iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Joel Cantó Roche

Courtney Milan @courtneymilan.com · 10/10/2026

If I built an AI lab and it went rogue and deleted all student loan information, I'm betting they'd suddenly figure out how to prosecute me.

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Reposted by Joel Cantó Roche

Revista Fórum @revistaforum.com.br · 09/10/2026

Meta admite falha nas métricas do Instagram que prejudicaram Lula e deram vantagem Flávio: PT aponta diferença de engajamento entre os candidatos e suspeita de prejuízo ao presidente; empresa reconhece problema técnico #revistafórum

revistaforum.com.br

Meta admite falha nas métricas do Instagram que prejudicaram Lula e deram vantagem Flávio

PT aponta diferença de engajamento entre os candidatos e suspeita de prejuízo ao presidente; empresa reconhece problema técnico

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A real welfare state and universal health care require broad taxation, including the middle class. But high end wealth taxation is the kind of tax that protects democracy and the rule of law, and prevents aristocratic dynasties. It keeps us human.

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…

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Lukas Stoetzer @lstoetze.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Ever wondered what attributes are relevant in your conjoint experiment? And what assumptions you need to estimate it? Asya and I got you covered. In a new working paper we propose the APNS: the probability that an attribute's level change is necessary and sufficient for the selection of a profile.

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Joel Cantó Roche @cantjoel.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"The desublimation rampant in advanced industrial society reveals its truly conformist function (...) the happy consciousness is shaky enough - a thin surface over fear, frustration, and disgust. This unhappiness lends itself easily to political mobilization." (Marcuse, 1964, p. 76).

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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/

Text as Behavior
Text as Behavior published in Political Analysis

by Omar Wasow

Abstract

Text analysis typically focuses on content—such as sentiment or topic—but expression is also a form of effortful action. Building on this insight, I propose using simple features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. This approach treats expression, such as writing, as cognitively, emotionally and temporally “costly” for subjects but inexpensive for researchers. I show basic statistics like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation of quantities of interest, including candidate choice, the probability of turning out to vote and psychological states about which a subject may not be fully aware. Further, these methods can convert nonresponse into informative data; validate survey instruments; serve as mechanism checks; be hard for a subject to “game”; work across different languages and analogize well to real-world situations. In sum, text as behavior can help address a range of issues related to quantifying attitudes and actions.

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Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It was always clear that David Goodhart's fairy tale of a struggle between rootless cosmopolitans and down-to-earth conservatives ("Anywheres vs Somewheres") was not influential because it was accurate, but because it confirmed the prejudices of right-leaning commentators. Now we have the evidence:

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

The Road to Nowhere: Being Rooted in a Region Does Little to Predict Support for Populist Parties or Opposition to Migration and Social Change

In his influential book The road to somewhere David Goodhart claims that a split between a majority of people who are rooted in particular places or groups (the “Somewheres”) and a minority of people...

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Reposted by Joel Cantó Roche

European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Mapping public perceptions of politicians 🗺️ Mads Nørgaard uses Danish survey data to demonstrate that most citizens view politicians as both internally homogeneous and socially distinct from the general population buff.ly/iwvPSAJ

buff.ly

The political class in citizens’ minds: Mapping public perceptions of politicians | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

The political class in citizens’ minds: Mapping public perceptions of politicians

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Isabella M. Weber @isabellamweber.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

This is the deepest crisis of Western democracy since the Nazi era. Growing up in Nuremberg, I have learned that being anti-fascist is my first civic duty. There can’t be a question which side I’m on, as a human and an economist. As a student of FDR, I say: “I welcome their hatred.”

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Brazil is voting today, and while the presidential election is likely to go to a runoff — the results are a clear and significant shift to the right since the 2022 election and set up Flávio Bolsonaro very well to oust Lula in the October 25 runoff.

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Joel Cantó Roche @cantjoel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

D'aquest article em quedo amb l'últim paràgraf dedicat a la praxis de l'esperança: "Es posible que (...) sigan el método que Lou Reed y Laurie Anderson desarrollaron para vivir con conciencia: No temer a nadie, aprender a utilizar un detector de gilipolleces y ser tiernos.".

lavanguardia.com

Vuelve el fascismo, aunque no lo veamos, por Xavier Mas de Xaxàs

El radicalismo no es solo un problema político, es un problema social. Preferimos verlo como una manifestación de la política llevada al extremo, pero su raíz es social. Son las sociedades las que se ...

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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

This is a tough read. Having taught at various U.S. universities, I have been amazed by the fact that sexual assault is endemic and most of the little debate has been focused on protecting men from false accusations (which rarely happens) — himpathy, as @katemanne.bsky.social coined.

katemanne.substack.com

Ban the Fucking Frats—and in the Meantime, Avoid Them

My open letter to a seventeen-year-old female college applicant

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

👇🎯 Not a single elite journalist with an Ivy League degree is practicing this advice, & the lifetime income returns to college have not changed despite The Narrative™️ that cannot fail (it can only be failed). Fund the damn public universities, & stop telling people they shouldn’t pursue education.

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Julia Métraux @juliametraux.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

"I'm supposed to be a tough guy," Curtis confided. "I can hold your hand," the mayor offered "What happens if I faint?" Sliwa asked. "I've got you," Mamdani assured him, grabbing his hand as Sliwa received his flu shot. abc7ny.com/post/nyc-may...

abc7ny.com

Mayor Mamdani holds hands with one-time rival Curtis Sliwa to get flu shot

An apparent bromance has continued to blossom for the one-time political rivals.

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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November

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EL PAÍS @elpais.com · 02/10/2026

Casi el 75% de los inquilinos temen verse obligados a salir de la vivienda en los próximos dos años. El 83% de quienes no tienen casa en propiedad están interesados en adquirirla, pero poco más de una cuarta parte lo ven probable en los próximos diez años

elpais.com

Casi el 75% de los inquilinos temen verse obligados a salir de la vivienda en los próximos dos años

El 83% de quienes no tienen casa en propiedad están interesados en adquirirla, pero poco más de una cuarta parte lo ven probable en los próximos diez años, según una encuesta monográfica de 40dB.

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Perspectives on Politics @poppublicsphere.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!! Closing the Gap: #Gender, #Race, & #Welfare-State Knowledge By Jasmine English www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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David Woodruff @dmwoodruff.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NYT clanker Keynes is fun to watch but unconvincing. Keynes thought he had two great insights:(1)declining marginal propensity to consume implies a demand shortfall w/o investment;(2)can't count on investment b/c it's based on vibes and vibes about vibes. This is where he'd have started with AI.

nytimes.com

Opinion | What Would John Maynard Keynes Say About A.I.? The Keynes Bot Told Us. (Gift Article)

Nearly a century ago, Keynes predicted that technology would liberate us from work. To imagine what he would think of artificial intelligence today, a Princeton economist used A.I.

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Corey Rayburn Yung @coreyryung.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

After decades of awareness raising, people have generally come to accept that someone they are close to has been raped. They remain largely unwilling to consider the fact that they have likely been and may still be friends with a rapist. We are a nation of rape without rapists.

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Joel Cantó Roche @cantjoel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Yes, that’s true. But comparatively within Spain, it’s noticeable that the results do not vary much in comparison to Valladolid, for instance, despite the cosmopolitanism of Madrid.

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Joel Cantó Roche @cantjoel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Madrid is quite an outlier, too.

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Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Super excited about this. See you next week in Madrid!

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Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Es ist wirklich ein Erdrutsch... In meinem Wahlkreis (arm, jung, migrantisch, außerhalb des Rings) hat vor drei Jahren noch die CDU gewonnen, die Linke kam nie über den niedrigen zweistelligen Bereich. Jetzt liegt sie bei 53%. interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/berlin-w...

interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de

Interaktive Karte zur Berlin-Wahl 2026: So hat Berlin gewählt – alle Ergebnisse der Kieze und Wahlkreise

Grün zu pink, schwarz zu blau: Unsere Karte zeigt die Ergebnisse aller Stimmbezirke, Wahlkreise und Bezirke. Finden Sie heraus, wie Ihr Kiez gewählt hat und wie sich die Ergebnisse verändert haben.

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Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The gender gap among young voters in Berlin’s state election: 51% of women under 25 voted for the Left Party, according to exit polls.

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Nils Gilman @nilsgilman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Watching a cartel form right out in the open is really something.

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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 09/09/2026

In this thread from a few months back I had a stack of replies from Claude addicts explaining how they can basically now generate a new piece of software every time they need something, and they did not see that as a bad thing at all As always: they're making digital single-use plastic

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Navneet Alang @navneetalang.com · 27/08/2026

My most recent half-thought is about "AI" and cultural/social capital. Can't help but think it's going to become another marker of status in some way -- those who "have to" resort to LLMs, those who can afford a graphic designer, those with the time to do x.

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Pronto @notengoprisa.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Berlín está instalando unas cámaras de seguridad con inteligencia artificial que te denuncian automáticamente a la policía si haces algo sospechoso. Además, te rastrean. Pero China no sé qué.

elpais.com

La nueva Stasi

El Ayuntamiento de Berlín instala cámaras de vigilancia automática por inteligencia artificial

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Philippe J. Fournier @338canada.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

🍁New poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows majority of Canadians in all regions and age groups siding with Mark Carney's decision to pull out of negotiations.

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Erick Padilla @erickpadilla.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

New paper with @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social in EJPR: Does the "winner-loser gap" in democratic attitudes also apply to politicians? We extend some previous insights from recent literature on the topic by looking at 27 elections across 15 European countries. 🧵 buff.ly/UarD6eC

buff.ly

The winner–loser gap in democratic attitudes among politicians: Individual and collective outcomes | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

The winner–loser gap in democratic attitudes among politicians: Individual and collective outcomes

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[Christopher M. Federico] @chrispps.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

hysteria about ‘DEI’ is more of a thing within the commentariat / culture industry than the mass public as a whole

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Joel Cantó Roche @cantjoel.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

<<“Europe” serves as a shorthand for immigration, welfare states, and free-speech laws that seek to limit the power of new-media moguls to spread disinformation.>> . www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

newyorker.com

The U.S. Helped Make Europe. Can It Break It?

During the Cold War, U.S. policymakers pushed for a unified Europe. Their MAGA successors are trying to undo all that.

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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 14/08/2026

one thing i have been deeply struck by, in this era of resurgent fascist wannabes, is how unable any of them have been at mass social mobilization they can control elites and high levers of power, but command little spontaneous mass assent

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Corey Rayburn Yung @coreyryung.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

This is rape culture

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13/08/2026

I have reanalyzed polling microdata from two surveys in Wisconsin, generously shared with me by State Navigate, and put the results up Strength In Numbers for all to learn from. As far as I know this is the only public autopsy from Tuesday's miss www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-13...

gelliottmorris.com

I re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.

What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls

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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

if the cheese banks fail we will have a problem worse than 2008

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Emilio Rodriguez-Diaz / Mr. Ship @mrshipderiparia.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Confiaba en que Esparta, su aliada, acudiría. No lo hizo: no se arriesga cuando no le va nada. Melos fue exterminada, no vengada. Cámbienle el nombre: la neutral es un ¿socio europeo?, y la Esparta que no acude es la ¿UE? Tucídides ya lo escribió. La fuerza manda; la neutralidad, no protege.

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Guillermo Zapata @gzapata.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Lo que estamos viviendo con Marruecos es un intento absolutamente transparente de desestabilizar un país con el apoyo de terceros y es el resultado de la política de externalización de fronteras de la UE. Y para ello está usando a una población civil desesperada y empobrecida.

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Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

1/ Happy to share our paper 'Still Instrumentally Inclusive' w/ @turnbulldugarte.com in @apsrjournal.bsky.social. Understanding homonationalism remains important. Recent events (Berlin) have shown how quickly LGBT+ rights can become instrumentalized in debates about immigration and Islam.

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