AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predictions with far less ...

Abstract. Because extreme heat has not historically been a major hazard for the city of Rio de Janeiro, the November 2023 Heatwave magnitude and timing were staggering. Here we conduct a case study of...

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To strengthen societal resilience to worsening natural hazards, siloed Earth system science communities must collaborate to understand conditions that favor skillful subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts.

Abstract. Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme precipitation events and provide sources of predictability of these events on timescales ranging from days to decades. In ...

The authors assess the impacts of tropical deforestation and its subsequent local warming on human heat-related mortality. They estimate that deforestation-related warming (+0.27 °C) is associated wit...

We introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) for learning local causal dynamical structure underlying space-time data CaStLe enables previously infeasible analyses of grid-cell-level ...

Climate model simulations suggest that both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the southwestern United States in recent decades, thus maki...

The duration of long heatwaves increases at an accelerating rate with warming such that a large increase in the risk of long-lasting heatwaves results from relatively modest warming, according to an a...

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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling

The patterns found in the atmosphere often uneventfully dissipate, but occasionally feed giant hurricanes.

Coastal sea level records suggest that Pacific Ocean sea level and climate trends are unlikely to persist over the coming decades.

Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...

Key measures of biodiversity were quantified and found to be affected by human pressures that shifted community composition and decreased local diversity across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecos...

Under the threat of even more mass layoffs, today President Donald Trump ordered the National Weather Service to deport Pacific weather pattern La Niña. “We got an email from DOGE this morning conf…

A modular framework for evaluating weather forecasts - google-research/weatherbenchX

Vanessa Robledo, a second-year PhD student in civil and environmental engineering (CEE), is helping improve the Iowa Flood Center’s abilities to better forecast flash flood events. Building on her mas...