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Justin Fox

@byjustinfox.bsky.social
3K followers 601 following 475 posts

Columnist @opinion.bloomberg.com‬. Opinions mine, charts property of Bloomberg LP (although you are of course welcome to share them).

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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Just to continue the campaign to stop people from taking that ridiculous @semafor.com chart (the accompanying story is OK) on tourism to the US seriously, here's a rendering of the data by an expert in non-misleading data visualization
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Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 02/10/2026
I’ve written this up here. In addition to there not being a Covid-scale drop in tourism recently, you might also be wondering why visits from Mexico seem to double around 2004-05. The answer is not a sudden shift in Mexican preferences but rather our old friend, There Was A Change In The Measure.
kieranhealy.org
Trump Tourism Effects
In the past day or two on social media I kept seeing this graph from a Semafor story on the declining volume of international visitors to the United States. Semafor Graph. It seems to show, and was be...
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Paul Fairie @paulisci.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I'm glad we're finally outsourcing the horrible bits of life like making plans with friends so we can have more time to consume ads.
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Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 29/09/2026
So whether you're just into financial history, history from a different perspective, or want to understand how global finance *actually* works today, then please pick up a copy. Here are the US purchase links: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/750210...
penguinrandomhouse.com
A Fabulous Debt by Robin Wigglesworth: 9780593719183 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
From veteran Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, an epic history of the debt that built the modern world. Long considered the "boring" corner of finance, bonds are anything but. They have ...
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Just wait till the American manosphere discovers freeze-dried sauerkraut
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The gap between rates on new mortgages and existing ones is growing again, which I think is the home sales equivalent of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chart showing the average rate on new US 30-year mortgages and the effective interest rate on existing mortgage debt since 1977. The two lines are usually quite close together, with new-mortgage rates significantly higher only in the early 1980s and since 2022.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I want to see the reenactment of this one
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/09/2026
Some folks are holding up the unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season as some sort of "gotcha" for climate scientists. But low Atlantic hurricane activity has long been the signature of strong El Nino events, as memorably shown back in 1997:
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Emily Peck @emilypeck.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Drop everything @felixsalmon.com wrote about the $60 bread www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The K-Shaped Loaf of Bread
At RYE by Martin Auer, the bread costs $60 per loaf. The theory behind this gambit makes some sense.
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Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 17/09/2026
As an investor, how much value do you place on safety? Before you answer, consider the career of Tina Turner. An excerpt from Allison Schrager's new book, "Worth the Risk"
bloom.bg
What Bond Investors Can Learn From Tina Turner’s Career
This article is adapted from Worth the Risk: The Seven Myths That Keep Us From Taking the Chances We Need to Take by Allison Schrager, to be published by Yale University Press. Copyright © 2026 by Allison Schrager. Excerpted by permission. All rights reserved.
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Alfred Twu @alfredtwu.com · 14/09/2026
Do you ever think about how San Francisco basically went through an economic miracle, with multiple years of double-digit growth, and about the only thing they have to show for it is a world-famous housing crisis? Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...
Chart labeled Economy of San Francisco, showing rapid growth from 2011 to 2024. On the right is a chart showing the GDP per year in billions, and percentage change. 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPALL06075

Year	Billion	% Change
2001	$70	
2002	$68	-3.5%
2003	$68	0.8%
2004	$70	2.0%
2005	$76	8.7%
2006	$81	7.5%
2007	$87	6.3%
2008	$88	1.1%
2009	$88	0.3%
2010	$92	4.6%
2011	$100	8.6%
2012	$112	11.8%
2013	$119	6.7%
2014	$131	10.3%
2015	$144	9.7%
2016	$157	9.2%
2017	$173	10.0%
2018	$189	9.4%
2019	$207	9.6%
2020	$215	3.7%
2021	$250	16.4%
2022	$246	-1.8%
2023	$259	5.3%
2024	$268	3.7%
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
What the Trump administration has been doing to the federal government, in one chart. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Nondefense agences with 2,000+ employment decline since Jan. 2025
Department, agency or subagency	Employment change	Percent change
Internal Revenue Service	-29,985	-29.4%
Veterans Health Administration	-26,347	-6.2%
Social Security Administration	-7,934	-13.8%
Forest Service (since July 2024)	-7,268	-17.8%
Transportation Security Administration	-6,481	-9.8%
Federal Emergency Management Agency	-5,759	-22.1%
Bureau of Land Management (since July 2024)	-5,274	-47.6%
Veterans Benefits Administration	-5,198	-15.0%
National Institutes of Health	-5,052	-23.5%
Agency For International Development	-4,739	-95.4%
Food and Drug Administration	-4,700	-22.4%
Army Corps of Engineers	-4,563	-11.8%
Environmental Protection Agency	-4,476	-26.4%
Department of Energy	-3,976	-24.8%
Centers For Disease Control and Prevention	-3,649	-28.6%
Small Business Administration	-3,480	-40.6%
National Park Service (since July 2024)	-3,469	-15.4%
Department of State	-3,158	-21.8%
Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA)	-3,002	-25.3%
Fish and Wildlife Service (since July 2024)	-2,803	-30.8%
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.	-2,575	-20.8%
Geological Survey	-2,572	-30.5%
Citizenship and Immigration Services	-2,514	-11.0%
Public Buildings Service (GSA)	-2,452	-43.8%
Census Bureau	-2,436	-18.3%
Agricultural Research Service	-2,325	-32.7%
Bureau of Reclamation	-2,207	-38.0%
Bureau of Prisons/Federal Prison System	-2,175	-6.0%
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Lisa Jarvis @lisamjarvis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Small businesses— a key driver of the US economy — are running out of ways to make the math work on healthcare coverage amid surging costs. They (and the millions of Americans they employ) need relief. My latest @opinion.bloomberg.com (🎁):
bloomberg.com
Healthcare Costs Have Small Businesses in an Impossible Bind
The healthcare affordability crisis is crushing everyone, but it has become downright calamitous for small businesses. Survey after survey after survey shows that employers expect healthcare costs to ...
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Revenue growth at ASML responsible for an estimated one-fifth of Dutch GDP growth
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Owen Lamont explores the safety implications of Anthropic's planned IPO by looking at the safety consequences of coal-mining IPOs (not reassuring!) www.acadian-asset.com/investment-i...
A more striking case involves the Ulyanovskaya mine disaster in 2007. In preparation for an IPO, the Russian firm Yuzhkuzbassugol brought an outside auditor to inspect its supposedly safe and modern mine in Siberia. The auditor, along with senior mining executives, went underground to observe a demonstration of the mine’s “advanced mining safety system.” A massive methane explosion occurred, killing more than 100 people including the auditor and the management team.
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Dave Lee @davelee.me · 10/09/2026
Meta's Muse is strikingly good. Super useful, intuitive. Feels like a breakthrough consumer app to me.
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Tessa Duvall @tessaduvall.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
🚨 Kentucky has announced the finalists in its "I Voted" sticker contest. 🚨 Per the Secretary of State: Kentuckians can vote for their favorite sticker at the SOS's booth at the State Fair from August 20-30.
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Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
The Crime Index is now updated with all of the FBI's 2025 crime, clearance and staffing data. AND it's updated through June 2026 with a sample of 590 agencies nationwide. Murder is down 17%, violent crime is down 6% and property crime is down 10% relative to the first half of 2025. crimeindex.org
crimeindex.org
The Crime Index | Nationwide Crime Data & Trends
The new Crime Index analyzes current and historical crime trends using data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
I can explain 45% of the US homicide decline (that was the r-squared on this) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chart showing the percent of the US population that is men aged 15-34 and the homicide rate since 1900. In general the lines have gone up and down together, although the explanation for the rise and fall of the homicide rate since 2020 must be found elsewhere.
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Brian Lyman @brianlyman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
You all saw that voter participation was 5.24% in Tuesday’s primaries? That’s the side effect of a lack of choice, a paranoid hostility among leaders toward making voting easier, and years of discouragement.
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Brian Lyman @brianlyman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Alabamians live under a government designed to thwart popular will and discourage voter participation, and most people here do not actually choose to live like this.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The gap between the unemployment rates for young college grads and non-grads has been shrinking, leading to much talk about the declining value of a college degree. But labor force participation has been rising for college grads and falling for non-grads ... www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chart showing labor force participation rates for US college graduates and non-grads ages 25 to 29. The former averaged 89.4% in the 12 months ending in June, and is higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. The latter averaged 78.7%, and is lower than before the pandemic.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Why gas prices were down in the July CPI, which is supposed to reflect average prices over the course of the month, even though they rose in July. (Data from the US Energy Information Administration)
Table showing weekly US gas prices:

Jun 01, 2026	4.305
Jun 08, 2026	4.146
Jun 15, 2026	4.052
Jun 22, 2026	3.914
Jun 29, 2026	3.831
Jul 06, 2026	3.777
Jul 13, 2026	3.855
Jul 20, 2026	4.001
Jul 27, 2026	4.096
Aug 03, 2026	4.079
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Some personal news... Today I'm excited to announce the launch of the Housing Frame, a Substack where I'll be analyzing the economy through a housing lens. My debut piece is the Housing Recession is Over. Follow and subscribe here: conorsen.substack.com/p/the-housin...
conorsen.substack.com
The Housing Recession is Over
The vibes remain bad, the recovery is uneven, but recession is now behind us
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Mark Gongloff @markgongloff.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Trump’s anti-Midas touch works in reverse, too: Despite his desire to kill clean energy, he’s stumbled into triggering a renewables boom www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Trump Is Aiding a Golden Age for Renewable Energy
Given America’s political environment, you would be forgiven for thinking the country has slipped into a dark age of energy recidivism; burning oil, gas and coal left and right; and tossing wind and s...
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The core economic pitch for Trump's mass deportations was "fewer immigrants means more jobs for Americans. Unsurprisingly, that's just not happening Instead of rising, prime-age employment rates for native-born Americans fell to the lowest levels in more than four years in data released today
A graph of prime-age employment rates for native and foreign-born
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Nearly 20% of US "news analysts, reporters and journalists" are in the New York and DC metro areas, up from a little over 10% a quarter century ago. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chart showing percentage of US news analysts, reporters and journalists ("news analysts, reporters and correspondents" before 2019) who are in the New York and DC metro areas. In 2000 it was 7.7% and 3.9%, respectively. In 2025 13.7% and 6.1%.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The kind of book review that catches my attention (from a great new @kedseconomist.com column on Social Security) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Former Social Security Commissioner Bob Ball, a leader of the splinter negotiation group, wrote extensively about these events in his book "The Greenspan Commission: What Really Happened." (For what it’s worth, it’s not as boring as the title might indicate.) Ball and others have stressed that it wasn’t a commission or bipartisan spirit that saved Social Security. It was a ticking clock. By the time Congress finally passed reform legislation, Social Security had weeks left before automatic benefit cuts kicked in.
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Tim O’Brien @timobrien.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
How Trump became the grifter-in-chief — and why nobody is cracking down on his multi-billion-dollar White House haul: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
How Trump Became ‘Grifter-in-Chief’: Let Us Count the Ways
Donald Trump and his family are setting a new standard for how to profit off a presidency.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Hmmm
Adjacent headlines in a San Francisco Chronicle email: 1. "Cricket is booming in this Bay Area suburb — sparking a turf war in youth sports" 2. "These BART parking lots are nearly empty. Could they be put to better use?"
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Francis Wilkinson @franciswilkinson.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
GIFT LINK: Faced with federal assault, Minn-St Paul resorted to hyper-local politics, w/ resistance hubs organized largely around neighborhood, school & church. I interviewed dozens of thoughtful activists. Their networks are robust and ready for midterms. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
bloomberg.com
Minneapolis Offers a Blueprint for How to Beat MAGA
Faced with an unprecedented federal assault, citizens of the Twin Cities turned to their neighborhoods, churches and schools to defeat MAGA.
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◥◤Kriston Capps 250 @kristoncapps.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Best drop at the Metro pop-up is this 98-station challenge water bottle
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David Fickling @davidfickling.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Feels like we’re reaching the “Levi 501s smuggled into Leningrad in the luggage of an Aeroflot pilot” stage of American automotive consumerism.
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David Fickling @davidfickling.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
There’s a mine off the coast of Australia that has predicted a century of major wars, and it’s opening again. I went there to better understand tungsten, a critical mineral at the heart of the geopolitical struggle between the US and China: 🧵 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It’s Opening Again
The fortunes of a remote tungsten pit have risen and fallen through more than a century of conflicts. The critical mineral could now be a deterrent.
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Nicole Flatow @nicflatow.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
and more! www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
bloomberg.com
To Find the Heart of America’s 250 Celebrations, Get Out of Washington
Just as with the bicentennial in 1976, official events for the 250th anniversary of the US can’t measure up to locally organized exhibits, parades and commemorations.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
As everyone opines (with justification) about how lame the semiquincentennial is compared with the bicentennial I would like to point out there will at least be a bunch of amazing sailing ships in New York Harbor this weekend sail4th.org
sail4th.org
Home
Sail250 is an official multi-state, high-profile international tall ship and government project formed to celebrate the 250th birthday of the United States.
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Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
New this week: I wrote about the encouraging data showing murders were likely solved at the highest rate this century in the US last year. It's my best post in nearly a week! open.substack.com/pub/jasher/p...
open.substack.com
Murders in 2025 Were Likely Solved at the Highest Rate This Century
One of the cool new features on our newly released Crime Index is the ability to visualize changing clearance rates (along with crime) as they change.
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
One of the dubious pleasures of covering business for a really long time is to watch companies which merged with great fanfare almost two decades ago announce plans to break themselves up as if it's the most logical decision ever. corporate.comcast.com/press/releas...
Comcast Announces Plans to Separate Media and Technology Businesses into Two Leading Public Companies

Key Takeaways
Creation of independent Comcast and NBCUniversal positions both companies for enhanced strategic focus, agility and value creation.
NBCUniversal is a premier global media and entertainment company anchored by leading theme park, film, television and streaming assets.
Tax-free spin-off of media businesses expected to be completed in approximately one year.
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Arpit Gupta @arpitrage.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The RGB recently voted for a two year rent freeze on NYC rent stabilized housing I was the lone dissenting vote I've written two pieces here; which highlight the challenges of a rent freeze and where to go next www.vitalcitynyc.org/mamdani-rent... cityjournal.substack.com/p/the-high-c...
vitalcitynyc.org
After the Mamdani Rent Freeze
An agenda to fix New York City’s stabilized housing
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
I think this was even more extreme with the University of Rochester and Xerox and Kodak stock back in the day
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Reupping this for obvious reasons. Contains useful information on book publicity and marble manufacturing, as well as lots of Knickerbockers
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Some family news newjerseyglobe.com/fl/joey-fox-...
newjerseyglobe.com
Joey Fox and Zach Blackburn are leaving the New Jersey Globe and here's our tribute to them - New Jersey Globe
A NOTE FROM THE EDITOR This is a difficult announcement to make. It is with mixed emotions that the New Jersey Globe says goodbye to our two incredible
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John Haltiwanger @jchaltiwangerum.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
BFS statistics released today show continued surge in new business applications in AI-intensive sectors. The surge is dominated by likely new nonemployers. Index for likely new employers is 1.3 (relative to base of 1 in 2019m1) in May 2026 but 2.9 for likely new nonemployers.
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Couldn't resist doing some Knickerbockering this morning (gift link) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Knicks’ Name Traces Back to a 200-Year-Old Publicity Stunt
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Stacey Shick @staceyshick.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Bloomberg hot headlines that make me LOL: *TRUMP: STOCKS SHOULD GO UP, NOT DOWN
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Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Enjoyed this piece by my friend @bethkowitt.bsky.social on the lessons of the Scripps National Spelling Bee www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
I found an antidote to my existential angst last week when I tuned into the Scripps National Spelling Bee. The 101-year-old competition might seem quaint and dated in the age of autocorrect and ChatGPT, but it is really a celebration of the crucial life skills that we should be teaching kids. They also happen to be many of the same ones AI has the potential to erode: focus and self-reliance, a tolerance for frustration and discomfort. When the contestants are alone at the microphone, there is no spellcheck or Google to call on, no Claude to give hints on how to parse Phthartolatrae or vaesite. (My spellcheck doesn’t even recognize these words.) “You cannot outsource your thinking up on the stage,” says Mina Kimes, an ESPN NFL analyst who co-hosted the Bee for the first time this year.
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Interesting analysis from Steve Englander at Standard Chartered finding that QCEW-based job growth in the final three quarters of 2025 was aligned with (actually slightly *higher* than) monthly payroll estimates. Suggests @usbls.bsky.social may have succeeded in closing the NFP-QCEW gap. #EconSky
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Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
This is actually a pretty funny story:
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Max Chafkin @chafkin.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
really enjoyed this one. me and @svaneksmith.bsky.social talking to the people who run an honest-to-god state backed grocery store (Atlanta's Azalea Fresh Market, which is a sort of model for what Mamdani is trying to do in nyc). www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Got to think this is the first time somebody (Jack Clark) has made the leap from Bloomberg's reporter ranks to its wealth list www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Anthropic Co-Founders Worth $8 Billion Each After Funding Round
Anthropic PBC’s latest funding round has vaulted the AI firm’s seven founders into the ranks of the world’s 500 richest people, the most from one company to be added in a single day in Bloomberg Billi...
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