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Alvaro Schwalb

@aschwalbc.bsky.social
2.7K followers 393 following 72 posts

Infectious disease epidemiologist and TB mathematical modeller | Assistant Professor at LSHTM and Associate Researcher at IMTAvH. Tell your dog I said hi.

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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
Catherynne M. Valente @catvalente.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I don’t care where you started out on the political spectrum If your kid comes out as trans & you don’t become a rainbow-clad, parade-cheering ally & rock-solid supportive girl/boy/enby dad/mom? You were never a parent at all You were a doll collector furious they didn’t stay in their packaging.
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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
Prof Gavin Yamey MD MPH @gavinyamey.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Objectively true
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Charlotte Walker @charlottewalker.bsky.social · 28/10/2023
Someone sent me this meme about peer reviewer comments and it is 👌🏻 #PhDSky #AcademicSky
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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
New paper from @plosglobalpublichealth.org: which TB screening strategies are the best value as funding shrinks? Modelling clinic/community approaches in 🇿🇦, we found combining strategies reaching risk groups is more cost-effective than any one approach alone doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0006738
doi.org
Projected population level impact and cost-effectiveness of clinic and community-based tuberculosis screening approaches
The South African National Department of Health have set ambitious targets to scale up TB testing, focusing primarily on clinic attendees. In the context of declining funding for TB care and preventio...
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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
Jorge Ruiz-Cabrejos @jruizcabrejos.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
(Unfortunately) journals do not provide the space in their platforms to share articles in languages other than english. Funding institutions should encourage academia to, at the very least, include translations for the language in which the research is being conducted www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Scientists who don’t speak fluent English get little help from journals, study finds
An analysis of hundreds of journals finds limited efforts to accommodate scientists who are not native English speakers.
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Pro tip: Write your fellowship application while listening to Rage Against the Machine. You're welcome.
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Congrats Peter! Very well deserved.
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
For reproducibility and open science, can you share the second page of the estimator?
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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
WHO @who.int · 14/08/2026
What are you doing today to take care of yourself and your health and well-being? These could be small habits. Or big changes. Every action you take to protect your health matters.
Get moving, rest, enjoy sun safely, quit smoking, time to stretch, be kind to your mind, eat your veggies, reach out for support, drink less or not at all.
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Madhu Pai, MD, PhD @madhupai.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
“Innovation without access is injustice" - Brazilian Health Minister Dr Alexandre Padilha, at the AIDS conference in Rio Lenacapavir Tested in Brazil, Argentina, Peru.... Denied to these populations healthpolicy-watch.news/brazil-pushe...
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Peter MacPherson @petermacp.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
New publication led by Mphatso Phiri: Drivers of sex differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity among adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi link.springer.com/article/10.1... @uofgshw.bsky.social @lightontb.bsky.social @kchorton.bsky.social #TB #Episky 🛟🧪
link.springer.com
Drivers of sex differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity among adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi - BMC Global and Public Health
Background Sex differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) exposure likely contribute to sex differences in tuberculosis (TB) burden. However, population-level age- and sex-specific patterns of Mt...
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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
New preprint suggests that reported symptoms are not a reliable indicator of TB disease severity, and that the context in which someone is investigated for TB—self-presentation to a clinic vs active community screening—may be more informative 👇 medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.10.26357755v1
medrxiv.org
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Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Our new paper in @nathealth.nature.com shows that population-level #TB interventions are likely to have more meaningful impact on disease burden than interventions that only reach routinely diagnosed individuals or their households. www.nature.com/articles/s44... 1/7
nature.com
Global impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - Nature Health
A modelling analysis at a global scale estimates that three interventions (vaccination, community-wide screening and prison screening programmes) could prevent more than 10% of tuberculosis cases betw...
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LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
New preprint suggests that combining clinic and community-based approaches is key to maximising the cost-effectiveness of #tuberculosis active case finding in South Africa 🇿🇦 Read more 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
medrxiv.org
Projected population level impact and cost-effectiveness of clinic and community-based tuberculosis screening approaches
The South Africa National Department of Health have set ambitious targets to scale up TB testing, focusing primarily on clinic attendees. In the context of declining funding for TB care and prevention...
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Also, as a fun (?) fact, during that trip, I had a small accident in the flat I was staying in and lost a tooth, so in a way, I left a part of me in Montreal. 🤷‍♂️
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Today, I'll be presenting our work on estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection at the Advanced TB Diagnostics course, part of the @mcgill.ca Summer Institutes in Global Health. I attended this course in 2019 and am very honoured to be among the speakers now!
Poster for the Advanced TB Diagnostics course at McGill UniversityPoster for the Advanced TB Diagnostics course at McGill and the speakers
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Rebecca Clark @raclark18.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
New publication now out in @lancetgh.bsky.social! New #TB #vaccines are being trialled in older adolescents and adults, and we comment on the advantages and challenges of including younger adolescents who have historically been excluded. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Inclusion of young adolescents in policy development for new tuberculosis vaccines
The infant tuberculosis vaccine, BCG, prevents severe tuberculosis disease, but protection is rarely durable beyond childhood. New tuberculosis vaccines are being developed for the prevention of infec...
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Lara Goscé @laragosce.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Poverty is a major driver of TB.Conditional cash transfers combined with counselling improve pre-treatment loss to follow-up.In this economic analysis our modelling projections show that this intervention is cost-effective and can reduce incidence and mortality. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Cost-effectiveness of conditional cash transfers with pre- and post-test tuberculosis counselling in South Africa: a modelling analysis
Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionately affects low-income populations due to socioeconomic barriers. Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are promising str…
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Georgia Tomova @georgiatomova.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The ultimate get-out-of-jail-free card
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
This is so on point! I just got this response from the authors after my peer-review comments. 🫠
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
We are living in the weirdest timeline.
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CMMID @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
⚕️ A recent @tb-lshtm.bsky.social modelling study found that 134 million people were living with a recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection Centre member @aschwalbc.bsky.social wrote about these findings & their implications Read more 🔽 www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...
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Finn McQuaid @cfmcquaid.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we "eliminated" undernutrition? Our paper out now @lancetgh.bsky.social, where we combined estimates from our review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)
sciencedirect.com
Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence averted by eliminating undernutrition in adults: a modelling study
Current efforts to reduce global tuberculosis incidence have proved insufficient, highlighting that urgent action is needed to address underlying modi…
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Stephen Collins @stephencollins.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
[Scene is the Tudor royal court. ladies and gentlemen standing round. In the corner a very fat HENRY VIII is hunched over playing a lute.]
 
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LADY:
Hey Anne Boleyn -
Who’s that lute player?

ANNE BOLEYN:
I dunno 

[Determined face]

But I’m gonna find out.

[Title lettering panel]:

THIS SUMMER

[Scene is now two musicians - one with a harp, the other is Henry VIII again playing the lute]

HARPIST:
Yo Henry VIII  -  

Who wrote that sick lute riff yo’ jamming?

HENRY VIII:
Why...

[Looking around, modest, surprised at the attention]

I did…!

[Title lettering panel]:

SEE THE STORY

[Scene is now a tudor record producer with ruff and wearing dark sunglasses]:

PRODUCER:
Congratulations Henry 
Your lute thing is a hit and your story is now one of uncomplicated musical success!

[Show a panel with lots of Beatlemania-style scenes of success for Henry the musician - swooning tudor girls, playing lute on stage, waving to fans as he descends from his golden carriage. In the middle of it in Tudor lettering are the words]:

“UNCOMPLICATED MUSICAL SUCCESS MONTAGE”.

[Another scene - a man is saying to Henry]:

MAN:
Say Henry VIII -
Are you doing anything outside this narrative that is very bad or weird?

HENRY VIII:
No.

[Title lettering panel]:

…OF A MUSICAL GENIUS
who definitely didn’t do anything outside this narrative that was very bad or weird

[Scene with Thomas Cromwell]

THOMAS CROMWELL:
Hang on Henry aren't you also a - 

HENRY VIII [jumping in front of him with his lute held aloft]:
LUTE SOLO!

[Final film title panel]:

HENRY VIII: 
Rock Biopic
[rated U]

[Ends]
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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
Finn McQuaid @cfmcquaid.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Out now! Our preprint reviewing effects of extreme weather events on TB. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... @mjsaunder.bsky.social with Lauren Linde & Leo Martinez @bostonu.bsky.social & many others @tb-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm-planet.bsky.social
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Hane @hane.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
I'm a mid-career researcher insofar as my research career is mid
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Astreia @redoubters.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
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PLOS Medicine @plosmedicine.org · 08/04/2026
In this mathematical modelling study, Katherine Horton & co assess #TB community screening approaches & their estimated effects on TB incidence & mortality, concluding that methods that capture both infectious & non-infectious TB are needed to achieve sustained case reductions🧪 plos.io/4tuD2SM
plos.io
Trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis: A modelling study
In a mathematical modelling study, Katherine Horton and colleagues assess different tuberculosis (TB) community screening approaches and their estimated effects on TB incidence and mortality over ten ...
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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
In our latest paper in @plosmedicine.org, we explore trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, coverage, and duration of community screening for #TB, highlighting the importance of symptom-agnostic approaches and the need for strategies to sustain impact when screening ends. plos.io/4tuD2SM
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Alex Richards @alexandra-richards.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
A year after my last day with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social my work on modelling the impact of increasing men's access to care and reducing excess risk of TB has gone live @commsmed.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Modelling the impact of increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage and addressing determinants of risk in men - Communications Medicine
Richards et al. use a compartmental transmission model of tuberculosis to understand the impact of strategies to improve men’s access to care and to reduce men’s excess risk of TB. In all four countri...
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Peter MacPherson @petermacp.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
New study led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social. Reducing men’s TB risk and improving treatment access could have big impacts on #TB incidence and deaths for men, women, and children. www.nature.com/articles/s43... @kchorton.bsky.social @uofgshw.bsky.social @lightontb.bsky.social
Bar charts showing impact of interventions on TB incidence for men, women, and childrenGraphs showing impact of interventions on TB notifications in 4 countries
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CMMID @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
🗞️ Recent study with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelled the potential impact of funding cuts to TB #PublicHealth initiatives from international donors Already implemented USAID cuts could cost $7.5 billion (USD) for healthcare systems & people living with TB Read 🔽 www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...
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Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Our analysis of #TB exposure and transmission patterns is now in @pnas.org. @petedodd24.bsky.social and I found a majority of TB transmission globally is attributable to contact with adult men, while contributions to transmission by age are more variable across regions. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Rutger Bregman @rutgerbregman.com · 04/03/2026
The international boycott of ChatGPT has absolutely exploded. 2.5M people have already joined, and this is just the beginning. Go to quitgpt.org. Cancel your subscription, delete your account. And tell at least one person why. My op-ed: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
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Rebecca Clark @raclark18.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Our recent modelling study found that the estimated impact of new TB vaccines depends on the efficacy to prevent infectious asymptomatic TB. Read more in our paper out now in @plosmedicine.org! journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
journals.plos.org
Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study
Hira Tanvir and colleagues estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy and conclude that to achieve the greatest impact, vaccines must prevent asymptom...
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Reposted by Alvaro Schwalb
Finn McQuaid @cfmcquaid.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
We know conflict & crises have severe repercussions for TB; health system disruptions, displacement, food insecurity... In our latest paper we examine the effects of war in Ukraine on engagement with a digital adherence tech by people w TB & health care workers journals.theunion.org/content/ijtl...
journals.theunion.org
The effects of war on digital adherence technology engagement for TB treatment in Ukraine
SUMMARYBACKGROUNDThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted TB care. We examine the effects of the war on people with drug-susceptible TB (PWTB) and health care worker (HCW) engagement with a digital adherence technology (DAT).METHODSWe conducted a cluster-randomised trial of a DAT intervention in Ukraine. In the intervention arm, PWTB received a pillbox with a daily treatment reminder. Pillbox openings were captured real-time onto a platform, accessed by HCWs who could add manual doses where relevant. We compared DAT engagement in pre-, early-, and later-war periods.RESULTSFrom June 2021 to 2022, 816 PWTB (32% women, median age 44 years) were enrolled. DAT engagement varied across regions and time period, with a decline in engagement post-February 2022. PWTB DAT engagement was 78%–84% of treatment-days. There was a three- to four-fold increase in unknown dose or delays in manual reporting of adherence (>7 days) post-February 2022 versus pre-war in Mykolaivska and Donetska oblasts and a two-fold increase in Odeska, Lvivska, and Zakarpatska oblasts.CONCLUSIONThe war significantly disrupted DAT engagement, particularly in regions heavily affected by the conflict. Reduced engagement was likely due to migration and communication challenges. There is a critical need for resilient TB care in conflict settings.
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
8/ Huge thanks to my co-authors: @petedodd24.bsky.social, @hannahrickman.bsky.social, @cugartegil.bsky.social, @kchorton.bsky.social, and @reinhouben.bsky.social. Very happy to see this work finally out! @lshtm.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
7/ In summary, we incorporate new insights that reflect the dynamic nature of TB to provide a medically actionable estimate of the global population harbouring viable Mtb infection (tinyurl.com/mtbinfection). We urgently need tools that detect viable Mtb rather than relying on immunoreactivity.
tinyurl.com
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study
Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
6/ We observed substantial regional variability. Of all recent infections, over 87% were found in the three WHO regions of Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and Africa. At the country level, India, Indonesia, and China collectively accounted for about 50% of recent global Mtb infections.
Table showing the number of individuals globally and by WHO region infected with viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 2022
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
5/ We found that in 2022, 134 million people (95% UI: 104–171) were recently infected with Mtb, equating to 1.7% (95% UI: 1.3–2.2) of the global population. In total, 289 million people (95% UI: 242–343), or 3.7% of the global population, were estimated to harbour viable Mtb infection.
Global map showing prevalence of recent viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in 2022.
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
4/ We focused on recent infections, acknowledging that the highest risk of progression to disease occurs within two years of infection. By integrating these insights, our model generated estimates for 171 countries (covering 99.6% of the global population), all six WHO regions, and globally.
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
3/ First, we adjusted annual infection risk (ARI) trends for immunoreactivity reversion and age-specific mixing to better capture the force of infection. Second, we incorporated self-clearance of Mtb and calibrated rates using simulated infection-to-disease pathways (tinyurl.com/tbpath).
tinyurl.com
Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis | PNAS
Traditional understanding of the risk of progression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection to tuberculosis (TB) overlooks diverse present...
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
2/ One quarter of the world was estimated to have ‘latent’ TB infection (tinyurl.com/ltbinf), but this reflects immunoreactivity after exposure, not viable infection. Incorporating insights on reversion, age-specific mixing, and self-clearance, we provide estimates of viable Mtb infection.
tinyurl.com
The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling
In this mathematical modelling study, Rein Houben and colleagues provide updated estimates of latent tuberculosis infection worldwide and its implications of this reservoir with respect to goals for e...
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
1/📢 In our new publication, we estimate that in 2022, 134 million people worldwide had a recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and were at high risk of progressing to TB disease. Read the full paper in PLOS Medicine (tinyurl.com/mtbinfection). #TBSky
tinyurl.com
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study
Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...
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Finn McQuaid @cfmcquaid.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/ Projects include #1 TB & screening #2 TB & climate change #3 TB & vaccines #4 TB & influenza #5 TB & prevention @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
Information for applicants - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
MRC LID studentship information for applicants How to Apply Projects Studentship funding Studentship options Studentship...
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
What’s a #UnionConf without the TB modelling course? Packed room again for a long day of intro to modelling. @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky
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Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
The most important news of the day. #TBSky
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The Lancet Infectious Diseases @thelancetinfdis.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
New comment: Tuberculosis and undernutrition: improving estimates to reinforce the policy imperative www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Tuberculosis and undernutrition: improving estimates to reinforce the policy imperative
Undernutrition is a key driver of the global tuberculosis epidemic, increasing the risk of people developing tuberculosis disease and of poor outcomes in those who do.1 Each year, WHO publishes estima...
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chaelinkim.bsky.social @chaelinkim.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
When fluoroquinolone resistance status is unknown, empirical use of BPaLM (adding moxifloxacin to BPaL) is cost-effective as a replacement for BPaL even with high fluoroquinolone resistance levels! 🦠💊 doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org
Impact of fluoroquinolone resistance on the cost-effectiveness of empiric treatment for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis
The WHO recommends the bedaquiline, pretomanid, and linezolid (BPaL) regimen with the additional fluoroquinolone antibiotic moxifloxacin (BPaLM) for initial treatment of multidrug- or rifampicin-resis...
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Altmetric @altmetric.com · 13/10/2025
5 million of them are about research
graph showing Timelapse of 4,949,864 posts linking to research items
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