Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 02/10/20261/ SPX multi-decade trend channel offers three scenarios: 1) Imminent mean reversion; 2) Mean reversion following further overshoot, perhaps in the form of a classic Q4 rally; and 3) Durable new advance altering multi-decade behavior. 🧵 150
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Bonds explained in just ten words. Kudos Jim Bianco! 062
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Constructive $SOX setup into $MU post-market report. Upside resolution could spark a classic Q4 advance. 050
Reposted by Mark UngewitterMark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 02/07/2025"I don't take the market personally and it doesn't take me the same." –Peter L. Brandt 041
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Note to self. Today’s price/breadth configuration doesn’t preclude bull-market continuation, but does suggest exit planning. 080
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Here’s a neat trick for those wishing to track high yield spreads on StockCharts. Because HYGH hedges HYG’s Treasury risk, plotting it inversely on a price-only basis (using -_HYGH) closely matches BofA’s high yield OAS index. 060
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Human nature never changes, but are panicked humans currently fleeing stocks or bonds? 🤔 250
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Signing off early. Great weekend, everyone! www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK-h...youtube.com"Walking on Broken Glass" by Annie Lennox - PigPen Cover SeriesYouTube video by PigPenTheatreCo 190
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026RASI alert. Great article from Tom McClellan, explaining its origins and function. www.mcoscillator.com/learning_cen...mcoscillator.comRASI Shows Depth of Correction - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial 040
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 24/09/20261/ HGX may be the most important chart that nobody is talking about. Don’t neglect the housing sector given its outsized role in the market economy. 1132
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Geek note: Zweig Breadth Thrust is virtually foreclosed, as it requires A/(A+D) to average ~93% today and tomorrow. Comment: ZBT typically signals new advances, but new advances don't require ZBT. 040
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026With all eyes on crypto, don’t neglect gold. Fidelity’s liquidity model projects $5k or higher. 081
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Comment: Renewed AI leadership would support the bullish case heading into seasonably favorable Q4. 160
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Sharply decelerating breadth near a multi-year high has sometimes attended important tops, underscoring the need for risk management in today’s setting. 0121
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Plausible argument for fresh 4-year-cycle advance. Breakout threshold resides near 83k from a technical perspective. 151
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Upside resolution of Aug/Sep pullback would imply that seasonal headwinds are exhausted. Thank you, Captain Obvious? 050
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026According to Edwards and Magee, pattern gaps that occur within congestion have less forecasting significance than breakout or continuation gaps. Pattern gaps, though, are more apt to develop in consolidation than in reversal formations. Perhaps relevant to SPY and QQQ today. 170
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Checking in with my old pal Zahorchak reveals a market vulnerable to washout. The best signals have occurred when +10 renewal followed -10 washout. No guarantees, of course, and yes, the indicator is flawed. But remember, it's September. 050
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 14/09/2026ZBT setups – a.k.a. sharply oversold internals – occur near important bottoms but also near important tops. Best to wait for an actual signal, or some other sign of strength. 080
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 13/09/2026U.S. versus non-U.S. is essentially about tech weighting. At least by this reckoning. 041
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Nascent single-bar island reversals, SPY and QQQ, for those who celebrate. 060
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026“Charts are the closest you will get to inside information.” –Aksel Kibar, CMT 040
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026CPI dead ahead. YoY consensus: 3.4% nominal, 2.4% core. Typically a volatility event, not a game changer, in my experience. 031
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Don’t rule out an Autumn thrust, but also acknowledge its remote probability, as just 2% of setups have produced signals since 1960. 050
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 10/09/2026In my opinion, Warsh flubbed his chance to establish credibility at the July FOMC meeting. Now, even a 50bp hike seems inadequate, given 2-year Treasury yield above 4.50%. 3130
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Markets alternates between range expansion and range contraction. Resolution of current sideways should provide the next directional clue. 050
Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Interesting condition attending important tops. Note: Acknowledging a condition is: 1) not equivalent to calling a top; and 2) not inconsistent with trend following. 0141
