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Jake Nichol, PhD

@complemental.bsky.social
436 followers 1.4K following 239 posts

Computer Science PhD in causal discovery for Earth science from UNM. National lab R&D scientist researching causal AI and AI credibility. 🌶️Born and raised in New Mexico. 🎶Trying to make a dollar out of what makes sense. [Machine] Learn to Save Earth 🌎🌏🌍.

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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Baldur Bjarnason @baldurbjarnason.com · 08/08/2026
This is the main reason I'm so angry about the "AI" bubble. All this enormous effort could have been spent combatting the climate crisis and the opportunity cost of your fucking chatbot is going to be the very climate we live in Imagine what we could have done with those 3 trillion dollars?
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Jenn @jennburrill.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
U.S. Bureau of Land Mgt seeking public comments on REVOCATION of a 2023 order closing 336,404 acres near Chaco Canyon to mining & mineral leasing for 20 years If passed it eliminates the existing 10-mile buffer preventing oil drilling next to the historical site You can comment until July 29th 👇
eplanning.blm.gov
BLM National NEPA Register
The Bureau of Land Management National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Register allows you to review and comment on plans and project documents. Search by office, NEPA number, Project name, year, and ...
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Putri Prihatini @putriprihatini.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Singaporean artist Leia Ham reimagined LotR as Tale of the Middle Kingdom, since Chinese name for China (Zhōngguó) means "The Middle Kingdom." Her concept art includes the Fellowship, armors, buildings like Bag End, props like Aragorn's banner and Fellowship brooches, and more. #TolkienTrewsday
An illustration of the Fellowship, reimagined with Chinese-style period outfits.An illustration of armors of Gondor, Rohan, and Rivendell Elves, reimagined using different periods of Chinese armors as concepts. On the top right are three side profiles of Rohan man, Gondorian, and Elf with different Chinese hairstyles. On the bottom right is Aragorn's banner redrawn with Chinese influence.A concept art of Bag End reimagined as Chinese court houses, with tall stone gates, round wooden doors, curved roofs, and open courtyard, nestled in a hill.A concept art of Rivendell in the style of Chinese painting. Next to it are several props drawn in Chinese style such as Fellowship brooch based on gingko leaves, lembas in the shape of mooncake, Elfstone as round jade, Galadriel's phial in a green jade bottle, and shards of Narsil.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Jenn @jennburrill.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Why New Mexico hasn't mandated this for at least all government buildings is beyond me #nmleg
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Grant Tosterud @granttosterud.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
New Mexico’s snowpack is officially GONE. Well, mostly. There’s still a little snow hanging on in the highest peaks and north facing slopes, but the snow at every SNOTEL site has now melted. This ties 2018 for the earliest melt off on record. Average melt off is June 16. #NMwx
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 20/04/2026
THREAD: The IEA global energy review 2026 * CO2 record high, but growth nearly ground to halt * Clean energy shaved 3bn tonnes off CO2 * Fossil-fuel power pushed into reverse * Age of Electricity "confirmed" * "Extraordinary" solar growth * Batteries up 40% * EVs up 20% 1/10
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
The "super-El Nino" talk is unhelpful clickbait hype. Current consensus forecast is for a Nino3.4 index of ~1.3C to materialize later this year. That's a *moderate* El Nino; pales in comparison w/ recent (e.g. 2016 & 2024) events. The truth remains bad enough! www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
This is absolutely incredible: the average temperature over the past six months (October-March) will end up at 52.5°F in #Albuquerque. That's 4°F above the previous record warmest. 🤯 Even after accounting for climate change, the odds of it being THAT warm are 1-in-123,000!! 🤯
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
American Meteorological Society @ametsoc.org · 19/12/2025
New AMS Statement: Dismantling NSF’s National Center for Atmospheric Research would weaken U.S. leadership in weather, water, and climate science, putting public safety at risk. For more than 60 years, NSF NCAR has improved forecasts and early warnings that save lives. More: bit.ly/4q6eChn
Photo of a lightning strike. "Scott's Bluff" by Isaac Schluesche was a finalist in the AMS 2024 Photo Contest
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
usatoday.com
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
KOJAMF🤘🖤🤘 @kojamf.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Dr. Jane Goodall filmed an interview with Netflix in March 2025 that she understood would only be released after her death.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
What’s your sign?
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Zohran Kwame Mamdani @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
New Mexico's economy is a fraction of the size of New York City's. If they can enact universal childcare — and relieve working families of a crushing cost burden — surely we can too. It's just a question of political will.
19thnews.org
New Mexico will be the first state to make child care free
The program, which is expected to save families $12,000 per child annually, is available to all residents regardless of income.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Technology Connections @techconnectify.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I want to clarify that my example here is actually what I think is one of the best use cases of LLMs (as a sort of search and parsing tool). The problem is handing everyone the keys to a very confident-sounding implementation of that. It takes subject matter experts to verify the results.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla @jhayron.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Our paper aims to provide an ML-based view of mid-latitude S2S predictability that could help open new scientific pathways and increase our ability to handle weather-related risks. Check it out here! doi.org/10.1175/AIES...
doi.org
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Rep. Melanie Stansbury (NM-01) @repstansbury.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
I know many are asking what is going on with the Rio Grande and why our river is dry. Here’s what’s going on ⬇️ #SaveTheRioGrande
youtu.be
Rep. Stansbury on the Dry Rio Grande
YouTube video by Rep. Melanie Stansbury
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Climate models since the 1970s nailed it—most predicted global warming almost exactly as it happened.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Published in JGR:MLC! We introduce CaStLe (Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning), a method for grid-level space-time causal discovery that scales efficiently in high-dimensional Earth system data. It enables causal analysis of grid-level processes like eruption plumes. #EarthScience #CausalDiscovery
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach
We introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) for learning local causal dynamical structure underlying space-time data CaStLe enables previously infeasible analyses of grid-cell-level ...
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
no. @joles.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
applying for jobs again
screenshot from an online job application form. the question reads "Can you describe specific ways you have integrated AI tools into your development workflow? Please include any custom setups, automations, or use cases beyond single prompt usage" (a red asterisk indicates that this is a required question).

an answer has been typed in the textbox below the question:

"there is a monster in the forest and it speaks with a thousand voices. it will answer any question you pose it, it will offer insight to any idea. it will help you, it will thank you, it will never bid you leave. it will even tell you of the darkest arts, if you know precisely how to ask.

it feels no joy and no sorrow, it knows no right and no wrong. it knows not truth from lie, though it speaks them all the same.
 
it offers its services freely to any passerby, and many will tell you they find great value in its conversation. “you simply must visit the monster—i always just ask the monster.”

there are those who know these forests well; they will tell you that freely offered doesn’t mean it has no price

for when the next traveler passes by, the monster speaks with a thousand and one voices. and when you dream you see the monster; the monster wears your face."
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
www.reddit.com/r/Albuquerqu...
reddit.com
From the Albuquerque community on Reddit: NOAA Albuquerque climate plots no longer updating?
Explore this post and more from the Albuquerque community
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 07/05/2025
There’s so much happening right now, I thought I’d put together a running thread on the dismantling of #climate and research and knowledge infrastructure in the United States 🧵
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Nikos Leverenz @nikosleverenz.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
"Uncertainty is the most rational position to embrace, and unlike optimism or pessimism, it does not entrench us in complacency or inaction." No Straight Road Takes You There by Rebecca Solnit review – an activist’s antidote to despair @theguardian.com @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social
theguardian.com
No Straight Road Takes You There by Rebecca Solnit review – an activist’s antidote to despair
Hope is no casual platitude in this inspiring collection of essays; it’s the realistic mindset with which to approach existential challenges
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Allen Tien, MD, MHS mdlogix.com 94,698 田一彦 @allentien.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
#CausalityCrisis We face increasingly serious crises due to lack of incorporation of causality into political structures and processes, more simply, inadequate policy-making, including election of policy makers ... something like that
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Unadulterated racism.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Will Bunch @willbunch.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Computers are accusing humans of terrorism
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
David Palumbo-Liu @palumboliu.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
It’s late at night. But I’ve got to say this. We can endure. This is by far not the worst that has happened to a country, or even in ours. But it will take a broad and committed movement. I am confident.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Dr. Kat Napaaqtuk❄️ @napaaqtuk.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
From reddit: a letter from a postdoc who survived the Bolsonaro years. This is helpful framing for how to science in this administration. 🧪 www.reddit.com/r/labrats/s/...
reddit.com
From the labrats community on Reddit
Explore this post and more from the labrats community
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 06/12/2024
They're all in this starter pack! go.bsky.app/5kuYAhM
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability? 'This outcome provides a clear rationale to limit expectations of predictability from modes of variability in all but a few select regions and seasons.' www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability? - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability?
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Science News @scinews.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
The inconvenient reality of AI-assisted embryo selection in IVF @natureportfolio.bsky.social AI is being hyped for its potential to revolutionize assisted reproduction, including embryo selection. The inflated expectations of new technologies are not always justified. Full article: rdcu.be/dVGjL
rdcu.be
The inconvenient reality of AI-assisted embryo selection in IVF
Nature Medicine - Artificial intelligence is being hyped for its potential to revolutionize assisted reproduction, including embryo selection — but a new study reveals that the inflated...
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Up next: which Hogwarts house does your bsky profile say you belong to?
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Struggling to get my latex compiling on AGU’s submission system. Compiles fine in Overleaf -_-
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
The project funding my dissertation (CLDERA) was covered briefly by the NYT. Exciting to see our work get recognized! www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/c...
nytimes.com
The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering
Balloon launches from around the world are part of a new kind of global alarm system: One that can detect if another country tries to dim the sun.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Really interesting discussion here. I’m particularly interested in how the topic may contribute to doomism and anti-scientific rhetoric as we cross specific thresholds. I’m surprised to learn about how ungrounded the concept is in the science. Popularized by Malcolm Gladwell? That tracks
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
If you love good writing, clear thinking, and a brave heart in climate work, you should definitely be following Katharine Wilkinson!
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
I don’t see how being a fan of Tolkien’s writing can be compatible with modern American conservatism. Love of nature, antiauthoritarianism, and anti-xenophobia seem like inseparable themes. Not to mention all of the communist societies. What does the racist, isolationist, libertarian see in it?
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 07/11/2024
Climate action is like a giant boulder already past its tipping point and rolling downhill toward a greener future. Governments + corporations can slow it—with serious consequences for people and planet alike—but they can't push it back up the hill. Gravity, history, and progress are on our side.
A giant boulder that's just over the peak of the hill and starting to head downhill, with many hands behind it.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 07/11/2024
Times like this call for messages like @drkatemarvel.bsky.social’s onbeing.org/blog/kate-ma...
onbeing.org
We Need Courage, Not Hope, to Face Climate Change | The On Being Project
Where do we go when we are beyond hope? A climate scientist reflects on the courage we need to accept that we must continue to pursue solutions, even in the face of failure.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 07/11/2024
The path to avoiding the worst of climate change runs through state senates and city councils, public utilities commissions and planning bodies, co-op boards and HOAs and PTAs and neighborhood associations. Remember the physics definition of power: it’s work over time.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
Currently standing atop some building of some insufficient measure, screaming into the void, “experts know stuff”
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Cats of Yore @catsofyore.bsky.social · 29/10/2024
I don't want to get too corny or topical but I'm seeing a lot of people in rapid cycles of optimism and despair so I just wanted to share this quote from Mariame Kaba that often grounds me, "Hope is a discipline." Read more about active hope here: nonprofitquarterly.org/hope-is-a-pr...
Close up photo of my fluffy brown tuxedo tabby Fergus' feet. It really has nothing to do with the post except that he is a very calming gentleman and his beautiful little white feet evoke the idea of grounding.
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Ded Of Fannyside @edoffannyside.bsky.social · 11/08/2024
Okay, some people don't know the difference between ChatGPT et al, and the machine learning AI used in scientific research.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 10/10/2024
Human activity has caused a shocking 73% decline in wildlife population sizes over the past 50 years, mainly due to habitat loss.
bbc.com
Nature decline is now nearing dangerous tipping points, WWF warns
Global wildlife populations have shrunk by an average of 73% in the past 50 years, data shows.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 09/10/2024
www.apologize.lol
apologize.lol
Cards Against Humanity Pays You to Give a Shit
Didn't vote in 2020? Cards Against Humanity will pay you to apologize.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 09/10/2024
Anyone have suggestions for good applied data science or ML follows on bsky? Even better if they are scientific ML focused.
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Dave Vetter @davidrvetter.bsky.social · 25/09/2024
So today the New York Times hosted the head of the far-right, anti-science, pro-fossil fuel Heritage Foundation at its Climate Week event. Which tells you all you need to know about the NYT.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 18/09/2024
How many PPM of CO2 when you joined BSky?
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