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Christian Julliard

@christianjulliard.net
2.8K followers 516 following 67 posts

I think, read, write, teach (and take photos). Associate Professor @LSEFinance. I study the interaction between financial markets and the macroeconomy. christianjulliard.net

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Reposted by Christian Julliard
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 09/07/2025
@econmsk.bsky.social and Levine's new WP on Fertility in high-income countries has two remarkable graphs www.nber.org/papers/w3398... The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 01/07/2025
A must read. 20 years of USAID avoided an estimated 91 million preventable deaths worldwide. The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the a...
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 26/06/2025
My flight to Chicago landed in Milwaukee, leaving me stranded and miss my connection to London. A learning experience: consumer protection in US v EU is (dark) night v day.
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption. Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing 🧵👇 1/n
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern: AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
donmoynihan.substack.com
What AEI Gets Wrong about SNAP Work Requirements
They cited my research, so let me respond!
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Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
BREAKING: Judge McFadden has *granted * the AP’s injunction against the White House’s ban on access to the Oval Office and East Room.
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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 08/04/2025
Tariffs xkcd.com/3073
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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Google searches for "filing for unemployment": 1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 03/04/2025
(Marketing with?) fear of a run
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 30/03/2025
If I had not cancelled already my monthly donation to @theguardian.com because of the economic illiteracy of their editorial team, this attack on central bank independence would have been the last straw
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 30/03/2025
We should go after all the economists stating “Let $(\Omega , \mathcal{F}, P)$ denote ….” without ever citing Kolmogorov
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 16/03/2025
UK used car price trends are quite telling:
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 14/03/2025
I wonder how much the commodification of education, at all levels, has to do with it. Thinking and tackling complexity is hard, painful, and frustrating. Hence at odds with "customer" satisfaction. Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
ft.com
Have humans passed peak brain power?
Data across countries and ages reveal a growing struggle to concentrate, and declining verbal and numerical reasoning
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 06/03/2025
On behalf of the ones that still care about facts (and seem to be disappearing), a zillion thanks to the @kiel.institute for putting this together: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
ifw-kiel.de
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.
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Reposted by Christian Julliard
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25% www.reuters.com/business/aut...
reuters.com
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25%
A trade group representing nearly all major automakers warned on Tuesday that new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will lead to drastic price hikes.
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and their Children,” by Londoño-Vélez (@jlondonovelez.bsky.social) and Saravia: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and Their Children*
Abstract. This paper examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and cre
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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
On day 4, this is a new frontier This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension) These data were already out the door It COSTS resources to yank it back This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
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Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
PLEASE RT :) Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics Deadline Jan 30 (soon!) Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
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Paul Bruno @paul-bruno.com · 14/01/2025
"Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs...the returns to marginal audits...exceed the returns to average audits...Deterrence...results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile." academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
academic.oup.com
A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution*
Abstract. We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 07/01/2025
Time for the last teaching fine tuning, so just finished the material for the practical "how to" of robust Bayesian Asset Pricing: christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac... Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format. 🧪
christianjulliard.net
Bayesian Factor Zoo package - Christian Julliard homepage
Bayesian Factor Zoo package The package implements all robust asset pricing methods in Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models, (2023) and Bayesian Fama-MacBeth Regre...
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ASSA Annual Meeting @assameeting.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
#ASSA2025 livestream sessions available to everyone at
buff.ly
ASSA 2025 Live-Streamed Sessions
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance...
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Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Ariel is always a must read
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
New evidence that it was the economic vibes, stupid open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com
A Win for the Vibecession Story
Guess what? Popular economic narratives aren’t reliable
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Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
I think this should be kind of a big deal: Elon Musk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.” The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Are you on the job market and have very few interview requests (<5, say)? Now is the time to email your advisor and ask for help!
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 19/12/2024
A quadrillion thanks to @eohneberg.bsky.social for porting to Julia the BayesianFactorZoo R package. Julia package: github.com/eohne/Bayesi... R version: cran.r-project.org/web/packages... And our original paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... No excuses for sloppy inference anymore ;)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
We propose a novel framework for analyzing linear asset pricing models: simple, robust, and applicable to high-dimensional problems. For a (potentially misspecified) stand-alone model, it provides re....
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
I probably shouldn't have called a parasitical racket a parasitical racket paulkrugman.substack.com/p/health-ins...
paulkrugman.substack.com
Health Insurance is a Racket
What value do these companies add, really?
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Tommaso Valletti @tomvalletti.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Revised version of our paper with Bo Cowgill and Andrea Prat just out. We document how mergers in the US are followed by large and persistent increases in lobbying activity. Firms with market power also try to gain political power. www.nber.org/papers/w33255
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David Schindler @david-schindler.de · 14/12/2024
A group of researchers has attempted to replicate our work on self-control and asset market prices published in the Review of Financial Studies (doi.org/10.1093/rfs/...) and not been able confirm our findings. See doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
doi.org
Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims
Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, coll
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Reposted by Christian Julliard
Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
new WP y'all www.nber.org/papers/w33236
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Anjali Adukia @aadukia.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Econ RA/Predoc Opportunity! Ben Feigenberg & I are looking for an RA to work with us on projects studying the impacts of restorative justice in schools. Apply here! uchicago.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern... @econ_ra @UChicago @thisisUIC @HarrisPolicy @BeckerFriedman #EconSky
Professor Anjali Adukia (University of Chicago) and Professor Ben Feigenberg (University of Illinois at Chicago) seek a full-time research assistant with strong technical skills to work on large-scale social policy research projects designed to improve educational outcomes. The analyst will work on a portfolio of projects related to education and restorative justice in schools. The position is based in Chicago, IL.

The successful candidate will have experience in applying a variety of statistical modeling and data analysis techniques to datasets in real-world settings. From project inception to delivery, the RA will contribute to all facets of data collection and cleaning, model development, and implementation.

To apply, please submit a resume/CV, a letter of interest, the name of at least one reference, and an unofficial transcript through the UChicago Workday jobs portal. 
Example Responsibilities
•	Works with partners and members of the research team to propose and implement analytical approaches to solving specific research questions.
•	Cleans, transforms, merges, and matches between large and complex research and administrative datasets.
•	Builds statistical models for a variety of research projects.
•	Performs sampling, power analysis, and randomization.
•	Prepares results for memos, presentations, and academic papers for both policymakers and researchers.
•	Assists with literature reviews and drafting papers.
•	Writes statistical computer programs and reviews computer output for consistency and quality. 
Maintains technical and administrative support for a research project.
•	Analyzes and maintains data and/or specimens. 
•	Conducts literature reviews. 
•	Assists with preparation of reports, manuscripts, and other documents.
•	Performs other related work as needed.
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Owen Zidar @omzidar.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Pretty striking findings! www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/app/uploads/...
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Nick Knudsen @nickknudsenus.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
If you see this post, can you please help spread this information? #ASafeChoice is a referral network of physicians who provide medication abortion services ACROSS THE US. People everywhere need to know about this option. These doctors have capacity to help more women! Let’s spread word! ❤️✊
social.demcast.com
Click to Visit #ASafeChoice Network
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Julian Reif @julianreif.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Yes, make sure to have an updated and informative website!
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 30/11/2024
Economists love using linear regression to estimate treatment effects — it turns out that there are perils to this method, but also amazing perks Come with me in this 🧵 if you want to learn about our now-published paper "Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions!" 1/ (Twitter rerun!)
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Florian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Some of the most important lottery anomalies from the behavioral risk literature (e.g., probability weighting and loss aversion) actually have nothing to do with risk. They also arise in perfectly deterministic settings. Lead article in the latest AER issue: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
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Bernardo Mottironi @bmottironi.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Alright, I've got zero followers right now—let's see if this thread on my JMP can escape the depths of the internet. TL;DR: Labour market power leads to large productivity losses. Keep reading if you’re interested in misallocation, tech diffusion, and regional disparities (you should be!).
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
The usual suspects are out there yelling "There are 23 million government workers! Fire most of them!" No awareness that most work for local governments, and most of *them* are schoolteachers. Federal employment hasn't grown since the 1950s
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 23/11/2024
The pessimist: “it can’t get worse” The optimist: “sure it can”
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 23/11/2024
👇A financial economist to follow. @alex-dickerson.bsky.social Producer of great public goods for corporate bond research at openbondassetpricing.com
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Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 21/11/2024
Economist parenting: tongue-in-cheek suggestion to little one for falling asleep: “count the sheep.” Stopping to reflect, and seriously adding: “actually, square them”
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Alexandra de Gendre @adegendre.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
#econSky check this out! You can submit your papers to sqare.org while waiting for journals to take forever. Get the feedback and keep moving science without all the disruptions caused by the publication system
sqare.org
Overview
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Michael Bauer @michaeldbauer.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
🚨Call for Papers🚨 Together with the Bank of Canada and the Chicago Fed, we're organizing a Conference on #FixedIncome Research and Implications for #MonetaryPolicy on May 22-23, 2025, in San Francisco. Submissions due by January 31. More details: www.frbsf.org/news-and-med... #EconSky
frbsf.org
Call for Papers: Fixed Income Research and Implications for Monetary Policy - San Francisco Fed
Submissions due by January 31, 2025 for the Fixed Income Research and Implications for Monetary Policy Conference
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Arpit Gupta @arpitrage.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
Nice Grumpy post on inflation www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation-...
grumpy-economist.com
Inflation vs. Prices
Did “supply shocks” or “relative demand shocks” cause the recent inflation?
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Katy Milkman @katymilkman.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
This is a fantastic tool if you’re looking for people with overlapping interests (as judged by networks) to follow: bsky-follow-finder.theo.io
bsky-follow-finder.theo.io
Bluesky Network Analyzer
Find accounts that you don't follow (yet) but are followed by lots of accounts that you do follow.
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Kevin Shih @kevinshih.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
John Hicks is in the rare class of economists that dunked on himself. I think there is a lesson here for all of us. Excerpt from Paul Flatau's: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
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Lawrence Katz @lkatz42.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Insightful and important analysis of the returns and costs of tax audits across the income distribution by Boning, Hendren, and Sprung-Keyser (@bsprungkeyser.bsky.social) now in the QJE (@qjeharvard.bsky.social)
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Jonathan Adams @jonathanjadams.com · 16/11/2024
I put together a starter pack of all the academic macroeconomists I could find on the platform. It's short. Please message me if you would like to be added. go.bsky.app/RYnjd8k #econsky etc.
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Reserves Were Not So Ample After All,” by Duffie, Copeland, and Yang : doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
Reserves Were Not so Ample After All*
Abstract. We show that the likelihood of a liquidity crunch in wholesale US dollar funding markets depends on levels of reserve balances at the financial i
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
What a chart. www.economist.com/interactive/...
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