Sign in

iiinova is part of the Atmosphere — an open, public network where you own your identity.

Christian Julliard

@christianjulliard.net
2.8K followers 516 following 67 posts

I think, read, write, teach (and take photos). Associate Professor @LSEFinance. I study the interaction between financial markets and the macroeconomy. christianjulliard.net

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 09/07/2025
@econmsk.bsky.social and Levine's new WP on Fertility in high-income countries has two remarkable graphs www.nber.org/papers/w3398... The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
2399 39
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 01/07/2025
A must read. 20 years of USAID avoided an estimated 91 million preventable deaths worldwide. The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the a...
020 2
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 26/06/2025
My flight to Chicago landed in Milwaukee, leaving me stranded and miss my connection to London. A learning experience: consumer protection in US v EU is (dark) night v day.
030 3
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
🔵 Paper: tinyurl.com/4m733etp 🔵 In 20 Slides: tinyurl.com/yc54pkz5 🔵 Codes & Replication: tinyurl.com/4c5tneh6 n/n - fin
tinyurl.com
000 0
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
Bottom line:
 ✅ Financial markets help identify the true process of consumption
 ✅ This helps solve long-standing asset pricing puzzles 
✅ Time-varying volatility of consumption? Probably not the main story behind time-varying risk premia 12/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
What about time-varying risk premia?
Contrary to many models, we find no evidence that stochastic volatilities in consumption drive them.
Instead, it’s the (shocks to the) conditional mean of consumption the main link between consumption and returns. 11/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
We verify these mechanisms with a plethora of perturbations to specification / data / frequencies / etc No matter how we slice it, the result holds: consumption reacts slowly but strongly to financial shocks, & these slowly propagating shocks command very large risk premia. 10/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
Is this Long Run Risk? Not verbatim, but rather medium run / business cycle risk: consumption reacts to priced shocks fully within 2-3 years. Hence, priced consumption risk is about what happens within the next business cycle, rather than hundred years down the line. 9/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
We embed our estimated process into a standard recursive utility model.
With low risk aversion, it explains both the equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles.
No need for exotic preferences or extreme calibrations. 8/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
To validate our identification, we turn to micro data.
Only stockholders’ consumption responds to financial shocks.
Non-stockholders’ doesn’t. Aggregate consumption sits in between.
Exactly what theory predicts. 7/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
These shocks aren’t just statistically significant—they’re economically meaningful. They command an annual Sharpe ratio of ~0.5 (as large as the market!) and explain a large share of stock return variation (and a modest but significant share of bond excess returns too). 6/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
Using a flexible state-space model we find that aggregate consumption reacts over multiple quarters to shocks spanned by financial markets, accounting for over 25% of consumption variation. 5/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
Hence, news about current and future priced consumption states are immediately reflected in prices, and we can use returns to learn about consumption dynamics. 4/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
Our identification strategy is grounded in theory:
 📌 The Euler equation links consumption and returns
 📌 Asset prices are “jump” variables—they react to shocks as they occur 3/n
100 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
Most consumption-based asset pricing models rely on “dark matter”--ingredients very powerful in action, yet almost impossible to see with a naked eye or easily verify. We turn this identification problem on its head: Instead of going from consumption to returns, we go the other way round. 2/n
110 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 17/06/2025
🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption. Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing 🧵👇 1/n
140 4
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern: AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
donmoynihan.substack.com
What AEI Gets Wrong about SNAP Work Requirements
They cited my research, so let me respond!
10357127 357
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
BREAKING: Judge McFadden has *granted * the AP’s injunction against the White House’s ban on access to the Oval Office and East Room.
207122222453 12.2K
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 08/04/2025
Tariffs xkcd.com/3073
256311938706 31.2K
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Google searches for "filing for unemployment": 1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
626554 265
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 03/04/2025
(Marketing with?) fear of a run
020 2
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 30/03/2025
If I had not cancelled already my monthly donation to @theguardian.com because of the economic illiteracy of their editorial team, this attack on central bank independence would have been the last straw
000 0
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 30/03/2025
We should go after all the economists stating “Let $(\Omega , \mathcal{F}, P)$ denote ….” without ever citing Kolmogorov
051 5
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 16/03/2025
UK used car price trends are quite telling:
050 5
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 14/03/2025
I wonder how much the commodification of education, at all levels, has to do with it. Thinking and tackling complexity is hard, painful, and frustrating. Hence at odds with "customer" satisfaction. Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
ft.com
Have humans passed peak brain power?
Data across countries and ages reveal a growing struggle to concentrate, and declining verbal and numerical reasoning
010 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 06/03/2025
On behalf of the ones that still care about facts (and seem to be disappearing), a zillion thanks to the @kiel.institute for putting this together: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
ifw-kiel.de
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.
030 3
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25% www.reuters.com/business/aut...
reuters.com
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25%
A trade group representing nearly all major automakers warned on Tuesday that new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will lead to drastic price hikes.
61777254 777
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 06/02/2025
📌
000 0
Reposted by Christian Julliard
The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and their Children,” by Londoño-Vélez (@jlondonovelez.bsky.social) and Saravia: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and Their Children*
Abstract. This paper examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and cre
314568 145
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
On day 4, this is a new frontier This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension) These data were already out the door It COSTS resources to yank it back This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
5409185 409
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
PLEASE RT :) Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics Deadline Jan 30 (soon!) Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
48076 80
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Paul Bruno @paul-bruno.com · 14/01/2025
"Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs...the returns to marginal audits...exceed the returns to average audits...Deterrence...results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile." academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
academic.oup.com
A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution*
Abstract. We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90
02713 27
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 07/01/2025
Time for the last teaching fine tuning, so just finished the material for the practical "how to" of robust Bayesian Asset Pricing: christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac... Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format. 🧪
christianjulliard.net
Bayesian Factor Zoo package - Christian Julliard homepage
Bayesian Factor Zoo package The package implements all robust asset pricing methods in Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models, (2023) and Bayesian Fama-MacBeth Regre...
010 1
Reposted by Christian Julliard
ASSA Annual Meeting @assameeting.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
#ASSA2025 livestream sessions available to everyone at
buff.ly
ASSA 2025 Live-Streamed Sessions
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance...
03020 30
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 26/12/2024
And with the perfect pan for it - my French grandma would definitively approve.
120 2
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Ariel is always a must read
182 8
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
New evidence that it was the economic vibes, stupid open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com
A Win for the Vibecession Story
Guess what? Popular economic narratives aren’t reliable
741192232 1.2K
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
I think this should be kind of a big deal: Elon Musk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.” The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
935166746564 16.7K
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Are you on the job market and have very few interview requests (<5, say)? Now is the time to email your advisor and ask for help!
13510 35
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 19/12/2024
Wow, Elias, this is amazing! Really thanks! I’m travelling thousand of miles away from a computer, but will test this out as soon as I’m back!
000 0
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 19/12/2024
A quadrillion thanks to @eohneberg.bsky.social for porting to Julia the BayesianFactorZoo R package. Julia package: github.com/eohne/Bayesi... R version: cran.r-project.org/web/packages... And our original paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... No excuses for sloppy inference anymore ;)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
We propose a novel framework for analyzing linear asset pricing models: simple, robust, and applicable to high-dimensional problems. For a (potentially misspecified) stand-alone model, it provides re....
010 1
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 18/12/2024
Same here. That’s actually how my bsky account got started
000 0
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
I probably shouldn't have called a parasitical racket a parasitical racket paulkrugman.substack.com/p/health-ins...
paulkrugman.substack.com
Health Insurance is a Racket
What value do these companies add, really?
1251942467 1.9K
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 18/12/2024
Might actually be more problematic for data miners in our field: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
AI-Powered (Finance) Scholarship
This paper describes a process for automatically generating academic finance papers using large language models (LLMs). It demonstrates the process' efficacy by
000 0
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Tommaso Valletti @tomvalletti.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Revised version of our paper with Bo Cowgill and Andrea Prat just out. We document how mergers in the US are followed by large and persistent increases in lobbying activity. Firms with market power also try to gain political power. www.nber.org/papers/w33255
17226 72
Reposted by Christian Julliard
David Schindler @david-schindler.de · 14/12/2024
A group of researchers has attempted to replicate our work on self-control and asset market prices published in the Review of Financial Studies (doi.org/10.1093/rfs/...) and not been able confirm our findings. See doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
doi.org
Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims
Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, coll
412423 124
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
new WP y'all www.nber.org/papers/w33236
927958 279
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 06/12/2024
One month? Only 47 ones to go…
030 3
Christian Julliard @christianjulliard.net · 06/12/2024
Sorry to hear - it unquestionably sucks. Yet, that’s still an R&R... but to another journal (that’s what I tell myself at least)
010 1
Reposted by Christian Julliard
Anjali Adukia @aadukia.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Econ RA/Predoc Opportunity! Ben Feigenberg & I are looking for an RA to work with us on projects studying the impacts of restorative justice in schools. Apply here! uchicago.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Extern... @econ_ra @UChicago @thisisUIC @HarrisPolicy @BeckerFriedman #EconSky
Professor Anjali Adukia (University of Chicago) and Professor Ben Feigenberg (University of Illinois at Chicago) seek a full-time research assistant with strong technical skills to work on large-scale social policy research projects designed to improve educational outcomes. The analyst will work on a portfolio of projects related to education and restorative justice in schools. The position is based in Chicago, IL.

The successful candidate will have experience in applying a variety of statistical modeling and data analysis techniques to datasets in real-world settings. From project inception to delivery, the RA will contribute to all facets of data collection and cleaning, model development, and implementation.

To apply, please submit a resume/CV, a letter of interest, the name of at least one reference, and an unofficial transcript through the UChicago Workday jobs portal. 
Example Responsibilities
•	Works with partners and members of the research team to propose and implement analytical approaches to solving specific research questions.
•	Cleans, transforms, merges, and matches between large and complex research and administrative datasets.
•	Builds statistical models for a variety of research projects.
•	Performs sampling, power analysis, and randomization.
•	Prepares results for memos, presentations, and academic papers for both policymakers and researchers.
•	Assists with literature reviews and drafting papers.
•	Writes statistical computer programs and reviews computer output for consistency and quality. 
Maintains technical and administrative support for a research project.
•	Analyzes and maintains data and/or specimens. 
•	Conducts literature reviews. 
•	Assists with preparation of reports, manuscripts, and other documents.
•	Performs other related work as needed.
16034 60