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Jake Nichol, PhD

@complemental.bsky.social
436 followers 1.4K following 239 posts

Computer Science PhD in causal discovery for Earth science from UNM. National lab R&D scientist researching causal AI and AI credibility. 🌶️Born and raised in New Mexico. 🎶Trying to make a dollar out of what makes sense. [Machine] Learn to Save Earth 🌎🌏🌍.

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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Baldur Bjarnason @baldurbjarnason.com · 08/08/2026
This is the main reason I'm so angry about the "AI" bubble. All this enormous effort could have been spent combatting the climate crisis and the opportunity cost of your fucking chatbot is going to be the very climate we live in Imagine what we could have done with those 3 trillion dollars?
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Jenn @jennburrill.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
U.S. Bureau of Land Mgt seeking public comments on REVOCATION of a 2023 order closing 336,404 acres near Chaco Canyon to mining & mineral leasing for 20 years If passed it eliminates the existing 10-mile buffer preventing oil drilling next to the historical site You can comment until July 29th 👇
eplanning.blm.gov
BLM National NEPA Register
The Bureau of Land Management National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Register allows you to review and comment on plans and project documents. Search by office, NEPA number, Project name, year, and ...
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Oh he clearly knows now to talk
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Putri Prihatini @putriprihatini.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Singaporean artist Leia Ham reimagined LotR as Tale of the Middle Kingdom, since Chinese name for China (Zhōngguó) means "The Middle Kingdom." Her concept art includes the Fellowship, armors, buildings like Bag End, props like Aragorn's banner and Fellowship brooches, and more. #TolkienTrewsday
An illustration of the Fellowship, reimagined with Chinese-style period outfits.An illustration of armors of Gondor, Rohan, and Rivendell Elves, reimagined using different periods of Chinese armors as concepts. On the top right are three side profiles of Rohan man, Gondorian, and Elf with different Chinese hairstyles. On the bottom right is Aragorn's banner redrawn with Chinese influence.A concept art of Bag End reimagined as Chinese court houses, with tall stone gates, round wooden doors, curved roofs, and open courtyard, nestled in a hill.A concept art of Rivendell in the style of Chinese painting. Next to it are several props drawn in Chinese style such as Fellowship brooch based on gingko leaves, lembas in the shape of mooncake, Elfstone as round jade, Galadriel's phial in a green jade bottle, and shards of Narsil.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Me_irl
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Jenn @jennburrill.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Why New Mexico hasn't mandated this for at least all government buildings is beyond me #nmleg
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
I really wish we’d cut out some oil and gas revenue for renewables. I think we’ve used it for good things but the best thing for fossil fuel money is to buy energy security.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Grant Tosterud @granttosterud.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
New Mexico’s snowpack is officially GONE. Well, mostly. There’s still a little snow hanging on in the highest peaks and north facing slopes, but the snow at every SNOTEL site has now melted. This ties 2018 for the earliest melt off on record. Average melt off is June 16. #NMwx
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
The scale of AI apologia in much of academia is pretty wild to see
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Let’s do accountability in addition to guardrails.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 20/04/2026
THREAD: The IEA global energy review 2026 * CO2 record high, but growth nearly ground to halt * Clean energy shaved 3bn tonnes off CO2 * Fossil-fuel power pushed into reverse * Age of Electricity "confirmed" * "Extraordinary" solar growth * Batteries up 40% * EVs up 20% 1/10
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
The "super-El Nino" talk is unhelpful clickbait hype. Current consensus forecast is for a Nino3.4 index of ~1.3C to materialize later this year. That's a *moderate* El Nino; pales in comparison w/ recent (e.g. 2016 & 2024) events. The truth remains bad enough! www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
This paper is way out of my wheelhouse but the Wired headline actually seems alright. It’s just completely uncritical of the paper though.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
I can’t speak for the Wired article or its healine, but it’s based on this paper by some of Anthropic’s researchers: transformer-circuits.pub/2026/emotion.... All the authors I googled have PhDs and are very highly cited. The paper is not currently peer reviewed though.
transformer-circuits.pub
Emotion Concepts and their Function in a Large Language Model
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
I don’t like this headline at all but there are absolutely genuine researchers at Anthropic. These are not peer reviewed claims though and that’s what’s important.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
A message I like to convey is that there’s no such thing as too little action or too late because every tenth or hundredth of a degree cooler is better. Every bit of action may mean another species lives, another community has water, another ski area remains open lol. It all matters.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Any “we’re doomed” framing is wrong in my opinion but I lack the space and time to fully elaborate. At any rate, I think if we are eventually doomed, it’ll be because of a proliferation of that belief. Imagine if everyone who cares, but thinks we’re hopeless, became motivated and pressed for action.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Think it’s a matter of Booker gunning for centrism? Often I see Dems criticize their party and follow by co-opting conservative vernacular like “radical left.” At the same time they speak gently of the GOP and never mention its extremism, even though it is extreme all the way through.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Now do subsubdivisions
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
I’m convinced nation states would act if there was widespread and consistent public support, despite short term heterogeneous costs. At COP/Paris, large, wealthy states have expressed willingness to take on more burden for the sake of others too. I believe there is precedence for such actions too.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Good points. My main interest is in convincing the ones hearing fossil fuel propaganda who think we’re helpless. If they heard enough voices to the contrary, then perhaps public support for climate action would increase and that would motivate geopolitical coordination.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
I don’t mean to suggest it is easy or simple. I mean to suggest it is doable with limited sacrifice given sufficient coordination and investment. Neither is novel/unaffordable and similar examples are in living memory. I mean to refute the propagandized view that our cultures/species is incapable.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
The list grows substantially when you include subsidized efforts (including the fossil fuel industrial complex we have now) and economically driven development. Renewables already justify themselves economically and would be a no brainer if they saw the same subsidies the fossil fuel industry does.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Others said the ozone hole, acid rain, and Y2k, which are among my examples too. Others include: - smoking in the US - WWII - vaccination campaigns and other public health efforts - various infrastructure development
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
We also have loads of oil and gas money to subsidize it. It would make me sleep easier knowing oil and gas money went to something to help us be independent from it and avoid a climate disaster.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
We have the tools and the means to solve climate change. The world (and the US) has coordinated to solve similarly expensive/challenging tasks in the near past.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
This is absolutely incredible: the average temperature over the past six months (October-March) will end up at 52.5°F in #Albuquerque. That's 4°F above the previous record warmest. 🤯 Even after accounting for climate change, the odds of it being THAT warm are 1-in-123,000!! 🤯
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Man, that’s pathetic
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
I wonder if people are just exhausted by the endless list of things to protest. I know there were some small ones in my city. I agree though, I was at those ‘03 protests when I was 10.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Exxon’s 1982 report is pretty easy to read and very easy to find online if you search for it “1982 Exxon internal report”. It’s titled A Primer on CO2 and Climate Change
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Not too far off mine
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
American Meteorological Society @ametsoc.org · 19/12/2025
New AMS Statement: Dismantling NSF’s National Center for Atmospheric Research would weaken U.S. leadership in weather, water, and climate science, putting public safety at risk. For more than 60 years, NSF NCAR has improved forecasts and early warnings that save lives. More: bit.ly/4q6eChn
Photo of a lightning strike. "Scott's Bluff" by Isaac Schluesche was a finalist in the AMS 2024 Photo Contest
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Thanks, that’s believable. Obviously I don’t live in NY or a place dense enough to really understand these changes.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
For sure. It’s worth knowing the impact though and it’s interesting anyway. They may see their own increased congestion, which is likely worthwhile but is still worth understanding. It’s a potential cost of these changes right?
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
How were travel times for non-car travelers affected?
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
usatoday.com
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
This post is sociopathic and deranged behavior
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
I’d have liked some discussion on their privacy and security because that’s what keeps me from entertaining anything other than Apple’s.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
There’s a culture of despair on the left. Not for no reason of course, but a shame.
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
KOJAMF🤘🖤🤘 @kojamf.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Dr. Jane Goodall filmed an interview with Netflix in March 2025 that she understood would only be released after her death.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
What’s your sign?
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Zohran Kwame Mamdani @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
New Mexico's economy is a fraction of the size of New York City's. If they can enact universal childcare — and relieve working families of a crushing cost burden — surely we can too. It's just a question of political will.
19thnews.org
New Mexico will be the first state to make child care free
The program, which is expected to save families $12,000 per child annually, is available to all residents regardless of income.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
How it works in NM is simply a matter of committing available funds to it. The state has the money from oil and gas tax revenue and has chosen to put it towards this.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Me_irl
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Reposted by Jake Nichol, PhD
Technology Connections @techconnectify.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
I want to clarify that my example here is actually what I think is one of the best use cases of LLMs (as a sort of search and parsing tool). The problem is handing everyone the keys to a very confident-sounding implementation of that. It takes subject matter experts to verify the results.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
I meant no criticism. You admitted some ignorance of AI, and I wanted to provide information. These systems aren’t inherently trustworthy, and there’s currently no method to evaluate “trust.” Use them for verifiable information only. They can’t verifiably determine if an image is real or fake.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
ChatGPT cannot confirm whether a photo is AI or not. No computational method can right now.
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Jake Nichol, PhD @complemental.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
It’s both because it’s something he’s been doing for decades. It was taught to him by his mentor Roy Cohn medium.com/bouncin-and-...
medium.com
No Matter What Happens, You Claim Victory and Never Admit Defeat
The genesis of the downfall of American democracy
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