iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

(This probably does not include the last few specials in this cycle, and again is only specials in "swing" districts)

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Don't quite have time at the moment to create this, but this density plot I created awhile ago should show at least the special election part of the story. 2026 clearly in a different category even than 2018.

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Since 2024 was a stronger election result for Trump than 2016, the 2018 and 2026 overperformances aren't strictly comparable. But anything short of a 2018-style blue wave would be completely out of the ordinary compared to modern trends.

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 22/09/2026

While we're all huffing hopium, here's a chart from my forthcoming @pspolisci.bsky.social article using data from @the-downballot.com. In the last three midterms, special election overperformance in swing districts closely tracked swing district overperformance in the general. Now look at 2026.

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whenever i hear some variation on "but what if trump does X or Y or Z" i think of this ulysses s. grant remark to a subordinate during the wilderness campaign.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 16/09/2026

RCP Generic Ballot on 9/16/18: D+8.3 RCP Generic Ballot on 9/16/26: D+8.6

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 15/09/2026

Solidarity brother. My bags are more apparent with every media appearance, and the mustache gets more Ron Swanson-like alongside it for distraction purposes.

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Naomi Schalit @democracyeditor.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

If the Ds win the House, depending on the size of their majority, "the DSA-affiliated lawmakers’ reach and power, despite their small numbers, could extend beyond elections and deep into the process of legislating," write SoRelle Wyckoff Gaynor & @charlesrhunt.com theconversation.com/from-the-fre...

theconversation.com

From the Freedom Caucus to the democratic socialists, small groups inside parties can wreak havoc with leaders’ agenda in Congress

What role might DSA-affiliated candidates play if they win election to Congress in the midterms and the Democrats gain a majority in the House of Representatives?

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Quinn Bornstein @quinn-bornstein.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Great weekend of rural American scholarship & culture with a presentation at @apsa.bsky.social, Rural Working Group happy hour, & Kacey Musgraves 🤠. @charlesrhunt.com @ryan-dawkins.bsky.social @aleelockman.bsky.social @klunztrujillo.bsky.social @smettler.bsky.social @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 22/08/2026

So darkly funny that his daughter makes the obvious airtight argument adhering perfectly to his “well rounded” comment, which happens to be the hallmark of liberal arts education; he then clarifies that what he actually wants is for her to have a variety of viewpoints, as long as they’re all his.

Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 21/08/2026

We are an R2 attempting to be an R1 and my only opinion is that I would like to be whatever type of R that means we can stop talking about it and I can get back to my job

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Jen Rice @jenrice.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

BREAKING: It made the final cut. Congratulations, Michigan, you might have the best voting sticker of 2026.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 19/08/2026

Dems about to flip a Trump+19 state legislative district in PA, just FYI

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The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 17/08/2026

When Julia Curlee was in the CIA, she was guided by the motto “Service before politics. Country before self.” The Trump White House needed her—until her gender identity became public. On Radio Atlantic, she tells her story to Adam Harris: theatln.tc/aP7x2DgM

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 17/08/2026

I agree w/ Meta AI that this would have been quite a shocking choice

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.

data4democracy.substack.com

Hook and Squeeze

How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 15/08/2026

Do these dudes really not grasp the unspeakably high wattage of Huge Loser Energy stuff like this gives off?

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Abby Vesoulis @abbyvesoulis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Something I didn’t include in the story: Rep. Miller expressed to the judge he was worried about making future court hearings over his CPO because Republicans have a “very small majority.” His lawyer basically told him to shut up.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 15/08/2026

Per my research, "he's not from around here" is a bad enough hit. But this is a good example of a downstream effect, which is that it makes it easier to form a narrative around place/space-related issues like data centers. "He's from LA, and thus wants to make where you live more like LA."

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 09/08/2026

Well this one's going into the podcast for sure

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Seth Rosenthal @sethrosenthal.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

slammed the brakes so hard I flew through the windshield

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 07/08/2026

We 💙 county-level shifts over time from a measurement standpoint because county lines don't change — i.e., these shifts can't be attributed to things like gerrymandering. Only real culprits could be 1) Migration, 2) Generational shifts, 3) Turnout differences, or 4) Party-switching.

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Kylie Eleison @gonebabygone.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

(Reassuringly) the president has the zoomies

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 01/08/2026

We'll see what voters think, but I want to note there's a difference between "Unpolished but comes across as a normal person" (Jackson) and "Unpolished but comes across as an very online troll weirdo" (Blake Masters). The latter is off-putting; the former could actually be really powerful this cycle

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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

It is funny that this person thinks “immigrants defended the union while native born whites sought to destroy it in the name of slavery” is an argument against immigrants being Americans. This is precisely the point, nothing about being born here makes you better bsky.app/profile/aphc...

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Julian Sanchez @normative.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Everyone I know got vaccinated. I never heard of a “complication” more serious than a day of chills and fatigue.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 28/07/2026

Y'all should go, I will be there

Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 28/07/2026

I actually do want to know so please stop being cryptic about it

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 21/07/2026

This is both 1) not in any way validating of Trump's broader claims, but also 2) really not good, and other states need to learn lessons from it.

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Mark Schmitt @mschmitt9.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

When I worked in the Senate (eons ago), there was a phrase I remember hearing, often from senior staffers, if someone expressed total contempt for another senator, even if well deserved: "He got elected, too, the same way [our boss] did." It was a mark of basic respect for the democratic process.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 20/07/2026

What say we wait at least one entire week before declaring somebody "an excellent senator"

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 18/07/2026

The explanation is Moana rules

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"Davide Broccoli" goddamnit I miss Rhode Island

I checked, and it's true. This level of domain name management alone makes him the most qualified person to be president since at least Eisenhower

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Coincidentally, "Are we good?" is the textbook thing guys ask their partners when they understand that "we are not good" but wish to skip over the inconvenient business of learning what's bothering their partner, lest they discover they are the problem

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That would have to be Rollerball (2002) starring LL Cool J