iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 5h

10 year old me, when I started playing Civilization II:

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 5h

Thermostatic partisanship is here with a vengeance, which should give pause to anyone thinking about weighting 2026 election polls to party ID, or any proxy thereof.

030

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

NYT really asking the important questions. What would Benjamin Disraeli think about the Eras Tour? What would Virgina Woolf say about cryptocurrency? Does Philip the Navigator have a favorite chocolate chip cookie recipe?

2027738

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The gap between RV and LV favoring Democrats makes sense this cycle. The LV calculation is going to be based, in large part, on ‘22 and ‘24, both bad years for Democrats. This is what we’d expect in any state other than NJ and VA, where we can use the ‘25 gov race.

031

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Reading a 1900 masculinity influencer's book (as you do), and it's a combination of quotes that could come exactly from Andrew Tate and weird 19th century hang-ups (especially about masturbation).

1236

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

These figures are going to be of great interest to my colleagues in the ASA consumption section.

030

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Kathleen Weldon @kathleenweldon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Coded response to open-ended question "what causes tuberculosis", put to those respondents who said it was not "a germ" Other answers from previous page include "inherit it" and "being too cold." But "too much bed sport" is the clear winner here.

Question 2b (Continued)

43 Too much bed sport
44 A hard knook or bang
45 Too much strenous exeroise
46 Too much fast living
47 The way you live
48 Overwork
49 Nervous breakdown
50 Working conditions
51 Overtiredness, fatigue, not enough rest
52 Run down, weak, poor health, loose weight (sic), other diseases

otheR diseAses

054

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It’s not often that I find some innovation in NJ politics to be unequivocally positive, but including “I Voted” stickers in with mail-in ballots (at least in Essex County) is a great idea. (Now I just have to hold on to it for five weeks)

570

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Going with "men insecure in their own masculinity also support Trump" as the explanation

0165

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Teaching public opinion has always meant saying “The President is held accountable for the economy, but actually has very little control over it,” and I resent this administration forcing me to change my lecture notes.

4121

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I really was going to have a quiet evening.

2100

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Spent waaay too long coding whether each party in the ESS was considered to be right-wing populist, and the results are suprising. Not that there's a strong relationship between gender traditionalism and voting for a RWP party, but that the relationship is the same for both men and women.

100

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Contexts Magazine @contexts.org · 23/09/2026

What happens when economic change feels like a threat to masculinity? In Contexts, Dan Cassino examines how men’s political preferences change when the traditional breadwinner role becomes less secure. ➡️ doi.org/10.1177/1536... #Sociology #Masculinity #Gender #PoliticalSociology

069

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Æðelwułf @iamdarkink.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Is poly market gambling? What is mentally deficient with you that you even think it's a real question? Of course it's gambling. It's gambling that's pretending it's based on more serious and interesting ideas. 1/ www.ft.com/content/ec52...

ft.com

Polymarket presses Europe to treat its bets as financial products

US prediction markets platform is seeking to be regulated as a financial services firm rather than under a patchwork of gambling legislation

173

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Sexism is a barrier. But a bigger barrier in 2028 to any woman candidate for President is the fact that many Democratic voters were traumatized by 2024, aren’t sure a woman can win, and don’t want to risk it. Heard *a lot* about this during the NJ Dem Gubernatorial primaries.

250

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Jason Bailey @jasondashbailey.com · 22/09/2026

i'm always saying this

3504

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Don’t pay attention to internals. Ever. I don’t care if they support your priors. They’re being released to try and build a narrative about the campaign. If you’re paying attention, you are being manipulated.

static.klipy.com

The Simpsons: Just Don't Look Song

ALT: The Simpsons: Just Don't Look Song

0110

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Got the chance to chat with Backderf and get amazing sketches in each of the books we bought for the event. I don’t know how he keeps it up for hours a day, over weeks of a book tour, but he was funny, insightful, and very generous with his time (even with a long line of folks waiting!).

020

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

I think we want to be careful about this format. alexandercoppock.com/graham_coppo...

23910

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

This piece does a fantastic job of integrating many of the recent developments in the study of masculinity and politics, while adding some really important pieces (gender and SDO!), and setting up a framework for future research. Great stuff.

010

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Jessica Shortall @jessicashortall.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Every new thing extremely online straight men are doing is FOR OTHER MEN. We didn’t ask for any of it.

2556

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Looking at partisanship by sex over time in the US, and two things are striking: One: the degree to which there's just no durable sex gap in partisanship until 1980. Two: How anomalous men's partisanship since 2020 has been. Look at that red dotted line at the end of the trend!

111

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Interesting tidbit on GOP Rep Salazar's ad criticizing Trump's immigration policies: the language is much stronger in the Spanish language version of the ad than in the English language version.

060

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

It’s young (white) men. New study in @nature.com by @jatucker.bsky.social et al looks at the predictors of white nationalist attitudes across an array of survey data. 🔑 Findings: —5% of white adults hold such views —13.5% of white men age 18-29 —Political ideology matters but it’s not just that

215464

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

“Want to be a better parent? But don’t want to put any effort into it?” is quite the pitch.

040

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

He’s still at 58% with more than 90% in: Delaware is lucky to have him.

060

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Next up for Netflix, an exciting new game show "WILL YOU DELIVER A FATAL ELECTRIC SHOCK?"

1113

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The difference between "A Generic Dem" and the actual Dem who's running is a great measure of candidate recruitment: both positive (Dems are coming out of the woodwork to run) and negative (qualified Republicans are expecting a wave, and biding their time).

020

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

I hate it when I get what's clearly an LLM-written essay turned in for class. Rather than being a collaborator with the student, working with them to help them do better, or cheering them on when they do well, I'm LLM cop, pointing out all of the issues to justify giving them a zero. Hate it.

1192

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Aliki Chapple @commonmugwort.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

the shields!

12310

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

I already have a whole bunch of these, but if you don’t, these are the best prices you’re going to see, and well worth it.

093

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The political problem with Trump trying to brand Democrats as communists is that Americans just don’t find communism as threatening as they used to. Here’s the GSS series asking if a communist should be banned from speaking: up a little since 2020, but not something voters are worried about.

041

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I know a D+10 environment seems nuts, but after a couple cycles in which Republicans did well (22 and 24), LV models are likely to be overestimating, rather than underestimating, Republican turnout in the midterms. So, if D+10 is wrong, it’s likely because it’s too low.

271

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Got what appeared to be a live SMS survey, and was immediately suspicious it was an LLM. Seemingly confirmed when I asked a question off script, and it immediately shut down (waiting for a human to restart, I’d guess). Also, definitely not one from @kwcollins.bsky.social .

101

Reposted by Dan Cassino

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 11/09/2026

Based on 12,000 survey interviews, low-turnout-likelihood Republicans are comparatively anti-Trump, contrary to most analysis and punditry about the group after the 2024 election. Less engaged voters aren’t MAGA, but anti-status-quo www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-11...

gelliottmorris.com

Everyone is wrong about low-turnout voters

They care most about affordability, and disapprove of Trump’s job as president at much higher rate than engaged voters — including among Republicans

914037

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

From the lecture I'm prepping today: this is from 1970. In Connecticut.

Headline reading "Homosexual to Fight Denial of Car License"

140

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

As a general rule, you should be skeptical of any poll that reports decimal places.

2364

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Useful rundown by @the-downballot.com of a minimum standard of what you should expect from public election polls: www.the-downballot.com/p/how-the-do... A lot of (though not complete) overlap with AAPOR standards, but I esp applaud these two sections

0136

Reposted by Dan Cassino

[Christopher M. Federico] @chrispps.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

this is data from a single sample of a larger population, assembled from an online panel based on decisions that are in part specific to this pollster; I would wait to see data aggregated from many other samples from the same population before concluding that Marco Rubio is actually this popular

4122

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

RT if you've never had a tab of ChatGPT open, period.

047

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

The knives have long been out for Caldwell, and if he’s been giving anyone a reason, he’s going to be toast.

050

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Dr Nick Dickinson @nickdickinson.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Paul Verhoeven accidentally becoming the Leni Riefenstahl of 21st century fascism while trying to do the opposite will never not be funny. But I’m honestly not sure who the joke is even on anymore.

25312

Reposted by Dan Cassino

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 05/09/2026

Good article, just out, from the Times. Mentions the public as a thermostat + cyclical nature of party ID. (Stops short of saying the current environment was easy to predict, though that’s true & some of us did!). Covered this on the podcast on Thurs: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

10565125

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I like that you can still see my Arizona roots in there.

120

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · 04/09/2026

aha. yes. i see.

the pepe silvia scene but it says "GENDER ITS ALL GENDER"

232257

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Your New Jersey tax dollars at work.

030

Reposted by Dan Cassino

Jason Kirk @jasonkirk.fyi · 04/09/2026

UMass *losing* 37-21 to a P4 would've been its best result since ... almost beating Liberty in 2024? Beating Army in 2023? Instead UMass won 37-21 lol

015314

Dan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Just sent off a proposal for the book I'm hoping will be coming out in 2028 (aka the g-ddamn future). The editor seemed excited about it, so fingers crossed.

170