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Bella Duncan

@antarcticabella.bsky.social
1.4K followers 614 following 164 posts

Climate scientist in Aotearoa NZ. Ancient Antarctica, paleoclimate, biomarkers, geology and the implications of it all for climate change!

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Bella Duncan
Elsa @erli.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I can't stop thinking how wrong the tech bros have understood creativity and creators. Or even just having hobbies. #erliart
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Vale Peter Barrett, an extraordinary Antarctic scientist and founder of the Antarctic Research Centre at Victoria University of Wellington. Peter was an early voice in New Zealand to raise awareness of climate change, and his work changed our understanding of Antarctica and Earth's climate history.
Peter Barrett stands in front of the ice pressure ridges outside Scott Base, Antarctica.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 23/08/2026
I've heard thousands of climate denial arguments over the last few decades. But do you know they all fall into one of 5 categories? 1. It's not real 2. It's not us 3. It's not bad 4. We can't fix it 5. You can't trust the info/experts Source: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A classification tree showing the breakdown of climate denial arguments.
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Michael Mazengarb @michaelmazengarb.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Save the planet from climate change? Oh no, much too hard, we couldn't possibly spare the resources to rapidly decarbonise our energy systems. You built a somewhat mid AI model? Yes, yes, here is several trillion dollars, we will build new power stations to feed the slop monsters.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
New Zealand’s government plans to reallocate >$100m in science funding, partly justified by claims NZ “overweights” ag & environmental science vs peers, and underinvests in tech. I checked the numbers behind that claim. Some of it holds up. Most of it doesn’t. 🧵 www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/...
mbie.govt.nz
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Dr. Wendy Bohon @drwendyrocks.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Are we having more earthquakes than usual? Nope. I make some version of this video at least once or twice a year. .
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Finn Illsley-Kemp @seismologyfinn.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
This morning I spoke to RNZ about the problem of insecure work at our universities. Research staff across the country are made to work under perpetual fixed-term contracts with no clear route to secure jobs. www.rnz.co.nz/national/pro...
rnz.co.nz
What's driving the growth of "Frankenjobs" in our universities?
Researchers working in the university sector say their fixed term contracts are more like "Frankenjobs", pieced together with short term funding and limited hours.
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Te Ara Paerangi Com - Research Advocacy Capability @te-ara-paerangi.community · 03/08/2026
MSc and PhD students are the workforce in the engine room of our public research system. They are very, very cheap labor by policy design. This talk about a 'cost blowout' is utter rubbish. We frown on company owners that charge people to get a job. We should be doing the same here. #NZPOL
rnz.co.nz
Cost blowout puts fees for foreign PhD students under review
A blow-out in the cost of treating foreign PhD students like locals has prompted a rethink of the long-standing policy and a cap on spending next year.
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Rage Against the Miocene @organiccarbon.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
One of my favourite papers - and most worrying. Favourite because it was a collaboration with the wonderful Margaret Collinson. And worrying because we showed the hot climates were not associated with peatland fires. Why should that be worrying? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Nicola Gaston @nicgaston.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
I can’t find any simpler way of saying what I need to say than: when you vote, this election? Think of the children. All of them; explicitly the children you can not help in person. Other people’s children. Vote for them? 🙏
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Yesterday afternoon 14:09 in Lacanau Océan in France. A pale red sun through the smoke tinged everything in Mars style orange. Welcome in the climate emergency! Despite all denial of the fossil fuel lobby, it’s scientific fact: CO2 emissions heat up Earth & make fires worse. 🔥🔥🔥
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Yorrike. @yorrike.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Geologist here who's worked in the NZ oil and gas industry. This is bullshit.
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Rod Emmerson @rodemmerson.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
In today’s NZ Herald
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Lots of posts of rocks coming up in my feed today, but I can't possibly choose just one rock, so here's a re-up of a thread from a few years ago of some of my favourites #rockday
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Julie Blommaert @drjulieb.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
In his public life too. I love his little videos talking to animals
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Richard Easther @rjme.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Vale Sam Neill, New Zealand's top movie scientist and by all accounts a lovely man. Genuinely bereft - he was one of the best of us.
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Reposted by Bella Duncan
ℭ𝔥𝔞𝔬𝔰 ☽|☾ 𝔓𝔯𝔦𝔢𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔰𝔰 @chaospriestess.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
My favorite Sam Neil fact will always be that he designed a future Australian flag that replaces the union jack with the aboriginal flag for Event Horizon and insisted the film use it.
Screencap of Sam Neil in Event Horizon, his flight suit features an Australian flag with the union jack replaced by a yellow circle on black and red, the Australian aboriginal flag
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A.R. Moxon @juliusgoat.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Best “remove glasses to look at something unbelievable” in cinema history.
static.klipy.com
Jurassic Park: Dr. Grant's Surprise
Alt: Jurassic Park: Dr. Grant's Surprise
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Dr. Cassandra Mudgway @legallyfeminist.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Cancel everything for a week of mourning and make it a state funeral. Rip Sam Neill, the guy who made us all want to dig up dinasour bones but not conservation land x
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acid corbyn dallas @acidcorbyn.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Feed the bees, pet the duck, try to show a little respect around the chickens. RIP
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Mānawatia a Matariki! I hope it's been a special day with whānau. Too wet for our usual bonfire this year but we had a special, quiet day together and celebrated with star apple pie ✨️
An apple pie decorated with pastry star cut outs, just about to go in the oven.
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Felix Elling @lipidorama.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Check out our new community-level review of archaeal lipids in marine systems, with a focus on paleoenvironmental reconstruction
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Ronnie Rattanasriampaipong @paleolipidrr.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Excited to see this review paper published! OpenAccess: doi.org/10.1029/2025... We provide an updated view on the applications of archaeal lipids as environmental proxies. Shoutouts to our co-lead authors @climategordon.bsky.social and @lipidorama.bsky.social for spearheading on this.
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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 03/07/2026
Holes xkcd.com/3266/
Comic: Holes. Elevation is to scale relative to sea level and ground level. Land shapes and horizontal distances are not to scale. [Lines for every 1k meters starting from -12k up to +4k: Bingham Canyon Mine (US), Veryovkina Cave (Georgia), MPONENG Gold Mine (South Africa), Sanford Laboratory (US), Giant Crystal Cave (Mexico), Derinkugo Underground City (Turkey), WIPP (US), Restof Salt Mine, with an arrow pointing at the bottom that reads “oops” (US), San Andreas Fault Observatory Borehole (US) CFB North Bay (Canada), Woodingdean Water Well (dug by hand) (United Kingdom), Diefen-Bunker (Canada), Deep Underground Command Center (Canceled in 1965) (US), Lake Peigneu, with another oops arrow next to it (US), Sydney Opera House Parking (Australia), Onkalo Spent Nuclear Fuel Repository (Finland), Hudson River, Delaware Aqueduct (US), Raven Rock (US), Wieliczka and Bochina Salt Mines (Poland), Atchison Storage Facility (US), Snolab (Canada), Detroit Salt Mine (US), Hongyancun Subway Station (China), Nuclear Test Shafts (North Korea), Super Kamiokande Neutrino Detector (Japan), Gran Sasso Laboratory (Italy), Peak above Gran Sasso, Modane Laboratory (France), Peak above Modane Laboratory, Gotthard Tunnel (Switzerland), Peak above Cheyenne Bunker and Gotthard Tunnel, Cheyenne Mountain Bunker (US), Kola Superdeep Borehole (Russia) - deepest artificial point below surface at -11917m, Lake Baikal (Russia), sediments under Lake Baikal, IDDP-2 Borehole (Iceland), Dead Sea (multiple countries), Ryfylke Tunnel (Norway), Pantal Remis Mine with another oops arrow (Malaysia), Great Blue Hole (Belize), Joides Resolution Expedition 307 (Atlantic Ocean), Deepwater Horizon Borehole (Gulf of Mexico) - deepest artificial point below sea level at -11944m, Glomar Challenger Hole 504B (Pacific Ocean), Mohole (Pacific Ocean), Joides Resolution Expedition 329 (Pacific Ocean), Mariana Trench (Pacific Ocean)]
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CosmicRami 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ @rami.spaceaustralia.com · 02/07/2026
"He’s bypassing barricades, crushing fences, lying on roads and bashing into at least one parked car." “He’s broken fences, he’s harassing people’s cars ....” There is a 1-tonne seal, named Neil, that is the deliverer of chaos and destruction to Tasmania. An excellent character.
theguardian.com
A 1,000kg mammal is wreaking havoc in Tasmania – and Neil the seal is loved for it
The elephant seal has been crushing fences, blocking traffic and bashing into parked cars, in what experts say is play-fighting behaviour
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 28/06/2026
On average, global ocean temperatures right now are the hottest in our historical records for this time of year! Follow along at zacklabe.com/climate-chan... 🌊
Graph showing daily global mean sea surface temperatures for 2026. This is also compared to the daily data from the 1981-2010 average and 1991-2020 average. Annotations are also shown to the current year with the other years from 1940 to 2026. There is a seasonal cycle. There is a long-term warming trend. 2023 and 2024 are also indicated, which were the warmest years on record. Data is from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and updated through 15 June 2026.
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Nick Golledge @nick-golledge.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
My news feed has the best "tale of 2 hemispheres" juxtaposition today - extreme weather both north & south. But it can't be anything to do with climate change, right? #polycrisis
Screenshot of 2 news headlines, one about winter storms in New Zealand, the other about the deadly heatwave in Europe.
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
This article is 💯 spot on!! I also can't get over the numbers in the transition fund. NO early career funding for anything other than Technology for Prosperity, and $6.2 million in total for Healthy people and a thriving society. That's less than the value of one of Luxon's houses.
Table showing annual funding in the transition fund, replacing Marsden and Endeavours for this coming year. Primary industry and bioeconomy has $0 for talent development, $8.7 million for projects and $10.6 mill for programmes. Technology for prosperity has $12.3 million, $20 million for projects and $11.2 million for programmes. Environmental sustainability and resilience has $0 for talent development, $7.6 million for projects and $8.2 million for programmes. Healthy people and a thriving society has $0 for talent development, $4.6 million for projects and $1.6 million for programmes.
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Cate Macinnis-Ng @loraxcate.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
"Measuring the value of our science system via what we commercialise is a huge misunderstanding of how science works." Absolute 🔥🔥 by @peterkdearden.bsky.social Must read for anyone interested in a prosperous future for Aotearoa. #NZPol
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Dr Bex @drbex.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Let me present to you, the scientist creator of insulin, who did a "piece of science" and gave it away, for free, to save lives:
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Simon J. Greenhill @simongreenhill.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
New Zealand Science: Step 1: cut science funding. Step 2: be baffled there's nothing to commercialise. Step 3: blame the professors. #nzpol
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Peter Dearden @peterkdearden.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
on the destruction of New Zealand Science open.substack.com/pub/peterkde...
open.substack.com
on the destruction of New Zealand Science
and earthquakes
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
On the destruction of New Zealand science peterkdearden.substack.com/p/on-the-des...
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Richard Easther @rjme.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
The New Zealand Institute of Physics has its AGM today. I have to write a president's report. This is part of it.
Fourthly, the recent changes to the science system and our science funding are going to have  a generational impact on research in New Zealand. From one perspective our discipline stands to do well; “space”, “quantum” and “AI” are all favoured areas in the new scheme, and all of these have a big component of “physics” – it is worth remembering that key AI technologies were awarded the physics Nobel, and it is a reminder that the impact of our discipline is often felt far beyond its immediate domain. On top of that, our Prime Minister said on Thursday (25 June) that he wanted to see professors become millionaires. So as both a professor and a physicist you might expect that I would be happy. 

In reality, though, I am deeply concerned that the government does not have the competence or vision needed to make good decisions – the idea that public support for science leads to better outcomes for the community (both economically and more broadly) is one that I, and the Institute, fully embraces – delivering these benefits is one of our core objects as an organisation. However, it is not clear to me that the current government policy settings will achieve their stated goals and in many ways they appear to work against them. 

We will continue to speak on this but we are being buffeted by forces that are much larger than us.  And it is striking that while funding systems in the United States are similarly in turmoil the total change  until now in the United States is less dramatic than it has been in New Zealand – but there it is the focus of heated debate, whereas many of the changes here have been poorly signalled and are receiving little attention in the media.
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Jeff Shima @drjeffshima.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Dream job alert: Terrestrial vertebrate biologist/ecologist (tenure-track) in New Zealand! Join us @ Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington. Lecturer ≈ US Assistant Prof. NZ lifestyle, weird animals, & great colleagues Apply here: tinyurl.com/mubu7np8
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 25/06/2026
this right here is why New Zealand is going to lose a generation, or more, of scientific talent — and will probably also contribute to Luxon losing his job #nzpol
"To give you a feel for R&D (research and development) in New Zealand, we're probably 19th per capita in terms of our spend on R&D, but we're 46th on commercialisation. And I just hate it when I run into people and they go, 'Oh, New Zealand invented a piece of science.' You go, 'That's lovely, sunshine, but actually who invented the $10 billion business?' And it'll be some American or some Australian that gets to do that."

Luxon said the goal was to "brutally commercialise our science system".

"I want professors to become millionaires because they're partnering with entrepreneurs and building out businesses ... where that interface between universities and entrepreneurship and government is all joined up, like we see in other parts of the world too."
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
'"Luxon said the goal was to "brutally commercialise our science system". "I want professors to become millionaires because they're partnering with entrepreneurs and building out businesses...' I can't imagine a statement that less understands why people become scientists.
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Nick Golledge @nick-golledge.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Just out in @natgeosci.nature.com we use ice sheet modeling to identify & characterize behavioral regimes, & the nature of ice sheet regime shifts. We do this using the Shannon entropy signature of mass loss, and find evidence of bistability under high, but not low, entropy regimes. rdcu.be/fmIe1
rdcu.be
Ice-sheet regime shifts with climate warming
Nature Geoscience - Ice sheets are steady in cold climates, become unstable as warming weakens ice shelves, then restabilize at higher temperatures. Model simulations suggest sudden shifts between...
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 03/06/2026
a quirk of killing the Marsden and replacing it with an MBIE-run fund is that MBIE caps the number of apps-per-university for their larger grants the Marsden was an even field: any academic could apply. if its replacement has caps, it further restricts our scientists' ability to fund their labs
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David Cormack @davidcormack.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
well that's all i need to know.
the last section of the herald's budget coverage has the heading "Child poverty targets will be missed, Government unlikely to meet first Paris climate goal"
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
"But I am going to insist that the fact we are poor – that we struggle to pay for the basic needs of our society, and with increasing difficulty – is because we have underinvested in the scientific ecosystem over many decades." @nicgaston.bsky.social
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 28/05/2026
So what's the bottom line? What does the science tell us that we know, without a shadow of a doubt, about the future? Not which scenario is "right" -- because none of them are. They are just pictures of possible futures demonstrating the outcome of plausible human choices. This is what we KNOW ⬇
A graphic summarizing the conclusion of the IPCC 1.5C report: every action matters, every bit of warming matters, every year matters, every choice matters. By Kate Schott (TNC) on my direction.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 28/05/2026
RCP and SSP scenarios are not emission scenarios. I repeat: they are not emission scenarios. They are radiative forcing scenarios. Forcing = human emissions + the response of the climate system to those emissions You can only back out emissions by making assumptions about climate sensitivity.
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The Conversation AUNZ @aunz.theconversation.com · 21/05/2026
The companies that drilled these cores decades ago couldn’t have known the scientific treasures inside.
theconversation.com
Tiny fossils found in 1.7 billion-year-old mud yield clues to the evolution of complex life
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Dr Bex @drbex.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Well that's our first year uni student totally screwed over then - and all first and second year students tbh. Student Loans are a hardship to pay off, leave our young people saddled with debt, make it harder to build capital & create poorer social outcomes www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
rnz.co.nz
Fees-free university scheme to be scrapped in upcoming Budget, Nicola Willis confirms
Finance minister Nicola Willis said students completing study this year remain eligible.
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Marc Daalder @marcdaalder.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
I've also written up an analysis on the implications of these findings for MPs: The report must be a wake-up call to politicians. Decisions around cost-sharing and managed retreat may be unpopular, but kicking the can down the road is an abdication of responsibility. newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/07/t...
newsroom.co.nz
The best time to start adapting was yesterday. The next best is now
Comment: The National Climate Change Risk Assessment must be a wake-up call to politicians to put an end to years of passing the buck on adaptation, writes Marc Daalder.
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Marc Daalder @marcdaalder.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Good morning! The Climate Change Commission has just released the first National Climate Change Risk Assessment in six years – and I've read the key document. In short: Climate change is here, we're not ready, but there's lots we can do to prepare. For more: newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/07/l...
newsroom.co.nz
Landmark report finds climate harming NZ now, will worsen with inaction
A major new report on the risks climate change poses to New Zealand has found targeted action now could avert the worst impacts, Marc Daalder reports
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Bella Duncan @antarcticabella.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Castlepoint is looking a bit different after a big storm stripped away a heap of sand and exposed these folded turbidites! I *think* these are the Whakataki formation, ~20 million years old. Overlain by incredible 2.4 million year old limestone of the reef. One of my favourite places in the world 🥰
Layered siltstones and sandstones on a shore platform at Castlepoint Beach New Zealand. In the background is the ocean and an exposed cliffs and 'castle' hill made of limestone. The layered rocks are approx. 20 millions years old while the limestone is much younger, 2.4 million years.
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Dr Lucy Stewart @lcsnz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Time for my yearly update on how we're doing in AoNZ vis-a-vis PhD stipends (poorly). I use the Marsden Fund PhD and Masters stipends as the benchmark because they are at the *top* end of what is offered, btw. 🧪
A line graph showing the value of the Aotearoa NZ living wage, minimum wage, training wage, and Marsden Fund Masters and PhD stipends as dollars in the hand per week, from 2010-2026. The PhD stipend is only just above the training wage and the Masters stipend is well below it.
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Nicola Gaston @nicgaston.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Decided to update my reckons on the science system reforms this week. Tl;dr they haven’t changed, BUT
newsroom.co.nz
This divide and conquer nonsense undermines trust in our scientists
Comment from Auckland University: ‘Accountability’ is wielded against scientists, while politicians and bureaucrats are shielded
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