.S. House seat to make sure they never had a repeat of their shock 2018 loss. But Jena Nelson argues she has a path to unseat Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice—and national Democrats reportedly are listening.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: The site of 2018's biggest shocker might soon draw renewed Democratic interest
The DCCC is reportedly eyeing a seat the GOP gerrymandered after an upset in the last blue wave
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
There's still more to show in the relationship between primary votes and the House popular vote! You can plot the data in graph below as a scatterplot. But a) it's obvious from the original graph this is a bad idea and b) it's not too helpful if you want to predict things. But...
A scatterplot of House popular vote margin versus national primary margin in midterm elections from 1918 to 2022. While there is a decent regression for the data, they fall in a wide band, such that any prediction you try to make will not be helpful. For instance, this year we would expect a House popular vote margin between about R +15 or so and D +12 based on the primary margin of D +11. Not useful at all!
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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 25/09/2026
On Highway to Hill this week, @the-downballot.com's own @davidnir.com joined me and SoRelle to talk about these trends. "Democrats need to be prepared for the possibility of a massive year, even bigger than 2018."
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 25/09/2026
@joshtpm.bsky.social Might be time to start a regular Panic Watch. Note the outlet *and* and the author! www.dailymail.com/debate/artic...
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Adam Schiffer @adamschiffer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is an incredible chart, to the point where I'm trying to figure out what's wrong. I know the data are legit. And you can't argue that it's tautological. How did we not pick up on this tight correlation before?
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 24/09/2026
First thing I thought of
usatoday.com
Petraeus and Broadwell used common e-mail trick
CIA Director David Petraeus and his alleged mistress Paula Broadwell took steps to conceal some of their online messages
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026
The primaries are over, but California's top-two system has set off five competitive Democrat vs. Democrat general elections for House—plus one big race between two Republican incumbents.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: We've got the lowdown on all of California's Democrat vs. Democrat contests
Thanks to the top-two primary, several incumbents still face serious intra-party trouble
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)
Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026
When Democrats flipped #OK05 in 2018, it was a laser-eyes capper to a wild election night. Since then, Republicans have made the seat considerably redder, so if it's back in play ... hoo boy. www.oklahoman.com/story/news/p...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
But wait! www.reuters.com/world/us/whi...
reuters.com
White House denies report US is considering a diesel export ban
A White House official on ​Wednesday denied a news report that ‌said the US is preparing a 90-day ban of diesel exports in an attempt to control record ​prices for fuel widely used by ​farms, trains a...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026
If you haven't checked out this new analysis from us yet, you'll definitely want to. And if you *have*, we'd be extremely grateful if you'd support our work by becoming a paid subscriber—which also comes with cool perks! www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026
New ad reservations, spending reports, and triage maneuvers show a House map that continues to get better for Democrats.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: New moves show House battlefield continuing to shift toward Democrats
Spending, reservations, and triage all point in one direction with six weeks to go
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
I read the whole thing last night. It's ... really good. Very intense, very righteous, and very strong on the law. Practically needed a cigarette after finishing it!
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
This brief by People Not Politicians—asking SCOTUS to affirm its stay that would prevent the Missouri GOP's congressional gerrymander from being used in November—is an incredibly good read.
documentcloud.org
2026.09.22 Von Glahn v. Hoskins Emergency Stay Application
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
Thanks for this detail! Fast readers, those justices are—there were five briefs filed after Kav entered his instructions! www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docke...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
Really scathing demolition of the failure/refusal to convene a three-judge panel in PNP's SCOTUS brief, starting on p. 17 s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28...
s3.documentcloud.org
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills seeing shit like this
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
This is a fantastic reference.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
@slack.engineering Any way to revert link previews to their previous style? Thanks!
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
Editing this piece was a true pleasure, but this was the graph that made me really sit up and go, "WOW!"
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026
In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.
the-downballot.com
Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate
There’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
And as he did with the TRO, Clark went with that weird "any congressional district map other than the 2025 map" formulation, instead of just saying which map to use.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
And FWIW, once again he used the "any congressional district map other than the 2025 map" language.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
And once again he’s done the weird “any map other than the 2025 map” construction, instead of just affirmatively saying which map to use.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
Sure, but they won't get the last word
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
Yes, but they didn't exactly go to great lengths to make their argument
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