iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Charlotte Cavaille @ccavaille.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

New paper with @bjoernbremer.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social out! The Limits of Public Support for Fiscal Consolidation: Survey Evidence From Great Britain (1/7) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Our paper, “The Politics of Black Classification: Sociopolitical Cues and Racial Perception” (w/ Lauren Davenport & @hrendleman.bsky.social), has been conditionally accepted at Perspectives on Politics! Sharing abstract below. Long time coming, but we are really proud of this paper. More soon!

Title page of our paper, “The Politics of Black Classification: Sociopolitical Cues and Racial Perception,” with Lauren Davenport (Stanford) and Hunter Rendleman (UC Berkeley), dated April 14, 2026.

Abstract: What makes someone Black in American society today? From Donald Trump questioning Kamala Harris’s racial identity to Joe Biden’s claim that hesitant Black voters “ain’t Black,” American politics frequently brings questions of racial authenticity and belonging to the surface. Yet political science often approaches race as a fixed attribute rather than a social construction. Here, we seek to understand how Americans define blackness in social and political life. Using a conjoint experiment with a racially diverse sample that includes Black, white, and mixed race Black-white respondents, we evaluate how ascribed and acquired traits influence perceptions of blackness. The results show that inherited characteristics—particularly parentage and skin tone, which are the strongest determinants of racial classification—play a central role, while sociopolitical cues such as partisanship, neighborhood context, and spousal race also influence racial classification. Using a continuous measure, we also show that respondents make graded assessments of blackness rather than purely binary classifications, with some individuals perceived as more Black than others. Black respondents are more likely than white respondents to classify a broader set of profiles as Black, consistent with a more inclusive understanding of racial membership, yet they also place greater emphasis on shared political identity. These findings clarify how racial categories are socially constructed and why that construction carries real political and social consequences.

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Louis @louisevans.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

lmao this one is incredible. “Head of product at X condemns quote-tweeting” my brother in Jira you’re the shift manager at the quote tweet factory

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Peter Baker @peterbakernyt.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

So far, 61 House members have decided not to run again, including 39 Republicans and 22 Democrats. The GOP exodus is the largest since 1930 other than in Trump's first midterm year of 2018. (The GOP lost 40 seats that year.) www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

nytimes.com

For House Republicans, an Exodus Rivaled Only By Trump’s First Term

The number of Republicans departing the House this cycle is one of the highest since 1930.

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neutral @neutral.zone · 23/03/2026

The ATC issue is basically a microcosm of America's failing right now: strategic abundance for prestige projects with operational scarcity for boring safety-critical systems. One exhausted human left holding multiple roles at once, then everyone acts shocked when the substrate bites back.

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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

can it be closed down sooner

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

He’s saying the harshest critics are the govt. I’d guess you’re talking about the most hardline opponents in the public.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

The world is healing. Illegal tariffs gone. Suspiciously good dumplings made with shrimp imported from Vietnam back in stock

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

What’re the chances this guy would have supported 8 trillion in federal spending for civil infrastructure over the last 20 years

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Joe Biden withdrew from 🇦🇫 like everyone said they wanted, & the media decided it was a scandal worthy of destroying a presidency bc it wasn’t immaculately clean. Donald Trump just launched an unplanned illegal war & assassinated the leader of another country, & they’re fluffing the Shah’s son. 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

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Leah McElrath @leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Trump’s former AI advisor calls the Trump administration’s treatment of @anthropic.com “attempted corporate murder” and says Hegseth is engaging in “a psychotic power grab.”

Dean W. Ball & @deanwball
X.com
Nvidia, Amazon, Google will have to divest from Anthropic if Hegseth gets his way. This is simply attempted corporate murder. I could not possibly recommend investing in American Al to any investor; I could not possibly recommend starting an Al company in the United States.
Last edited 4:46 PM • 2/27/26 • 584K Views

Dean W. Ball & @deanwball
X.com
Think about the power Hegseth is asserting here. He is claiming that the DoD can force all contractors to stop doing business of any kind with arbitrary other companies.
In other words, every operating system vendor, every manufacturer of hardware, every hyperscaler, every type of firm the DoD contracts with—all their services and products can be denied to any economic actor at will by the Secretary of War.

This is obviously a psychotic power grab. It is almost surely illegal, but the message it sends is that the United States Government is a completely unreliable partner for any kind of business. The damage done to our business environment is profound. No amount of deregulatory vibes sent by this administration matters compared to this arson.
Secretary of War Pete He.. #©•3h This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Penta... Show more
5:08 PM • 2/27/26 • 321K Views

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

“Chaotic 100 billion refund process” is very on brand for Trump

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

Serious question as someone who has spent maybe three weeks in LA their entire life. What about a dedicated lane in the highway just for buses? Would that not give a viable mass transit option immediately at dramatically lower cost?

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James Grimmelmann @jtlg.bsky.social · 14/02/2026

Rare: "The y-axis should always go to 100%" cranks. Rarer: "The x-axis should always go to 100%" cranks. Rarest: "The z-axis should always go to 100%" cranks.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Protect my private information or just dump my calendar into ChatGPT to see if it can produce my annual faculty activity report?

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

Matt’s book is indeed great, but very well paired with Disarmed by Goss

press.princeton.edu

Disarmed

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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

NEW - The Unequal Challenge of Learning from Under-Informative News - cup.org/461vHAT - @atrexler.com #OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing political news consumption. It highlights the dependency of outlets on audience preferences, with coverage focusing on partisan conflict and specialized jargon.

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Simon Weschle @simonweschle.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

🚨 JOB ALERT 🚨 We're hiring a Teaching Assistant Professor in Comparative Politics! Come join a great department: unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/312... I'm on the committee, so send any questions my way. #polisky #academicjobs

The Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill invites applications for the position of Teaching Assistant Professor of Political Science.

We are looking for a colleague who will teach three courses per semester in our undergraduate curriculum. The principal responsibility will be teaching in Comparative Politics, especially the introductory course, but the candidate may be invited to teach other courses, depending upon the department’s needs and the candidate’s areas of expertise.

The ideal candidate will have a demonstrated record of successful undergraduate instruction. There are no research expectations associated with this position.

This is a fixed term position with an initial appointment for three years and opportunities for re-appointment and advances contingent on performance and available funding. As part of the University’s teaching track, the position offers competitive benefits. More information on UNC’s career ladder and fixed term ranks is available here: https://facultyaffairs.unc.edu/policies-and-procedures/faculty-appointments/fixed-term-faculty-ranks/.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

This thing summarizes the entire decade in just a one minute video.

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28 Days Lehner 🪦 @danlehner.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

the Spectator accidentally recycled a subhed from a previous day’s article about Tehran

The real reason I'm leaving The Great British Baking
Show
Trump is threatening bombing the likes of which Tehran has never seen
Prue Leith

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Today in “Things that 🇺🇸/🇪🇺/the G7 should have done in 2022” bsky.app/profile/mcop...

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Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Luttig: It doesn’t matter what the Supreme Court does from this point forward. For two years, the Supreme Court has authorized the absolute lawlessness and unconstitutional activity of this president.

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Roger Parloff @rparloff.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

The transcript of the MN hearing where an AUSA said “This job sucks” is remarkable for more reasons than that. It’s a searing portrait of a crisis perpetrated by depraved & oblivious high-level officials. Read it all. ... 1/7 www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...

documentcloud.org

19-TS of 020326 hearing - Segundo APG v. Bondi, 26-CV-603

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

If the Democrats in oversight actually focused like this, rather than trying to score cheap political points when almost no one is watching, it would likely help a lot. Let the journalists who have more credibility anyway what a disaster of illegality this Venezuelan oil heist was.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

These companies were basically hoarding material that should have been in the public domain and often was partially, but because of artificial capacity constraints were not that accessible outside Lexis or west. Judicial opinions should not be private, courts in the US monetize access bc they can.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Relatedly, despite British comedy sketches to the contrary, Nazis did *not* actually realize they were the baddies.

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 31/01/2026

This is just insane. It’s only a matter of time before DHS kills another innocent person here. (clip via MPR and @davidjbier.bsky.social on X)

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

I quite honestly believe the Senate Rs have rolled Trump and ICE by agreeing to this thing. The Ds had zero credibility to play hardball, now they have more than a little. The general strike option remains on the table, but making elected Ds own it was never smart politics.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Using aviation safety as a political instrument is a fresh level of 🤡. $BBD

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

The Rs in the senate are certainly aware of this, which suggests certain inferences about where their preferences are even if they’re too chicken to say it.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Much to be revealed still, but this deal looks rather shrewd from the democrats side. By splitting off the funding for DHS, they have raised the credibility of their refusal to fund that agency considerably. A win for D bargaining power in the negotiation to come.

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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Radley is so on the mark zeroing in on this: the creation of new "privacy" rights for federal police. The right to be anonymous to the public. The right not to have anyone know why they shot someone and tried to hide the evidence. "right to privacy" fascism addition.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

I agree with you, what Walz said is fine. Many want to make the comparison to 1933-1934 but may not know how to think about it. The Jewish Museum in Berlin had an exhibit that detailed early Nazi laws. A translation is online, which is quite a read if not nearly as good as the exhibit.

archive.org

Timeline Text of the Catastrophe Exhibit at the Jewish Museum Berlin : Jewish Museum Berlin : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Text of the Jewish Museum Berlin exhibit titled Catastrophe that documents the anti-Jewish laws and measures 1933-1945.

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Nicole Bedera @nbedera.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

The biggest risk in this moment is something sociologists call “symbolic compliance.” That’s when an institution that is violating civil rights gives the public just enough symbolic victories that accountability efforts lose steam before there has been any meaningful change.

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David Noll @david.noll.org · 27/01/2026

Am I recalling correctly that the White House made a deliberate choice last fall to give CPB (and thus Bovino) the lead role in blue state surges because it wasn't getting the results it wanted from ICE? @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social

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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Bayesian Workflow by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, @rmcelreath.bsky.social with @danpsimpson.bsky.social, @charlesm993.bsky.social, @yulingy.bsky.social, Lauren Kennedy, Jonah Gabry, @paulbuerkner.com, @modrakm.bsky.social, @vianeylb.bsky.social (in production, estimated copy-editing time 6 weeks)

**Part 1: From Bayesian inference to Bayesian workflow**

1. Bayesian theory and Bayesian practice
2. Statistical modeling and workflow
3. Computational tools
4. Introduction to workflow: Modeling performance on a multiple choice exam

**Part 2: Statistical workflow**

5. Building statistical models
6. Using simulations to capture uncertainty
7. Prediction, generalization, and causal inference
8. Visualizing and checking fitted models
9. Comparing and improving models
10. Statistical inference and scientific inference

**Part 3: Computational workflow**

11. Fitting statistical models
12. Diagnosing and fixing problems with fitting
13. Approximate algorithms and approximate models
14. Simulation-based calibration checking
15. Statistical modeling as software development

**4. Case studies**

16. Coding a series of models: Simulated data of movie ratings
17. Prior specification for regression models: Reanalysis of a sleep study
18. Predictive model checking and comparison: Clinical trial
19. Building up to a hierarchical model: Coronavirus testing
20. Using a fitted model for decision analysis: Mixture model for time series competition
21. Posterior predictive checking: Stochastic learning in dogs
22. Incremental development and testing: Black cat adoptions
23. Debugging a model: World Cup football
24. Leave-one-out cross validation model checking and comparison: Roaches
25. Model building and expansion: Golf putting
26. Model building with latent variables: Markov models for animal movement
27. Model building: Time-series decomposition for birthdays
28. Models for regression coefficients and variable selection: Student grades
29. Sampling problems with latent variables: No vehicles in the park
30. Challenge of multimodality: Differential equation for planetary motion
31. Simulation-based calibration checking in model development workflow

**Appendices**

A. Statistical and computational workflow for Bayesians and non-Bayesians
B. How to get the most out of Bayesian Data Analysis

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

They are so on the back foot. Bessent is either committing absurd messaging malpractice or playing some really incredible 3d chess against the more hardcore maga faction by attacking a guy for using his 2nd amendment rights while using his 1st amendment rights.

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Brian Libgober @blibgober.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

What does this even mean? The voter file is public? What records are they trying to get?

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