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Charly Salonius-Pasternak

@charlyjsp.bsky.social
5.5K followers 988 following 1.9K posts

Geopol advisory at Nordic West Office (CEO) & Miltton: US FP; transatlantic relations; Nordic defence; Finland; Tech & society. ‘Alumni of’ @fiia.fi, Wesleyan Univ, FDF J5, CCW at Oxford. 1000s of media interviews over years. Capt (res), author, speaker.

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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This would require a comprehension of those two words “moral” and “binding” - by whom, that I leave to the reader.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 29/09/2026
Jack Smith: "Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in serious crimes against our nation ... rather than accept his defeat in the 2020 election, he engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results and prevent the lawful transfer of power"
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
NEW BRIGHT SPOTS: "Just build more solar and batteries" I see this comment many times in my social media feed. The problem: The slogan undersells the problem. It also undersells the solution. The good news: we already have most of the tools we need. janrosenow.substack.com/p/the-proble...
janrosenow.substack.com
The problem with "just build solar and batteries"
Why the easiest story about the energy transition is misleading.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Joskus kuulee datakeskusten rakentamista Suomeen perusteltavan sillä, että ne toimisi pelotteena hyökkääjälle ja lisäisi liittolaisemme USAn todennäköisyyttä auttaa meitä. Nämä perusteet eivät todellisuuden valossa näytä olevan pitäviä. 🧵 1/x
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Mathias Glistrup @glistrup.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Four years in the rabbit hole with millions of Russian military docs, and I finally feel comfortable writing this (very uncomfortable) story. Russia appears to have upgraded and re-activated the fabled Dead Hand that ensures global nuclear retaliation if Russia comes under attack.
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Christian Zauner @chrizau.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The clear-eyed part is 5. on page 4. Deep emission cuts and deep and sustained decarbonization is the conditio sine qua non to enable CDR to potentially become effective in case we will never cross 1.9°C and not trigger too many tipping points before. Then adaptation might be possible later..
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
As an American political historian, I can confirm that this Congress has been "almost unmatched in history" in several categories -- sad abdication of its war powers, craven surrender of the power of the purse, weird refusal to conduct meaningful oversight, and an utter failure to pass actual laws.
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Hypervisible @hypervisible.blacksky.app · 18/09/2026
“Once you understand that the broligarchs are eugenicists who care more about hypothetical, future AI-enhanced lives than about today’s population…a lot of things start making sense.”
techpolicy.press
What Policymakers and the Public Need to Know About the Cult of AI
Nathalie Maréchal asks, why are we betting the economy and the future of democracy on cult-like beliefs?
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Jason Kint @kint.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Eye popping. Court just unsealed Summary Judgment motions in New York Times v OpenAI / Microsoft. Easy to see why the AI companies had so many redactions (pink). Their own people wrote the lede for NYT, the "largest theft of labor in human history"... "more and more substitutive..." /1
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/ Donald Trump's order to stop the use of Canadian goods in US federal procurement threatens to have a massive impact on the US defence-industrial base, which is heavily dependent on Canadian inputs – especially raw materials such as aluminium.
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CBS News @cbsnews.com · 15/09/2026
CBS News Exclusive: New photos reveal widespread damage at multiple U.S. positions across the Middle East caused by Iranian attacks.
cbsn.ws
New photos show widespread damage at U.S. positions caused by Iranian missile, drone attacks
The images were sent to CBS News by active service members under condition of anonymity.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
This is super cool cross-domain research: Fractal maths x Poverty Turns out poverty follows fractal structures, so 'solving for poverty' requires local-to-global synchronized action. CSP: yet, at a local level we know providing housing 'changes the equation' positively sciforum.net/paper/30257
sciforum.net
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 16/09/2026
🚨 EU to open negotiations on Canada becoming “an associate member of the European Union” - Ursula Von Der Leyen calls for relationships to be developed “to the highest level possible” including economy, security, tech, defence, industry and AI “Not a partnership against anyone else”, she says.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
It's amusing that in 2009 Finland's FP establishment had a hissy fit when I wrote that Finland was party to a war in Afghanistan - it was inappropriate to even suggest that was what the ForMin then said...and now we call it a war in the Middle East but U.S. Administration denies War-description.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I'm pretty sure all great military theoreticians would agree that not telling people the war aim - mission statement - isn't exactly a recipe for success...though I suspect the real reason for classifying it is that there isn't one, or more correctly it changes faster than the weather.
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EUwatch 🇪🇺 @euwatch.live · 14/09/2026
Europe must build own AI or risk getting cut off by US or China, says ECB’s Lagarde
theguardian.com
Europe must build own AI or risk getting cut off by US or China, says ECB’s Lagarde
Central bank chief says continent’s AI dependency could give trade partners unprecedented leverage in negotiations
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Absolutely spot on piece from @dandrezner.bsky.social today. It validates what I said on a panel at APSA (getting slightly outside my lane) when I said the remaining pillars of US hegemony are the military and the dollar. Drezner nails it here. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-dollar...
danieldrezner.substack.com
The Dollar Will Be the Last Pillar To Fall
The Trump administration is gutting the pillars of U.S. hegemony one by one.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
OK, I know what to say: this is not ‘levelling the playing field’, rather it is forcing externalities - harm - that one industry causes on all of us, simply so that they can survive and make money. It is grotesque.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Don’t really know what to say here.…
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Onneksi tämä ei olisi todellisuus EU-Suomess...eikun odotas hetki...
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The first tower collapse is what I remember clearest from 9/11. Perhaps because the two TV anchors were talking away, and the audience could see the live shot behind them - what was happening - before someone told them into their earpieces. Perhaps an odd detail to remember.
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Jill Sargent Russell, PhD @jsargentr.bsky.social · 11/09/2019
Tuesday morning, 2001. Walking down the hall at work, a colleague telling me about a bombing at the WTC. Why is anyone talking about 93, I'm wondering.
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Spencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I've spent my entire career reporting on the War on Terror. Many this week have asked me for my extended thoughts on the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Here they are.
forever-wars.com
Today We Must Finally Remember What The 9/11 Commemorations Ignore
Righteous victimhood fueled the War on Terror. 25 years later, we also have to remember all of those slain under its banner
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Janne M. Korhonen @jmkorhonen.fi · 11/09/2026
Saw a movie about one of those farcical-but-serious episodes of Finnish history: the kidnapping of (former) president K. J. Ståhlberg and his wife Ester, who wouldn't be left behind, by hapless far-right goons. The movie was very much "inspired by a true story," so here's my version. A THREAD:
A black and white photograph of president Ståhlberg of Finland and his wife, listening to an old guy speaking outside.
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Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · 11/09/2026
>the houthis were trying to use claude to build their rocket guidance system just get me off the fucking ride www.anthropic.com/threat-intel...
GTG-87001: Disrupting a Yemen-based guided weapons engineering cell using Claude to develop guidance software
Summary

We identified a cell of threat actors based in northern Yemen running three weapons development programs: a guided rocket that used a commodity phone-class flight computer with final-phase homing guidance; a multi-stage ballistic missile with a stated range goal above 2,000 km; and a multi-variant missile (referred to as the “R2000” set) that included a hypersonic glide vehicle variant.

The actors used Claude Code in place of human software engineers to develop the guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) software that steers and stabilizes a flying vehicle. For example, they used Claude to integrate an open-source autopilot onto a phone-class flight computer, writing the control and position estimation software, tuning the control settings, running a firmware build pipeline, and performing a flight simulation. The actors managed several Claude instances at once, assigning each one a role, much as a lead would delegate work on a small engineering team: the actors tasked one instance with writing the code, another with research, and a third with reviewing the code the first instance produced.

Our safeguards blocked many of their requests, but not all of them. The actors used a variety of tactics to evade our safeguards, including hiding their goals and the products the software was meant for, and they split their work across multiple sessions so no single session revealed their full intent.

These actors carried out a sustained effort to develop guided weapons, including using Claude to design guidance software. We do not have evidence the actors succeeded in fielding an operational device; but they did test-fire a guided rocket. This field test appears to have failed: within hours, the actors returned to Claude to work out why it failed.

We identified this activity as part of our internal investigations into suspected weapons development. We banne…
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
25 vuotta sitten päivä oli normaali, ei poikennut edeltävästä merkittävästi. Sitä seuraavana päivänä (9/11) alkoi maailmaa muuttava tapahtumaketju. Väitän että on mahdoton ymmärtää miten syvästi päivä vaikutti Amerikkalaisten elämään ja omakuvan + turvallisuuden tunteeseen, ellei asunut siellä.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I'm certain that every person who was old enough to remember, remembers where they were and what they were doing on 9/11. I know I do. On Trump not remembering, it is true he frequently misremembers what he said 25 minutes ago, but the stuff he's been saying about 9/11 is just fabrications - lies.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Texasissa on enemmän aurinkoa kuin Suomessa, mutta aurinko + akut on yhdistelmänä aikamoinen. Uusiutuvista on akkukehityksen takia tulossa koko sähköverkon tasapainoittava voima.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
If you want to very different cases for solar, the massive and quick difference deployment can make - at a system level - we now have among others: Texas and Pakistan. For both the predictions and forecasts - and thus societal impacts - haven't been, well, even in the right direction.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 09/09/2026
A Chinese official attempted some of that Wolf Warrior Diplomacy ™ shit. It did not go well. Philippines' Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro was speaking up for smaller nations and international law at a forum in Korea when he was handed a note from a Chinese official, meant as intimidating.
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Matthew Downhour @matthewdownhour.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Quite a thing to say - “every time you target our military vessels we will attack your civilian ones”
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Eeei @ylenews.bsky.social, älkää lähtekö siihen että ’uutisoitte’ OpenAI jne lehdistö tiedotteita. Voisitte myös käyttää hieman aikaa kokonaisuuden selvittämiseen (👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼). Olette parempia kuin tämä tekele: yle.fi/a/74-20245250
yle.fi
Open AI väittää ratkaisseensa yhden vuosituhannen matemaattisista mysteereistä
Chat GPT 6 on Open AI:n mukaan ratkaissut merkittävän ja avoimen matemaattisen kysymyksen. Ratkaisua ei ole vahvistettu.
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Dancing very very VERY close to saying “OpenAI stole our almost-complete proof of Navier-Stokes from internal access to our ChatGPT sessions because they were desperate to scoop Anthropic” which is absolutely 100% a believable thing OpenAI would do right now cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/st...
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Erin Sikorsky @erinsikorsky.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
1/ My latest newsletter covers the security implications of the climate overshoot report released by UNEP yesterday. The bottom line? Plan for 3 degrees, work like hell for 1.5. Five more takeaways threaded below....
securityinaclimatechangedworld.substack.com
Security Takeaways from the UNEP Overshoot Report
Plan for Three, Fight for 1.5
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Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 07/09/2026
For decades, China’s maritime pressure on Taiwan centered on the major shipping strait separating the two neighbors. Now, Beijing is piling unprecedented pressure on its Pacific coast — a vital lifeline with US allies. Read more: bloom.bg/4xeUPiu 📷️: Daniel Ceng/Anadolu/Getty Images
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The sheer chutzpah of these people (in this case OpenAI chief scientist), first creating something extremely dangerous and then warning us of its dangers but fundamentally arguing that they need more powerful models for defence - it’s a self-licking ice cream cone. openai.com/index/an-ali...
openai.com
An Alien Mind
Jakub Pachocki reflects on increasingly capable AI and the challenge of keeping it aligned. He calls for stronger safeguards and international coordination.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Sovereign states need to put out an arrest warrant for Sam Altman, detain him and charge him with cyber crimes, and ensure these Silicon Valley Tech bros actually have to bear some consequences. Deterrence works here too, shut them all down. Now. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI agents hijacked German website in previously undisclosed AI breakout this spring
A swarm of rogue OpenAI agents hijacked a German website this spring and transformed it into a bulletin board for other AI agents, according to ​new research and two people familiar with the matter.
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
This “game” on the White House website, a version of Snake where you play as a white man in a suit and you run around picking up identifiably black, Asian, and Latino men and putting them in orange jumpsuits, might be the most openly white supremacist thing I’ve ever seen the US government produce
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Mark Z. Jacobson @mzjacobson.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
This is how fast oil use can disappear China's reduction in oil consumption during first half of 2026 due to replacement of fossil vehicles with EVs exceeded the UK’s entire oil consumption during that period China’s CO2 emis fall Q226 due to plummeting oil use carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
carbonbrief.org
Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions fall in Q2 2026 due to plummeting oil use - Carbon Brief
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, as oil consumption plummeted amid the strait of Hormuz crisis.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Sovereign states need to put out an arrest warrant for Sam Altman, detain him and charge him with cyber crimes, and ensure these Silicon Valley Tech bros actually have to bear some consequences. Deterrence works here too, shut them all down. Now. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI agents hijacked German website in previously undisclosed AI breakout this spring
A swarm of rogue OpenAI agents hijacked a German website this spring and transformed it into a bulletin board for other AI agents, according to ​new research and two people familiar with the matter.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I could see how someone in Finland might tell Sec Bessent to go ski into tree. To blame Ukraine for what was caused by Russia’s expanded war against 🇺🇦 and U.S. stupidity in starting war w Iran is not even chutzpah, just lying. To paraphrase TG, some might say… he’s a fool but no, he’s a liar.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Who says a little political demagoguery can’t change opinion ;-) Re: Republicans views on Canada 🤦🏼‍♂️
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I want ads like this. Hei puolueet, tehkää tätä 👇🏼 Eduskuntaan kaivataan hyviä ihmisiä; ei kukaan jaksa nykymenoa.
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Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 04/09/2024
What happens when radical right-wing populist parties are in government? In our op-ed, we summarize some key polisky findings: normalization, curtailed civil liberties, weaker economic performance, greater inequality, and an overall threat to democracy itself www.derbund.ch/adrian-vatte...
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Tässä yksi Demokraatti lisää joka ei ole seuraamassa vanhan Dem eliitin pelikirjaa (pyrkiä osoittamaan että voivat olla keskitien kulkijoita ja mukailla / tehdä yhteistyötä Republikaanien kanssa), vaan puhuu kieltä mitä Dem äänestäjät haluavat kuulla - eli vähän aggressiota ääneen.
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Sapling 🌱 @sacredsapling.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Woke up to this news and I’m beyond disgusted. It’s a US *constitutional right* now to create and own ‘CSAM,’ as long as it was made with AI?? AI gen images are built from real images, of real children. This directly re-exploits every single CSAM survivor. (More in 🧵) #abolition #trafficking
A federal judge has ruled that the First Amendment protects an individual's right to privately possess child sexual abuse content created using Al if it does not depict a real person and remains in the home.
On Tuesday, Judge John Z. Lee of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th District ruled that the First Amendment protects an individual's right to privately possess images or videos of child sexual abuse created using artificial intelligence if the material does not depict a real person and remains in the home. In his ruling, Judge Lee urged the Supreme Court to reconsider the issue of virtual abuse material of children in the age of Al, suggesting that technological advances complicate existing legal precedent.
The case Lee ruled on came about in 2024 when the Department of Justice brought charges against Steven Anderegg, alleging that he used Al to create thousands of explicit images of children. He was accused of breaking federal obscenity laws by producing, distributing and possessing obscene visual depictions of minors engaged in sexually explicit conduct. Anderegg sought to have the possession and production charges dismissed under the First Amendment. Last year, a judge in the Western District of Wisconsin agreed to dismiss the possession charge, prompting the federal prosecutors to appeal.
Lee, in his ruling upholding the lower court's decision, cited the precedent set by Supreme Court rulings from 1969 and 2002. One held that individuals have a right to possess obscenity in the privacy of their home. The other found that "virtual" child sexual abuse material, not depicting a real person is not child pornography.
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
18Bn USD sounds like a lot but is effectively now a cost benefit calculation or ‘risk premium’ Meta can calculate (see Ford and Pinto), it is less then 1/3 of Meta’s 2025 profits. Won’t change Meta behaviour at all, nor make our societies safer. I say, forget this path. Break up the company.
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Anna-Maria Mitchell @annamami.eurosky.social · 27/08/2026
En pysty nukkumaan. Nepal oli vuosia mun kotimaa. Kasvoin siellä aikuiseksi 19-24 vuotiaana ja myöhemmin elin siellä pienten lasteni kanssa. Jokainen kuvissa näkyvä maisema on tuttu. Ne rajarakennukset tuhoutui hetkessä, olen ylittänyt rajan 3 krt niiden kautta. Ja pahin? Tämä oli odotettavissa. 1/
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Pari ajatusta Dolly Partonin vaikutuksesta Yhdysvaltoihin, ja hänen musiikista: "9 to 5 on syvästi yhteiskunnallinen laulu, joka kertoo työelämän valta-asetelmista ja tasa-arvon puutteesta...Light of a Clear Blue Morning kertoo muutoksen tuomasta toivosta sekä pelosta." yle.fi/a/74-20243009
yle.fi
Jakautunut Yhdysvallat rakasti Dolly Partonia
Kantritähti oli yhteiskuntapoliittinen, muttei puoluepoliittinen, Yhdysvaltoihin erikoistunut tutkija sanoo.
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 26/08/2026
I think every major company is looking at open weight AI models and realizing they can just bring them in house with an internal engineering team and cut out the frontier model companies to save money. They have more control and privacy. I really don't see frontier labs surviving this.
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