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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026

Lemon, I'm sorry, but Jenna has become a huge star for this network.

David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026

And if you're curious as to why stations can be held liable for defamatory claims in third-party ads but *not* in candidate ads, we did an explainer earlier this year! It all goes back (believe it or not) to a Senate race in North Dakota ... in 1956 www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Normally, broadcasters can be sued for airing defamatory material—even advertising created by others—since stations are regarded as “publishers” of any such advertisements. A 1959 Supreme Court case, however, gave broadcasters immunity when it comes to candidate ads.

Three years earlier, a North Dakota TV and radio station, WDAY, had allowed the Democratic and Republican candidates running for the U.S. Senate to both air speeches shortly before Election Day. An independent candidate, Arthur Townley, then demanded—and received—the same opportunity.

In his address, Townley charged that his rivals “take orders from Communist controlled Democrat Farmers Union” and claimed the organization wanted to “establish a Communist Farmers Union Soviet right here in North Dakota.”

The Farmers Union then sued both Townley and WDAY for defamation, but WDAY argued that because it was obligated to give Townley equal time under the Communications Act, it could not be held liable. The Supreme Court ultimately agreed, setting a nationwide precedent that holds to this day.

(Townley, incidentally, never responded to the lawsuit and won less than 1% of the vote.)

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/09/2026

Here's the ad in question, by the way, in case you hadn't seen it yet.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026

Quite the chart flagged by @pkrugman.bsky.social in his newsletter yesterday, created by Columbia Business School Prof. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026

It's remarkable, as @gregsargent.bsky.social points out, that the very same areas that prompted grandiose talk of a Trump-driven realignment immediately following 2024 now represent turf where Trump's brand is at its weakest—and has put seats in play for Democrats. newrepublic.com/article/2158...

Trump carried North Carolina’s 11th by nearly 10 points, and he carried Texas’s 15th by nearly 18 points. The North Carolina district is in the western part of the state, deep in Appalachian Trump country. The Texas district is in one of the border areas that Trump dominated, prompting talk of a major realignment among Latino voters.

He’s now deeply underwater in places just like these. Indeed, in a statement, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC says its polling is showing Trump’s approval sinking “especially in districts Trump won by over 10 percent.” But you don’t have to take Democrats’ word for it: Note that Trump’s own Super PAC and its affiliates are sinking money into shoring up both the North Carolina and Texas districts.

For these to be serious toss-ups suggests extraordinary deterioration in Trump’s standing among many different demographics, from noncollege and rural whites to the Hispanic voters that defected to Trump in 2024. And there’s other evidence that Trump’s collapse is a big factor in these districts, too.

The Cook Political Report, for instance, also shifted Florida’s 27th district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican—hard for Democrats to win, but not impossible. Recall that the GOP congresswoman who represents it, Maria Elvira Salazar, just ran a direct-to-camera ad denouncing Trump for his “betrayal” of Latinos who supported him. This wouldn’t be happening unless he’s cratering in this district as well—after Trump carried it by nearly 15 points. It’s now at least within reach for Democrats on a very, very good election night.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 25/09/2026

@joshtpm.bsky.social Might be time to start a regular Panic Watch. Note the outlet *and* and the author! www.dailymail.com/debate/artic...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026

Thanks for this detail! Fast readers, those justices are—there were five briefs filed after Kav entered his instructions! www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docke...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills seeing shit like this

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026

And as he did with the TRO, Clark went with that weird "any congressional district map other than the 2025 map" formulation, instead of just saying which map to use.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026

Yes, but they didn't exactly go to great lengths to make their argument

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 17/09/2026

So... what happened with this? No further posts on this account, and their stated date(s) have come and gone. x.com/FettermanStaff

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/09/2026

Everything's falling into place

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 15/09/2026

This, from @daveweigel.bsky.social. So. Hard. x.com/daveweigel/s...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 10/09/2026

Narrator: Delay did not work in their favor

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 08/09/2026

You can't rush quality! storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 06/09/2026

I think they meant the stay application before the MO Supreme Court, based on the preceding graf.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 31/08/2026

If true, this would be particularly amusing, because it would mean that Husted is banking on Ramaswamy to lose #OHGov as well. I don't find this too hard to believe. Last year, Gomez reported that Husted had been reluctant to give up his longtime dream of being governor to join the Senate instead.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 31/08/2026

On that last bit: www.politico.com/news/2026/08...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 31/08/2026

At least a couple of recent alleged incidents of politicians/spouses sporting fabulously expensive accessories on the campaign trail. x.com/briantylerco... x.com/against_kim/...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 25/08/2026

One thing I learned long ago is that not every dollar spent in politics is doled out by cold-blooded savants looking to wring out every ounce of partisan advantage. Yes, even a major establishment group like RAGA can spend in NY without really thinking they can win!

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/08/2026

Very strange. The link in the final sentence goes to a polling database, updated the day before this article was published, that includes a poll showing El-Sayed up 6 points. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/16/u...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 11/08/2026

"The national average price for a gallon of gas has never surpassed $4 after Aug. 10" — until now. @politico.com: www.politico.com/newsletters/...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 05/08/2026

You didn't get enough love here for this reference, so here

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 03/08/2026

Reminds me of the time that Eric Cantor celebrated business owners on Labor Day x.com/EricCantor/s...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 31/07/2026

The menorah from the Temple in Jerusalem that Titus looted. I'm absolutely convinced it's in a deep sub-basement in the Vatican somewhere.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 31/07/2026

This is a *seriously* messed up Google preview. It came up when searched the name of a journalist. Sure looks like the *journalist* is in prison, based on this, no? But not remotely—this is from an excerpt of an article she wrote about *someone else* that's featured on her Pulitzer page!

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 30/07/2026

Kind of an amazing headline & subhed from Fox News on its own new poll, which shows Talarico up 51-48 on Paxton. (And yes, this is a for-real new poll, not the old stuff that low-rent accounts have been recirculating since yesterday.) www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 29/07/2026

Nearly every claim here is wrong. ➨ 61% of Republicans support a fetal heartbeat abortion ban (Gallup 2023) ➨ 67% support deporting immigrants w/o criminal records (UMass Amherst 2025) ➨ 37% support same-sex marriage (Gallup 2026) None of this is cherry-picked. Other polls find the same.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/07/2026

And there it is: Tesla's worst single-day drop ever. Down 14.52% at the close—a photo finish!

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/07/2026

I find this sort of take so baffling. Would a Democratic nominee in a safely blue seat rather face three different Dems running as independents who might all split voters unhappy with how she got the nomination, or would they prefer a one-on-one race with a single independent Dem? Surely the former.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/07/2026

I can't stomach Omar's tweet either.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/07/2026

Lee's tweet is still up 4+ hours later. FWIW, the munitions signed by PA Gov. Josh Shapiro—and not NJ Rep. Josh Gottheimer—alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were "display items," according to Reuters. www.reuters.com/fact-check/v...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 21/07/2026

This has to be the feeblest astroturfing I've ever gotten

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 21/07/2026

We covered the race extensively last week. More at the link. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 17/07/2026

And worth noting that in every race where Dems succeeded in elevating a preferred GOP candidate in the primary, it was Dems who won in the general.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/07/2026

My mind is still reeling over the response to this Jeopardy clue. We lost our minds and had to pause for a solid minute after dude guessed “Huffington Post.”

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 15/07/2026

This might seem crazy, but I really wonder if the GOP will even contest #GASen this year. Collins managed to raise just $2 mil during a quarter that included both the primary and the runoff. It would take at least $100 million in outside spending to ... do what exactly? www.ajc.com/politics/202...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 15/07/2026

Spot-on from @politicalwire.com politicalwire.com/2026/07/15/w...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 14/07/2026

Why, pray tell, do other Democrats lack credibility when it comes to this issue? x.com/aseitzwald/s...

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 10/07/2026

This might be my favorite moment

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 09/07/2026

This is precisely what happened to Dan Moraff! Saw a video of Platner and was star struck.

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